Η “καθιερωμένη θεώρηση για την πράξη”, όντας δεσμευμένη σε ένα ευρύτερο νατουραλιστικό μοντέλο, κατανοεί την πράξη ως “επιμέρους συμβάν”, το οποίο προκαλείται αιτιακά από συγκεκριμένες νοητικές καταστάσεις. Σ’ αυτό το πλαίσιο, η αιτιακή επίδραση της πρόθεσης υπάγεται στο σύνηθες χιουμιανό μοντέλο της αιτιότητας μεταξύ συμβάντων. Ωστόσο, η εν λόγω θεώρηση αποτυγχάνει ουσιωδώς να ερμηνεύσει τις πράξεις στην εξέλιξή τους, πριν δηλαδή να διαμορφωθεί το απαιτούμενο (από το χιουμιανό μοντέλο) εξατομικευμένο συμβάν. Το γεγονός αυτό έχει ευρύτερες επιπτώσεις για τον τρόπο με τον οποίο αντιλαμβάνεται η εν λόγω προσέγγιση τόσο την έννοια της πρόθεσης, όσο και κατ’ επέκταση το ρόλο του δρώντος. Στην παρούσα εργασία και με αφορμή κυρίως πρόσφατες εργασίες από τους Hornsby και Crowther, επιχειρηματολογώ σχετικά με το ότι μπορούμε να υιοθετήσουμε μια εναλλακτική προσέγγιση, τόσο για την οντολογία της πράξης, όσο και για την πρόθεση, η οποία δίνει ικανοποιητικότερες απαντήσεις στις ανωτέρω προκλήσεις. Κεντρική θέση στα πλαίσια αυτής της προσέγγισης είναι η αναγνώριση της “δραστηριότητας” ως συγκροτησιακού στοιχείου της πράξης, κατά τη διάρκεια της οποίας η αιτιακή συμβολή του δρώντος παραμένει συνεχής, σε συμφωνία με μια αριστοτελικού τύπου προσέγγιση της αιτιότητας. Όι παραδοχές αυτές οδηγούν σε μια θεώρηση της πρόθεσης ως καθοδηγητικής της πράξης καθόλη τη διάρκεια εξέλιξής της. / The “standard story of action” being committed to a broader naturalistic model, understands action as a “particular event”, which is caused by certain mental states. In this context, the causal efficacy of intention is covered by the standard humean model of causality between events. Nevertheless, the story in question substantially fails to give an account for actions as they develop, that is, before the required (by the humean model) individuated event has been formed. That fact has broader effects on the way that the approach in question understands the concept of intention, and ultimately the role of the agent. In this thesis, following mainly on recent papers by Hornsby and Crowther, I argue that we can endorse an alternate approach regarding the ontology of action, as well as intention, that gives more adequate answers to the challenges mentioned above. The main thesis in this context is to recognize “activity” as a constitutional element of action, during which the causal efficacy of the agent remains ongoing, in accordance with an aristotelian type of approach to causality. These commitments result in recognizing intention as guiding action throughout the whole of its development.

Submitted by Carlos Aurélio Bustamante Gonçalves (carlos.a.b.goncalves@gmail.com) on 2016-12-01T22:33:16Z No. of bitstreams: 1 carlos gonçalves - Dissertação - o mercado de caminhões no brasil -01122016.pdf: 3390001 bytes, checksum: df0eedc2484f2a8784dda76039181601 (MD5) / Rejected by Fabiana da Silva Segura (fabiana.segura@fgv.br), reason: Boa Noite, Prezado Carlos Peço corrigir alguns itens de formatação conforme segue: - Excluir o acento do nome Getulio nas páginas - Nome deve ser em maiúsculo (alternar, nas páginas que tiver o nome) - Titulo também em fonte maiúscula (alterar nas páginas que contém o título) - No rodapé permanece somente São Paulo - excluir o - SP - Linha de Pesquisa: Finanças e Economia de Empresas, alterar nas páginas que contém a lnha - Excluir na contra capa abaixo no nome do orientado FGV - EAESP - Folha de Assinaturas, alterar a linha de pesquisa e colocar a data de aprovação: 17/11/2016 Peço proceder com as alterações e submeter o trabalho novamente on 2016-12-01T23:28:13Z (GMT) / Submitted by Carlos Aurélio Bustamante Gonçalves (carlos.a.b.goncalves@gmail.com) on 2016-12-02T02:34:57Z No. of bitstreams: 1 carlos gonçalves - Dissertação - o mercado de caminhões no brasil -02122016.pdf: 3391454 bytes, checksum: 7cdcde7e62ecc28be15ec876866cca96 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Fabiana da Silva Segura (fabiana.segura@fgv.br) on 2016-12-02T14:03:17Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 carlos gonçalves - Dissertação - o mercado de caminhões no brasil -02122016.pdf: 3391454 bytes, checksum: 7cdcde7e62ecc28be15ec876866cca96 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-02T18:40:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 carlos gonçalves - Dissertação - o mercado de caminhões no brasil -02122016.pdf: 3391454 bytes, checksum: 7cdcde7e62ecc28be15ec876866cca96 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-11-17 / Este estudo trata do comportamento da demanda por caminhões novos no Brasil no período de 1996 a 2015 e da investigação dos fatores que a influenciam. Tal questão é relevante devido à escassez de estudos acerca deste tema, ainda que se trate do modo historicamente predominante de transporte de carga no país. O objetivo de pesquisa é determinar e quantificar os fatores que provocam o aumento ou diminuição das vendas de caminhão no Brasil. Para atingir este objetivo, foram construídos modelos econométricos a partir de dados secundários. Proxies utilizadas em outros modelos de demanda automotiva foram confirmadas e refinadas, enquanto novas proxies foram introduzidas com sucesso. Quanto aos resultados, este estudo inovou ao identificar três tipos de determinantes, e ao detalhar os efeitos e defasagens de suas influências: variáveis