Pension insurance and demographic development in the Czech Republic Abstract The aim of this thesis is to describe the development of the pension insurance in the Czech Republic and changes in retirement age in relation to the development of life expectancy and changes in the age structure of the population of the Czech Republic. In the first part of the work, there demographic changes of the population are described and in particular, changes in the age structure of the population of the Czech Republic. The second part provides an overview of the historical development of pension insurance in the territory of today's Czech Republic, in particular the development of the most important laws, but also statistical data as well as basic concepts and characteristics of the current pension scheme. In the third part of this thesis are analyzed the changes in the age structure of the population and their relation to raising retirement age in the pension scheme of Czech Republic. Keywords: pension insurance, retirement age, the age structure of the population, life expectancy.

The increase in the life expectancy of natural persons has become a worldwide phenomenon. People live longer and need income for longer periods of time. Individuals need to start saving for their retirement early in life while still part of the workforce. Insufficient retirement savings lead to individuals not having sufficient income for their retirement. People become dependent on the government for assistance in paying for their day-to-day living expenses, leading to increases in social grants payable by the government. In South Africa the National Treasury needs to budget through taxation for the increase in the old age pension, which increases government expenditure. Additional income tax will therefore need to be raised to ensure that the national deficit does not increase further. Personal income taxes will directly be affected by the increase in the life expectancy. Research has been done internationally on the increase in life expectancy and the possible effect on the governments of those countries. No research has, however, been done in such detail in South Africa. This study provided information on the increase in the life expectancy of the South African population and the effect on the increase of old age pension as a social grant expense paid by the Government to qualifying beneficiaries. The aim of this study was to gain insight in the increase in the number of elderly people, those individuals aged 60 years and older, and the relation between this increase and the increase in the number of old age pension beneficiaries together with the increase in the budgeted expenses by the Government for old age pension. From a theoretical perspective, this study aimed to identify the possibility of increasing the retirement age to help people receive an income from employment for longer and to provide for themselves during the longer years in retirement. Finally the study aimed to assess this impact on taxation. A number of factors play a role in the increase of the number of old age pension beneficiaries and the resulting old age pension expense in the government budget. This study only focused on the role that the increase in life expectancy plays. AFRIKAANS : Die toename in die lewensverwagting van natuurlike persone het ’n wêreldwye verskynsel geword. Mense leef langer en moet ’n inkomste vir ’n baie langer tydperk hê. Individue moet reeds vroeg, terwyl hulle nog deel is van die werksmag, begin spaar vir hul aftrede. Onvoldoende aftreefondse lei daartoe dat pensioenarisse nie voldoende inkomste tydens hul aftrede verdien nie. Hierdie tekort lei daartoe dat individue afhanklik is van die regering om hulle by te staan vir die betaling van daaglikse uitgawes. Dit lei tot die verhoging in die maatskaplike toelaes wat deur die regering betaal word. In Suid-Afrika moet die Nasionale Tesourie in die begroting voorsiening maak vir die toename in die ouderdomspensioen wat tot ’n toename in regeringsuitgawes lei. Ekstra inkomste moet ook verkry word om te verseker dat die nasionale tekort nie verder toeneem nie. Persoonlike inkomstebelasting word regstreeks hierdeur beïnvloed. Internasionale navorsing is gedoen op die toename in lewensverwagting en die moontlike invloed op die regerings van daardie lande. Soortgelyke navorsing is egter nog nie in Suid-Afrika gedoen nie. Dié studie bied meer inligting oor die toename in lewensverwagting van die Suid-Afrikaanse bevolking en die effek daarvan op die toename in die ouderdomspensioen as ’n maatskaplike toelaag wat deur die regering betaal word aan begunstigdes wat daarvoor kwalifiseer. Die doel van hierdie studie was om insig te verkry in die toename in die aantal bejaardes, individue van 60 jaar en ouer, en die verwantskap tussen hierdie toename en die toename in die aantal ouderdomspensioen begunstigdes asook die begrote regeringsuitgawe vir ouderdomspensioene. Die studie het gepoog om vanuit ’n teoretiese oogpunt te kyk na die moontlikheid om die aftreeouderdom te verhoog sodat mense langer inkomste kan verdien en vir hulleself kan sorg in die langer aftreetydperk. Die studie het ook gekyk na die invloed hiervan op belasting. Verskeie faktore speel ’n rol in die groei van die aantal individue wat ouderdomspensioen ontvang en gepaardgaande toename in die ouderdomspensioenbegroting van die regering. Die studie het slegs gefokus op die rol wat die verhoging in lewensverwagting speel. / Dissertation (MCom)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Taxation / unrestricted

