ABSTRACT The problem of interest rate risk exposure has become increasingly important for financial institutions. There is a direct relation between the duration of life insurance products and its present value sensitivity to changes in market interest rates. This article describes the historical development of duration and its application in the study of life insurance products. This study examines the interest rate risk exposure of life insurance products.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T16:44:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Marli Helena Colangelo Mantovani.pdf: 858356 bytes, checksum: 8738966ab8f6867b3af25f7ccb67086a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-07-31 / The banking sector has prominent position in the economy, dealing with financial resources, providing innovative solutions and mainly by the constant pursuit of increase profitability. There are many reasons for greater profitability of banks, as the high competition in the sector and the pressures of managers for higher returns through riskier operations. Although there are some academic studies on capital structure and profitability of banks, the explanation of leverage and its relationship with banks profitability is still an open question. This paper explores the empirical relevance of the relationship between leverage and profitability of Brazilian banks. It is an empirical research, which seeks to raise exploratory directions, pointing out degrees of correlations, measured by estimation with panel data. The results of this work, based on sample of Brazilian banks listed on the Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo, showed significant relationships between indicators of leverage and profitability indicators. Some considerations are suggested to justify the results achieved, as the increased volumes in funding costs in relation to the total equity ratio and the Capital Adequacy Ratio, that have influenced in a positive way the income on equity / O setor bancário possui cada vez mais posição de destaque na economia, por lidar com recursos financeiros, por sempre proporcionar inovações e principalmente pela busca constante do aumento da rentabilidade. Muitas são as razões da busca por maior rentabilidade, como a alta concorrência do setor e as pressões dos administradores por maiores retornos através de operações mais arriscadas. Embora já existam alguns estudos acadêmicos sobre estrutura de capital e rentabilidade dos bancos, a alavancagem bancária e sua relação com variáveis de rentabilidade ainda é uma questão em aberto. Esta dissertação explora a relevância empírica da relação entre alavancagem e rentabilidade dos bancos brasileiros. Trata-se de uma pesquisa empírica, a qual procura levantar indicações exploratórias, evidenciadas por graus de correlações, mensurados através de estimação com dados em painel. Os resultados encontrados neste trabalho, com base em amostra composta por bancos brasileiros listados na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo, evidenciaram relações significativas entre os indicadores de alavancagem e os indicadores de rentabilidade. Algumas considerações são sugeridas para justificar os resultados alcançados, como os aumentos no volume de custo de captação, na relação patrimônio total e ativo total e no índice da Basiléia, que influenciaram de forma positiva o lucro líquido sobre o patrimônio líquido

Este trabalho apresenta uma abordagem via programação estocástica linear para a tomada de decisão de investimento em um fundo de pensão com plano de benefícios do tipo benefício definido. Propõe-se uma nova metodologia para a definição da alocação da carteira do fundo no instante inicial baseada na média de vários cenários econômicos gerados aleatoriamente. Como exemplo de aplicação, essa metodologia é utilizada para resolver o problema da alocação inicial da carteira de um grande fundo de pensão brasileiro e a alocação inicial obtida é avaliada em termos da probabilidade de insolvência e VaR, valor em risco, do fundo no instante final do horizonte de planejamento de investimento. / This paper presents an approach via linear stochastic programming for investment decision making in a defined benefit pension fund plan. It proposes a new methodology for defining the allocation of the portfolio at the initial time based on the average of several randomly generated economic scenarios. As an illustrative example, this methodology is used to solve the problem of portfolio initial allocation of a large Brazilian pension fund and the obtained initial allocation is evaluated in terms of funds probability of default and VaR, Value-at-Risk, at the final time of the investment planning horizon.