relacionadas especificamente ao mercado de caminhões, variáveis relacionadas ao PIB e variáveis relacionadas à confiança do comprador. Adicionalmente, realizou-se uma verificação da causalidade entre crédito e vendas, com o surpreendente resultado de que a influência ocorre no sentido de vendas para crédito. Com estes resultados, este estudo dissemina o conhecimento a respeito do comportamento do mercado a toda a cadeia produtiva, melhorando a qualidade das decisões e proporcionando aumento da eficiência para o sistema como um todo. / This is a study on the demand for new trucks in Brazil from 1996 to 2015, and an investigation on the factors that influence it. This topic is relevant due to the scarcity of studies concerning the subject, and due to the overwhelming domination of trucks in cargo transport in Brazil. It aims identify and quantify the variables that drive the sales of trucks. To reach this goal, econometric models were constructed based on secondary data. Variables usually adopted in other studies on automotive demand were confirmed and even refined and new variables were successfully introduced. This study innovates by identifying three groups of variables, and by detailing the effects and the lags of their influence: variables specific to the truck market, variables related to GDP, and variables related to the decision maker’s confidence. Additionally, a causality analysis involving credit and truck sales was performed, unexpectedly resulting in sales causing credit. Through these results, this study disseminates knowledge about the behavior of the truck market to the entire productive chain, contributing to evolve the quality of decisions and the efficiency of the entire system.

Cette thèse traite de la doctrine catégorielle, de l’ontologie et de la théorie de la connaissance de Dietrich de Freiberg dans le De origine rerum praedicamentalium. L’enjeu principal est d’étudier la fonction constitutive que l’intellect opère sur catégories et sur l’étant en tant que tel. La première partie replace le traité dans le contexte historique des débats à l’université de Paris à la fin du XIIIe siècle touchant au statut des catégories et à la manière d’ordonner les genres réels de l’étant. Elle confronte la dérivation essentielle des prédicaments chez Dietrich aux modèles de systématisation élaborées par ses prédécesseurs, tels qu’Albert le Grand, Thomas d’Aquin, Henri de Gand. La deuxième partie s’attache aux objets constitués par l’intellect : l’Un comme principe du nombre et de la division, la relation et le temps. La dernière partie enquête la modalité sur laquelle l’intellect opère cette activité sur l’étant et montre en définitive que le sujet de la métaphysique, l’être quiditatif des étants, se situe à la croisée de la logique et du réel / This thesis deals with Dietrich of Freiberg’s doctrine of categories, ontology and theory of knowledge, as present in the treatise De origine rerum praedicamentalium. The primary aim is to examine the constitutive function the intellect exercises on the categories and being as being. The first part of this thesis replaces the treatise in the historical background of the late 13th century debates from the University of Paris regarding the nature of categories and the manner of organizing the real genera of being. It compares Dietrich’s deduction of the categories with the systematization of some of his predecessors such as Albert the Great, Thomas Aquinas and Henry of Ghent. The second part of the thesis deals with the objects caused by the intellect: the One as principle of number and division, relation and time. The last part investigates the manner in which the intellect exercises its constitutive power on being and demonstrates in the final analysis that the subject of metaphysics, the quiditative being of things, is placed at the intersection of logic and reality

Qu’elle soit extranationale, transnationale ou internationale par nature, l’infraction internationale est toujours construite de la même manière : elle naît de la réunion d’un élément matériel et d’un élément moral, incluant parfois un élément contextuel. Cette constance structurelle dominant la diversité définitionnelle milite en faveur d’une unification des formes de la participation associées à ces infractions internationales : la spécificité de la participation à l’infraction internationale résiderait donc dans la spécificité, non des formes de la première, mais de la définition de la seconde. D’ailleurs, il n’existe que deux grands systèmes de participation applicables à l’infraction internationale : celui des juridictions pénales nationales et celui des juridictions pénales internationales. De leur comparaison, pourrait naître un système unique de participation à l’infraction internationale, permettant de mieux appréhender la criminalité collective en attribuant aux participants intellectuels une place plus juste au sein de la participation. En effet, après quelques adaptations nécessaires, il pourrait être fait appel au critère mixte du contrôle sur l’infraction internationale, développé récemment par la Cour pénale internationale, pour distinguer les formes principales des formes secondaires de la participation à l’infraction internationale. Ainsi, seraient des participants principaux les agents qui, avec l’état d’esprit idoine, prennent le