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臺灣香菸消費的決定因素 : 分量迴歸法 / The determinants of cigarettes consumption in Taiwan : a quantile regression approach趙培源, Chao, Pei Yuan Unknown Date (has links)
本文的研究目的為分析台灣菸品消費的特性。本文選擇採取分量迴歸法作為研究方法,探討在0.05、0.2、0.4、0.6、0.8和0.95的菸品消費分量下,吸菸家戶的菸品消費特性效果為何。資料來源為行政院家庭收支調查報告。
研究結果指出,在0.2到0.8分量的菸品消費量下,菸品的價格彈性為-0.161到-0.231之間。然而,在0.05分量的菸品消費量下,菸品的價格彈性為-0.363,而當位於0.95分量的菸品消費量時,菸品的消費彈性大幅的提升至-0.701。這代表著提高菸品稅或是菸品健康福利捐的政策是可以有效減少吸菸行為的。
更近一步探討,在0.95分量的菸品消費下,菸品的消費彈性大幅的提升至-0.701,對於此現象可能的解釋為,對於較高菸品消費量的家戶大部分為吸菸成癮者,當價格上漲時,消費者會選擇改變吸菸習慣例如戒菸或購買較便宜的香菸。
而值得一提的是,對於吸菸成癮的消費者而言,也存在一定機率會選擇購買非法的走私香菸,而走私香菸不但無法增加我國菸品稅收收入,也無法達成抑制我國吸菸率的政策目標。因此,政府在推動菸品控管政策時,須將菸品消費者的消費特性列入考量,同時也必須加強查緝非法菸品走私的行為,才能更有效達成政策目標。 / The research purpose of the paper was to analyze the characteristics of cigarette consumptions in Taiwan. The paper had adopted quantile regression as research method to discuss the effect of smoking households’ consumption characteristics to the cigarette consumptions in Taiwan at 0.05, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, and 0.95 quantile. Data for the research was sourced from the “Report on the Survey of Family Income & Expenditure”, conducted by the Executive Yuan, R.O.C.
The results showed up that the price elasticities of cigarettes were estimated about -0.161 to -0.231 from 0.2 to 0.8 quantile of cigarettes consumption. However, the price elasticity of cigarettes was -0.363 in 0.05 quantile and raised significantly to -0.701 in 0.95 quantile. Indicating the policy of implementing cigarette tax or “Health and Welfare Surcharge on Tobacco Products” would decrease the smoking behavior effectively.
Furthermore, the price elasticity changed to -0.701 in 0.95 quantile, a possible explanation for this phenomenon was that households with higher cigarette consumption were highly addicted to smoking, when the cigarette price increased, they would try to change smoking habit such as buying cheaper cigarettes or quit smoking.
However, it is worth noticed that there existed risks of price sensitive smokers seek out measures to purchase less expensive cigarettes when they were highly relied on cigarettes, such as smuggled cigarettes, which may decrease future cessation efforts, and also lose the tax revenue from cigarette excise tax. Therefore, government should also take the consumption characteristics of smoking households into account and also enhance the prevention of illegal consumption behaviors when implementing the tobacco control policy.
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彩券與娛樂性消費支出關係之研究 / A Study on the Relationship between Lottery and Recreation Expenditure陳慧琪, Chen, Hui-Chi Unknown Date (has links)
世界各國政府為了廣開籌措財源的管道,對於各類博彩事業已從過去的嚴格禁止到「寓禁於徵」,一方面可使賭博透明化便於監督,防止犯罪行為糾纏;另一方面又可讓財政困窘的政府藉以獲得相當稅收;博彩事業的合法化及加入娛樂趣味性就成為現今休閒產業發展的潮流之一。故本研究針對國內近期發行的公益彩券進行上述之相關探討,研究內容包含:
1.透過文獻探討菸、酒及彩券三種財貨「寓禁於徵」之效果,
2.透過問券分析,公益彩券發行後、公益彩券價格改變及發行電腦彩券對六合彩購買者影響之關聯性分析及比例性分析,
3.透過問券分析,公益彩券發行後、公益彩券價格改變及民眾所得水準提昇對民眾日常娛樂性消費支出的影響,並分析公益彩券與一般娛樂性消費支出為替代或互補關係。
透過文獻探討及問券分析後,本研究主要發現及結論如下:
1.菸、酒、彩券之長期價格彈性大於短期價格彈性;彩券較菸、酒富於彈性,彩券價格彈性通常大於1而菸酒價格彈性通常小於1,故對彩券「寓禁於徵」之效果會較菸、酒為佳,
2.透過問卷模擬公益彩券價格調降後發現,除了唱歌之外,一般娛樂性消費支出與公益彩券為互補關係,可能是由於彩券價格調降後,民眾實質所得增加的效益,使民眾同時增加彩券及其他娛樂性消費支出,故呈現互補現象。然而公益彩券價格調降後,娛樂性消費支出金額不變的民眾也不算少,約佔樣本的59.32%,可見不受公益彩券影響的民眾也不算少,
3.由問卷模擬所得增加後發現,一般娛樂性消費支出(不含六合彩及彩券)為正常財;彩券與六合彩隨著所得增加而減少消費,故彩券與六合彩在本研究發現為劣等財。
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吸煙行爲: 排列路徑方法 / Smoking Behaviors: A Permutation Approach司亭牧, Tim Stahl Unknown Date (has links)
本研究從2009-2010全國成人煙草使用率的調查數據,研討不同類型的戒菸方式對於個體行為異質性所造成的影響。先前的研究顯示有意願想要戒菸的吸菸者有外部戒菸控制方式的需求,然而我們無法在有限的研究中找出相同的吸煙者不滿意對於外部戒菸的控制需求。此外我們發現,高成癮率和高程度的吸菸量提高吸煙者對尼古丁替代物或其他藥物的需求。我們在這份研究中甚至發現,無知的雙曲線貼現吸煙者降低外部需求的戒菸者對於禁煙令或香煙稅當中的關係。 / Using data from the 2009-2010 National Adult Tobacco Survey, this study investigates how the heterogeneity of individual behaviors affects demand for different types of cessation supports. Previous studies have demonstrated that smokers with a desire to quit have a demand for external cessation controls, however, there is limited research into how those same smokers demand individual disutility decreasing supports like nicotine replacement or counseling. We find that high addiction and consumption levels increase the demand for nicotine replacement or other medication. We also find support linking naïf hyperbolic discounters to lower demand for external cessation supports like smoking bans or cigarette taxes.
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