The existing environmental threats and the ever increasing global dependence on electric power highlight the importance of producing power in a sustainable manner. In accordance, it is vital to attract investments in electricity generation projects based on renewable energy sources, also called renewable energy projects (REP). This poses a challenge, as REP tend to be less financially competitive than their fossil fuel based counterparts. Moreover, the power grid has to be upgraded to integrate large amounts of RESs in an efficient and economic manner. An appealing alternative to enhance the financial appealing of REP is to improve the techniques used for their assessment. These tools produce robust and economically sound assessments, but tend to undervalue REP and other projects under uncertainty, as they neglect the flexibility of the projects to be adjusted in response to uncertainty. This can be corrected by extending the tools with the aid of real options (RO) theory. RO theory can be used to extend assessment techniques to value flexibility derived from the projects, their management, and even their environment, which can be used to enhance the financial value of REP in the changing power sector. In addition, the scope of RO theory is increasing to address flexibility in the design of the projects. Therefore, the theory can drive investments in REP and motivate the design of more profitable projects. This research project seeks to analyse the potential of RO theory to increase the financial worth of different types of REP in the current and changing power sector. The novelties of this research are that it expands RO theory by addressing the flexibility within the design of the projects, the potential of RO theory to manage uncertainties that are exclusive to the projects or typical in the power sector, and other relevant areas of research interest. The research produced several RO methodologies to model the planning, operation, and design of hydropower projects, wind power projects, and solar photovoltaic projects in existing power sector environments and environments characterised by high penetration of RESs and consumers with demand response capabilities. The results demonstrate the applicability of RO theory to enhance the financial value of different types of REP under a wide range of circumstances.

[pt] A indústria eletrônica cada vez mais adquire importância na economia mundial. O uso de partes e peças eletrônicas deixou de ser exclusivo da informática e passou a permear setores diversos. Cresce a relevância da atração de investimentos em circuitos integrados para a manutenção da diferenciação, dos investimentos em pesquisa e desenvolvimento e até mesmo da competitividade da indústria brasileira. Neste contexto, este trabalho pretende avaliar uma oportunidade de investimento no desenvolvimento de uma planta de circuitos integrados no Brasil utilizando um exemplo numérico. Dadas as diversas incertezas em um projeto deste tipo, foi utilizada a metodologia de opções reais para analisar o investimento em um start-up de circuitos integrados. Ressalta-se que a volatilidade do retorno de uma base de empresas do setor foi considerada como proxy para a volatilidade do ativo-objeto, o fluxo de caixa de uma empresa de circuitos integrados instalada no Brasil. Assim, implementou-se uma metodologia para a obtenção da volatilidade de um projeto de start-up. De posse da volatilidade estimada, o valor das opções reais foram calculados com base no modelo binomial proposto por Cox, Ross & Rubinstein. Os resultados demonstram que a incorporação das incertezas e a análise das opções de espera e de expansão trazem valor significativo ao projeto. / [en] Electronic industry is getting more important in world economy. The use of electronic parts is not an exclusive use of information technology but also of many sectors. It is becoming more important to attract investments in integrated circuits in order to differentiate products, to invest in research and development and even to increase brasilian industry competitiveness. In this context, this study intends to evaluate an investment opportunity of an integrated circuits company with a numeric example. Considering many uncertainties that exist on a project like this, real options theory was used in order to analyse an integrated circuits start-up investment. It is important to mention that the volatility of the return of a group of companies was used as a proxy to obtain the underlying risky asset volatility, as the underlying risky asset is the cash flow of an integrated circuits company built in Brazil. Therefore, this methodology was implemented to find a start-up project volatility. With this estimated volatility, the real options values were calculated based on the binomial model proposed by Cox, Ross & Rubinstein. Results show that incorporating uncertainties and analysing wait and expansion options raise substantial value to the project.

