Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Kansas, 2002. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 115-123).

published_or_final_version / Business Administration / Master / Master of Business Administration

published_or_final_version / Economics and Finance / Master / Master of Economics

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This research examines the nature and impact of financial repression in the Trinidad and Tobago economy using cointegration time series techniques and disequilibrium econometrics. While the former is employed to estimate the impact on savings, investment and growth, the latter is mainly used to test whether the characteristics which depict a financially repressed economy are present in Trinidad and Tobago. Trinidad and Tobago has not previously been the subject of such a study, and neither estimation methods have been used to investigate financial repression. While the real interest has been most frequently used to measure financial repression, six proxies are utilised in this study: the real interest rate; dummy variables; commercial banks' reserve requirement; inflation; the difference between the domestic and the foreign interest rate and a variable to measure the overvaluation of a country's currency. With respect to the latter there are two definitions: the difference between the official and the blackmarket exchange rate and the degree of exchange rate misalignment. The results using real interest rates and inflation measures of financial repression suggest that while liberalisation cannot be seen as the solution to increasing savings and investment it may promote economic growth. When all the other proxies are examined the impact of financial repression on the economy is negative albeit statistically insignificant in most instances. There is some indication that exchange rate should be devalued so as to reduce exchange rate misalignment and reduce the widening gap between the official and blackmarket rate. On the basis of these results the McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis cannot be rejected. However the results when inflation and real interest rates are the relevant proxies for financial repression as well as the low significance levels of other proxies, ought to serve as warning signals to avoid implementing drastic liberalisation measures too quickly.

Ph.D. (Economics) / Please refer to full text to view abstract

M.Comm. (Economic Development and Policy Issues) / The response of the trade balance to changes in currency movements has gained increasing interest among researchers, especially since the fall of the Bretton Woods system. Previous empirical studies that examined the response of the trade balance to exchange rate changes in South Africa employed aggregate trade data and provided mixed results. This dissertation uses disaggregated data with specific focus on the manufacturing sector. The purpose is to investigate the short and long run effects of the real exchange rate of the rand on the South African manufacturing trade balance by adopting the elasticity approach of balance of payments adjustment. Using quarterly data from 1995 to 2010, the study seeks to test the existence of the J-curve effect and to show whether the Marshal–Lerner condition holds in the manufacturing sector. Johansen cointegration and vector error correction modelling techniques are employed in attaining the objectives of this study. In addition, impulse response functions are used to determine how the manufacturing trade balance responds following shocks in its main determinants. The results show that real effective exchange rate (REER), real domestic and foreign income levels are important long run determinants of the manufacturing trade balance, and that a long run equilibrium relationship exists among these variables. A long run negative relationship was found between the trade balance and the REER and between the trade balance and real domestic income. In contrast, real foreign income was found to be positively related to the domestic manufacturing trade balance in the long run. The short run model reveals that a depreciation in the domestic currency results in a deterioration in the manufacturing trade balance. This, together with the long run findings, suggests evidence of the existence of the J-curve in the South African manufacturing trade balance. The long run dynamics suggest that the Marshal–Lerner condition holds. This dissertation found evidence that a depreciation of the rand is necessary to improve the manufacturing trade balance.

M.Com. (Economics) / This dissertation offers an evaluation of the performance of purchasing power parity (PPP) and the monetary approach as explanations of rand exchange rate behaviour over the last three decades. The theory of purchasing power parity is examined in detail. Thereafter purchasing power parity is combined with the quantity theory of money placing the theory in the broader context of the monetary approach. A modified monetary model illustrating exchange rate overshooting in the short-run and adjustment to PPP in the long-run is then examined in some detail. Chapter 4 presents an overview of the: empirical evidence on PPP and the monetary approach from industrialized countries and developing nations. Results are generally mixed but there does appear to be some strong support for PPP holding in the (very) long run in the case of the currencies of industrialized countries. However, it has proven very difficult to reconcile the persistence of deviations from PPP over the short to medium term with the theory of long-run purchasing power parity. This is known as, the purchasing power parity puzzle and is particularly evident for floating exchange rate regimes of industrialized countries. Studies of developing nation currencies are less supportive of PPP. However, much more research needs to be done before any firm conclusions can be made regarding exchange rate behaviour in developing countries...