"Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Business Administration from the Naval Postgraduate School, December 2009." / Advisor(s): Arkes, Jeremy A. ; Gates, William R. "December 2009." "MBA Professional report"--Cover. Description based on title screen as viewed on January 27, 2010. Author(s) subject terms: Prediction markets, information markets, information aggregation, forecasting, force shaping. Includes bibliographical references (p. 99-102). Also available in print.

No description available.

Thesis (M.S. in Management)--Naval Postgraduate School, March 2009. / Thesis Advisor(s): Mehay, Stephen ; Pema, Elda. "March 2009." Description based on title screen as viewed on April 23, 2009. Author(s) subject terms: Recruiting, Recruiters, Contract Supply, Forecasting, USMC, Marine Corps Recruiting Command, MCRC. Includes bibliographical references (p. 61-62). Also available in print.

"Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Business Administration from the Naval Postgraduate School, December 2008." / Advisor(s): Jones, Lawrence R. ; Wagner, Brett. "December 2008." "MBA professional report"--Cover. Description based on title screen as viewed on January 28, 2009. Includes bibliographical references (p. 29). Also available in print.

The evidence presented in this study suggests that the dispersion, accuracy and transitory component in revisions of financial analysts' forecasts (FAF) are determined by production/investment/financing decisions, accounting choices as well as firm specific characteristics including the type of control, debt to equity ratio and size of the firm. Firms with managers control (owners control), high (low) debt to equity ratio and large (small) size are hypothesized to have higher (lower) dispersion, forecast error and transitory components in revisions of FAF. These hypotheses are motivated by the contracting cost and political visibility theories. The information availability theory is included as a contrast to the political visibility hypothesis. The information availability hypothesis predicts large (small) firms to have lower (higher) dispersion, forecast error and transitory component in revisions of FAF. The regression results are sensitive to deflated and undeflated measures of the dispersion and accuracy of FAF and size of the firm. The appropriateness of the two measures of firm's size, the book value of total assets and the market value of common stock plus long-term debt, as well as the deflated and undeflated measures of dispersion and accuracy of FAF are investigated. It is concluded that deflated measures of the dispersion and forecast errors and the market value as measure of firm size are misspecified in the present context. The current year forecast revisions are assumed to consist of the transitory and permanent components. The second year forecast revisions are used to represent the long-term forecast revisions and are used as a control for the permanent component of forecast revisions. The regression results are consistent with the contracting and political visibility hypotheses. The firm specific characteristics are hypothesized to influence forecast errors and dispersion directly and indirectly through business risk and accounting policy choices. The links between firm characteristics and business risk, accounting policy choices, dispersion and forecast errors are established and path analysis is used to test these relationships. These relationships are observed to be consistent with predictions and significant.

Thesis (M.B.A.)--University of Hong Kong, 1982.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1953. / Typescript. Vita. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Bibliographies: leaves 288-293.

Freie Univ., Diss.--Berlin, 2004.

M.Comm. (Financial Economics) / The term structure of interest rates, particularly the term spread determined from the difference between ten-year government bond yields and three-month Treasury bill yields, has received increased attention as a valuable forecasting tool for the purposes of monetary policy and recession forecasting. This is on the back of the observed positive relationship between term spread and economic activity. Moreover, the term spread has been observed to invert prior to the occurrence of economic recessions both in developed and developing countries. This study investigated the forecasting ability of the South African (S.A.) term spread in predicting S.A. recessions, taking into account the recent global economic recession. The reason behind the investigation is due to the forecasting consistencies illustrated by the term spread in providing statistically incorrect signals of recession in 2003, which did not transit into reality. It implied a weak relationship between the S.A. term spread and economic activity. Moreover, based on observations from the literature that term spreads and economic activities across countries are correlated, the term spreads of China, United States (U.S.) and Germany were investigated and compared to the S.A. term spread, to determine which better forecasts S.A. recessions. The study employed the Dynamic Probit Model, since it is considered to provide a better predictive edge over the Traditional Static Probit model. The findings revealed that the S.A. term spread accurately predicted all the S.A recessions since 1980; Chinese term spread accurately predicted the 1996 and 2008 S.A recessions; U.S. term spread predicted some recessions; while German term spread predictions were countercyclical.

No description available.