<p>The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of a conditional cash transfer program, Progresa, on school attendance in Mexican rural and urban areas. Within recent years, conditional cash transfer programs have become one of the most accepted remedies for poverty alleviation in many countries. Progresa was developed as an economic experi-ment, with randomized selection process, treatment groups and control croups. For this reason, the impact of Progresa is ideal for economic analysis. There are clear evidence of disparities between urban and rural school attendance rates in Mexico, hence the pro-gram’s effect on school attendance rates have been studied in the two regions. There are several reasons why one would expect different outcomes of the program on school at-tendance in rural and urban areas. Expected returns to education and the opportunity cost of investment in schooling in different regions are thought to affect the household’s optimization problem differently. The impact of Progresa on school attendance rates is estimated by a logit regression model analyzing household data within the household optimization framework. Mainly, Progresa has a positive impact on children’s school at-tendance. However, it may be concluded that Progresa has no significant effect for older children in rural areas. This result is assumed to be explained by the different conditions poor families face in different regions. If rural households’ optimization problem indeed looks different; this might suggest that the design of conditional cash transfer programs such as Progresa is crucially important depending on the region of implementation.</p> / <p>Syftet med denna uppsats är att analysera det villkora välfärdsprogrammet Progresa och dess effekt på skolnärvaro i mexikanska rurala och urbana områden. Under senare år har villkora välfärdsprogram kommit att vara en av de mest accepterade formerna av bistånd för att minska fattigdom i de flesta länder. Progresa utvecklades utifrån ett ekonomiskt experiment, med en slumpmässig urvalsprocess samt en experiment- och kontrollgrupp. Med anledning av detta är Progresa ett utmärkt program att studera för ekonomisk analys. Skolnärvaron i mexikanska rurala och urbana områden varierar stort och av denna anledning har effekten av Progresa studerats i de båda regionerna. Det finns många anledningar till varför vi bör förvänta oss avvikande utfall. En förklaring kan vara att utbildningens förväntade avkastning och alternativkostnad påverkar hushållens optimeringsproblem olika. Effekten av Progresa på skolnärvaro är beräknad med en logit regressionsmodell där hushållsdata analyseras inom ramen för hushållets optimeringsproblem. Huvudsakligen har Progresa en positiv effekt på barns skolnärvaro. Dock, och vad som bör noteras, är det faktum att Progresa inte har en signifikant påverkan på äldre rurala barns skolnärvaro. Detta resultat antas förklaras av fattiga familjers olika förutsättningar i rurala och urbana områden. I det fall rurala familjers optimeringsproblem skiljer sig från urbana familjers optimeringsproblem, torde detta innebära att strukturen av ett villkorligt biståndsprogram, så som Progresa, är av största vikt och bör anpassas ändamålsenligt.</p>

為因應新巴賽爾資本協定(BaselⅡ)於2007年開始實施，金管會與各大銀行莫不致力於相關作業流程與法規的修訂。根據巴賽爾監理委員會統計，銀行面對的風險以信用風險占60%的比重最高，可見信用風險對銀行風險控管的重要性。 依BaselⅡ信用風險內部評等法的規範，銀行對每個授信戶均需估計一個一年期的違約機率(PD)。針對銀行對企業的授信放款，本研究採用計量模型Logistic Regression model建置企業信用風險預警模型，並與Altman(1983)的Z-score model比較其模型預測能力，以期降低專家意見法最為人所詬病的缺乏一致性與客觀性的問題。 / 研究結果顯示，以財務變數加上公司治理變數並以規模為控制變數的logistic regression model比Altman(1983)提出的Z-score model更能有效降低型一誤差和型二誤差並提高整體的歸類正確率；在危機發生前一年、前兩年，財務變數仍具有鑑別力；但在財務危機發生前三年所有的財務變數已不具鑑別力，反而是公司治理變數較具鑑別力，故可知財務數據為落後指標，公司治理變數為鑑別企業發生財務危機事件的領先指標。實證結果證明，若企業長期公司治理不佳將不利於公司經營獲利。

