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When the new South African government took power in 1994, the United States (US) pictured a bright future with a strategic country. They envisioned a strong partnership in political, economic and security realms. Although the US has consistently labeled their bilateral relationship with South Africa as ‘excellent,’ government officials from both countries at the end of 2008 expressed concern about the perceived crisis that US-South African relations was in. Against this backdrop, this thesis explores the bilateral relationship between the US, a global power, and South Africa, a regional power, assessing the key issues from 1994-2008. This thesis attempts to achieve an understanding of the relationship by using a new paradigm developed by Professor Brantly Womack of the University of Virginia (US), entitled asymmetry theory. His theory, which was developed after decades of studying the political landscape between states in Southeast Asia, addresses the effects of national disparities on asymmetric bilateral relationships. This thesis breaks new ground by testing Womack’s asymmetry theory in relation to the US and South Africa, two countries located outside the continent of Asia. Moreover, this is the first study where the theory has been applied to a relationship between a global and regional power. This thesis argues that there was a considerable downward swing in US-South African relations during the Bush Administration due to the confliction of several vital principles in each country’s foreign policy, the structural implications of asymmetry, and the lack of an institution were US and South African government officials could quickly communicate to clarify any disputes or misperceptions that may have arisen. This thesis argues that the bilateral relationship has changed from normalization to normalcy throughout the time period although there are still significant hurdles to overcome in the future. Additionally, this thesis argues that the value of asymmetry theory has proven itself in its illumination of the dynamics of the relationship. / Political Sciences / D. Litt. et Phil. (International Politics)

Esta tese trata de crédito, não da análise dos demonstrativos financeiros, e sim a partir do momento em que o resultado de uma análise criteriosa e competente é colocada à disposição do comitê para decidir pela concessão ou não do crédito. A decisão de crédito é nosso enfoque principal. A tese está dividida em quatro partes. Na primeira parte fazemos uma revisão bibliográfica sobre crédito, dos fundamentos históricos à aplicação de modelos sofisticados de administração de carteiras (o Creditmetrics), passando pelo Estado da Arte das técnicas de credit scoring. A segunda parte trata dos fundamentos da teoria da análise da decisão, onde discutimos e analisamos o comportamento político e racional nas organizações, e os principais problemas decorrentes de atitudes indesejáveis como escalation, groupthink e bandwagon. A terceira parte discorre, inicialmente, sobre a pesquisa e sua metodologia, apresentando as hipóteses a serem testadas. Na seqüência, com base em dezoito entrevistas com diretores das principais entidades bancárias do país, descrevemos o processo geral para a concessão de crédito para grandes corporações e analisamos sete casos de concessões de crédito malsucedidas. Finalmente, com uma amostra de 54 bancos, realizamos a análise estatística dos resultados buscando comprovar nossas hipóteses de pesquisa. Na quarta e última parte apresentamos o sumário e conclusões da tese. Podemos destacar a relevância dos aspectos comportamentais, como fundamento da tomada de decisão e crédito: os testes realizados comprovam a influência do comportamento racional como redutor do índice de inadimplência; enquanto os sintomas de comportamento político, escalation e groupthink contribuem para o aumento do índice de inadimplência. / This thesis is concerned with credit decision and not with financial statements analysis. More specifically, it is focused on the decision making process of the credit committee once the results of a competent anlysis is avalaible. The thesis is divided in four parts. In the first we present a review about credit, from its historical developments up to the applications of sophisticated portfolio management models and other modern techniques. The second part deals with the fundamentals of decision theory. We discuss ans analyze political and rational decision behaviors within organizations, and phenomenon such as escalation, groupthink and bandwagon. The third part presents, initially, the research problem, its methodology and the hypothesis to be tested. Subsequently, based on eighteen interviews with bank executives in Brazil, we describe the decision processes employed in the concession of credits to large corporations. We also analyze seven cases of unsuccessful credit decisions. Finally we present the statistical analysis of a survey by questionnaires from 54 Brazilian banks. In the fourth and last part we present the conclusions of this thesis. The key results in the importance of behavioral aspects in the credit decision processes: the statistical tests confirm that the rational behavior mitigates the bankruptcy index; while the political behavior, escalation and groupthink contribute to an increment of the banruptcy index.

Cette thèse analyse la socialisation politique de 92,6% des eurodéputés polonais au Parlement européen pendant leur premier mandat entre 2004 et 2009. Son objectif est de comprendre ce processus en détail dans cette institution par définition, supranationale et pro-européenne - et donc de préciser concrètement quels acteurs politiques (première partie) se conforment à quoi, pourquoi, où, en combien de temps, comment, grâce à qui ou quoi (seconde partie) et jusqu’à quel point (troisième partie). L’étude montre que la socialisation politique pendant les cinq premières années n’est pas un processus très puissant car elle provoque seulement l’ajustement aux spécificités formelles et informelles de la vie quotidienne et, possiblement, l’approfondissement plus ou moins léger des attitudes et du comportement de base (dans un sens pro- ou anti- européen, en fonction de l’orientation). Autrement dit, elle transforme les novices en experts mais pas en natifs. Soit elle n’intervient que partiellement et il serait alors préférable de qualifier ce qui se passe réellement tout simplement d’intégration politique et non de socialisation politique soit elle nécessite plus de cinq ans, en commençant par l’acquisition des spécificités europarlementaires, puisque cette étape-ci prend déjà parfois même tout le mandat. / This thesis analyses the political socialization of 92.6% of the Polish Members of the European Parliament during their first mandate from 2004 to 2009. Its aim is to understand in full this process in this institution which is by definition supranational and pro-European and therefore to specify concretely which political actors (first part) comply with what, why, where, how long, how, thanks to whom or what (second part) and to what extent (third part). The study shows that political socialization in the first five years is not a very powerful process as it causes only the adjustment to everyday formal and informal specificities and, possibly, a more or less weak deepening of initial attitudes and behavior (in a pro or anti-European sense, according to the orientation). In other words, the process turns newcomers into experts without making them natives. It either occurs only in part, in which case it would be preferable to characterize what actually happens simply as political integration and not as political socialization, or it takes more than five years, starting with the acquisition of Euro-parliamentary specificities, as this stage sometimes already takes the whole mandate.

