京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(情報学) / 甲第19127号 / 情博第573号 / 新制||情||100(附属図書館) / 32078 / 京都大学大学院情報学研究科システム科学専攻 / (主査)教授 中島 浩, 教授 中村 佳正, 教授 石井 信 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Informatics / Kyoto University / DFAM

本研究では懸濁系の磁気粘弾性流体の流動特性と圧力特性について四要素モデルを用いて考察を行う．実験では，磁気粘弾性流体がオリフィスを流れる際の圧力損失について，スタートアップの圧力変化と磁場印加時の圧力の過渡的な挙動を測定した．また実験結果の検証として数値解析も行った．その結果，磁気粘弾性流体の流れは，ケルビン力，磁気スピンの作用，物性を決定づける4要素モデルによって数値的に表現されることを明らかにした． / The flow and pressure characteristics of magneto-viscoelastic fluids in suspension systems are discussed in this study using a four-element model. In the experiment, the pressure drop of the magneto-viscoelastic fluid flowing through the orifice was measured in terms of pressure change at startup and transient pressure behavior when a magnetic field is applied. Numerical analysis was also performed to verify the experimental results. The results show that the flow of a magneto-viscoelastic fluid can be numerically described by a four-element model that determines the Kelvin force, the action of magnetic spin, and physical properties. / 博士(工学) / Doctor of Philosophy in Engineering / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University

遊戲式學習已被證實能夠有效提升學習者的學習成效，而遊戲的愉悅度是否設計得越強烈，對學習成效越有幫助，是個值得探索的問題。此外，遊戲過程中，有哪些遊戲設計要素能夠影響學習成效，同時讓學習者在遊戲中亦能夠感到趣味性，進而達到學習目標，值得我們關切。再者，學習的專注力及情緒在學習型遊戲設計中，也是必須納入考量的面向。因此，本研究分別探討兩款在遊戲設計要素上具有顯著差異的英文單字學習APP，對於學習者學習成效、專注力、放鬆度及單字記憶保留上的影響。 本研究以馬祖高中高三的36位學生為研究對象，根據英語字彙前測成績及性別將其隨機分派至兩款在遊戲設計要素上具有顯著差異的英文單字學習APP，進行四週的英語字彙學習。結果顯示遊戲設計要素較低的組別的學習者，在英文單字學習成效、單字記憶保留上的成效均顯著優於遊戲設計要素較高組別學習者，同時放鬆度亦較高，而專注度不如遊戲設計要素較高的組別，且各依變項間彼此有顯著的正相關。此外，本研究亦進一步證實性別差異存在於不同遊戲設計要素的英語字彙學習APP中，在遊戲設計要素較低的英文單字學習APP中，發現女性學習者擁有顯著較優的英語字彙學習成效及記憶保留度。而本研究也發現「符合程度的挑戰性」為設計遊戲式英文單字學習APP時最需要重視的遊戲設計要素。 綜上所述，本研究證實相較於遊戲設計要素較高的高刺激性英文單字學習APP，遊戲設計要素較低的低刺激性英文單字遊戲APP對於學習成效、單字記憶保留上具有較正面的效應。此一結果顯示像英語字彙學習這樣的認知型學習，在遊戲設計上並不適合納入刺激性較高的遊戲設計要素。此外，對遊戲設計者來說，未來設計英文單字遊戲學習APP時，亦應將性別差異納入設計考量，同時儘可能在遊戲娛樂性及教育性中取得平衡。 / Game-based learning has been proved to effectively boost learners’ learning performance, while whether more enjoyment designed in the game brings better learning performance remains unknown. Besides, what game design factors will affect learning performance and simultaneously keep learners interested in the game is also worth investigating. Moreover, attention and emotion are two dimensions which should be taken into account when designing learning games. As a result, this study tries to assess the effects of using two different English vocabulary learning APPs with significantly different game design factors on learners’ performance, sustained attention, meditation, and vocabulary memory retention, respectively. A pilot study was conducted beforehand to examine whether the two considered English vocabulary game APPs differ significantly in game design factors including concentration, feedback, challenges match player skills, control, and immersion. In the formal study, thirty-six Grade 12 students from Matsu senior high school participated in this study. They were randomly divided into two experimental groups based on gender and pretest scores, separately using two English vocabulary game APPs with significantly different game design factors for English vocabulary learning. The study lasted for four weeks. Analytical results show that students