The purpose of this investigation was to compare the efficacy of three methods for detecting differential item functioning (DIF). The performance of the crossing simultaneous item bias test (CSIBTEST), the item response theory likelihood ratio test (IRT-LR), and logistic regression (LOGREG) was examined across a range of experimental conditions including different test lengths, sample sizes, DIF and differential test functioning (DTF) magnitudes, and mean differences in the underlying trait distributions of comparison groups, herein referred to as the reference and focal groups. In addition, each procedure was implemented using both an all-other anchor approach, in which the IRT-LR baseline model, CSIBEST matching subtest, and LOGREG trait estimate were based on all test items except for the one under study, and a constant anchor approach, in which the baseline model, matching subtest, and trait estimate were based on a predefined subset of DIF-free items. Response data for the reference and focal groups were generated using known item parameters based on the three-parameter logistic item response theory model (3-PLM). Various types of DIF were simulated by shifting the generating item parameters of select items to achieve desired DIF and DTF magnitudes based on the area between the groups' item response functions. Power, Type I error, and Type III error rates were computed for each experimental condition based on 100 replications and effects analyzed via ANOVA. Results indicated that the procedures varied in efficacy, with LOGREG when implemented using an all-other approach providing the best balance of power and Type I error rate. However, none of the procedures were effective at identifying the type of DIF that was simulated.

Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) microscopy is a sensitive method for detecting difference in the morphology of biological cells. In this study FTIR spectra were obtained for uninfected cells, and cells infected with two different viruses. The spectra obtained are difficult to discriminate visually. Here we apply advanced statistical methods to the analysis of the spectra, to test if such spectra are useful for diagnosing viral infections in cells. Logistic Regression (LR) and Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) were used to build models which allow us to diagnose if spectral differences are related to infection state of the cells. A three-fold, balanced cross-validation method was applied to estimate the shrinkages of the area under the receiving operator characteristic curve (AUC), and specificities at sensitivities of 95%, 90% and 80%. AUC, sensitivity and specificity were used to gauge the goodness of the discrimination methods. Our statistical results shows that the spectra associated with different cellular states are very effectively discriminated. We also find that the overall performance of PLSR is better than that of LR, especially for new data validation. Our analysis supports the idea that FTIR microscopy is a useful tool for detection of viral infections in biological cells.

Background. Police work is a stressful occupation with frequent exposure to traumatic events and psychological strain from work might increase the risk of burnout. This thesis focuses on patrolling police officers (PPO), who work most of their time in the community and have daily contact with the public. Since police work traditionally is a male coded occupation we assume that there are differences between women and men in burnout as well as experiences from psychosocial work environment. Aim. The overall aim of this thesis is to explore burnout, psychosocial and physical work environment, coping strategies, and stress of conscience when taking gender into consideration among patrolling police officers. Methods. This thesis employs both qualitative and quantitative methods. In Paper I a qualitative approach with narrative interviews was used where male PPO described experiences of traumatic situations when caring for victims of traffic accidents. A convenience sample of nine male PPO from a mid-sized police authority was recruited. Interviews were analyzed using qualitative content analysis. Papers II, III, and IV were based on a cross-sectional survey from a randomly selected sample stratified for gender from all 21 local police authorities in Sweden. In the final sample, 1554 PPOs were invited (778 women, 776 men), response rate was 55% (n=856) in total, 56% for women (n=437) and 53% for men (n=419). The survey included a self-administered questionnaire based on instruments measuring burnout, stress of conscience, psychosocial and physical work environment, and coping. Results. Findings from Paper I were presented in three themes; “being secure with the support system,” “being confident about prior successful actions,” and “being burdened with uncertainty.” Results from Paper II showed high levels of emotional exhaustion (EE), 30% for female PPOs and 26% for male PPOs. High levels of depersonalization (DP) were reported for 52 % of female PPO, corresponding proportions for male were 60%. Multiple logistic regression showed that stress of conscience (SCQ-A), high demand, and organizational climate increased the risk of EE for female PPO. For male PPO stress of conscience (SCQ-A), low control and high demand increased the risk of EE. Independent of gender, stress of conscience (SCQ-A) increased the risk of DP. Psychometric properties of the WOCQ were investigated with exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis, a six-factor solution was confirmed. DIF analysis was detected for a third of the items in relation to gender. In Paper IV a block wise hierarchical multiple regression analysis was performed investigating the predictive impact of psychological demand, decision latitude, social support, coping strategies, and stress of conscience on EE as well as DP. Findings revealed that, regardless of gender, risk of EE and DP increased with a troubled conscience amongst the PPO. Conclusion. “Being burdened with uncertainty” in this male-dominated context indicate that the PPO did not feel confident talking about traumatic situations, which might influence their coping strategies when arriving to a similar situation. This finding can be related to Paper II and IV showing that stress of conscience increased the risk of both EE and DP. The associations between troubled conscience and the risk of experiencing both emotional exhaustion and depersonalization indicate that stress of conscience should be considered when studying the influence of the psychosocial work environment on burnout. Results from this study show that the psychosocial work environment is not satisfying and needs improvement for patrolling police officers in Sweden. Further studies including both qualitative and quantitative (longitudinal) methods should be used to improve knowledge in this area to increase conditions for preventive and rehabilitative actions.