[pt] Contratos de afretamento de FPSO, tipicamente contêm cláusulas de extensão de prazo após um número fixo de anos, sendo que o exercício dessas opções de extensão é prerrogativa da empresa de Exploração e Produção (E e P) que contrata o ativo. Dado que esta flexibilidade gerencial não é capturada pelos métodos tradicionais de avaliação de projetos como o método do Fluxo de Caixa Descontado, um desafio surge: como definir o valor do projeto dado que existem opções de extensão contratual? Neste trabalho foi utilizada a TOR (Teoria de Opções Reais) para analisar o valor das opções sob o ponto de vista do afretador da FPSO, considerando que o exercício destas opções resulta no recebimento, por parte do afretador, de fluxos de caixa adicionais ao final do período fixo de anos estabelecido no contrato. Diferentemente do tratamento padrão de valor de opções encontrado na literatura, neste caso agrega-se valor também ao afretador da FPSO apesar deste estar na posição vendida no contrato. Foram utilizados dois processos estocásticos distintos para a modelagem das incertezas e precificação das opções. O primeiro utilizou como base o MGB (Movimento Geométrico Browniano) e o segundo o MRM (Movimento de Reversão à Média). Os resultados encontrados em ambos os modelos sugerem que a precificação das opções de extensão agrega valor ao contrato e consequentemente pode tornar o afretador da FPSO mais competitivo no processo concorrencial, uma vez que é possível o compartilhamento de parte desse valor adicional com a empresa de E e P através da redução do valor da taxa de afretamento da FPSO. / [en] FPSO contracts tipically include clauses that allow contractual extensions after a fixed period of time. The exercise of these extensions options are the prerogative of the Exploration and Production (E and P) company that hires the FPSO. This management flexibility is not captured by traditional valuation tools such as the Discounted Cash Flow method, and thus, the challenge is how to define the value of a project given that exist contractual extensions options. In this work we analyse the value of these options from the standpoint of an FPSO chartering firm under the Real Options approach, considering that the exercise of these options result in additional cash flows to the chartering company beyond the original contract term. Differently of traditional results in options valuation found in literature, in this case, value is added also to the chartering firm, even though the firm holds a short position in the options. Two different stochastic processes were used to model project uncertainty and option pricing. The first was based on Geometric Brownian Motion (GMB) and the second in Mean Reverting Processes (MRP). The results in both cases suggest that the valuation of contractual extensions options add value to the project, and thus to the chartering firm, and consequently may improve the competitive position of the FPSO chartering firm in a bid process, as it is possible to share part of this value with E and P company through a reduction in the cost of the charter.

[pt] As opções de geração de energia no Brasil de forma sustentável estão fortemente relacionadas às fontes de energia alternativa, em especial a biomassa. Neste estudo é analisada a viabilidade econômico-financeira de um projeto de recolhimento da palha da cana de açúcar em uma usina no Brasil que tem a flexibilidade de expandir a venda de energia, ao investir na utilização da palha como insumo na cogeração. O preço da energia elétrica é modelado como um processo geométrico de reversão à média e é aplicada a teoria de opções reais para determinar o valor das flexibilidades gerenciais. Uma vez que a decisão de recolhimento da palha é tomada, a empresa tem a opção de investir na produção de briquetes, e a partir daí, realizar o switch entre o fluxo de caixa da energia e o fluxo de caixa de briquetes. O modelo é então resolvido utilizando uma árvore binomial recombinante não censurada de reversão à média. Os resultados indicam que a flexibilidade de escolher entre a venda de energia e a venda de briquetes agrega 9,7 milhões de reais, ou 38 por cento ao valor do projeto determinístico de 25,6 milhões de reais, o que é significativo, considerando que a cogeração não é a atividade principal da usina de cana. Assim, o recolhimento da palha da cana pode ainda incentivar projetos de retrofit em usinas que de outra forma poderiam não se mostrar viáveis. / [en] Options for sustainable power generation at competitive prices in Brazil are strongly related to alternative energy sources, in particular, sugar cane biomass. In this study we analyze a cane trash recovery project for a sugarcane mill in Brazil that has the option to expand sales of surplus bioelectricity by introducing the sugarcane trash as feedstock for cogeneration. We model electricity prices as a geometric mean reverting process, and apply the real options approach to determine the value of this managerial flexibility. Once the decision to recover the cane trash has been made, the firm has the option to invest in briquetting production, that will allow it to switch between energy and briquette sales depending on the relative prices of energy and briquettes. The model is then solved using a non censored binomial mean reverting lattice. The results indicate that the flexibility to choose between energy and briquette production adds 9.7 million of reais in value, or 38 per cent to the project value of 25.6 million of reais, which is significant, considering cogeneration is not the core business of the sugarcane mill. This indicates that recovery of cane trash, which is currently wasted in the field, may represent a significant source of value for further development of bioelectricity cogeneration or briquetting production, when retrofitting older sugarcane mills.