Les indicateurs épidémiologiques de la démence tels que l'espérance de vie sans démence pour un âge donné ou le risque absolu sont des quantités utiles en santé publique. L'observation de la démence en temps discret entraine une censure par intervalle du temps d'apparition de la pathologie. De plus, certains individus peuvent développer une démence et décéder entre deux visites de suivi. Un modèle illness-death pour données censurées par intervalle est une solution pour modéliser simultanément les risques de démence et de décès et pour éviter la sous-estimation de l'incidence de la démence.Ces indicateurs dépendent à la fois du risque de démence mais aussi du risque de décès, contrairement à l'intensité de transition de la démence. Les modèles de régression disponibles ne prennent pas en compte la censure par intervalle ou ne sont pas adaptés à ces indicateurs. L'objectif de ce travail est de quantifier l'effet de facteurs de risque sur ces indicateurs épidémiologiques par des modèles de régression. La première partie de cette thèse est consacrée à l'extension de l'approche par pseudo-valeurs aux données censurées par intervalle. Les pseudo-valeurs sont calculées à partir d'estimateurs paramétriques ou d'estimateurs du maximum de vraisemblance pénalisée. Elles sont utilisées comme variable d'intérêt dans des modèles linéaires généralisés ou des modèles additifs généralisés pour permettre un effet non-linéaire des variables explicatives quantitatives. La seconde partie de cette thèse porte sur le développement d'un modèle par linéarisation des indicateurs épidémiologiques. L'idée est de calculer l'indicateur conditionnellement aux variables explicatives à partir des intensités de transition d'un modèle illness-death avec censure par intervalle du temps d'apparition de la maladie. Ces deux approches sont appliquées aux données de la cohorte française PAQUID pour étudier par exemple l'effet d'un score psychométrique (le MMS) sur des indicateurs épidémiologiques de la démence. / Dementia epidemiological indicators as the life expectancy without dementia at a specific age or the absolute risk are quantities meaningful for public health. Dementia is observed on discrete-time in cohort studies which leads to interval censoring of the time-to-onset. Moreover, some subjects can develop dementia and die between two follow-up visits. Illness-death model for interval-censored data is a solution to model simultaneously dementia risk and death risk and to avoid under-estimation of dementia incidence. These indicators depend on both dementia and death risks as opposed to dementia transition intensity. Available regression models do not take into account interval censoring or are not suitable for these indicators. The aim of this work is to propose regression models to quantify impact of risk factors on these indicators. Firstly, the pseudo-values approach is extended to interval-censored data. Pseudo-values are computed by parametric estimators or by maximum penalized likelihood estimators. Then pseudo-values are used as outcome in a generalized linear models or in a generalized additive models in case of non-linear effect of quantitative covariates. Secondly, the effect of covariates are summarized by linearization of the maximum likelihood estimator. In this part, the idea is to compute indicators conditionally on the covariates values from transition intensities of an illness-death model. These two approaches are applied to the French cohort PAQUID to study effect of a psychometric test (the MMS) on these indicators for example.

This dissertation is divided into five chapters consisting of three short essays that concentrate on economic analysis of health, savings and labor. The first essay is aimed at investigating the influence of increased work hours on individuals’ health and how this may differ between males and females. It is expected that increased hours of work will have a negative impact on health but this impact may be stronger for females. In the second essay, the relationship between individuals’ health and savings behavior is analyzed. Healthy individuals are expected to be more productive, earn higher incomes, and have lower medical expenditures compared to unhealthy individuals. It is therefore expected that individuals’ health will have a positive influence on their saving behavior. The third paper analyzes the effect of increased work, as proxied by labor force participation, on health, as proxied by life expectancy, at the macro level. The main aim of the analysis in the third essay is to investigate whether or not increased female labor force participation is a contributing factor to the narrowing gap between the life expectancy of females and males. In the final chapter of this dissertation, I provide a summary of my findings on the relationships between work, health, and savings. I also provide directions for future research.