Submitted by Marcia Silva (marcia@latec.uff.br) on 2016-05-31T17:41:46Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissert Priscila Trasmontano.pdf: 1950311 bytes, checksum: 154b35c59601c895b9e38b78d4b66fd7 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-05-31T17:41:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissert Priscila Trasmontano.pdf: 1950311 bytes, checksum: 154b35c59601c895b9e38b78d4b66fd7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-12-08 / A volatilidade do Mercado Econômico Mundial motivou empresas e instituições públicas e privadas, principalmente financeiras, a se precaverem diante de um cenário instável. E neste contexto, muitos bancos passaram a implementar a Gestão de Ativos e Passivos – ALM, a fim de mitigar os riscos possíveis, e maximizar a lucratividade. Frente às dificuldades de compreensão sobre a implementação da ALM nas instituições financeiras brasileiras, por parte dos gestores financeiros para a tomada de decisões estratégicas pela alta administração; e visto como a internalização da cultura de ALM encontra-se pouco difundida na literatura nacional; assim como há carência de profissionais habilitados para lidar com o tema; este estudo propõe, enquanto situação problema: Quais recursos gerenciais promovem a implantação da ALM e que transversalmente evitam futuros problemas no interior das instituições financeiras brasileiras? Portanto, tem-se por objetivo geral investigar de que forma as instituições financeiras brasileiras estão se organizando para estruturar a ALM. E por objetivos específicos: Realizar um levantamento bibliográfico acerca da ALM; Desenvolver um estudo de caso sobre ALM, embasado na realidade das instituições financeiras brasileiras, a partir do relato dos participantes da pesquisa; Apresentar os elementos essenciais para o êxito da implantação da ALM nas instituições financeiras brasileiras e eventuais impasses. Adotou-se por recurso metodológico, um Estudo de Casos Múltiplos, pesquisa exploratória qualitativa, a partir de uma pesquisa de percepção de especialistas que atuam no mercado brasileiro com o tema em bancos e fundos de pensão. Averiguou-se como elementos fundamentais ao modelo de ALM a multiperiodicidade (previsão de acontecimentos), considerações simultâneas dos ativos e passivos, e restrições legais e políticas. Em relação aos dados apreendidos para a implantação, os que receberam maior destaque foram: a identificação dos ativos que a instituição pode investir potencialmente, a estimativa do retorno desses ativos, restrições legais pertinentes, parâmetros usados no desenvolvimento das restrições de liquidez e restrições políticas adotadas pela instituição / The World Economic Market volatility prompted businesses and public and private entities, especially financial ones, to take preventive measures in the face of an unstable scenario. In this context, many banks began to implement the Asset and Liability Management – ALM, in order to mitigate possible risks, and maximize profitability. In view of the difficulties in understanding the implementation of ALM in Brazilian financial institutions shown by financial managers in order to support strategic decision-making by senior management; given that internalizing the culture of ALM is not widespread in national literature, and that there is a shortage of qualified professionals to deal with the topic, this study proposes the following problem situation: which managerial resources promote the implementation of ALM and avoid future problems within Brazilian financial institutions? Thus, our overall objective is to investigate how Brazilian financial institutions are structuring the ALM. The specific objectives are: to conduct a bibliographic survey on ALM; to develop a case study on ALM, grounded in the experience of Brazilian financial institutions, based on accounts by research participants; to introduce the essential elements for the successful implementation of ALM in Brazilian financial institutions and possible deadlocks. The methodological resource adopted was a Multiple Case Study with qualitative exploratory research based on a perception survey from Brazilian market specialists that deal with this subject in banks and pension funds. Ascertained the main elements to ALM model were the multiperiodicity (forecast events), simultaneous considerations of assets and liabilities, legal and policy constraints. For data required to implement it, those who was highlighted: the identification of assets in which the institution can potentially invest, point estimates of the return on these assets, pertinent legal constraints, parameters used in the development of liquidity constraints and policy constraints adopted by the institution.