contrôle de l’infraction internationale (coauteurs et auteurs intellectuels), tandis que seraient des participants secondaires les agents qui ne prennent pas un tel contrôle (complices par aide ou assistance et subordonnants). / Can it be extranational, transnational or international by nature, the international crime is always the same : it needs the reunion of a material element and a moral element, sometimes including a contextual element. This structural constancy, which dominates the definitional diversity, inclines us to campaign for the unification of the participation forms associated to the whole international crimes. In other words, the specifity of the participation in the international crime would be less due to the specifity of the first one’s forms than to the specifity of the second one’s definition. Now, there are only two grand systems of participation in the international crime : the one applied by the national criminal jurisdictions and the one applied by the international criminal jurisdictions. From the comparison of these two systems, it is possible to imagine a unique system of participation in the international crime, permitting a better understanding of the collective criminality by attributing a righter role to the intellectual participants within the participation. More precisely, and after a few necessary adaptations, control over the international crime, which is a mixed criterion recently developed by the International Criminal Court, could be used to distinguish the main forms from the secondary forms of participation in the international crime. Thus, main participants might be those who, with the suitable state of mind, take control over the international crime (co-perpetrators and intellectual perpetrators) while secondary participants might be those who don’t take such a control (accomplices by aid and assistance and “subordinators”).

Parce qu’elle est une clé de compréhension du déclenchement de la responsabilité civile, l’anormalité est une notion centrale de l’institution. Elle s’identifie d’abord à travers le dommage, qui est une anomalie, une déviation par rapport au cours normal des choses. L’anormalité est ici intrinsèque au dommage et se définit comme le déséquilibre patrimonial et extrapatrimonial subi par la victime. La notion se découvre ensuite à l’extérieur du dommage, elle caractérise ce qu’il faut en plus du dommage pour engager une responsabilité. Cette anormalité, dite extrinsèque au dommage, tient son origine dans la faute civile : est en faute l’individu ayant adopté un comportement anormal.Classiquement cantonnée à l’élément objectif de la faute, avant qu’elle n’en épuise entièrement la définition, l’évolution montre que l’anormalité s’est diversifiée pour devenir un critère aux multiples visages. La notion se rencontre ainsi, par exemple, dans la responsabilité du fait des choses (anormalité de la chose), dans la responsabilité du fait d’autrui (anormalité du fait d’autrui) ou encore en matière de trouble du voisinage. De manière plus latente, l’anormalité peut également être mobilisée pour expliquer le risque sélectionné par le législateur pour faire l’objet d’un régime spécial (ex : accidents de la circulation, fait des produits défectueux). En définitive, l’anormalité est un critère juridique de discrimination qui peut, pour faire naître une obligation de réparation, être associé au fait générateur, au dommage ou au risque. Cette vision est forte de potentialités ; elle permet une présentation renouvelée de la matière autour des trois fondements que sont l’anormalité du fait générateur, l’anormalité du dommage et l’anormalité du risque. En délimitant le périmètre de la responsabilité civile, cette tripartition permet finalement une relecture de la matière à la lumière des trois fondements proposés. / Because it is key in understanding how it is triggered, the concept of abnormality is a notion of great importance in relation to civil liability. This concept is first of all found in relation to the notion of injury, which is an anomaly, a deviation from the normal course of things. The abnormality is an intrinsic part of an injury and is defined as a patrimonial and non-patrimonial disturbance suffered by a victim. The concept is then applied outside of the notion of injury, as it then characterises the elements additional to the injury that are needed in order for liability to arise. This aspect of the abnormality, the extrinsic side, originates from the tort principle: that one is liable for one’s own abnormal behaviour.Although classically confined to the objective element of fault, the notion of abnormality has outgrown its original definition and developed into a criterion with many applications. The concept is used, for instance, in relation to product liability (abnormality of an object/product), vicarious liability, or even in relation to nuisance neighbours. There is perhaps also a latent possibility for the concept of abnormality to be used by the legislator for derivative special liability regimes (e.g. defective products, traffic accidents). Ultimately, the concept of abnormality is a form of legal criterion that, in order to give rise to compensation, can be associated to a triggering event, an injury, or a risk. This vision opens up many possibilities: it enables a new way of presenting this subject matter around the three principles that are the abnormality of the triggering event, the abnormality of the injury and the abnormality of the risk. By defining the perimeter of civil liability, this tripartition actually enables a new understanding of the subject matter through these three proposed principles.