[pt] Opções cujo ativo base paga dividendos devem ser apreçadas de maneira particular. Se os dividendos forem calculados como um percentual do valor de mercado do ativo, pequenos ajustes nos modelos como BSM e Método Binomial são suficientes. Entretanto, se o valor do dividendo for fixo, ou seja, independente do valor de mercado do ativo, há necessidade de modelagens mais complexas. A literatura disponível propõe soluções para este caso, porém com foco em ativos financeiros. Ativos reais possuem particularidades que demandam o desenvolvimento de metodologias específicas. O pagamento de dividendos ocorre quando existe um contrato privado de uso entre o detentor do ativo e outro agente. Por estar vinculado a um contrato privado, agentes externos não podem realizar operações de arbitragem. Três diferentes metodologias são descritas e avaliadas neste trabalho. Um exemplo de uma opção de venda embutida em um contrato de afretamento de 10 anos de uma embarcação é utilizado para análise dos resultados. A primeira metodologia se baseia em um dos modelos utilizados para opções financeiras e a segunda busca resolver a principal fraqueza do modelo anterior. No terceiro método é considerada a diferença entre o dividendo do contrato privado e o dividendo de mercado, que representa o valor que poderia ser recebido se firmado um novo contrato. Dentre as metodologias analisadas, a terceira é aquela que apresenta premissas e resultados mais consistentes. / [en] Options that pay dividends must be priced in a particular way. If dividends are calculated as a percentage of the asset s market value, then few adjustments in the BSM model and the Binomial Method are enough. However, if the dividend is fixed, which means that it is independent from the asset s market value, then the models are more complex. The available bibliography proposes solutions for this case, however with emphasis to financial assets. Real assets are different and demand the development of specific methodologies. The dividends payment happens when there is a private contract between the asset s owner and the other agent. Because it is related to a private contract, external agents can t make an arbitrage operation. Three different methodologies are described and evaluated in this work. An example of a put option included in a 10 year charter party of a vessel is used for analyzing the results. The first methodology is based on one of the models applied do financial options and the second aims to solve the first one main weakness. In the third method a difference between the private contract dividend and the market dividend is considered, which represents the value that could be obtained if a new contract is set. Among the methodologies analyzed, the third one presents more consistent premises and results.

This study develops a real options model of agbiotechnology and is applied to three genetically modified (GM) traits. Each trait is evaluated as growth options where technical or marketing milestones must be completed before management can exercise the option to invest further in trait development. The real options values are evaluated by employing a binomial tree which is simulated using distributions for random elements within stages of the growth option. Mean option values were negative for the discovery stage for fusarium-resistant wheat and for all but the regulatory submission stage for Roundup Ready wheat. The length of the regulatory submission stage had the greatest negative impact on the value of the option while the ability of the firm to maximize technology-use-fees had the greatest positive impact. Additionally, traits adapted to crops with larger potential market size are more likely to be in the money than traits developed for smaller market segments.

[pt] Os investimentos em infraestrutura, públicos e privados, são notoriamente essenciais à competitividade de uma economia. Hoje, o Brasil sofre com diversas limitações em políticas voltadas ao setor de infraestrutura, que contribuem de forma direta para que os produtos e serviços brasileiros sejam mais caros. Uma destas limitações reside nas condições de financiamento em projetos desta natureza. A possibilidade de se obter parte do financiamento em moeda estrangeira seria uma alternativa agradável aos investidores, no entanto, os traria um risco cambial. Este trabalho analisa uma proposta de mecanismo de cobertura cambial a ser oferecido no âmbito de parcerias público-privadas, que disponibiliza aos investidores uma opção de proteção contra a variação cambial real. Este mecanismo é interpretado como uma garantia com características de uma opção, uma vez que assume valores em função da variação da taxa de câmbio. Neste sentido, este trabalho buscou avaliar e precificar estas garantias cambiais a partir de uma abordagem por opções reais, adotando para isso dois modelos de estimação para a taxa de câmbio, um passeio aleatório com drift neutro e o modelo GARCH-M. Os resultados obtidos em ambos os modelos mostraram-se favoráveis ao governo, no entanto é possível afirmar que a adoção de uma garantia cambial com estas características ofereceria claramente maior risco ao poder concedente do que a iniciativa privada. Assim, uma forma de lidar com esse risco seria estabelecer limites com relação ao valor do financiamento a ser obtido e uma margem de segurança para o poder público em torno do fator de remuneração presente na garantia. / [en] Infrastructure investments, both public and private, are essential to the competitiveness of any economy. Currently, Brazil has several limitations in policies that are applied to the infrastructure sector, which directly contribute to make Brazilian products and services more expensive. One of these limitations arises from the financing requirements of projects of this nature. Obtaining part of the financing requirements in foreign currency would be an alternative for many investors; however, it would bring them the foreign exchange rate risk. This paper analyzes a proposal for a foreign exchange hedging mechanism to be offered in public-private partnerships scope, which provides investors with an option to hedge against the real foreign exchange fluctuation. The mechanism is perceived as a guarantee with has option-like characteristics, as its value varies as a function of the foreign exchange rate. Thus, this work sought to evaluate and price these foreign exchange rate guarantees based on a real options approach. Two exchange rate models were adopted to estimate future levels: a random geometric stochastic drift-free model and the GARCH-M model. The results obtained by both models indicated that use of this guarantee is favorable to the government. However it is possible that the proposal of a foreign exchange guarantee with these features could present a greater risk to the government than to the private partner. Therefore, one way to deal with this risk would be to establish a limit on the total amount obtained through the financing and a safety margin regarding the guarantees remuneration factor.