[pt] Todos os investidores, indivíduos e instituições, possuem obrigações e objetivos financeiros futuros. Por esse motivo, devem tomar decisões de investimento que sirvam a tais propósitos, considerando os riscos a que estão sujeitos. Com a finalidade de auxiliar o processo decisório, pode-se lançar mão de políticas de investimento ótimo, como a Gerência de Ativos e Passivos (Asset and Liability Management - ALM), objeto do presente estudo. O ALM é uma forma de combinar os ativos e passivos dos investidores, buscando alcançar as suas finalidades em termos financeiros. No que se refere aos investidores individuais, tema abordado neste trabalho, os supracitados objetivos podem corresponder, por exemplo, à aposentadoria almejada, bem como aos gastos com a educação dos filhos. Sendo assim, o presente estudo propõe apresentar uma metodologia de otimização sob incerteza, por meio da utilização de programação estocástica e técnicas de otimização de portfolio, aplicadas ao problema de gerenciamento de ativos e passivos de um investidor individual. O estudo tem como enfoque um modelo de programação linear multiperíodo, desenvolvido por Consiglio, Cocco e Zenios (2002), o qual maximiza a riqueza esperada do investidor no final do horizonte de planejamento, dado o nível de tolerância ao risco do indivíduo. Esse modelo será validado através da variação dos níveis de aversão ao risco do investidor, dos horizontes de planejamento e do retorno alvo desejado pelo investidor para ser alcançado no período final. / [en] All investors, individuals and institutions, have obligations and financial future goals. For this reason, they should make investment decisions that serve this purpose considering the risks they face. To assist in making decisions, it is possible to use the optimal investment policies, as the Asset and Liability Management, object of this work. The ALM, as is known, is a way to combine the assets and liabilities of investors seeking to achieve their goals in financial terms. In the case of individuals investors these goals can be seen as the individual s retirement and children s tuition. The present work proposes a methodology for optimization under uncertainty, employing both stochastic programming and portfolio optimization techniques, applied to the problem of managing assets and liabilities for an individual investor. The study is focused on a multi-period linear programming model developed by Consiglio, Cocco and Zenios (2002), which maximizes the expected wealth of the investor at the end of the planning horizon, given the individual s risk tolerance level. This model will be validated through the variation of the risk aversion level, the planning horizons and the target return that should be achieved on the final period.

本研究運用Vasecik、ARMA與VEC三種時間序列模型，以蒙地卡羅法，模擬未來五年台幣利率、美元利率與新台幣兌美元匯率的隨機漫步過程，並分析壽險公司的資產、負債與業主權益價值，在利率與匯率的隨機過程中所受到的影響。 藉由蒙地卡羅模擬之隨機漫步過程，本研究發現在利率模型方面，Vasicek利率模型因具有均數回歸的特性，較VEC模型擁有更穩定的隨機漫步過程；在匯率模型方面，VEC模型因同時考量長期影響與短期影響的效果，較ARMA模型擁有較穩定的漫步過程。 在負債面的模擬結果中，當利率下跌時，保單應提列準備金價值的成長速度較利率上升時快，此點反應壽險公司在低利率的環境下，將面臨較嚴峻的資本要求；同時，藉由歷史資料以Vasicek債券評價模型估計之利率期間結構，整體結構呈現負斜率與凹口向上的走勢，在此情形下，短期利率的值較長期利率的值高，保單應提列的準備金價值較原始估計時更高。 在長期的低利率環境中，上述現象反應於長期保單的價值變化尤為明顯。本研究建議在進行保單的精算訂價時，不應僅以預定利率做為保單全期的折現因子，而應將長期的利率風險納入考量。 同時，匯率的變化亦嚴重衝擊壽險公司的業主權益，在模擬結果中，當匯率落於風險值時，壽險公司配置於美元資產的減損將造成業主權益呈現虧損，此點亦反應當壽險公司將資產配置於海外時，必須謹慎地評估外匯避險的相關策略。 整體而言，在本研究中，將資產配置偏重台幣的投資策略擁有較穩定的業主權益價值，並在短期擁有較佳的風險轉換報酬能力；另一方面，將資產配置偏重美元的投資策略在長期擁有較佳的風險轉換報酬能力，然而，也因其擁有較高的風險值，壽險公司可能面臨較嚴重的損失。本研究建議壽險公司在進行海外資產配置時，應謹慎地將利率風險與匯率風險納入考量。 / This article uses Monte Carlo simulation method to forecast the random walk process of Taiwan interest rate, US interest rate, and Taiwan US dollar exchange rate between next five years. The simulation base on three time series model：Vasecik, ARMA and VEC. Through the random walk process, this article aims to analyze the influence in asset, liability and equity by the change of interest rate and exchange rate. In this paper, we find that the Vasicek interest rate model has a more stable stochastic process than the VEC model, which because of the effect by mean reversion. On the other hand, because the VEC exchange rate model takes both long-term and short-term impact in concern, it has a more robust stochastic process than the ARMA model. Through the simulation results of the liabilities, we find that when the interest rate fell, the reserve value of insurance policy will rise faster, which makes life insurance companies face more severe capital requirements in the low interest rate environment. Besides, we also find that the interest rate term structure in the Vasicek Bond Pricing Model displays negative slopes with concave upward, which means the value of short-term interest rate higher than the value of long-term interest rate. In this situation, the reserve value of insurance policy will become much higher than the value original priced. In the long-term low interest rate environment, the impact of interest rate risk has more effect in the long-term insurance policy. This paper suggests that when pricing the costs of insurance policy, we should not only use one interest rate as the full term discount factor. The better way is to discount with the interest rate term structure. Overall, in this paper, the asset allocation strategy, which focus on Taiwan commercial bonds, has both better performances in value at risk and better ability to covert risk into revenue in the short term. On the other hand, the asset allocation strategy, which focus on US commercial bonds, has better ability to covert risk into revenue in the long run. When conducting overseas asset allocation, we suggest that life insurance companies should carefully consider interest rate risk and exchange rate risk.

