經濟理論明白揭示，在不確定下，金融性資產的選擇不僅要考慮其未來報 酬率的平均值，更需將風險程度納入決策過程中。而最佳風險測度為預測 誤差的變異數(Variance of Forec ast Error)。傳統實証方法均視變異 數為固定常數，實無法掌握變異數具有條件異質性的特點。為了到達此目 的，Engle(1982) 提出向量自迴歸條件異質變異數(ARCH)模型，此模型假 定條件變異數不再是固定常數而是過去干擾項平方的線型函數，為實証方 法上一項偉大的突破。在考慮多個變數的聯立動態體系中，由於跨方程式 間可以互相提供額外的訊息，往往可以增加估計的效率性，直覺上比單變 數的設定更能掌握資料的實際情形。故往後的學者便提出了多元自迴歸條 件異質變異數(Multivariate ARCH) 模型，此一模型亦有其缺點存在，因 其待估計參數過多，形成自由度嚴重減少，將導致估計值缺乏效率性。所 以如何利用可獲得的有限資料對模型進行更有效率的估計方式，此為研究 Multivaria te ARCH的重要課題。本文將對Multivariate ARCH做一系列 的介紹，並利用VAR 的貝氏方法對參數進行估計。而多元因素AR CH模型 也是探討的重點。

本研究利用書目計量學與引用文獻分析法分析引用1998年至2008年資訊科學重要期刊之特性。四種代表性期刊分別為Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology、Information Processing and Management、Journal of Information Science以及Journal of Documentation，研究樣本取自WOS資料庫，共計9579篇書目資料。希冀藉由分析探討引用資訊科學文獻之分佈現象與主題範疇，以觀察其他學科與資訊科學學科的互動關係。 本研究結果歸納如下：(1)資訊科學期刊被引用文獻篇數數量隨年代增長。(2)研究型文章為引用資訊科學期刊文獻最主要的資料類型。(3)本研究不完全符合布萊德福與布萊德福-齊夫定律，但可經由布萊德福-齊夫定律圖解，觀察出核心期刊有七種，核心期刊主題以圖書館學與資訊科學為主。 (4)引用資訊科學期刊文獻之學科大類分佈情況，以引用圖書館學門以及科學類為主，JOD是圖書館學門重要的參考期刊。(5)期刊及圖書主題分佈以被圖書資訊學主題和資訊檢索引用最多。(6)高被引用文獻以JASIST所佔比例最多，顯示JASIST是高生產力與高品質兼具的期刊，是資訊科學最重要且最受關注的文獻來源。(7)高被引主題以全球資訊網最多，其次為線上資訊檢索以及搜尋。(8)高被引作者共21位，目前皆任職於學校機構，以從事資訊科學、資訊研究領域為主，研究主題則是資訊檢索、資訊計量學等為多。這21位核心作者可以說是目前資訊科學界的核心領導作者。 本研究結果可應用於館藏發展與管理之參考，界定重要的期刊與圖書文獻來源，有助於圖書館或相關研究單位規劃、建立完整的資訊科學研究架構，以支援研究。同時，可將本研究之分析應用於資訊科學領域研究者，提供投稿之參考、了解目前研究主流以及未來的發展趨勢等，並可提供於資訊科學期刊編輯者，讓其了解該期刊之表現，適時調整，作為期刊長期追蹤的參考。 / Through bibliometric approach and citation analysis, this study analyzed the related disciplines and subjects of literature citing the important Information Science journals during 1998 to 2008. The four leading Information Science journals are Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, Information Processing and Management, Journal of Information Science, and Journal of Documentation. A total of 9579 bibliographic data were from WOS database. Results show that：(1) The cited times of Information Science journals increased steadily. (2) Journal article is the main documentation type citing Information Science journals. (3)The distribution of literature citing Information Science journals does not exactly fit Bradford’s Law and Bradford-Zipf Law. However, by observation on Bradford-Zipf Law graph, there are seven core journals. The chief fields of core journals are Library Science & Information Science, and Information Science. (4) Primary disciplines of literature citing Information Science journals are Library Science & Information Science, and Science. JOD is the important reference journal in Library Science & Information Science discipline. (5) The subjects of journals and books highly citing Information Science journals are Library Science & Information Science, and Information Retrieval. (6) JASIST is highly cited, showing that it is both a high productivity and high quality journal. (7) The highly cited subject is World Wide Web, and followed by information retrieval and search. (8) The highly cited authors, who mainly serve in college and most of whom hold the post in the related Information Retrieval and Information Study departments, defined in this study amount to 21. Most of them specialize in information retrieval and informetrics. Finally, the results of this study can be applied to collection development and management, and identify the core journal and books. It assists libraries or information centers in planning and establishing complete research framework on Information Science.