Reduzir o abismo que separa representante e representado tem sido um dos desafios à democracia. O conceito de electoral accountability, ou responsabilização eleitoral, poderia ser um instrumento que melhoraria a qualidade da representação. Contudo, há claros limites para o seu desenvolvimento, entre eles, a necessidade de eleitores informados politicamente. Além disso, parte da literatura argumenta que o conceito é um valor normativo somente em arranjos institucionais majoritários. Assim, este trabalho objetiva analisar a responsabilização eleitoral no Brasil, através do nível informacional presente no eleitorado. Ao utilizar o Estudo Eleitoral Brasileiro de 2002 (ESEB), examina-se o grau em que as pessoas são politicamente informadas e como isto altera padrões de comportamento político, incluindo a percepção sobre a legitimidade do sistema político. Concluímos que pessoas com maior capacidade de responsabilização eleitoral possuem um comportamento político diferenciado e têm maior probabilidade de perceberem a democracia como sendo legítima. Argumentamos, ainda, que o conceito de responsabilização eleitoral deve ser valorizado em todas as democracias, independente do arranjo institucional. / Reduce the gulf between representative and voter has been one of challenges to democracy. The concept of electoral accountability could be a tool to improve the quality of representation. However, there are clear limits to its development, including the need to politically informed voters. Furthermore, the literature argues that the concept is a normative value only in institutional arrangements majority. Therefore, this work aims to analyze the electoral accountability in Brazil, through the informational level in electorate. Using the Brazilian Electoral Study of 2002, we examined the degree to which people are politically informed and how this alters patterns of political behavior, including the perception about the legitimacy of political system. We conclude that people with bigger capacity of electoral accountability have a different political behavior and are more likely to perceive democracy as legitimate. We argue that concept of electoral accountability should be enhanced in all democracies, regardless of institutional arrangement.

When the new South African government took power in 1994, the United States (US) pictured a bright future with a strategic country. They envisioned a strong partnership in political, economic and security realms. Although the US has consistently labeled their bilateral relationship with South Africa as ‘excellent,’ government officials from both countries at the end of 2008 expressed concern about the perceived crisis that US-South African relations was in. Against this backdrop, this thesis explores the bilateral relationship between the US, a global power, and South Africa, a regional power, assessing the key issues from 1994-2008. This thesis attempts to achieve an understanding of the relationship by using a new paradigm developed by Professor Brantly Womack of the University of Virginia (US), entitled asymmetry theory. His theory, which was developed after decades of studying the political landscape between states in Southeast Asia, addresses the effects of national disparities on asymmetric bilateral relationships. This thesis breaks new ground by testing Womack’s asymmetry theory in relation to the US and South Africa, two countries located outside the continent of Asia. Moreover, this is the first study where the theory has been applied to a relationship between a global and regional power. This thesis argues that there was a considerable downward swing in US-South African relations during the Bush Administration due to the confliction of several vital principles in each country’s foreign policy, the structural implications of asymmetry, and the lack of an institution were US and South African government officials could quickly communicate to clarify any disputes or misperceptions that may have arisen. This thesis argues that the bilateral relationship has changed from normalization to normalcy throughout the time period although there are still significant hurdles to overcome in the future. Additionally, this thesis argues that the value of asymmetry theory has proven itself in its illumination of the dynamics of the relationship. / Political Sciences / D. Litt. et Phil. (International Politics)

Reduzir o abismo que separa representante e representado tem sido um dos desafios à democracia. O conceito de electoral accountability, ou responsabilização eleitoral, poderia ser um instrumento que melhoraria a qualidade da representação. Contudo, há claros limites para o seu desenvolvimento, entre eles, a necessidade de eleitores informados politicamente. Além disso, parte da literatura argumenta que o conceito é um valor normativo somente em arranjos institucionais majoritários. Assim, este trabalho objetiva analisar a responsabilização eleitoral no Brasil, através do nível informacional presente no eleitorado. Ao utilizar o Estudo Eleitoral Brasileiro de 2002 (ESEB), examina-se o grau em que as pessoas são politicamente informadas e como isto altera padrões de comportamento político, incluindo a percepção sobre a legitimidade do sistema político. Concluímos que pessoas com maior capacidade de responsabilização eleitoral possuem um comportamento político diferenciado e têm maior probabilidade de perceberem a democracia como sendo legítima. Argumentamos, ainda, que o conceito de responsabilização eleitoral deve ser valorizado em todas as democracias, independente do arranjo institucional. / Reduce the gulf between representative and voter has been one of challenges to democracy. The concept of electoral accountability could be a tool to improve the quality of representation. However, there are clear limits to its development, including the need to politically informed voters. Furthermore, the literature argues that the concept is a normative value only in institutional arrangements majority. Therefore, this work aims to analyze the electoral accountability in Brazil, through the informational level in electorate. Using the Brazilian Electoral Study of 2002, we examined the degree to which people are politically informed and how this alters patterns of political behavior, including the perception about the legitimacy of political system. We conclude that people with bigger capacity of electoral accountability have a different political behavior and are more likely to perceive democracy as legitimate. We argue that concept of electoral accountability should be enhanced in all democracies, regardless of institutional arrangement.