Parmi l’ensemble des organisations, les banques ont trois caractéristiques majeures : la prééminence des calculs dans la définition des cours de l’action de l’organisation ; la construction de mécanismes d’examen et de contrôle du comportement de leurs clients qui sont, en termes comptables, leurs actifs ; un rôle essentiel dans le cadrage des comportements économiques dans les sociétés modernes. Ainsi, tous les projets bancaires se construisent à partir des calculs mais aussi au travers de paradigmes liés à l’économie politique et aux injonctions morales qui leur sont concomitantes. Cette thèse se propose de contribuer à la connaissance des pratiques bancaires et de leur rôle dans la construction d’individus gouvernés par une certaine raison économique. Pour ce faire nous nous sommes intéressés à l’histoire socio-technique de la Banque Populaire et pour le développement communautaire du Costa Rica. Nous avons construit cette histoire à trois niveaux différents. D’abord le niveau des ‘discours du gouvernement’ qui a été étudié grâce à la consultation d’archives portant sur les discussions des lois définissant le cadre normatif de la Banque à l’Assemblée législative du Costa Rica. L’analyse de ces discussions nous a permis d’identifier cinq rationalités politiques se disputant l’hégémonie pour définir les conceptions de contrôle de l’organisation au cours de son histoire. Puis, nous nous sommes intéressés au niveau de la prise de décision stratégique. Nous l’avons étudié grâce à la consultation des comptes rendus portant sur des disputes concernant la gestion actif-passif de la banque de 1969 à 2010. Lors de l’analyse de ces discussions nous avons montré comment interagissent les technologies de calcul avec les rationalités politiques identifiées au premier niveau de la recherche et les trajectoires sociales et politiques des administrateurs participant dans les disputes. Ainsi, nous avons montré les modalités par lesquelles se déplacent les épreuves de justification permettant d’arriver à des accords sur le budget de crédit de la banque. Enfin, le troisième niveau de la thèse est une reconstruction historique des dispositifs d’évaluation des demandeurs de crédit. Au cours de cette partie nous montrons les relations qui existent entre la manière d’équilibrer le bilan et les formes d’évaluation et valorisation des demandeurs de crédit. Notre recherche s’inscrit dans la ligne des travaux portant sur une étude de l’économie politique par les instruments de gestion. Elle discute avec les études gouvernementalistes en comptabilité et propose un déplacement dans la manière de comprendre le déploiement de la rationalité économique dans le fonctionnement des organisations. / In the world of organizations, banks are characterized by three particular elements: the preeminence of calculations in defining the course of action of the organization; building control and evaluation devices for customers, who, in accounting terms, are their assets; the key role they play in the dissemination of economic rationality in society. Therefore, all banks are based on calculations, and also on paradigms from political economy and its implicit moral imperatives. However, relations between these constitutive dimensions of the banking practices have been little explored by research in accounting. The aim of this work is to contribute to a better knowledge of banking practices and its role in the construction of individuals governed by economic reason. To this end, this work was conducted with close reference to the social and technical history of a particular banking organization, Costa Rica’s Banco Popular y de Desarrollo Comunal (BPDC). The case study has three levels. First, the “governmental discourse” level, which we studied through systematic analysis of the original files and amendments of the organic law of BPDC. In this analysis we identified five political rationales that have historically disputed hegemony in the definition of the conception of control of the organization. Secondly, we studied the level of strategic decision, emphasizing the conflicts linked to the management of assets and liabilities. In this part we put in evidence the relationship between calculative technologies and political rationales identified in the previous level and we show the ways in which the evidence of justification was displaced to reach agreements and make decisions. Finally, the third level of the study has to do with the interaction between the borrowers and the organization. To address it, we reconstructed the history of the devices used to evaluate the borrowers. Thus, we show the relationship between ways of resolving conflicts at the strategic level of the organization and ways to assess credit risk. This work is related to current research trends that study relationships between political economy and management tools. Its aim is to discuss with governmentality studies in accounting. Its main contribution is the construction of a different approach to understand the way in which economic rationality is diffused into the functioning of organizations.

