台灣民主轉型的成功除執政菁英的主動變革外，公民參與政治和支持改革亦有其重要性。有鑑於逐年下滑的投票率和工具性社團參與率，本研究主要從制度變遷與社會資本論點來進行探討，以縣市層次制度變項為自變項，三類型社會資本為中介變項，投票與競選活動參與為依變項，目的在了解於民主鞏固時期前後，社會資本的分佈狀況和影響社會資本、政治參與的因素，以提升民眾的社會和政治參與。中介變項與依變項資料來自1993年與2005年台灣社會變遷調查資料(TSCS)，自變項資料整合自臺灣地區社會意向調查、各縣市社福資訊與政大選研中心資料庫，主要採用多層次迴歸與邏輯迴歸分析模型來分析資料。 在社會資本分布變化上，結合式社會資本與工具性社參未有顯著改變，情感性社參則顯著增加。相較於情感性社團參與，工具性社團參與的比例較高，在兩個年代中，民眾參與工具性社團比例約在22%左右。在社團內異質性資源分佈上，不同社團的年齡異質性與性別異質性隨不同時期而有所變化。相對地，各類社團在成員的教育、收入與族群組成上反而較為穩定。由於在2005年，民眾教育與收入顯著較1993年為高，意謂著在民主鞏固時期，團體參與者可接觸的社團內異質性資源較多。 並非所有社會資本皆受外在制度所影響，研究結果顯示出國家制度較難影響立基於儒家文化的結合式社會資本。在民主鞏固時期前，縣市執政評價氛圍與生活扶助資源如理論所預期，可影響民眾的情感性社會參與，但其影響力似乎亦有減弱情形。一致性社福資源雖對工具性社團參與有跨期影響力，但卻產生資源排擠效果，而非是資源溢注效果。 政治態度論與社會資本論皆能部份說明為何民眾要參與兩類傳統政治活動，但相較於投票，參與競選活動屬於較耗費成本的參與行為，因此個體資源論較能解釋競選活動的參與。以多層次中介分析步驟檢視縣市制度變項對政治參與的作用後，證實了制度論的作用。在制度變項可能透過社會資本影響政治參與的三條中介路徑，僅一條路徑得到實證上支持。在2005年，縣市急難救助資源可透過工具性社團參與進而影響競選活動參與。 制度變遷的觀點能說明不同時期情感性社團參與和投票的變化。傳統文化價值觀的現代化改變了縣市執政評價氛圍對情感性社團參與的作用。隨著非正式制度環境的改變，情感性社團參與對競選活動參與的作用亦可能隨之改變。而隨著社會福利政策綱領的施行，人均生活扶助資源量的提升，則促進個人的投票行為。總言之，中央政府應注意自身的施政效能，並透過社福資源的適度分配，來促進民眾的社會參與與政治參與行為。 / The success of the transition to democracy in Taiwan should attribute not only to the active reform of the ruling party' cadre, but also to citizens’ participation and political support for the political reformer. In view of the gradual declining turnout rate and instrumental group participation rate, the study tends to describe the distribution of social capital, and explore the potential factors influencing social capital and political participation before and after democratic consolidation period. The paper’s framework from the perspective of institutional change and social capital treats institutional change as the independent variable, three kinds of social capital as the mediated variable, and voting and electoral campaign participation as dependent variables. The study mainly applies the multilevel linear regression and logistic regression model to analyze the mediated and dependent variables from the Taiwan Social Change Survey in 1993 and 2005, separately. As for independent variables, the data is integrated from the Social Image Survey, the social welfare report across counties, and online database of election study center in national Chengchi University. As far as the distribution of social capital is concerned, the results show that the distribution of bonding social capital and instrumental group participation do not have significant change between 1993 and 2005. Compared with participation in 1993, in 2005, the increase of this emotional group participation is apparent. In both year, the instrumental group participation rate is about 22% and is higher than the emotional group participation. In the distribution of diverse resources within groups, age diversity and sex diversity change a lot as the time went by. In contrast, education diversity, income diversity and ethnicity diversity stay stable between groups. In comparison with 1993, people in 2005 have higher education and income level, resulting in the increase of group members’ education and income level. It means that in the democratic consolidation period, it is probable for group participators to approach more diverse resources existing within groups . The effect of institutional variables on the three kinds of social capital is not as same as previous literatures report. Bonding social capital based on confucianism is difficult to be enhanced by the national institutions. Before the democratic consolidation, the effect of living assistance resources, and the atmosphere where people are satisfied with the central government performance which is consistent with theoretical prediction affects people’s participation in the emotional group. However, the effect seems to weaken gradually at the later period. Universal social welfare resources influence the instrumental group participation across different periods, but the