Dans ce mémoire, nous proposons une méthodologie statistique permettant d’obtenir un estimateur de l’espérance de vie des clients en assurance. Les prédictions effectuées tiennent compte des caractéristiques individuelles des clients, notamment du fait qu’ils peuvent détenir différents types de produits d’assurance (automobile, résidentielle ou les deux). Trois approches sont comparées. La première approche est le modèle de Markov simple, qui suppose à la fois l’homogénéité et la stationnarité des probabilités de transition. L’autre modèle – qui a été implémenté par deux approches, soit une approche directe et une approche par simulations – tient compte de l’hétérogénéité des probabilités de transition, ce qui permet d’effectuer des prédictions qui évoluent avec les caractéristiques des individus dans le temps. Les probabilités de transition de ce modèle sont estimées par des régressions logistiques multinomiales. / In this master’s thesis, we develop a statistical method to estimate the lifetime expectancy of clients in the insurance domain. The forecasts are personnalized according to the clients’ own features, the most notable being the fact that they can have any combination of automobile and residential insurance products. Three approaches are compared. The first approach is the simple Markov model which assume homogeneity and stationnarity of the transition probabilities. The other model suggested – which is implemented both by direct computation and by simulation – allows for heterogeneity of the transition probabilities, thus providing forecasts which evolve in time along with the characteristics of the clients. The transitions probabilities are estimated using multinomial logistic regressions.

Mirtingumo nuo įvairių ligų įvertinimas ir prognozavimas pagal atlikto tyrimo duomenis – dažnas statistinės analizės uždavinys medicinoje. Juose siekiama prognozuoti tikėtiną mirčių nuo tiriamos ligos skaičių, susirgimo tam tikra liga tikimybę ar išskirti rizikos grupes, įvertinant tyrimo metu surinktų stebimos populiacijos imties kintamųjų duomenis ir nustatant, kokia priklausomybę juos sieja. Pagrindiniai šio darbo tikslai: susipažinti su statistikos metodais, taikomais mirtingumo duomenų analizei; sudaryti statistinės analizės modelius turimiems mirtingumo duomenims; realizuoti sudarytus modelius programiškai, panaudojant SAS sistemą ir SAS makro programavimo galimybes. Panaudojus Puasono, logistinės ir Kokso regresin��s analizės metodus sudaryti mirtingumo nuo galvos smegenų insulto (GSI) prognozavimo modeliai. Sudaryti modeliai realizuoti programiškai, panaudojus SAS programavimo kalbą, SAS/IML posistemės galimybes ir SAS makro programavimo priemones. Sukurti regresinės analizės modeliai ir programines priemonės panaudotos Kauno medicinos universiteto Kardiologijos instituto 1980-2004 metais atliktų tyrimų metu surinktų Kauno miesto 25-64 m. amžiaus gyventojų mirtingumo nuo GSI duomenų analizei atlikti. / Estimation and forecasting of mortality from various diseases are very frequent data analysis tasks in medicine nowadays. In order to estimate expected number of deaths, probability to die from a disease or trends in mortality we should apply the most suitable statistical methods. Data analysis models were created using Poisson, logistic, Cox regression methods and realized in SAS macros. Created software also contains models for goodness of fit analysis, graphical visualization and prepares a report of data analysis in RTF (Rich Text Format) format. Analysis was made for mortality from stroke data among Kaunas population aged 25 to 64 during the period 1980-2004. The study contains the description of applying created data analysis models, SAS macros and received results.