<p>Under det gångna århundradet ökade den förväntade livslängden avsevärt såväl i Sverige som i övriga världen. 1900-talets förbättrade livslängd drevs inledningsvis av en minskad barnadödlighet medan de senare årtiondena kännetecknades av minskad dödlighet i höga åldrar.</p><p>En åldrande befolkning innebär ökade krav på sjukvård, äldreomsorg och inte minst pensionssystem. Pålitliga prognoser för vår framtida livslängd behövs för att beräkna de resurser som nämnda verksamheter kommer att ta i anspråk och utgör förutsättningen för en rättvis prissättning av försäkringsprodukter med levnadsrisk.</p><p>Lee-Carter-modellen är en av vår tids tongivande modeller för mortalitetsprognostisering. Modellen används här för att göra livslängdsprognoser utifrån svenska mortalitetsdata; prognoserna jämförs sedan med observerade utfall.</p><p>Mot bakgrund av resultatet diskuteras levnadsrisk med fokus på pensioner.</p><p>Inte oväntat presterar prognoserna ingen felfri bild av verkligheten och prognosfelet varierar i storlek mellan skattningarna; att använda dem som underlag för pensionsberäkningar hade i förlängningen varit ohållbart. Exemplet illustrerar på samma gång vår osäkerhet inför framtidens livslängdsutveckling och svårigheten i att prognostisera den.</p> / <p>During the past century, Sweden along with many other countries experienced a sharp decline in mortality rates. The increased life expectancy was initially propelled by mortality reductions among infants and subsequently by a survival improvement in advanced ages.</p><p>An ageing population has large implications for those providing services to the elderly, such as medical care and pensions, whilst also addressing the need for accurate and reliable mortality forecasts and projection methods.</p><p>The Lee-Carter model is the current gold standard for mortality forecasting and has been widely adopted in several studies. Here, the model is applied on Swedish mortality data; the projections are then compared to the observed lifespan development. Against this backdrop, a discussion on longevity risk in pensions schemes follows.</p><p>The forecasts performed in this study do not perfectly reflect the observed mortality change in the examined period; furthermore, the variation of the estimation errors limits the actuarial value of the projections. The findings illuminate the uncertainty that surrounds our future life expectancy as well as the difficulties associated with forecasting it.</p>

La mortalité aux jeunes âges devenant de plus en plus faible, l’augmentation de l’espérance de vie est de plus en plus dépendante des progrès en mortalité aux âges avancés. L’espérance de vie à 65 ans et à 85 ans n’a cependant pas connu un rythme de progression continu depuis les trois dernières décennies. Ces changements dans l’évolution de l’espérance de vie proviennent de changements dans les tendances de certaines causes de décès et de leurs interactions. Ce mémoire analyse la contribution des causes de décès aux changements qu’a connus l’espérance de vie, mais aussi l’évolution spécifique des taux de mortalité liés aux principales causes de décès au Canada entre 1979 et 2007. Finalement, une analyse de l’implication de ces changements dans un contexte de transition épidémiologique sera réalisée, par un questionnement sur le fait que l’on assiste ou non au passage de certaines pathologies dominantes à d’autres. La réponse à ce questionnement se trouve dans l’étude de l’évolution par âge et dans le temps des causes de décès. Les résultats montrent que les progrès en espérance de vie à 65 ans et à 85 ans sont encore majoritairement dus à la diminution de la mortalité par maladies cardiovasculaires. Toutefois, ces dernières causes de décès ne sont pas les seules à contribuer aux progrès en espérance de vie, puisque les taux de mortalité dus aux dix principales causes de décès au Canada ont connu une diminution, bien qu’elles n’aient pas toutes évolué de la même manière depuis 1979. On ne semble ainsi pas passer d’un type de pathologies dominantes à un autre, mais à une diminution générale de la mortalité par maladies chroniques et à une diversification plus importante des causes de décès à des âges de plus en plus avancés, notamment par la diminution des «grandes» causes de décès. / With the decrease of mortality at younger ages, gain in life expectancy is heavily dependent on the progress in old age mortality. However, over the last three decades, life expectancies at 65 and 85 years old have not experienced a constant rate of progress. Changes in life expectancy progress come from changes in specific causes of death trends and their interactions. The present thesis studies the contribution of causes of death on the changes in life expectancies and the trends in death rates of specific causes of death in Canada between 1979 and 2007. An analysis of those changes in an epidemiological transition context has also been done by questioning whether or not we are witnessing a shift from certain dominant diseases to others. This questioning will be answered by studying variation in the causes of death by age and over time. The results of this study show that progress in life expectancies at 65 and 85 years old are still mainly due to the decrease in cardiovascular mortality. However, cardiovascular diseases are not the only causes of death to contribute to the progress in life expectancy. Since 1979, mortality rates from the ten leading causes of death in Canada have all declined but in different ways. Thus, there does not seem to be a shift in the dominant causes of death towards others in Canada, but there is a general mortality decline from chronic diseases and a greater diversification of causes of death at older ages.

