No / In the past, marketing researchers have proposed the use of simple net present value analyses to assess customer lifetime values (CLVs). However, simple net present values disregard two important aspects: (1) environmental risks affecting customer cash flows and (2) a firm's flexibility in reacting to these risks. Consequently, they are inappropriate for assessing CLVs in relationships, in which risks affect customer cash flows and suppliers are able to react. This paper suggests a typology of CLV models in accordance with the degree of environmental risk and the supplier's flexibility. The paper thus contributes to a more differentiated customer lifetime valuation and, consequently, to a more accurate basis for decision making in relationships. The use of real options analysis is recommended for relationships which are affected by environmental risks and in which suppliers are flexible. By applying real options analysis to customer lifetime valuation, the paper offers a new methodological approach, thus merging financial valuation methods with key marketing concepts.

This thesis presents several problems based on papers written jointly by the author and Dr. Christian-Oliver Ewald. Firstly, the author extends the model presented by Fershtman and Nitzan (1991), which studies a deterministic differential public good game. Two types of volatility are considered. In the first case the volatility of the diffusion term is dependent on the current level of public good, while in the second case the volatility is dependent on the current rate of public good provision by the agents. The result in the latter case is qualitatively different from the first one. These results are discussed in detail, along with numerical examples. Secondly, two existing lines of research in game theoretic studies of fisheries are combined and extended. The first line of research is the inclusion of the aspect of predation and the consideration of multi-species fisheries within classical game theoretic fishery models. The second line of research includes continuous time and uncertainty. This thesis considers a two species fishery game and compares the results of this with several cases. Thirdly, a model of a fishery is developed in which the dynamic of the unharvested fish population is given by the stochastic logistic growth equation and it is assumed that the fishery harvests the fish population following a constant effort strategy. Explicit formulas for optimal fishing effort are derived in problems considered and the effects of uncertainty, risk aversion and mean reversion speed on fishing efforts are investigated. Fourthly, a Dixit and Pindyck type irreversible investment problem in continuous time is solved, using the assumption that the project value follows a Cox-Ingersoll- Ross process. This solution differs from the two classical cases of geometric Brownian motion and geometric mean reversion and these differences are examined. The aim is to find the optimal stopping time, which can be applied to the problem of extracting resources.

This thesis consists of extensions of results on a perpetual American swaption problem. Companies routinely plan to swap uncertain benefits with uncertain costs in the future for their own benefits. Our work explores the choice of timing policies associated with the swap in the form of an optimal stopping problem. In this thesis, we have shown that Hu, Oksendal's (1998) condition given in their paper to guarantee that the optimal stopping time is a.s. finite is in fact both a necessary and sufficient condition. We have extended the solution to the problem from a region in the parameter space where optimal stopping times are a.s. finite to a region where optimal stopping times are non-a.s. finite, and have successfully calculated the probability of never stopping in this latter region. We have identified the joint distribution for stopping times and stopping locations in both the a.s. and non-a.s. finite stopping cases. We have also come up with an integral formula for the inner product of a generalized hyperbolic distribution with the Cauchy distribution. Also, we have applied our results to a back-end forestry harvesting model where stochastic costs are assumed to exponentiate upwards to infinity through time. / Graduation date: 2013