negative effect belongs to the crowing out effect rather than the crawling back effect. Political attitudes theory and social capital theory both can partly account for why people participate in these two kinds of traditional political activities. Individual resources theory is suitable for explaining the participation of electoral campaign in that it takes people much more time and cost to engage in the electoral campaign participation than in voting. After examing the effect of institutional variables at the county-level on the political participation through the procedure of multilevel mediation analysis, the findings proven the argument of institution theory. Among the three potential mediation paths in which the institutional variables impact on the political participation through social capital, just one path is supported by the data. In 2005, emergent assistant resources can affect the electoral campaign through the instrumental group participation. The perspective of institutional change can explain the change of the emotional group participation and voting between 1993 and 2005. With the modernization of individual’s traditional attitudes, the county-level effect of evaluation of the central government on the participation in the emotional group is abated. It is probable that the effect of the emotional group participation on the electoral campaign participation differs according to the different environment of the informal institution The increase of living assistant resources per capita, because of the execution of the guiding principle of the social welfare policy, promote people’s voting significantly. In sum up, the attention should be paid by the central authority to strengthen the efficiency of the administration and distribute the social welfare resources appropriately based on the contemporary social condition, in order to improve people’s social participation and political participation.

911事件後，阿富汗戰爭與第2次海灣戰爭改變國際石油能源板塊，激化大國間的能源爭奪。遠東石油管競標案之爭議，顯示中日積極尋求海灣國家以外之替代來源，中日爭奪遠東石油管線的過程，可視為21世紀亞洲的石油戰爭。該政策之發展勢將影響東北亞各國能源政策之走向，與區域國際關係。 本文乃層次分析法之個案研究，分別從國際層次、國家層次、決策層次等面向切入，探討遠東石油管線案峰迴路轉之深層因素。就國際層次而言，遠東石油管爭議案是日本與中國爭奪石油管線的角力過程；就國家層次而言，遠東石油管爭議案是俄羅斯官方打壓金融寡頭的過程；就決策層次而言，遠東石油管爭議案是俄羅斯行政內，不同派系政爭的過程，以及克里姆林宮內經濟顧問派與安全顧問派爭奪國家發展方向的過程。 / This article is a case study of levels of analysis. It is a researching about Russian pipeline dispute in North East Asia from the view of nation state and decision-making levels. The case offers a step in direction to realize power struggle between 2 families in Russia After 2000. For the long-time, Russian politics has hassled for the national develop line: Security or Economy. Under the policy argument, different groups struggle to control the politic right to speak, and future direction of country. As a top leader of security system, President Putin（Putin Vladimir Vlaimirovich, Владимир Владимирович Путин）has no chose but incriminated into the ero-sum struggle. The result can affect Russian domestic affairs, foreign and security policy, even the development of national line after 2008 and the order of CIS and Eastern-North Asia. We hypothesize that: (1) Power struggle during Yeltsin Period: Power transition in Russia after 2000 is not the change of Russian president, but also the substitution among different interest groups. The war has started even before Putin came to power. And, it is still on going now. (2) State Duma: In state duma, in the election in the end of 2003, United Russia party draws much of its strength from administrative resources. Duma become legislative bureau of Putin. (3) In executive administration, Putin controls Kremlin after fall of Aleksandr S. Voloshin in 2003, and, controls administrative system after fall of Kasyanov in 2004. Finally, controls military system after fall of Anatoli kvashnin in 2004. And, the pipeline is the victim of political struggle.