using game with lower scores in game design factors generated significantly better vocabulary learning performance, memory retention and meditation level than those using game with higher scores in game design factors, while sustained attention level was lower. Also, they were significantly correlated to one another. Moreover, this study further confirms that gender differences existed among English vocabulary learning games with different game design factors. Girls were found to have significantly better English vocabulary learning performance and memory retention in the game APP with lower scores in game design factors. Furthermore, “challenge matches players’ skill” was found to be the most important game design factor when designing game-based English vocabulary learning APPs. In conclusion, this study confirms that English vocabulary game APPs with lower exciting elements have more positive learning effects on learning performance, memory retention than those with higher scores in game design factors. The result indicates that when designing games, higher exciting game design factors are not suitable for cognitive learning, such as English vocabulary learning. Finally, this study provides suggestions for future game-design developers to take gender differences into consideration when designing English vocabulary learning game APPs, and meanwhile tries to strike the balance between educational purpose and entertainment of the game APPs.

新經濟體系的來臨，以技術為基礎的新創科技公司如雨後春筍般的出現，這些新創科技公司的價值已非過去龐大的有形資產，取而代之的是無形資產，如專利權、商標權、著作權、授權契約或公司的研發團隊等，然而傳統的財務報表係儘反映公司過去的財務狀況和經營成果，對於自行研發而非外購的智慧財產權，卻無法認列在財務報表上，使得公司的價值被嚴重低估，有潛力的公司無法獲得所需資金而功敗垂成，十分可惜。 本研究係以實際經營管理的觀點切入，探討以智慧財產權做為融資擔保標的時所會遭遇到的困難為何？再經由所得知的實際困難找出智慧財產權融資所需營運機制和可行之營運模式。 由於智慧財產權融資大部份的風險都處於資金供給方，因此融資可行與否大致上都決定於資金供給者必須在那些條件具備的情況下才願意接受以智慧財產權做擔保的融資模式，因此本研究主要探討的問題從資金供給者的角度出發，主要研究的資金供給對象為國內銀行和創業投資公司。 透過次級文獻蒐集、集體焦點訪談、個別訪談和郵寄問卷等方法得到主要發現如下： 一、國外智慧財產權融資尚在起步階段，且西方國家與東方國家有關智慧財產權的營運模式皆不盡相同。 二、國內缺乏智慧財產權融資實際個案，雖然有關智慧財產權融資擔保有其基本法源可茲適用，但相關配套法規欠缺。 三、國內創業投資公司多以整體性評估新創科技公司，除少數新創科技公司（如生物科技公司）外，智慧財產並非單一關鍵性考量因素。 四、智慧財產權融資模式對創業投資公司有其間接性影響，其中有關鑑價機制和技術交易市場為創業投資公司所關切重點。 五、國內傳統銀行以利差為主要獲利來源之營運特性使智慧財產權融資高風險之融資形式不易為銀行所接受。 六、銀行本身缺乏智慧財產權鑑價能力和管理能力，此為銀行承做智慧財產權融資首要解決之務。 七、銀行傾向以政府保證的方式來進行智慧財產權融資，以降低本身所承擔風險。 八、以目前整體的環境而言，智慧財產權融資在智慧財產權觀念上、鑑價機制、管理能力、交易市場和法令規範等方面有著許多實行上的困難有待解決。 由以上可知智慧財產權融資以目前各方面的環境而言具有高風險性，其可行性的營運模式建議分為短期和長期來看： 一、初期營運模式： 1、初期政府可用保證基金的形式來分散資金供給者的風險。 2、初期可先透過國外的鑑價機制和交易市場來進行。 二、遠期營運模式： 建立具有國際化的鑑價機構和交易市場，根據「契約自由化」原則，只要交易雙方對於契約內容達成一致性的決議，則交易即可完成，以促進自由市場高流動性的運作。 關鍵字：智慧財產權融資、新創科技公司、創業投資公司、銀行、鑑價機制、技術交易市場、信用保證基金、關鍵要素。 / By the coming of the new economy, high-tech start-ups are mushrooming like bamboo shoots after a spring rain. The value of high-tech start-ups does not base on hard assets, but of their principal assets. The principal assets contain both the intangible assets and intellectual property right (IPR), such as patent, trademark, copyright, license contract as well as R&D team. However, traditional financial statements record only the past financial profile and operating results of companies. They've invested large amount of money on R&D, and therefore, to obtain the IPR. But the right obtained can not be shown on the financial statements. As a result, a large number of high-tech start-ups are underestimated, and unfortunately, most of the potential