L’objectif de cette thèse est de développer des modèles quantitatifs utilisant les options réelles pour une évaluation financière des choix stratégiques entrepreneuriaux. Cependant, il ne s’agit pas seulement de développer des aspects techniques (ou manipulations mathématiques). Les modèles proposés dans la thèse visent également à fournir des informations pratiques utiles à la fois aux entrepreneurs et aux investisseurs, afin de faciliter la prise de décision dans les négociations contractuelles pour le financement et l'investissement dans les start-ups et les firmes entrepreneuriales.Cette thèse se compose de deux parties. La première partie définit les concepts utilisés afférents à la question de recherche. L’adoption de la perspective proposée par la finance entrepreneuriale nous permet de centrer notre approche sur la négociation et une relation d'égalité entre les participants dans le processus de prise de décision, alors que la finance d’entreprise traditionnelle s’intéresse à la relation principal-agent. En effet, les méthodes généralement utilisées comme les cash-flows actualisés (DCF) ou le Taux de Rendement Interne (TRI) ne sont pas adéquates pour effectuer une évaluation financière dans un contexte entrepreneurial. Ainsi, la problématique de cette thèse peut être formulée de la manière suivante : Comment les choix stratégiques des start-ups et firmes entrepreneuriales devraient-ils être évalués dans le cadre des négociations contractuelles ?Afin de traiter cette problématique, trois problèmes particuliers seront exposés dans la deuxième partie. Nous proposerons de les étudier à partir de l’approche par les options réelles qui convient parfaitement à l'analyse des choix stratégiques dans un contexte de finance entrepreneuriale.Le premier article analyse l’évaluation d’un contrat de licence dans le secteur biopharmaceutique. En résumé, lors de la conclusion d’un contrat de licence, les dirigeants et les responsables de la négociation doivent prendre en compte de nombreux facteurs tels que la phase de développement, la prévision des coûts d'investissement et la volatilité des marchés. De plus, la prise en compte des interactions comportementales des deux parties lors de la négociation du contrat de licence est essentielle pour la construction d'un modèle de simulation, notamment en ce qui concerne l’interaction dynamique entre le donneur de licence et le preneur de licence.Le deuxième article s’intéresse à la question de la dilution pour les nouveaux actionnaires lors du deuxième tour de financement en présence de détenteurs d’obligations convertibles. Selon les résultats de la simulation, il est possible de vérifier que le taux de « discount » et le « valuation cap » ont un impact important sur le coût de la prise de décision en matière d’investissement en actions. Les résultats montrent également que plus le taux de discount est élevé et moins le valuation cap est important, plus les coûts sont élevés, et la probabilité de succès de la négociation devient donc faible. Par conséquent, l’entrepreneur doit en tenir compte lorsqu’il entre en négociation lors du deuxième tour de financement.Le troisième article aborde le choix d’une stratégie de sortie pour un entrepreneur (acquisition ou introduction en bourse) notamment « The IPO valuation premium puzzle » proposé par Bayar et Chemmanur (2011). Bien qu'il soit normal que l’entrepreneur et les investisseurs en capital-risque envisagent l’introduction en bourse, il est également possible qu'ils choisissent l'acquisition comme stratégie de sortie. En utilisant la théorie des jeux, ce phénomène contradictoire peut être expliqué par l’existence de deux équilibres de Nash. En complément de la gestion des risques afférents au marché, l’entrepreneur doit prêter attention à la relation avec le capital-risqueur lorsqu’il choisit la stratégie de sortie. / The objective of this dissertation is to develop the quantitative models that adopt the real options analysis for financially evaluating the entrepreneurial strategic choices. However, it does not only focus on the technical aspects (or its mathematical methodologies). The models proposed in the dissertation aim to provide the practically useful information in order for both entrepreneurs and investors to make decisions in the contractual negotiation of financing and investing in the start-ups and ventures.This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part gives the definitions of the essential concepts that shall be incorporated into the research question. Adopting the perspectives that are provided in entrepreneurial finance leads us to focus on the fair negotiations among participants in the process of decision-making, while the traditional corporate finance emphasises the principal-agent problem. Actually, the common methods, such as Discounted Cash-Flows and Internal Rate of Return, are not always suitable for implementing financial valuations in the context of entrepreneurial finance. Therefore, the research question of this dissertation can be set as follows: How should strategic choices in contract negotiation be financially evaluated?In order to deal with this problem, three particular issues are introduced in the second part. The real options analysis is utilised in all of the three issues, which is quite suitable for analysing them.The first article deals with the issue of licensing contract with bio-pharma venture. In summary, when closing a licensing contract negotiation, those in charge of the negotiation must consider many factors, such as the phases of R&D, the investment costs and the market volatility. In addition to those, the interaction of the participants of the contractual negotiation should be taken into account. For modelling this relationship, the assumption of dynamic interaction between licensor and licensee is introduced.The second article focuses on the dilution problem in the second financing round under the existence of convertible note holders. According to the simulation results, “discount” and “valuation cap” have a great impact on the equity decision-making cost. The results also show that the costs increase when the degree of discount becomes greater and the valuation cap becomes smaller. This may jeopardize the success of negotiation. Entrepreneurs should take these factors into consideration in the second financing round.The third article analyses the exit choice (acquisition or IPO), especially the “IPO valuation premium puzzle” proposed by Bayar et Chemmanur (2011). While entrepreneurs and venture capitalists prefer an IPO, acquisition can be chosen. Utilising the game theory, this contradictory phenomenon can be explained as the two Nash equilibria. In addition to financial market risks, entrepreneurs should pay attention to the relationship with venture capitalists, when they choose the exit strategy.