我國數位典藏計畫自民國87年起至今已發展逾十四年，並於民國91年啟動數位典藏國家型科技計畫。目前已有超過100餘個圖書館、檔案館及博物館等機構參與，且具有多元豐富的主題內容。 本研究旨在探討我國數位典藏計畫自民國91年至99年間之學術論文成果，包含民國97年至99年數位典藏與數位學習國家型科技計畫之成果文獻。本研究採用書目計量學進行文獻特性與跨領域合作分析，經資料蒐集及統計後共計3,032筆書目。首先，針對近九年書目進行文獻特性與主題分析，再者，針對近三年文獻作者計1,186位，進一步進行跨機構與跨領域合作分析。希冀透過本研究，檢視我國數位典藏計畫近九年之學術論文成果分析，並觀察我國數位典藏計畫參與機構/成員間之跨領域合作情形。 本研究結果歸納如下：1.我國數位典藏與數位學習計畫學術研究多元，以研討會論文類型發表居多；2.我國數位典藏與數位學習計畫文獻內容以系統建置與技術服務主題居多，觀察近三年文獻主題則以「數位學習與教育」方面文獻數則較多，可推論因97年起與「數位學習國家型科技計畫」計畫合併，因而在數位學習方面之文獻數量比例增加。3.近三年機構生產力排名為國立臺灣師範大學、中央研究院、國立中央大學、國立臺灣大學、國立臺南大學；4.近三年作者領域以人文及社會科學與工程技術為背景居多；5.近三年作者跨領域合作以工程技術與科學教育合著情形居多。 / The Taiwan Digital Archives Program had been developed 14 years since 1998. Presently, more than 100 libraries, archives and museums and other institutions had involved, and the digital content range covering art, humanities history and life science. This study aimed to explore the Taiwan Digital Archives Program from 2002 to 2007 and its successor of Taiwan Digital Archives and e-Learning Program from 2008 to 2010 as research scope. The research is to find out characteristics of the literature production and to look into the interdisciplinary collaboration between co-authors. The major findings are as follows: a. Taiwan Digital Archives and e-Learning Program has diverse research and development, and types of published papers were mainly conference papers. b. The subject of published papers of Taiwan Digital Archives and e-Learning Program were mainly system building and technical services. However, to observe in recent years the literature subjects are mainly e-learning and education. c. The past three years of productivity rankings in sequence is National Taiwan Normal University, Academia Sinica, National Central University, National Taiwan University and National University of Tainan. d. The past three years of author background is mainly humanities and social sciences and engineering and technical. e. To observe the interdisciplinary collaboration of co-authors is between engineering technology and science education.