high-tech start-ups were not able to survive due to the inability to find the fund needed. From the view of the practical operating management, this study discusses problems that should be confronted when operating the financing IPR. Moreover, according to the problems found, the study anticipates by offering the operating mechanism and feasible business models for financing IPR. As we know, the majority of risk lies in the fund suppliers when financing IPR, so mostly the feasibility of financing IPR depends on fund suppliers that will receive IPR as collateral under a certain number requirements possessed. Thus, the study will then offer suggestions mainly in terms of fund suppliers, and the focus will be on domestic banks and venture capitalists. Based on the literature review, group focus interview, individuall interview, posted survey and so on are conducted for the study. Some of insights are derived as bellow: 1. For overseas countries, the financing IPR is just at the beginning period. There are differences in the business models of financing IPR between western countries and eastern countries. 2. There are few real cases about financing IPR in Taiwan although there are some basic laws to apply for financing IPR. Nevertheless, more related regulations are needed. 3. Most of the venture capitalists evaluate high-tech start-ups in an overall way. Hence, excluding a small numbers of high-tech start-ups such as bio-tech companies, IPR is not the only key evaluation factor. 4. The model of financing IPR has an indirect influence to venture capitalists. They emphasize more on the valuation mechanism and the technology marketplace. 5. The profit of traditional banks in Taiwan comes from the interest. From the conservative operating system, these banks are hard to accept the financing IPR that is with high risk. 6. The domestic banks are in short of the IPR valuation and IPR management capabilities. Thus, these problems should first be solved, and then the financing IPR will be able to be taken into action. 7. The domestic banks are in favor of reducing risk by getting guarantee from the government. 8. In terms of the whole financial environment in Taiwan, there are lots of difficulties in the concepts of IPR, valuation mechanism, management capability, technology marketplace, laws and decrees and so forth to be confronted. Above all, financing IPR has high risk in Taiwan at the moment. Therefore, this paper recommends that feasible business models of financing IPR should be divided as follow: 1. Short-run business model: (1) Diversify the risk of the fund suppliers from the guarantee fund offered by the government. (2) Finance IPR by foreign valuation mechanism and technology marketplace. 2. Long-run business model: First, more efforts should be put to set up our own international valuation institutions and technology marketplace. Second, the financing IPR should be taken by contract liberalization principle in compliance with the mechanism of the free market. When both sides agree to the contract, then the deal will be done. By doing so,the IPR financing will be highly promoted at the same time. Key words: Financing IPR, High-tech Start-ups, Venture Capitalists, Domestic Banks, Valuation Mechanism, Technology Marketplace, Credit Guarantee Fund, Key factors.

