This research work focuses on the optimal algorithms of decision making and forecasting respectively, in order to achieve a better prediction. Decision making techniques and forecasting methods are investigated due to the poor accuracy of forecasting in comparison with real world data. The uncertainty of real world data leads to the use of type-1 fuzzy sets, type-2 fuzzy sets, fuzzy decision tree and fuzzy time-series for fuzzy data-mining - to which they are applied for the look-ahead based interval-valued fuzzy decision tree with optimal perimeter of the neighbourhood (LAIVFDT-OPN) model, and high-order type-2 fuzzy time series (HO-T2FTS) model. In the experiment with a real world business, a ‘computerised maintenance integration management system’ (CMIMS) is constructed as a simulation model for a case study. The CMIMS model consists of the LAIVFDT-OPN and HO-T2FTS models. It is also applied to a set of real world data from a factory in Thailand. Due to the significant uncertainty involved in machine maintenance, most tasks in machine diagnosis are still carried out manually by technicians. In this research, a prototype of CMIMS employing fuzzy data mining to diagnose machine maintenance is constructed. Considering the special features of machine maintenance data, fuzzy decision trees and fuzzy time series are adopted in the proposal method. To represent the uncertain fuzzy memberships, interval-valued fuzzy decision trees are proposed and an optimal neighbourhood perimeter is defined for look-ahead fuzzy decision trees. Based on the existing first-order type-2 time-series and high-order type-1 fuzzy time series, an improved high-order type-2 fuzzy time series method is put forward. In this case study, the CMIMS model can be used to analyse and evaluate uncertain data. It also can be employed to facilitate decision making in machine equipment status, and forecast machine maintenance plan in the future in stead of technicians. Our results demonstrated that the proposal method is effective in fuzzy decision support for machine maintenance.

This thesis describes the development and application of a decision support system for logistics strategy modelling. The decision support system that is developed enables the modelling of logistics systems at a strategic level for any country or area in the world. The model runs on IBM PC or compatible computers under DOS (disk operating system). The decision support system uses colour graphics to represent the different physical functions of a logistics system. The graphics of the system is machine independent. The model displays on the screen the map of the area or country which is being considered for logistic planning. The decision support system is hybrid in term of algorithm. It employs optimisation for allocation. The customers are allocated by building a network path from customer to the source points taking into consideration all the production and throughput constraints on factories, distribution depots and transshipment points. The system uses computer graphic visually interactive heuristics to find the best possible location for distribution depots and transshipment points. In a one depot system it gives the optimum solution but where more than one depot is involved, the optimum solution is not guaranteed. The developed model is a cost-driven model. It represents all the logistics system costs in their proper form. Its solution very much depends on the relationship between all the costs. The locations of depots and transshipment points depend on the relationship between inbound and outbound transportation costs. The model has been validated on real world problems, some of which are described here. The advantages of such a decision support system for the formulation of a problem are discussed. Also discussed is the contribution of such an approach at the validation and solution presentation stages.

No description available.

No description available.

The thesis reports a research programme designed to answer two research questions. These are concerned with improving the practice of Visual Interactive Modelling in the context of an Operational Research activity and the potential contribution of Visual Interactive Modelling towards overcoming certain long term concerns which the Operational Research community has regarding the service it provides. The literature of Visual Interactive Modelling is reviewed, as is that of wider aspects of Operational Research concerned with the paradigm used by its practitioners and researchers. Two series of experimental studies are undertaken to collect data to help answer the research questions. Action Research is used for a series of six studies of Visual Interactive Modelling cases. The second series is more laboratory based to gain a type of data which is not available from Action Research. Results are presented in three forms. A 'body of experience' is collated from the data collected during the studies. This will form a base for future researchers in the Visual Interactive Modelling field. Secondly, a series of guidelines is tentatively proposed which could be used by practitioners as a basis for good practice in Visual Interactive Modelling. Finally, in the light of the data collected and reviews of the literature, a new way of considering the contribution of Visual Interactive Modelling to the Operational Research process is proposed. Suggestions for further research are offered.

No description available.

No description available.

Management Intelligence Systems are a class- of Decision Support Systems aimed at providing intelligence about an ill-structured decision to a decision-maker. The research objective was to build a 'Consultant Advisory System', a computerised model of success, to assist internal consultants in, assessing the likelihood of success for a Management Intelligence System (MINTS). The system would also be capable of allowing the consultant to identify reasons which might lead to a low likelihood of success, so that corrective action can be taken. The approach taken is different from many other studies which have concentrated on the success of a computer-based information system after implementation, rather than assessing success throughout the whole process of initiating, developing and implementing such systems. The research has been based on a detailed survey of the literature on Management Information systems (MIS), and Decision Support Systems (DSS) and 39 field investigations involving detailed interviews with the key actors involved in a MINTS project. Two phases of MINTS development were identified: (A) ensuring a right environment and (B) maintaining relationships. About 280 factors were distilled as significant for the successful development of a MINTS and these have been incorporated in a computerised advisor. Validation of MINTS in general and the advisor in particular is discussed in detail.

In the 1990s, the UK construction industry directed considerable effort at improving productivity and reducing costs by harmonising relationships among clients, contractors, sub-contractors, specialist contractors and designers. Opportunities to accrue further benefits should be explored and capitalised upon from all areas of construction projects. Management of construction materials on well grounded logistics and supply chain management principles has the potential to yield results and augment efforts being made in other areas at making construction more efficient. The overall aim of this thesis was to develop a systematic supplier management decision-support process model that contractors can use for both short and long-term management of suppliers in the implementation of construction materials supply logistics. Such a process model would benefit construction companies by identifying essential elements that lead to improved supply of construction materials. The research findings were based upon a literature survey, two `minor-image' questionnaires (one sent to 71 UK contractors and the other to 76 UK construction materials suppliers); structured interviews with nine UK contractors and five UK construction materials suppliers; and a supplier management process model validation exercise with six UK contractors. From these, the research produced the following outcomes: systematic supplier management decision-support process map that contractors can use for short and long-term management of suppliers in the implementation of construction materials supply logistics; an understanding of the supply of construction materials into construction processes from the wider perspective of logistics and supply chain management as opposed to traditional materials management; the identification of the performance indicators against which the performance of suppliers can be evaluated and the quantification of the relative contribution of the performance indicators to improvements in customer service; the identification of factors which enable suppliers to improve levels of customer service and quantification of the relative extent to which the factors enable suppliers to contribute to improvements in their levels of customer service in the delivery of construction materials; identification of the extent to which both performance indicators and enablers were used in supplier evaluation and selection; evaluation and comparison of the extent to which contractors and suppliers used information and communication technologies in internal and external materials supply logistics processes; and evaluation of the nature of relationships between contractors and suppliers.

Thesis (M.S.)--Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1991. / Vita. Abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 104-106). Also available via the Internet.