Foreign aid has been used on the one hand by donors as an important international relations policy tool and on the other hand by developing countries as a source of funds for development. Since its inception in the 1940s, foreign aid has been one of the most researched topics in development economics. This study adds to this growing aid effectiveness literature, with a particular focus on the under-researched relationship between foreign aid and extreme poverty. The main empirical assessment is based on a sample of 120 developing countries from 1981 to 2013. The study had two main objectives, namely: (i) to estimate the impact of foreign aid on poverty reduction and (ii) to examine the direction of causality between foreign aid and poverty in developing countries. From these two broad objectives, there are six specific objectives, which include to: (i) examine the overall impact of foreign aid (total official development assistance) on extreme poverty, (ii) investigate the impact of different proxies of foreign aid on the three proxies of extreme poverty, (iii) assess whether political freedom (democracy) or economic freedom enhances the effectiveness of foreign aid, (iv) compare the impact of foreign aid on extreme poverty by developing country income groups, and (v) examine the direction of causality between extreme poverty and foreign aid. To achieve these objectives, the study employed two main dynamic panel data econometric estimation methods, namely the systemgeneralised method of moments (SGMM) technique and the panel vector error correction model (VECM) Granger causality framework. While the SGMM was used to assess the impact of foreign aid on extreme poverty, the panel VECM Granger causality was used to examine the direction of causality between foreign aid poverty. The SGMM was used because of its ability to deal with endogeneity by controlling for simultaneity and unobserved heterogeneity, whereas the panel VECM was preferred because the variables were stationary and cointegrated. / Economics / D. Phil. (Economics)

Dans la plupart des disciplines juridiques, le motif légitime se présente comme un standard de justification des actes. Il fait obstacle à l’application de la norme, en fondant un droit ou en exonérant d’un devoir. Le droit pénal se montre réticent à l’endroit de cette notion floue qui connaît pourtant un essor sans précédent. Afin de justifier la marge d’appréciation laissée au juge, le motif légitime est généralement conçu comme un mobile, ce qui accentue la confusion entre les causes objectives et subjectives d’irresponsabilité. L’insuffisance de l’approche formelle du mécanisme justificatif explique sa subjectivation progressive. L’analyse du motif légitime suppose de revisiter la théorie de la justification à travers une conception substantielle de l’illicéité, apte à unifier son régime. L’étude de la finalité justificative du motif légitime permet de mieux comprendre la souplesse de ses conditions de mise en œuvre. Le motif légitime renverse la présomption d’illicéité fondant la responsabilité. Le jugement de valeur porté sur l’infraction est la raison d’être du reproche social. Elle se distingue de son attribution à l’auteur qui relève d’un jugement de réalité sur sa volonté. Le motif légitime procède des circonstances extérieures à l’infraction autorisant la vérification concrète de son illicéité. La nature objective du motif légitime est conforme à son effet exonératoire de responsabilité opérant in rem et non in personam. Ses conditions d’application semblent, en revanche, doublement dérogatoires au droit commun de la justification, tant à l’égard de ses critères larges que de son domaine étroit. Il est cantonné à des infractions de risque abstrait pour des valeurs secondaires dont la présomption d’illicéité est artificielle. Le prévenu doit rapporter la preuve de la légitimité concrète de son acte, alors que la légitimité abstraite de la répression est sujette à caution. L’expansion de ce domaine dérogatoire de la répression révèle l’insuffisant contrôle de sa nécessité abstraite. En tout état de cause, la mention spéciale du motif légitime est inutile car toute infraction en fait implicitement réserve, en sorte qu’il se conçoit comme un standard général de justification. Il confère au juge la libre appréciation de la nécessité concrète de la répression, au regard du contexte de chaque espèce qui échappe par nature à la loi ne pouvant régler a priori tous les conflits de valeurs. La justification a postériori des infractions socialement nécessaires ou insignifiantes renforce l’autorité de la loi en garantissant une application conforme à sa finalité de protection des valeurs. / In many legal disciplines, the legitimate reason is a model of justification of acts. The legitimate reason prevents the enforcement of the law, either by creating a right or by exempting someone from a duty. Despite an unprecedented boom, criminal law is hesitant about this vague notion. In order to justify judges' assessment margin, the legitimate