在技術快速變遷的環境中，如何迅速掌握與研發相關的情報以協助研發決策的制訂，已經成為企業重要的競爭優勢來源。近年來，由於電腦運算能力的快速提昇，使用電腦輔助企業自動、快速地從大量增加的科技資訊（特別是專利和論文）中淬取出攸關的資訊，就成為了近年來產業界和學術界積極研究的目標。 在眾多方法中，使用書目計量分析和專利分析方法是最引人注目的方法之一。使用書目計量分析和專利分析可以從龐大的論文和專利資訊中，快速瞭解科技發展的動態：包括瞭解科技發展的階段為何，熱門的科技領域為何，重要的作者和企業為何等等。然而，現階段的書目計量分析和專利分析雖然可以協助瞭解科技發展的全貌，對於科技發展下技術發明活動與科學研究活動的關聯性，以及不同的科技發展階段裡發明人和作者的動態關係，卻仍然缺少相關的研究。 因此，本研究提出以下三點研究問題： 1. 不同類型的論文作者和專利發明人的科學研究／技術發明活動，與技術發展階段的關聯性為何？ 2. 發明作者的技術發明／科學研究活動與一般發明人或作者的差異為何？ 3. 發明作者的技術發明活動與科學研究活動關係為何？ 針對以上的研究問題，本研究首先通過回顧相關文獻以建立分析發明人和作者的研究架構，再蒐集專利和論文的資料並依照架構的需要處理資料，最後進行分析與討論以得到研究結論。 本研究主要獲得以下三點研究結論： 1. 天才發明人是技術發展處於萌芽期時專利發明的要角，而關鍵發明人大多在技術發展進入成長期時才投入專利發明。至於頂尖作者，則在技術發展的萌芽期、成長期和成熟期都是論文發表的要角。 2. 關鍵發明人有很高的機會是頂尖作者，而發明作者如果不是關鍵發明人，則其專利發明的表現有略高的機會較其他發明人更差。 3. 大部份發明作者的專利發明活動在論文發表活動之後；但是關鍵發明人則較傾向先申請專利，再發表主題高度相關的論文。 / Mining information to improve corporate R&D decision making had been an important source of competitive advantage in the rapid changing technological environment. Recently, extracting relevant information quickly and automatically from massive amount of technological data (especially patent and scientific publications) with the aide of computer had become an active research area for both industrial and academic researchers due to ever-growing computing power. Among the methods of retrieving technological information, bibliometrics and patent analysis are two of the most attractive ones. Bibliometrics and patent analysis provide a quick way to capture the dynamics of technological development, including the stage of technological development, active technological research area and important researchers/corporates, etc. Although bibliometrics and patent analysis are helpful to understand the landscape of technological development, there still lacks researches about the relationship between scientific invention and research activities as well as the dynamics between patent inventors and publication authors along different stages of technological development. Hence, this research raises the following questions: 1. What is the relation between scientific research/invention activities and technological development stages for different categories of publication authors and patent inventors? 2. What is the difference of scientific research/invention activities between Inventor-Authors and other inventors/authors? 3. What is the relation between scientific research and invention activities of Inventor-Authors? This research reviews related researches to define a research framework connecting authors, inventors and technological development stages. Then patent and publication data are collected and processed based on the research framework. This research conclusion is made after analysis and discussion. Conclusion of the research includes the followings: 1. "Talent Inventors" play important role when the technological development is in "Emerging" stage, and "Key Inventors" starts patent inventions after the technological development enters "Growth" stage. "Top Authors" play important role across "Emerging", "Growth" and "Maturity" stages of technological development. 2. "Key Inventors" are more probable to be also "Top Author". "Inventor-Authors" who are not "Key Inventors" are more probably to perform worse than other inventors. 3. Most "Inventor-Authors" apply for patents after papers of highly related topics are published. But "Key Inventors" tend to apply for patents before papers of highly related topics are published.