Depuis une dizaine d'années, une part croissante de fonds de pension rencontrent des difficultés financières. Cette détérioration a soulevé des questions sur la gestion de ces institutions et sur l'efficacité du cadre réglementaires. Cette thèse a pour objet d'analyser les comportements financiers et la gestion des risques opérés par les fonds de pension à prestation définies et les institutions assimilées. En premier lieu, nous relions les choix d'investissement à la question du contrôle managériale. Notre analyse suggère que la bonne gestion des fonds de pension nécessite un partage optimal des droits de contrôle entre les participants du plan et l'entreprise sponsor. Nous montrons alors comment cette répartition affecte les décisions d'investissement. Notre seconde analyse étudie l'impact des fluctuations financières sur la gestion des fonds de pension. Nos résultats suggèrent que le cadre réglementaire actuel conduit à de larges effets pro-cycliques, en particulier sur les exigences de capital et les décisions d'investissement. Finalement, nous analysons comment les changement structurels de la mortalité affectent le risque et les politiques de risque des fonds de pension. / Since ten years, an increasing proportion of pension funds faces to severe financial difficulties, addressing some questions about the management of these institutions and the effectiveness of the regulatory framework. This thesis aims to analyze the investment decisions and financial risk management made by the pension fund defined benefit and assimilated institutions, in order to address some advances for the regulation purpose. First, we address the question of the pension funds management by analyzing the implications of the managerial control problem. Our analysis suggests that the efficient management may require an optimal splitting of control rights between plan participants and the sponsoring company. We then show how this splitting of right controls can affects investment decisions in pension funds. Second, we analyze the implications of financial cycles for pension fund management. Our results suggest that the regulatory framework produces large pro-cyclical, including regime-dependent capital requirement and regime-dependent investment decisions. Finally, we analyze how the structural change in mortality affect the risk and the risk management of pension funds.

[pt] Esta tese é composta por quatro artigos que descrevem diferentes formas de inclusão de aversão a risco em problemas dinâmicos, ressaltando seus aspectos teóricos e consequências práticas envolvidas em técnicas de otimização sob incerteza aplicadas a problemas financeiros. O primeiro artigo propões uma interpretação econômica e analisa as consequencias práticas da consistência temporal, em que particular para o problema de seleção de portfólio. No segunfo artigo, também aplicado à seleção de portfólio, é proposto um modelo que considera empréstimo como variável de decisão e uma função convexa e linear por partes que representa a existência de diversos credores com diferentes limites de crédito e taxas de juros. A performance do modelo proposto é melhor que as aproximações existentes e garante otimalidade para a situação de vários credores. No terceiro artigo, desenvolve-se um modelo de emissão de títulos de dívida de uma empresa que seja financiar um conjunto pré-determinado de projetos. Trata-se de um modelo de otimização dinâmico sob incerteza que considera títulos pré e pós-fixados com diferentes maturidades e formas de amortização. As principais contribuições são o tratammento de um horizonte longuíssimo prazo através de uma estrutura híbrida dos cenários; a modelagem detalhada do pagamento de cupons e amortizações; o desenvolvimento de uma função objetivo multi-critério que reflete o trade-off entre risco-retorno além de outras medidas de performance financeiras como a taxa de alavancagem (razão passivos sobre ativos). No quarto artigo é desenvolvido um modelo de programação estocástica multi-estágio para obter a política ótima de caixa de uma empresa cujo custo de investimento e o custo da dívida são incertos e modelados em diferentes regimes. As contribuições são a extensão de metodologia de equilíbrio dual para um modelo estocástico; a proposição de uma regra de decisão baseada na estrutura de regime dos fatores de risco que aproxima de forma satisfatória o modelo original. / [en] This PhD Thesis is composed of four working papers, each