The overall aim of this research project is to study green/energy-efficient real estate from an economic perspective. The thesis summarizes the results from five different studies with a connection to green/energy-efficient real estate.The aim of the first paper (paper A) is to study how tenants perceive the indoor environment in green-rated premises, and to compare these results with tenants’ perception of a conventional building’s indoor environment. The main result is that the tenants in the green-rated building are more satisfied with the indoor environment than the tenants in the conventional building.Papers B and C assess whether energy efficiency has an impact on buildings’ income and market values using Swedish real-estate data. The key result is that although there is a small impact on building-related income, this does not seem to translate into a higher market value.The last two papers included in this thesis study hindrances to a more energy-efficient building sector. In paper D, two office buildings are used as baseline cases to provide insights into the difficulties that can arise when trying to upgrade a building to make it more energy efficient. The results indicate that changing existing leases is a prohibitive process and that it is often difficult to evaluate the final impact of an energy upgrade. The last paper focuses on why it may be rational to postpone green refurbishments even if they are profitable. The main result is that it may be rational to postpone such refurbishments. However, by introducing different financial penalties and/or subsidies, these investments could be triggered today.To sum up, the results indicate that green buildings are preferred by tenants, but that there still appear to be economic barriers to a greener building sector. / Det övergripande syftet med denna avhandling är att studera grön/energieffektiva byggnader ur ett ekonomiskt perspektiv. Avhandlingen består av en kappa och fem separata studier, vilka belyser tre olika forskningsfrågor. Syftet med den första studien är att studera hur hyresgäster upplever inomhusmiljön i gröna byggnader. I studien jämförs inomhusmiljön i en grön byggnad med inomhusmiljön i en likvärdig konventionell byggnad. Resultatet visar, på det stora hela, att hyresgästerna är mer nöjda med inomhusmiljön i den gröna byggnaden. De nästföljande studierna, B respektive C, undersöker om byggnadens energiprestanda har någon inverkan på dess hyra respektive marknadsvärde. Resultaten visar på en liten signifikant hyrespåverkan, dock verkar denna inte ha någon effekt på byggnadernas marknadsvärdebedömningar. Skälet till detta kan vara att hyrespremien anses för liten för att ha någon signifikant inverkan på byggnadens marknadsvärde, alternativt att fastighetsvärderare inte beaktar energiprestanda när en fastighet värderas. De två sista studierna studerar varför vissa, tillsynes lönsamma, energiinvesteringar inte genomförs. Resultaten från studie D visar på svårigheterna med att ingå ett samarbetsavtal (för att eliminera felaktiga incitament) mellan hyresgäst och hyresvärd. Sådana avtal tar lång tid att förhandla fram och det uppkommer ofta svårigheter med att utvärdera de tänkta energiinvesteringarnas ekonomiska utfall. Studie E utgår ifrån en realoptionsmodell, vilken används för att utvärdera när ”gröna” renoveringar bör genomföras i en befintlig byggnad. Studien visar att det kan vara rationellt att vänta trots att investeringen idag är lönsam. Vidare visar resultaten att det är möjligt att via byggsubventioner/finansiella ”straff” påverka aktörer att tidigarelägga energieffektiviseringsåtgärder.  Dock är det viktigt att dessa utformas korrekt så att det inte skapar några snedvridna incitament. Övergripande visar resultaten att gröna byggnader är att föredra ur ett brukarperspektiv men att det fortfarande finns ekonomiska hinder för en mer hållbar byggsektor. Nyckelord: gröna byggnader, energieffektiva byggnader, EPC, inomhusmiljö, Realoptioner, fastighetsekonomi. / <p>QC 20160407</p>

[pt] A utilização de financiamentos baseados em project finance ganhou grande impulso nas últimas décadas em projetos de infra-estrutura pública. Em todo o mundo, governos têm incentivado o investimento privado nesta área através de estruturas de PPP (Parceria Público-Privada), cujo conceito vem se desenvolvendo e aprimorando. O setor de transportes apresenta vasto campo para aplicação de tais instrumentos, destacando-se as concessões rodoviárias. Dadas as características de alguns projetos envolvendo project finance e PPP, faz-se necessário o uso de conceitos da Teoria de Opções Reais que permitem a correta avaliação de viabilidade econômica, além de explicitarem as vantagens da utilização destes instrumentos no que se refere a alocação de riscos. Assim como no project finance, as PPPs envolvem compromissos contratuais, de forma que neste caso o governo pode oferecer subsídios, garantias ou outras formas de suporte com objetivo de reduzir o risco do investidor privado. Nas concessões rodoviárias, por exemplo, considerando o fator de risco relacionado ao tráfego, tem-se discutido muito sobre a questão de garantias governamentais, que podem ser oferecidas segundo diferentes modelos. O objetivo desta dissertação é rever as caracterísiticas relacionadas a estruturas de project finance e PPP, bem como aplicações existentes de conceitos de opções reais nestes casos. É apresentado um projeto hipotético de concessão rodoviária neste contexto e três opções são identificadas: garantia de tráfego mínimo, repasse de receita por tráfego máximo e possibilidade de abandono pelos acionistas. / [en] The use of project finance in public infrastructure projects has been growing in the last decades. Governments around the world have been motivating private investments in infrastructure through public private partnerships (PPP) framework. In the transport sector, for example, project finance and PPP are largely used in toll road concessions. Some real options can be identified in these structures and it is necessary to use the correct methodology to analyze project economic feasibility and risk allocation. The PPP agreements may include subsidies, guarantees and other forms of support designed to reduce the risk to the private investor. Regarding the revenue risk in toll road concessions, different models of traffic guarantees have been offered by governments in many countries. This thesis intends to review these concessions, keeping in mind project finance, PPP features and real options that may exist in this context. A hypothetical toll road concession is proposed and three real options are identified and analyzed: a minimum traffic guarantee, a maximum traffic ceiling and a possible abandonment by the sponsors.