reason is commonly considered as a motive. This accentuates the confusion between objective and subjective causes of irresponsibility. The formal approach of the justificatory process is inadequate, making the process increasingly biased. The analysis of the legitimate reason requires a re-examination of the justification theory using a solid understanding of unlawfulness which can help standardize its implementation. The study of the legitimate reason’s justificatory function allows a better understanding of the flexibility of its implementation requirements. The legitimate reason reverses the presumption of unlawfulness on which liability is based. The cause of liability is conditioned by the value judgment made about the offence, whereas the judgment of the reality of the offender’s intention is the condition of his imputation. The legitimate reason stems from circumstances that are external to the offence, and which enable the review of its lawfulness. The objective nature of the legitimate reason is aligned with the fact that it exempts from liability in rem and not in personam. However, the requirements for its application seem exceptional to the common law of justification in two regards: its broad criteria and its narrow field. It is limited to offences of abstract risk that protect secondary values for which the presumption of unlawfulness is artificial. The defendant must prove the legitimacy of his act whereas the abstract legitimacy of the suppression is unconfirmed. The expansion of this dispensatory field of suppression reveals an inadequate control of its abstract necessity. In any case, bringing up legitimate reason is useless as it is implicit to any offence and is considered as a general model of justification. It leaves the judge free to assess the necessity of the penalty on a case by case basis, as the law, by nature, cannot resolve all value conflicts. The post facto justification of socially necessary offences or even trivial offences reinforces the authority of the law by ensuring an enforcement that is aligned with the law's aim of protecting values.

La méthodologie de l’évaluation en psychothérapie s’est longtemps limitée aux résultats issus d’essais cliniques comparatifs de groupes. L’objectif, engagé dans les années 2000, de comprendre ce qui cause son efficacité a engagé un renouvellement méthodologique. Son application concrète est peu documentée. La première partie présente, à partir d’une revue de la littérature centrée sur l’introduction de la recherche sur le processus associée aux résultats, comment le paradigme interactionnel multifactoriel de la psychothérapie a stimulé le développement de méthodes adaptées à la complexité et à l’observation en conditions naturelles. La seconde partie introduit autour de cinq axes principaux les questions méthodologiques générales et spécifiques de cette nouvelle orientation : 1. une épistémologie interactionnelle et transactionnelle ; 2. Un recentrage sur les études mixtes intensives de cas ; 3. Une investigation clinique et théorique multifocale des processus et mécanismes de changement ; 4. une forte relation clinicien-chercheur ; 5. une approche statistique innovante. La troisième partie expose l’expérience et les questions soulevées par la mise en œuvre de ce programme dans le cadre d’un réseau de recherche clinique centré sur les pratiques, du recueil des données jusqu’à l’analyse des processus et mécanismes de changement, et les résultats qui en sont issus. La quatrième partie présente une revue détaillée de la littérature. Ce travail devrait favoriser les collaborations avec les disciplines connexes et l’efficience des traitements par une meilleure connaissance des conditions et des mécanismes de changement associée au développement d’une base de données issue d’études de cas. / The methodology of assessment in psychotherapy has long been limited to results from comparative group clinical trials. The objective, expressed in the 2000s, to understand what is causing its effectiveness has involved a methodological renewal. Its concrete application is poorly documented. The first part presents, from a review of the literature focusing on the introduction of research on the process associated with outcomes, how the multifactorial interactional paradigm of psychotherapy has stimulated the development of methods adapted to the complexity and observation in natural conditions. The second part introduces the general and specific methodological questions of this new orientation around five main axes: 1. an interactional and transactional epistemology; 2. A refocusing on intensive mixed case studies; 3. A multifocal clinical and theoretical investigation of the processes and mechanisms of change; 4. a strong clinical-researcher relationship; 5. an innovative statistical approach. The third part presents the experience and issues raised by the implementation of this program as part of a practice-oriented clinical research network, from data collection to analysis of processes and mechanisms of change, and results. The fourth part presents a detailed review of the literature. This work should foster collaborations with related disciplines and treatment efficiency through a better understanding of the conditions and mechanisms of change associated with the development of a case study database.