Thesis entitled Phenomenon of longevity aims to describe and define very actual today Thema longevity. There is also mentioned particularly contemporary view of the phenomenon and its historical development. This work also touches demographics and life expectancy, which is closely linked to longevity. Great attention is paid to the problem spots in the lives of very old people, especially their disadvantaged status. On this chapter is followed also the care and support of life, that is in such high age necessary. Part of the work are also two research projects that enable an insight into the past lives of long-lived seniors in their health and functional status, and especially trying to uncover the causes of longevity.

Kazakhstan: Mortality in European context (comparison with selected European countries and nationalities) Abstract The aim of this diploma thesis is to anylized mortality rates in Kazakhstan and compared it with selected European countries. In the begining of the thesis is brief outline of history and development of ethnic composition in this Central Asian Republic. Another section contains a comparison of the economic and social conditions in Kazakhstan with two selected European countries - the Czech Republic and Sweden. The thesis continues with comparison and development of the most important mortality indicators in the three above mentioned countries. One of the used criteria summarizes findings from the comparison of mortality backgrounds of three selected European minorities living in Kazakhstan (Germans, Russians and Ukrainians) with their country of origin. This comparison shows a big difference for German nationality, for Russians and Ukrainians the differences are minimal. The concept of avoidable mortality was also used for comparison mortality conditions in selected countries. The results show a low level of health care system in Kazakhstan. The analysis shows a clear gap in Kazakhstan levels of mortality in comparison with selected European countries and nations. Keywords: Kazakhstan, The...

Regional Differences in Healthy Life Expectancy in Czechia Abstract Over the past decade, the health status of the population has also been measured by Healthy Life Expectancy indicator. This indicator covers not only the quantitative aspect, but it takes into the account also the qualitative aspect of prolonging human life. The main objective of this thesis is to evaluate the differences in healthy life expectancy among the regions of Czechia, both in terms of space and time (2009-2014). The introductory part of the thesis outlines the connections of the origin of the healthy life expectancy indicator and analyses the methods of its construction. The theoretical part of the thesis also includes description of sample surveys. To calculate healthy life years, the Sullivan method is used. Data on health status were obtained from the SILC survey. According to the results of the analysis, there is considerable variability between regions in terms of healthy life expectancy. The difference is significantly higher in terms of healthy life expectancy than in the case of life expectancy. A more detailed analysis of the distribution of the healthy life expectancy values has revealed that there is a certain "paradox" of healthy life expectancy in relation to life expectancy, since there are regions where the high...

Demographic differentiation according to community size in Slovakia and the Czech Republic Abstract The aim of this work is to evaluate selected demographic indicators in the individual community size in Slovakia and the Czech Republic. The first part is to compare the long-term trends of fertility, abortion, natural increase and infant mortality. The aim is to evaluate changes in the development of selected indicators during the common republic and the establishment of independent states. The basis of this work is the analysis of fertility and mortality since 2000 in the community size of the Czech Republic and Slovakia, but also a comparison of selected indicators of community size between independent republics. Keywords: community size, fertility, abortion, mortality, temporary life expectancy, demographic differentiation, Slovakia, Czech Republic