[pt] A partir da década de 90 houve um aumento da participação do setor privado em projetos de infra-estrutura no Brasil. Esta participação deu-se principalmente por meio de concessões tradicionais regidas pela Lei das Concessões. Contudo, para tornar economicamente viáveis projetos de baixa atratividade para o setor privado devido ao seu alto risco, o governo brasileiro passou a analisar formas de redução destes riscos, como as Parcerias Público- Privadas (PPPs), incluindo a flexibilização do prazo de concessão, garantias de tráfego, de risco cambial ou até mesmo garantias de financiamento. Neste trabalho é utilizado o modelo LPVR (Menor Valor Presente das Receitas) de prazo de concessão variável aliado a uma garantia de tráfego mínimo para a avaliação do caso do projeto da rodovia BR-116/324 através da metodologia das Opções Reais. Os resultados indicam que o uso deste modelo permite uma redução dos riscos tanto para o Governo, pela limitação de ganhos excessivos da concessionária, quanto para o investidor privado, pela flexibilidade do prazo e garantia de tráfego concedida. Concluímos que o modelo LPVR associado a uma garantia de tráfego mínimo de 80% aumenta em média o VPL do projeto em mais de 60%. Embora esta garantia represente um custo adicional para o Governo, ela é compensada pelo aumento da atratividade do investimento para o setor privado. / [en] Since the 90`s, there has been an increasing participation of the private sector in infrastructure projects in Brazil. This participation, however, took place mainly through traditional concessions, governed by the Concessions Law. However, to become economically viable projects that would not have attractiveness to the private sector due to its high risks, Brazilian government started to analyze some ways to reduce these risks such as the Public Private Partnerships (PPPs), including the term flexibility, traffic guarantee, guarantee of foreign currency risk or even assurance of funding. In this project it`s used the LPVR model (Least Present Value of Revenue) with variable period concession, ally to a minimum traffic guarantee and applying the case to the BR-116/324 highway project through the Real Options Methodology. The results show that the use of this model allows a reduction on the risks both for the government, avoiding excessive gains by the concessionaire, and for the private investor, either for the term flexibility or the guarantee of the traffic granted. So, we can conclude that the LPVR model associated with a minimum traffic guarantee of 80%, increases the VPL in an average of 60%, although this guarantee represents a further cost to the government which is compensated by the increasing attractiveness of the investment to the private sector.

[pt] Este estudo tem como motivação as incertezas relacionadas ao suprimento de gás natural no Brasil nos próximos anos em função de possíveis atrasos nos projetos do Pré-Sal. Para mitigar o risco da produção de gás natural ficar aquém da planejada para os próximos anos, a Petrobras vem ampliando as alternativas para a oferta de gás natural através da construção de terminais de regaseificação de Gás Natural Liquefeito (GNL). Dentro deste cenário é analisada a viabilidade de construção de um Complexo Gás-químico para a produção de fertilizante nitrogenado e outros produtos químicos, considerando que a planta tem a opção de complementar o suprimento pleno do complexo por meio da importação de GNL nos períodos em que a oferta de gás natural for insuficiente para atender o consumo total desta planta. É utilizada a distribuição triangular e processos estocásticos de reversão à média para modelaras incertezas relativas às variáveis suprimento e preço, respectivamente, e simulação de Monte Carlo para o apreçamento da opção de troca de insumos. Os resultados obtidos indicam que a opção por GNL como complementação do suprimento pleno do Complexo aumenta o valor do projeto, comprovando que este é uma alternativa economicamente viável e atrativa. / [en] This study was motivated by the uncertainties related to the natural gas supply in Brazil in the coming years due to possible delays in the Pre-Salt projects. To mitigate the risk of natural gas production falling short of planned for the coming years, Petrobras has been expanding the alternatives for the natural gas supply by building regasification of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminals. Within this scenario is analyzed the feasibility of building a gas chemical complex to produce nitrogenous fertilizer and other chemicals, considering that the plant has the option to complement the plentiful supply of the complex by importing LNG in periods that the natural gas supply is insufficient to meet the total consumption of this plant. The triangular distribution and stochastic mean reversion is used to model uncertainties regarding supply and price variables, respectively, and Monte Carlo simulation for pricing the option to switch inputs. The results indicate that the choice of LNG as a supply of full complementation of he complex increases the value of the project, proving that this is a viable and economically attractive alternative.