隨著經濟發展與所得水準提升，臺灣地區就業人口由早期的第一級產業－農林漁牧業逐漸移向第二級產業－工業，再由第二級產業轉移至第三級產業－服務業。為瞭解臺灣地區服務業就業之趨勢，國內多數研究僅就蒐集資料以年齡、年代或世代三方面分別作探討，本文則改採流行病學領域中所廣泛使用之年齡－年代－世代模型（Age-Period-Cohort Model），就行政院主計處「人力資源調查」資料來作分析。但年齡、年代與世代三者間存在共線性問題（即世代＝年代－年齡），導致迴歸模型產生無限多組解，為了自其中選出一組較適當之參數估計值，文獻中提供了許多不同形式的解決方法。本文則採用Fu（2000）所提出之本質估計量（Intrinsic Estimator，簡稱IE），這是一種不受參數限制式影響的估計方式。我們除了藉以取得惟一的參數估計值，進而分析年齡、年代及世代效應對服務業就業比率之影響外，並與傳統之受限廣義線性模型估計量（Constrained Generalized Linear Models Estimator，簡稱CGLIME）作一比較，來說明採用本質估計量之優點及方便之處。 / Along with economical development and higher income level, Taiwan area employed population has gradually been switching from farming, forestry, fishing and animal husbandry to goods-producing industries, and then onto services-producing industries. In order to understand the trend of employment in service-producing industries in Taiwan, most domestic studies focus on the aspects of age, period or cohort separately. We, instead, adopt the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model, which is well recognized in the epidemiology, to analyze the data from “Manpower Surveys” conducted by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, R.O.C. in this study. However, due to the collinearity among the age, period, and cohort effects, the APC model suffers from the identifiability problem. Some possible solutions have been provided in the literature. Among them, the Constrained Generalized Linear Models Estimator (CGIME) is undoubtedly the most popular choice, while the Intrinsic Estimator (IE) (Fu (2000)), which is invariant to the constraint selected to obtain the parameter estimates, is less well-known. We compare the results obtained from IE with that of CGIME in this study, and discuss the advantages of using the Intrinsic Estimator.

本研究試圖從研究資訊社會之期刊文獻進行觀察，借此瞭解資訊社會相關議題研究與各學科領域之間的關係，並得知資訊社會對各領域發展的影響以及深入瞭解資訊社會的研究內涵和未來發展趨勢。故針對書目資料庫中的出版頻率、出版語言、期刊出版國別、期刊來源、被引次數、學科主題類別和文獻類型欄位，進行各項書目資料的數據分析。 　　本研究以書目計量學的方法分析1963年至2011年間，資訊社會期刊文獻之特性，借此瞭解資訊社會相關研究的學科主題範疇及其未來發展趨勢。研究樣本取自WOK所涵蓋的SCIE、SSCI與A&HCI三大資料庫，針對書目資料進行期刊文獻的分佈分析，以界定出資訊社會文獻之核心期刊，並應用高生產力期刊、高被引用期刊、影響係數與被JCR收錄的狀況，深入了解這些核心期刊之學科主題範疇與驗證核心期刊之品質。透過對資訊社會文獻之學科主題分佈狀況及變化分析，藉此瞭解資訊社會之相關研究為何種學科以及哪些學科受資訊社會影響最深。最後，整合分析與判斷資訊社會相關研究議題之研究領域與發展趨勢。 　　研究結果歸納如下：（一）資訊社會之文獻分佈相當分散，但仍有其核心期刊。（二）資訊社會期刊文獻分佈大致符合布萊德福定律，但與布萊德福-齊夫定律曲線並不完全吻合。（三）核心期刊與前十名核心期刊的文獻類型皆以期刊文章為主。（四）核心期刊的學科主題分類以資訊科學與圖書館學為主。（五）核心區之期刊品質值得信任。（六）資訊科學與圖書館學是探討資訊社會文獻最主要的學科主題。（七）資訊社會文獻正處於蓬勃發展階段。（八）教育與教育研究、經濟學、管理學這三個學科主題，未來將會成為探討資訊社會相關研究最多的學科主題。（九）資訊社會文獻之出版國別以英國居首，出版語言以英文為主。 　　本研究結果可讓資訊社會相關研究人員瞭解過去、目前與未來探討資訊社會議題的學科領域，以供他們在資訊充裕的大海中挑選出更適合、更熱門、更具影響力的期刊與文獻。同時，亦可作為圖書館的館藏發展與管理之參考。 / The purpose of this research is to find out the relationship between the discussions of the Information Societies within various disciplines, development of the information society, the research content of the Information Society and its future trends. We adopt the frequencies of the publication, publication languages, journal countries of publications, journal sources, time-cited, disciplines of subject categories and document type field from the bibliographic database as analyst component. 　　This study analyzes the characteristics of Information Society literatures from 1963 to 2011 by a Bibliometric Approach. These data are retrieved from SCIE, SSCI and A&HCI database which were covered by WOK. This research focuses on the distribution analysis of the journal literatures in order to define the core journals of this field. In addition, include the highly productive journals, cited journal, impact factor and the collected status by JCR to verify the quality of the previous stated core journals. Through analyzing the distributions and changes of the disciplines, we have a full screen on what subjects the information society related and what affections influenced by these subjects areas. Through integration and determination, this study reveals the future trends of the Information Society. 　　The results of the research as follow: (1) The distribution of information society is quite dispersed, but core journals still available. (2) The distribution of the Information Society journals are roughly fits Bradford Law, but not fully consistent with Bradford-Zipf’s S-shaped curve. (3) The document type covered most by the core journal and top ten core journals are articles (4) Information Science and Library Science is the main discipline in core journal area. (5) The qualities of the core journals are reliable. (6) Information Science and Library Science covered most of the disciplines in the literatures of information society. (7) Information Society’s literatures are under a flourishing development (8) Education and Educational research, Economics and Management will cover most of the disciplines to explore the information society. (9) UK is the major countries of information society publication and English is the most often used language. 　　Finally, the results of this research provide a full screen on researchers in order to understand the past, current and future of the information society issues, to pick out more suitable, more popular and more influential journals and literatures. Furthermore, this study can be used as reference to the library's collection development and management.