人口政策的制定需要人口推估作基礎。近年世界各國人口推估逐漸從專家意見推估走向機率推估，常見的機率推估分成三大類，隨機推估、模擬情境、推估誤差三種，本文所使用的人口推估方法為隨機推估法結合生育率之模擬情境方法，在人口變動要素組合法 (Cohort Component Method) 之下輔以電腦模擬的區塊拔靴法 (Block Bootstrap)，針對台灣地區與台灣北、中、南、東四地區進行人口推估。另外，本文試圖在隨機模型人口推估中加入遷移人口之考量，以期針對遷移人口在數量與其影響上都能有較深入的了解，比較區塊拔靴法與經建會推估之差異後發現遷移之考量確實會影響人口推估之結果。 / 針對與全區相符的小區域人口推估，本文亦提出可使得推估一致的方法，但其缺點為限制了生育、死亡人口要素之變動性。此推估在總數上與隨機推估方法差異不大，但在人口結構上則有明顯的差別，此差別可能是來自於死亡率在四區間差異造成。 / Population projection is important to policy making, and only with accurate population projection can the government achieve suitable policy planning and improve the welfare of the society. The most popular and well-known population projection method is the Cohort Component method, proposed since 1930’s. The trends of future fertility, mortality and migration are required, in order to apply the cohort component method. Currently in Taiwan, these trends are determined according to experts’ opinions (or scenario projection) and three future scenarios are assumed: high, median and low scenarios. One of the drawbacks in applying experts’ opinions is that the projection results of these three scenarios do not have the meaning in probability. / To modify the expert’ opinions and let the projection results carry the meaning in probability, many demographic researchers have developed stochastic projection methods. The proposed stochastic methods can be categorized into three groups: stochastic forecast, random scenario and ex post methods. In this study, we introduce these stochastic methods and evaluate the possibility of applying the methods in projecting the population in Taiwan. / In this study we use block bootstrap, a computer simulation and stochastic forecast method, to determine the trends of future fertility, mortality and migration in Taiwan, and combine it with the cohort component method for population projection in Taiwan. We compare the projection results with those from the Council for Economic Planning and Development (a scenario projection). We found that the block bootstrap is a possible alternative to the scenario projection in population projection, and the numbers of migration is small but have a non-ignorable influence on the future population. However, we also found that the block bootstrap alone might not be appropriate for population projection in small areas.

中小企業為台灣企業的主體，並為台灣帶來穩定的就業機會和經濟貢獻；然而這些中小企業在累積了十年以上的深厚技術根柢和豐富的成功經驗後，往往因為生產管理技術無法與時俱進以及顧客消費習慣改變而難以繼續成長。 上述之中小企業的經營瓶頸以營造業最為顯著和迫切。營造業泛指從事土木、建築工程及其相關業務之營繕工程的廠商，以及提供周邊服務，如建材生產和營造租賃等廠商；而以中小企業為主體、素有帶動經濟發展之「火車頭工業」美譽的營造業受限於營繕工程以層層分包和低價者得標的交易方式，使得工程承包商只能以價格競爭來搶奪有限的建案，導致公司的營運受到影響；而觀察台灣整體營造業營業支出，可發現主要的成本發生在建築材料的採購上，因此，藉由降低建築材料生產成本以降低售價將可有效降低承包商的採購成本，進而提升利潤空間。 精實生產系統以及時生產系統為核心，藉由及時生產系統於流程管理、員工管理，以及品質管理上的實務作為將產品生產過程中的各項作業整合來發展精實生產系統在與供應商、中心廠商，以及顧客有關的十大精實要素，進而消除生產系統因原料供給、生產作業，以及顧客需求的不確定性而產生的浪費，以達到用最少的庫存和作業活動來降低生產作業的成本進而建立競爭優勢。 因此為降低建材的生產成本，可藉由價值溪流圖的協助在生產建材的中心廠商導入精實生產系統進而達到降低生產成本和提高生產效率的目的；然而受限於營造業專案導向產業特性和獨一無二的營繕專案，以及目前精實生產系統之主要探討個案多為製造業，造成目前學界對於中小企業的營造業和精實生產系統兩者之適用性探討和研究較為緩慢；因此若能確定其適用性和建立個案討論，將有助於未來提升台灣中小企業的營造業之競爭力，並提供中小企業管理者在進行生產作業改善時的參考。 本研究利用個案研究法分析專營建材加工生產的中小企業A公司，藉由與公司創辦人面對面訪談、生產線實地觀察，以及蒐集生產數據等方式探討A公司的生產作業流程，並以A公司生產具代表性顧客產品的兩條生產線為例，藉由繪製價值溪流圖來找出潛在的浪費，並制定具體的精實生產系統導入方案以及預期的精實改善結果。 本研究以實務驗證精實生產系統於台灣營造業的中小企業的適用性，研究發現在價值溪流圖的協助下，與中心廠商有關的精實生產要素可適用於營造業的中小企業，並且能夠有效的降低生產成本和提升生產效率；而與供應商和顧客相關的精實生產要素雖然可能受限於中小企業的規模和資源而難以發展，但是在善用自身的能力下，仍可有限度的達到部分的精實生產目標。 / The small and medium enterprises （SMEs） are the majority of Taiwanese enterprise and has been providing stable job opportunity and contribution to Taiwanese economy; However, after having been successful for a decade, the Taiwanese SMEs are having stagnant growth because of their inability to keep up with the up-to-date production management techniques and ever-changing consumer preferences. Among all of the Taiwanese SMEs, the SMEs in construction industry are suffering the most significant challenge from stagnant growth. The Taiwanese construction industry includes contractors and provider of services such as building material manufacturers, and is mostly consisted of SMEs and is well-known for its economic impact on other related industries and thus also known as “Development Driver of All Industries”. Although having significant impact on economy, the SMEs in construction industry are facing fierce price competition that would greatly contract their profit margin and thus seriously affect their survival. The cause of such price competition is that most of the major construction projects are divided into several minor contracts and assigned to the sub-contractors with the lowest tender bids. Therefore, in order to compete for limited construction projects without affecting the profit margin, the contractors need to minimize their tender price by conserving the total construction cost for each minor contracts. According to the government statistics, the major expenditure in construction industry lies in the cost of building materials. Therefore, if the manufacturers are able to decrease the cost of production for building materials and reflect the conserved cost to the selling price, the contractors would have more profit margin. In order to effectively reduce such manufacturing cost, the manufacturer can implement lean production into their current production system. With the assistance of Value Stream Mapping （VSM）, an effective lean production implementation tool, the manufacturers would be able to develop lean production’s 10 elements within the supply chain by facilitating the Just-in-Time production system to eliminate wastes caused by unstable production system and therefore integrating the operation activities among the supply chain, and eventually achieve the goal of reducing the cost of manufacturing building materials. However, the applicability of lean production on SMEs in construction industry has not yet been fully discussed. The project-oriented characteristic, one-of-a-kind construction projects, and lack of international competition have made construction industry slow in developing lean production, in spite of the potential advantage it may bring to the industry. Therefore, it would be a great assistance if we can confirm lean production is applicable in Taiwanese SMEs in construction industry. This research takes a Taiwanese SME building material factory as case study. By interviewing with the factory founder, inspecting production line, and collecting production statistics, we can explore the applicability of lean production on SMEs in Taiwanese construction industry, and by using VSM, we are able to identify the hidden waste and subsequently develop an improvement plan that would facilitate the key elements of lean production as well as the estimated implementation result. According to the research results, the lean production elements within the factory are applicable and are able to effectively decrease the cost of production and increase the efficiency of the production system. In addition to this, although limited by size and resources, the SMEs can still facilitate their inward ability to compensate the inability to develop the lean elements within supplier and customer, and thus achieve the goal of lean production.