[pt] A PPP (Parcerias Públicos-Privados) tem por objetivo viabilizar projetos de infraestrutura através da concessão de algum tipo de apoio governamental com garantias ou aportes de recursos, visando mitigar o risco do projeto tornando-o mais atrativo para o setor privado. Este estudo utiliza a metodologia de opções reais para modelar o impacto dos incentivos do governo no contrato de concessão sobre o valor do projeto. A análise de projeto sob esta ótica considera as flexibilidades especificas do projeto em estudo, tornando o projeto viável que antes poderia não ser atrativo ao investidor privado, em função das grandes incertezas existentes sobre a demanda prevista. Será realizado um estudo de caso baseado na Manifestação de Interesse da Iniciativa Privada – MIP 03/2012, que tem por objetivo o início da licitação de concessão ou PPP para a implantação, manutenção, e operação do serviço de transporte metroviário da LINHA 3 do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, entre os Municípios de Niterói e São Gonçalo. / [en] The PPP (Public-Private Partnership) aims to facilitate infrastructure projects by granting some form of government support with guarantees or capital injections, to mitigate project risk by making it more attractive to the private sector. In this study, we will use the methodology of Real Options to model the impact of government incentives in the contract of concession on the value of the project. The analysis of the project by this point of view considers the specific flexibilities of the project being studied, making the project feasible which previously might not be attractive to the private investor, according to the major uncertainties about the expected demand. It will be done a study case based in the Expression of Interest from Private Initiative - MIP 03/2012 that has as objective the start of the bidding for concession or PPP for deployment, maintenance and operation of the Subway Systems service from Line 3 of Rio de Janeiro State, between the cities of Niterói and São Gonçalo.

[pt] As grandes redes varejistas brasileiras vêm passando por um momento de forte expansão geográfica, que tem por objetivo aumentar o valor das empresas através de ganhos de escala e aumento do poder de negociação frente aos fornecedores. A entrada em um novo mercado geográfico, no entanto, apresenta inúmeras incertezas que podem afetar a rentabilidade destas novas lojas. O método tradicional de avaliação pelo fluxo de caixa descontado usualmente utilizado para a abertura de novas lojas, não considera que a abertura de uma primeira loja traz novas informações de mercado que permitem ao investidor otimizar a sua estratégia de penetração neste mercado. Essa dissertação propõe a utilização da Teoria de Opções Reais para avaliar o projeto de expansão de uma rede de varejo para uma nova cidade, através da valoração das flexibilidades gerenciais de expansão e abandono disponíveis para a empresa. O modelo proposto, ao incorporar o valor da operação de uma segunda loja no caso de exercício da opção de expansão, aumenta o valor total do projeto quando comparado ao valor presente líquido calculado pelo método do Fluxo de Caixa Descontado, onde a decisão definitiva seria abrir apenas uma loja. A Teoria de Opções Reais mostrou-se superior na avaliação do projeto, pois o valor do projeto calculado pelo método do Fluxo de Caixa Descontado está subestimado ao não considerar as flexibilidades existentes no projeto. / [en] The large Brazilian retail companies are undergoing strong geographical expansion in order to enhance shareholders value by gains of scale and greater negotiation power with suppliers. The entrance into a new geographical market, however, presents many uncertainties that can affect the return of these new stores. The traditional approach of discounted cash flow method, does not take into account that the opening of the first new store reveals new market information that allows the investor to optimize his penetration strategy in this market. This dissertation proposes the use of the Real Options Theory to value the project to expand a retail company to a new market, by valuing the managerial flexibility of expansion and abandonment available to the company. By incorporating the value of the operation of a second store in case of the exercise of the expansion option , the proposed model increases the total value of the project when compared to the net present value calculated by the discounted cash flow analysis. The Real Options Theory was superior in the project valuation as the value of the project calculated by the discounted cash flow analysis is underestimated by not considering the existing flexibility in the project.

[pt] As decisões estratégicas das empresas são afetadas pelas oportunidades de investimento e as ações das suas concorrentes. Imai e Watanabe propõem um modelo de opções reais para determinar a decisão de investimento ótima de uma empresa, considerando um jogo de múltiplos estágios com duas firmas sob um processo trinomial multiperíodo em um modelo discreto. Utilizamos o modelo de Imai e Watanabe para determinar o momento estratégico ótimo para investimento em uma nova tecnologia em função da variação do custo de investimento e da demanda inicial, considerando duas empresas concorrentes no mercado brasileiro de telecomunicações, onde uma empresa é líder (L) e a outra é seguidora (S). Considerando que ambas empresas já atuam no mercado e pretendem investir em uma nova tecnologia que permitirá a expansão dos seus negócios, determinamos a curva de gatilho do custo do investimento e da demanda inicial dos serviços que delimitam a estratégia de investimento ótima da empresa líder. / [en] Corporate strategic decisions are affected by investment opportunities and actions of rival firms. Imai and Watanabe suggest a real option and game theory model to determine optimal investment decision considering a two firms multistage game following a multiperiod trinomial process in a discret model. Imai & Watanabe model is used to define this optimal time to invest in a new tecnology as a function of the cost of investment and initial demand. We consider two competing firms in the Brazilian telecommunication market where one firm is leader (L) and the other is the follower (S). We assume both firms are already active in this market and intend to invest in a new technology that will allow them to expand their business. We define a trigger curve of cost of investment and initial demand of the services that define optimal investment strategy for the leading firm.