System dynamics modelling has been used for around 40 years to address complex, systemic, dynamic problems, those often described as wicked. But, system dynamics modelling is not an exact science and arguments about the most suitable techniques to use in which circumstances, continues. The nature of these wicked problems is investigated through a series of case studies where poor situational awareness among stakeholders was identified. This was found to be an underlying cause for management failure, suggesting need for better ways of recognising and managing wicked problem situations. Human cognition is considered both as a limitation and enabler to decision-making in wicked problem environments. Naturalistic and deliberate decision-making are reviewed. The thesis identifies the need for integration of qualitative and quantitative techniques. Case study results and a review of the literature led to identification of a set of principles of method to be applied in an integrated framework, the aim being to develop an improved way of addressing wicked problems. These principles were applied to a series of cases in an action research setting. However, organisational and political barriers were encountered. This limited the exploitation and investigation of cases to varying degrees. In response to a need identified in the literature review and the case studies, a tool is designed to facilitate analysis of multi-factorial, non-linear causality. This unique tool and its use to assist in problem conceptualisation, and as an aid to testing alternate strategies, are demonstrated. Further investigation is needed in relation to the veracity of combining causal influences using this tool and system dynamics, broadly. System dynamics modelling was found to have utility needed to support analysis of wicked problems. However, failure in a particular modelling project occurred when it was found necessary to rely on human judgement in estimating values to be input into the models. This was found to be problematic and unacceptably risky for sponsors of the modelling effort. Finally, this work has also identified that further study is required into: the use of human judgement in decision-making and the validity of system dynamics models that rely on the quantification of human judgement.

System dynamics modelling has been used for around 40 years to address complex, systemic, dynamic problems, those often described as wicked. But, system dynamics modelling is not an exact science and arguments about the most suitable techniques to use in which circumstances, continues. The nature of these wicked problems is investigated through a series of case studies where poor situational awareness among stakeholders was identified. This was found to be an underlying cause for management failure, suggesting need for better ways of recognising and managing wicked problem situations. Human cognition is considered both as a limitation and enabler to decision-making in wicked problem environments. Naturalistic and deliberate decision-making are reviewed. The thesis identifies the need for integration of qualitative and quantitative techniques. Case study results and a review of the literature led to identification of a set of principles of method to be applied in an integrated framework, the aim being to develop an improved way of addressing wicked problems. These principles were applied to a series of cases in an action research setting. However, organisational and political barriers were encountered. This limited the exploitation and investigation of cases to varying degrees. In response to a need identified in the literature review and the case studies, a tool is designed to facilitate analysis of multi-factorial, non-linear causality. This unique tool and its use to assist in problem conceptualisation, and as an aid to testing alternate strategies, are demonstrated. Further investigation is needed in relation to the veracity of combining causal influences using this tool and system dynamics, broadly. System dynamics modelling was found to have utility needed to support analysis of wicked problems. However, failure in a particular modelling project occurred when it was found necessary to rely on human judgement in estimating values to be input into the models. This was found to be problematic and unacceptably risky for sponsors of the modelling effort. Finally, this work has also identified that further study is required into: the use of human judgement in decision-making and the validity of system dynamics models that rely on the quantification of human judgement.