神經系統裡，神經滋養因子在調控細胞分化與生存作用中扮演非常重要的角色，近年來的研究顯示 BDNF 的神經保護效果是透過細胞外訊息調控激酶 (extracellular signal-regulated kinase, ERK) 及磷脂酰肌醇3-激酶 (phosphatidylinositol-3 kinase, PI3K) 訊息傳遞路徑調控，然而，還有許多其他的細胞信號傳遞路徑可能參與 BDNF 的保護作用機制中。而蛋白激酶 CK2 (casein kinase 2) 是一種普遍存在於細胞且具有高度保留序列的絲胺酸/蘇胺酸蛋白質激酶，在細胞中具有非常重要的地位。近來研究有非常多證據支持 CK2 是細胞凋亡的抑制者。此外，血清反應因子 (serum response factor, SRF) 是一種轉錄因子，會與保留序列 SRE (即 CArG box) 相結合，而此段序列過去曾在早期即時表現基因 (如 c-fos、Egr ) ，或是抗細胞凋亡基因－Mcl-1－上的啟動子被發現， SRF 調控著基因的活化，進而與細胞增生、存活、突觸活性相關聯，然而調節 SRE 調控之基因的作用機制尚未十分明瞭。因此，本論文研究主要探討在 PC12 細胞中， BDNF調節 SRE 調控轉錄作用機轉 CK2 是否參與其中? 由冷光酶活性試驗結果顯示 BDNF 會顯著地促進 SRE 的轉錄活性，並且當 CK2α 過度表現亦會促進 SRE 調控的轉錄活性，而利用小干擾 RNA 抑制內生性 CK2α 生成，則會降低 SRE 的轉錄活性，更進一步證明 CK2α siRNA 會降低 BDNF 促進 SRE 調控的轉錄活性。此外，將 CK2α 與 SRF S99A 質體一同轉染至細胞中，會減緩 CK2 促進的 SRE 啟動子轉錄活性。為了探討 CK2 調控 SRE 的轉錄活性在神經保護作用裡扮演的角色，因此，將 CK2 蛋白表現量增加是否會保護 PC12 細胞對抗Rotenone所誘發的細胞凋亡傷害?結果顯示 CK2 表現量增加會保護細胞對抗Rotenone誘導的細胞凋亡，並減緩 Rotenone 對 SRE 調控的轉錄活性降低，但是，突變型 SRF S99A 蛋白會降低 CK2α 的影響作用。這些結果顯示 BDNF 促進 SRE 調控的基因表現是會透過 CK2 訊息傳遞路徑。 / The neurotrophins play an important role in cell differentiation and survival of the nervous system. Among them, the neuroprotective effects of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is showed to be mediated by extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) and phosphatidylinositol-3 kinase (PI3K) signaling pathway in the recent studies. However, other cellular signaling pathways might be involved in these effects of BDNF. Protein kinase CK2 (casein kinase 2) is a ubiquitous and highly conserved serine/threonine protein kinase and is indicated as a vital cellular role. In recent years, evidences have been mounted in support of the importance of CK2 in the suppression of apoptosis. Serum response factor (SRF) is a transcription factor binding to a consensus DNA sequence SRE (known as a CArG box) which was found in the promoters of some immediately early genes (such as c-fos, Egr) and anti-apoptotic Mcl-1 gene. The activations of SRF-regulated genes were associated with cell proliferation, cell survival and perception of synaptic activity. However, the regulatory mechanism of SRE-mediated genes is not well studied. The SRE-mediated transcription activity through CK2 signaling by BDNF treatment was studied in the PC12 cells in the present study. Results revealed that BDNF significantly increased the SRE promoter activity by luciferase report assay. The SRE-mediated transcription activity was increased by overexpression of CK2α, and the inhibition of endogenous CK2α by small interfering RNA was also shown to reduce this transcription activity. Furthermore, CK2α siRNA treatment antagonized the up-regulation effects of BDNF on SRE-mediated transcription activity. The co-transfection of CK2 and mutant SRF S99A plasmids significantly diminished up-regulatory effects of CK2 on SRE promoter activity. To test this CK2 induction in SRE-mediated transcription plays a role in neuroprotecion, we determined whether over-expression CK2 protects PC12 cells against rotenone-induced apoptosis. The results revealed that the over-expression of CK2α protected cells against rotenone-induced apoptosis and rescued the SRE-mediated transcription activity. Further, these effects of CK2α were blocked by co-transfection of mutant SRF S99A. These above results demonstrate that the up-regulation of BDNF on SRE-mediated genes is through CK2 signaling pathway.