Innovative ways to conduct disease surveillance are required to address the complexity of Ciguatera Fish Poisoning (CFP). Mixed methods were employed to explore CFP epidemiology and interdisciplinary approaches to its surveillance in the Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI). Quantitative analyses of cross-sectional data collected by the TCI’s National Epidemiology and Research Unit in 2010 demonstrated that a low percentage of residents reported lifetime histories of illness following fish consumption (3.9%). Furthermore, gender, age, island, and home remedy use were significantly associated with reported clinic visitation by ill individuals. Next, a multisectoral CFP surveillance model was conceptualized. A qualitative exploration of the model’s hypothetical integration into TCI’s health system revealed that several systemic and contextual factors could influence the future uptake of interdisciplinary CFP surveillance. Targeted interventions are recommended to improve national CFP surveillance and to facilitate the growth of interdisciplinary networks between stakeholders from TCI’s health, fisheries and environment sectors. / Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Ministry of Health and Human Resources of the Turks and Caicos

Human biotherapy (HBT) or fecal transplants have been shown to be an effective treatment for patients with recurrent Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). This study examines the microbial populations present in CDI patients pre- and post-HBT by extracting bacterial DNA from stool samples and performing pyrosequencing of the 16S rRNA gene. We then compared these microbial populations to those of the donors. We examined 19 pairs of patient samples, of which 14 were clinically cured of CDI, and 5 patients were failures. The successful treatment of CDI was associated with an increase in diversity and richness of the patient's fecal microbiome. The majority of those cured showed an increase in the proportion of Firmicutes and decrease in the proportion of Proteobacteria, although varying antibiotic exposure and innate variability between patients was observed. / MSc thesis / NSERC, CIHR, St. Joseph's Healthcare Hamilton

<p>The main objective of this study was to identify ways in which transaction costs can be lowered to improve small-scale farmers&rsquo / participation in and returns from agricultural output markets, with specific reference to small-scale mango farmers in Limpopo province. This study hypothesizes that transaction costs are lower in informal spot markets and increase when small-scale farmers sell in more structured markets (formal markets). This study builds on transaction cost economics (TCE) to demonstrate how to overcome transaction cost barriers that small-scale mango farmers face in the agro-food markets. The approach to collect primary information was sequenced in two steps: first, key informant and focus group interviews were conducted and, secondly, a structured survey instrument was administered in two districts of Limpopo. A total of 235 smallscale mango farmers were interviewed. A binary logistic regression model was used to estimate the impact of transaction costs on the likelihood of households&rsquo / participation in formal (=1) and informal (=0) agro-food markets. STATA Version 10 was used to analyse the data. This study found that a larger proportion of male than female farming households reported participation in the formal markets, suggesting deep-seated gender differentiation in market participation. The average age of small farmers participating in formal markets is 52, compared to 44 for those in informal markets, implying that older farmers might have established stronger networks and acquired experience over a longer period. Farmers staying very far from the densely populated towns (more than 50 km) participate less in the formal markets than those staying closer (0 &ndash / 25 km and 26 &ndash / 49 km), which implies that the further they are from the towns, the less the likelihood of farmers selling in the formal markets. Farmers who own storage facilities and a bakkie (transportation means) participate more in formal markets compared to those who do not own these assets, which suggests that these farmers are able to store mangoes, retaining their freshness and subsequently delivering them to various agro-food markets on time. Households that participate in formal markets have high mean values of income and social grants. However, this study found that the likelihood of a household&rsquo / s participation in the markets is less as income and social grants increase. This suggests that households do not invest their financial assets in order to overcome market access barriers. A large proportion of households that own larger pieces of arable land participate in the formal markets, which implies that they are able to produce marketable surplus. Households that have a high mean value (in Rand) of cattle participate more in formal markets than in informal markets. However, this study found that the likelihood of a household&rsquo / s participation in the markets does not change with an increase in the value of its livestock. These findings suggest that households do not sell their cattle in order to overcome market access barriers. Reduced transaction costs for small-scale mango farmers in Limpopo should improve their participation in and returns from the agro-food markets. Policy interventions to support this need to focus on: access to storage and transportation facilities, enforcement of gender equity requirements in existing policies, and better access to information about markets.</p>