隨著全球化的發展，廿一世紀的國際安全情勢更為錯綜複雜，其中「恐怖攻擊」具備成本低、效果高、機動性強的條件，讓恐怖攻擊行動沒有時間、空間的限制，亦無道德、規範的侷限，此種全然改變戰爭本質的非傳統型態戰爭行為，儼然已成為危害國際社會發展與人類生存的一種新形態危機。 今日國際社會所要面對的「恐怖攻擊」危機，是由人為所誘發的危機。受到不同社會系統內政治、文化、經濟、種族、宗教等因素相對之間的動態性互動影響，使得危機的源頭更趨向於多元與複雜，因此，若能及早偵知危機預將發生或能判明引爆危機的原由，對於危機管理甚有助益。 針對「動態性複雜」問題，Peter M. Senge發展一套源自於系統動力學的「系統思考」途徑，透過「資訊回饋」的特性，由整體思考方式與觀察環狀因果的互動關係，能看出一再重複發生的結構型態，釐清複雜事件背後運作的簡單結構，並經由模式設計改善組織及工作指導準則。 研究發現，在危機管理的系統思考途徑中，事件層次的反應式作為僅能有限度地預防危機與處理危機；行為變化型態層次的順應變動中的趨勢，能從變動趨勢中警覺危機、發現危機與危機處理，若要全方位預防危機、有效危機處理以避免後遺，就必須從系統結構層次的觀點著手，改造行為的變化型態。 依據九一一事件的分析，人為所誘發危機的關鍵在於「人」，以及「人與人的互動關係」，爭奪的重點就在「利益」，也就是「得」與「失」之間；恐怖主義濫殺無辜，不可原諒也不可寬容，但另一方面，反恐政策也不應如美國政府在九一一事件後「擴張軍武、推銷軍售、共同發展武器」等作為就可以達成。 美、英等強權國家在探討反恐策略為何失敗、譴責恐怖攻擊手段兇殘之際，是否也應該反省文明衝突與族群對立的源頭，以及阿富汗、伊拉克人民的死傷慘狀，以及在其他地方所發生的殺戮與飢餓問題，才能避免強權國家一意孤行的後果，由全球的無辜者共同承擔。同時，基於地球的資源有限，如何和平共處、分享資源，才是遠離「人為誘發危機」的最佳方法。 / Following the development of globalization, the international security situation of 21st century becomes more complicated. The "terror attack" has the conditions of low cost, high effect, and high mobility, which make the terrorist no limitation of time and space and no restriction of moral and norm. The kind of non-traditional type warfare behavior completely changes the nature of war. That solemnly becomes the new type crisis to endanger the development of international community and the existence of human being. Today’s international community should face the "terror attack" crisis which is brought out by mankind. The factors of politics, culture, economy, race, and religion of different kind of community systems have relatively dynamic interaction effect which makes the crisis origin trend to more diverse and complicated. For this reason, if we can early detect the cause of the crisis, when and where, it will be very helpful for crisis management. Being aimed at "dynamic complexity", Peter M. Senge developed the "systems thinking" approach from systematic dynamics which goes through the characteristic of "information feedback" from the interaction of integrated thought manner and observed circle effect, and find out the repeated configuration to clear the back performance of simple structure of complicated event, and improve the guidelines of organization and work by mode design. Findings discover that during the approach of systems thinking of crisis management, event-arrangement behavior can only limitedly prevent from crisis and handle crisis. The variation-orientated trend of behavior variation arrangement can watch crisis, discover crisis, and handle crisis from variation trend. If someone wants to dimensionally prevent crisis, effectively handle crisis and avoid sequela, he should do it from the viewpoint of systematic constructive arrangement and to change the behavior variation type. According the 911 analysis, the key point of man-made crisis is "man", and the key point of argument from "interaction of the men" is "benefit", which is between "to gain" and "to lose". The terrorism causes the death of innocence, which can not be forgiven. But in the other side, counter-terrorist policy should not be achieved by "arms drive, promoting military sale, and mutually developing weapons", provided from US government after 9/11. When the powerful states, such as US, UK, probe into failure of counter-terrorist policy and condemn the cruel measure of terrorist attack, they should make themselves-examination of the fountainhead of civilization conflict and clan confrontation, and the casualty of Afghanistan and Irapi, and the slaughter and starvation of other places. Considering those things, we can avoid the result of powerful state doing, which put on the innocence of the world. At the same time, based on the limited resources of the earth, the best way to keep off "man-made crisis" is to live peace and to share resources.