Denna studie visar hur valet av metod och värderarens antagande påverkar värderingen av byggrätter. Inledningsvis studeras ett antal faktiska värderingar med avseende på använda metoder och antaganden. Vi finner att fastighetsvärderarna i regel använder ortsprismetoden vid värdering av byggrätter, som komplement används ibland en kalkylbaserad metod. Det visas att fastighetsvärderarens antaganden om framtida bebyggelse i hög grad påverkar värderingen. I mindre utsträckning påverkar valet av värderingsmodell. / In this thesis is presented how the choice of valuation model and the assumptions made by the real estate appraiser affects the valuation of land. By studying a number of valuations we find that the method of choice when valuing land is by a sales comparison method, to complement this method a calculation based model is sometimes used. It is shown that the assumptions made by appraiser to a large degree affect the valuation when using a calculation based model. To a lesser degree the valuation will depend on the choice of valuation model.

In 2014, venture capitalist (VC) investments were as high as $87 billion for startup companies. Furthermore, although more than 50% of venture-backed startups failed, return on investment came from only 10% of the investee companies. The high VC investment dollars and the low number of profitable VC-backed startups suggest challenges that VCs might experience in identifying profitable startups. Using a real options theory conceptual framework, the purpose of this multiple case study was to explore strategies VCs in the southeastern United States use to identify profitable startups. Data collection included observation and archival document reviews and involved semistructured interviews of 11 VC participants in 8 firms who participated in assessing startups that led to an initial public offering or buyout within the past 5 years. Data analysis involved a coding technique for extrapolating themes. Several themes emerged including due diligence and investor involvement, reduction of information asymmetry, human capital management, environment and market forces, startup experience matching investor strategy, trust building, investment timing, and VC market dynamics. Findings from this study might contribute to positive social change by assisting VCs, entrepreneurs, and capital investors in identifying startups that lead to sustainable and profitable businesses. Sustainable and profitable businesses may result in stable jobs in the local community. Beneficiaries of this research include VCs, entrepreneurs, and capital investors.