one with a respective chapter on this thesis, with contributions on risk averse stochastic programming models. In particular, it focuses on analyzing the practical consequences of certain theoretical concepts of decision theory, finance and optimization. The first working paper analyzes the practical consequences and the economic interpretation of time consistent optimal policies, in particular for well known portfolio selection problem. The second paper has also a contribution to the portfolio selection literature. Indeed, we develop leverage optimal strategy considering a single-period debt with a piecewise linear borrowing cost function, which represents the actual situation faced by investors, and show a significant gap in comparison to the suboptimal solutions obtained by the usual linear approximation. Moreover, we develop a multistage extension where our cost function indirectly penalizes the excess of leverage, which is closely related to the contribution of the next working paper. The contribution of the third working paper is to penalize excess of leverage in a debt issuance multistage model that optimizes over several types of bonds with fixed or floating rate, different maturities and amortization patterns. For the sake of dealing with the curse of dimensionality of a long term problem, we divide the planning horizon into a detailed part at the beginning followed by a policy rule approximation for the remainder. Indeed, our approximation mitigates the end effects of a truncated model which is closely related to the contributions of the forth working paper. The forth paper develops a multistage model that seeks to obtain the optimal cash holding policy of a firm. The main contributions are a methodology to end effect treatment for a multistage model with infinite horizon and the development of a policy rule as approximation of the optimal solution.

Submitted by Luiz Henrique Moraes da Silva (luiz.henrique1046@gmail.com) on 2018-08-24T16:12:13Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_lhms_2.pdf: 1496435 bytes, checksum: 256777f511b36a71d178ad1980b4f101 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Joana Martorini (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2018-08-24T17:42:34Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_lhms_2.pdf: 1496435 bytes, checksum: 256777f511b36a71d178ad1980b4f101 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Isabele Garcia (isabele.garcia@fgv.br) on 2018-08-27T13:33:13Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_lhms_2.pdf: 1496435 bytes, checksum: 256777f511b36a71d178ad1980b4f101 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-27T13:33:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_lhms_2.pdf: 1496435 bytes, checksum: 256777f511b36a71d178ad1980b4f101 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-07-31 / O presente estudo propõe um modelo de simulação que combina o modelo multifatorial de Heath, Jarrow e Morton e distribuições de probabilidade empíricas condicionais para simular curvas de juros e ativos do mercado financeiro. Em seguida, utilizamos o modelo proposto para simular a evolução do Dólar, da estrutura a termo das taxas de juros do Brasil obtida a partir dos contratos de DI futuro e da curva de Cupom Cambial de Dólar Sujo de maneira integrada, sendo os resultados das simulações utilizados para realizar o apreçamento de ativos. Também aplicamos os resultados obtidos em um problema de otimização de portfólios, que busca maximizar o lucro de um participante sujeito às restrições regulatórias impostas pelas resoluções de Basiléia III, empregando novamente o conceito de distribuições empíricas condicionais. / This work proposes a simulation model that combines the multifactor Heath, Jarrow and Morton model with empirical conditional probability distributions to simulate interest rate curves and securities from the financial market. The work then utilizes the proposed model to simulate the USD/BRL exchange rate, the interest rate term structure obtained from the DI Future contracts and the Cupom Cambial de D´olar Sujo interest rate curve in an integrated way, using the obtained results to price securities. In addition, we apply the results obtained in a portoflio optimation problem, which seeks to maximize the profit of a market partcipant subject to the regulatory constraints imposed by the Basel III resolutions, utilizing once again the concept of empirical conditional distributions.