全球運籌的大趨勢使得紡織業必須轉換為全球佈局的產區導向。在台灣內部環境變遷和全球整體大環境劇烈改變下，紡織業早已將生產據點外移，轉移到生產成本更低的地方，增加企業的競爭力。紡織業也是台灣最早進行全球生產佈局的產業之一。因此，將紡織業設置在全球生產、行銷、研發的據點，與台灣營運總部互相連結，紡織業全球運籌之效率及整體的競爭力才能得以更加提昇。 以績效指標作為企業管理的核心，方能有效追蹤經營管理專案執行的狀況。運用績效指標訂立出企業維持營運的重要資訊數字，亦可事先預測企業表現並即時監督改善。透過績效指標的推動與實施，能夠幫助企業達到績效極大化的目標。因此，當企業規劃全球運籌的營運活動時，「指標」可謂評估上絕對不可或缺的一項重要管理工具。 過去對於台灣紡織業之全球運籌績效指標的研究相當少見，本研究所提出之紡織業全球運籌績效指標參考架構，藉由文獻探討，將供應鏈、紡織業、全球運籌此三個領域特性考量在此架構中，並與經濟部技術處示範性資訊應用開發計畫之八家個案廠商所提出的績效指標結合，所得到之結果再利用德爾菲法與學者專家訪談後分析結果，瞭解學者專家對初步之架構之建議，以強化此初步參考架構的適切與完整性。後以嚴謹的方式建立紡織業供應鏈之系統動力學模型，利用電腦模擬工具Powersim建構聚紡織業供應鏈之系統動態模式，並以情境分析模擬，評估在不同產業情境下，不同關鍵績效指標對於產業供應鏈績效之敏感度，以提供業者作為發展供應鏈績效指標架構之參考。 關鍵字： 紡織業、績效指標、系統動力學、灰色理論、全球運籌 / The trend of global logistic makes companies to change the pattern of supply chain. In Taiwan and the global environment, the companies have to locate elsewhere, to lower production costs, to increase the competitiveness of enterprises. The companies have to link the global production, marketing, research and development base with the headquarter of Taiwan to cooperate. Thus the efficiency of global logistic and the overall competitive can be more upgraded. We proposed a Global logistic performance indicators framework, through literature review in three areas in this framework: supply chain, the textile industry and global logistic. And then we compare the framework with performance indicators of eight cases of the textile industry. And the results have been used Delphi interviews with scholars and experts. After analysis of the Delphi’s results, we use a rigorous approach to build a system dynamics model of Taiwan's textile industry’s supply chain. We use simulation to test the sensitivities of each indicator in the framework to selected key indicators which can meet Taiwan textile industry’s need and rapidly respond to the real situation. Keywords: Global logistic、Performance indicator、System dynamic、Gray statistics、textile industry

關於供應商評選模式的探討與研究，是現今於供應鏈管理中非常重要的議題，而對於國內外供應商評選的相關性研究中，往往只考量供應商本身績效，而缺乏整體性的考量，有鑑於此，當企業在評選供應商時，不僅是針對單一供應商績效的考量，而對於供應商本身上下游廠商的整體績效的考量，也是相當重要的評選因素。本研究運用資料包絡分析法(Data Envelopment Analysis, DEA)與簡易多屬性評等技術(Simple Multi-Attribute Rating, SMART)，以建構較完整的供應商評選模式，協助企業的決策者選擇最適的供應商。 在進行供應商與供應商所屬的供應鏈之績效評估時，利用資料包絡分析法中的交叉模式計算供應商與供應商所屬的供應鏈之平均效率，再藉由平均效率值以排序供應商與供應商所屬的供應鏈之優先順位，但因兩者之順序會產生不一致的情形，利用SMART法中的排序加總法計算兩者之權重值，最後以加總法計算綜合效率值，依據綜合效率值加以排序以評選最適的供應商，而此兩種方法的結合， 則需透過驗證的方式以確定運用之正確性，利用系統動力學(System Dynamics, SD)以建構供應鏈之整體廠商的經營環境，模擬供應鏈整體廠商之績效評估模式，以產生模擬驗證排序，最後再將綜合排序與驗證排序，利用Spearman等級相關係數驗證其相關性，而最終證明兩排序具有高度相關性，也證實本研究所提出的供應商評選模式富有參考價值。 / The research of supplier selection model is a very important issue in supply chain management (SCM). Even though the research on supplier selection is abundant, the most works usually only consider the performance of the supplier. This situation can result in a lack of integral deliberation. Therefore, the decision-maker wants to select his vendor in the company, it is important that the decision-maker not only focus on the business unit but also add to the overall organization of the supply chain. In this paper the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and the Simple Multi-Attribute Rating (SMART) are developed to construct the effective supplier evaluation model depends upon the constituent parts of the supply chain, which may be helpful for selecting the appropriate vendor. When evaluating the performance of the supplier and the supplier’s supply chain, the cross-efficiency model of DEA is applied to compute average efficiency both the supplier and the supply chain. According to average efficiency, we can arrange the priority order that may be have the inconsistent order for the suppliers and their supply chains. The rank sum weighting of SMART is employed to determine the weights of suppliers and their chains and then the weighted method is used to calculate overall efficiency that ranking of the suppliers is obtained. Above of two methods, we must be verify the model. The System Dynamics (SD) is designed to implement the whole components of the supply chain for business environment and simulate the performance model. Based on this performance model, we can acquire a confirmation list. In the end, the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient is provided to testify the correlation between the overall order and the confirmation list. The result of the statistic analysis is illustrated the strength of the association. The model can be tailored and applied by firms that are making decisions on supplier selection.