台灣地區的人口隨著生育率及死亡率的雙重下降而呈現快速老化，其中生育率的降低影響尤為顯著。民國50年時，台灣平均每位婦女生育5.58個小孩，到了民國70年卻只生育1.67個小孩，去年（民國90年）生育率更創歷年新低，只有1.4。死亡率的下降可由平均壽命的延長看出，民國75年時男性為70.97歲，女性為75.88歲；到了民國90年，男性延長到72.75歲，女性延長到78.49歲。由於生育率的變化幅度高於死亡率，對人口結構的影響較大，因此本文分成兩個部份，主要在研究台灣地區15至49歲婦女生育率的變化趨勢，再將研究結果用於台灣地區未來人口總數及其結構的預測。 　　本研究第一部分是生育率的研究，引進Gamma函數、Gompertz函數、Lee-Carter法三種模型及單一年齡組個別估計法，以民國40年至84年（西元1951年至1995年）的資料為基礎，民國85年至89年（西元1996年至2000年）資料為檢測樣本，比較模型的優劣，尋求較適合台灣地區生育率的模型，再以最合適的模型預測民國91年至140年（西元2002年至2051年）的生育率。第二部分是人口推估，採用人口變動要素合成方法（Cohort Component Projection Method）推估台灣地區未來50年的人口總數及其結構，其中生育率採用上述最適合台灣地區的模型、死亡率則引進國外知名的Lee-Carter法及SOA法（Society of Actuaries），探討人口結構，並與人力規劃處的結果比較之。 / Both the fertility rate and mortality rate have been experiencing dramatic decreases in recent years. As a result, the population aging has become one of the major concerns in Taiwan area, and the proportion of the elderly (age 65 and over) increases promptly from 2.6% in 1965 to 8.8% in 2001. The decrease of fertility rate is especially significant. For example, the total fertility rate was 5.58 in 1961, and then decreases dramatically to 1.67 in 1981 (1.4 in 2001), a reduction of almost 70% within 20 years. 　　The goal of this paper is to study the population aging in Taiwan area, in particular, the fertility pattern. The first part of this paper is to explore the fertility models and decide which model is the most suitable based on age-fertility fertility rates in Taiwan. The models considered are Gamma function, Gompertz function, Lee-Carter method and individual group estimation. We use the data from 1951 to 1995 as pilot data and 1996 to 2000 as test data to judge which model fit well. The second part of this study is to project the Taiwan population for the next 50 years, i.e. 2002-2051. The projection method used is Cohort Component Projection method, assuming the population in Taiwan area is closed. We also compare our projection result to that by Council for Economic Planning and Development, the Executive Yuan of the Republic of China.

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近年、自動車の電動化が加速しており、車両駆動を担うモータのさらなる効率向上が求められている。高効率モータ設計に向けて、主な損失の１つである鉄損予測の精度向上が求められている。本論文では、鉄損を構成する各種損失の中から、実用的なモデル化手法が確立していない、異常渦電流損に関して、磁気測定から影響を与える諸因子を検討した。また、得られた知見に基づき、モータ鉄損予測にあたり、実用的なモデルを開発した。 / In recent years, electrification of automobiles has accelerated, and further improvement in efficiency of motors that drive the vehicles is required. For high-efficiency motor design, it is important to improve the accuracy of iron loss estimation, which is one of the main losses in the motor. In this paper, we investigated influencing factors of excess loss, which is one element that consists iron loss and has not been established as practical estimating modeling, from the magnetic measurement. In addition, based on the obtained knowledge, a practical model was developed for motor iron loss estimation. / 博士(工学) / Doctor of Philosophy in Engineering / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University