江戸時代の作家である井原西鶴(1642～1694)の浮世草子には、一部に偽作・補作があるのではないかという疑惑が残る等、未だ論争が繰り広げられている。それらのなかで解明すべき重要な課題として、西鶴没後に門下の北条団水(1663～1711)によって編集、出版された遺稿集5作品の著者に関する疑問がある。本研究では西鶴浮世草子24作品、団水浮世草子3作品、西鶴の役者評判記、浄瑠璃、地誌の4作品の計641,380語を用い、客観的に計量可能な情報を統計手法で分析することで、西鶴、団水の文章を比較検討し、遺稿集の著者問題について文章の数量分析の観点から解明を試みた。 / 博士(文化情報学) / Doctor of Culture and Information Science / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University

本論文では，計量的な手法を用いて川端康成の代筆問題と文体問題に取り組み，次に挙げたことを明らかにした。①小説『乙女の港』と『花日記』は川端康成と中里恒子の共同執筆である。②『コスモスの友』，『古都』，『眠れる美女』と『山の音』は代筆の可能性が低い。③泉鏡花，徳田秋聲と横光利一と比べ川端康成文体の存在が確認され，終戦の1945 年を境に川端康成の語彙の豊富さと，機能語の助詞，副詞，接続詞に変化が見られた。 / In this study, we revealed the following ghostwriting and writing style problem of Kawabata quantitatively. ①Otome no minato and Hana nikki were colloboratively written by Kawabata and Nakazato. ② Kosumosu no tomo, The Old Capital, House of the Sleeping Beauties, and The Sound of the Mountain were not written by the suspected ghostwriters. ③ Kawabata has his own writing style as compared to novels written by Izumi, Tokuda, and Yokomitsu. Changes were observed in vocabulary richness, postpositional particles, adverb, and conjunctions in Kawabata's novels after the second world war. / 博士(文化情報学) / Doctor of Culture and Information Science / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University

宇野浩二は精神病や挫折による執筆の空白期間を経るたびに異なる文体を編み出すと言われる作家である。本研究は、作品からデータを抽出し、計量的分析手法を用いて、宇野浩二の文体変化に関する諸問題を解明することを目的とする。文芸評論を踏まえ、病気後の文体変化、文体変化の時期、戦後の文体変化、同時代作家との比較の四つの問題を取り上げ、客観的なデータの分析結果に基づき、宇野浩二の文体特徴、文体変化の時期および戦後作品の独特性を明らかにした。 / Kouji Uno is a well-known Japanese littérateur, whose creative activity was interrupted twice because of a mental illness and frustrations. It was reported that his writing style had changed when he resumed writing. The study aims to investigated the differences of Kouji Uno's writing style in his different stages by using quantitative analysis. We demonstrated Uno's stylistic changes after the mental illness, the exact time of these changes, and the characteristics of works published after the War based on the literary criticism and statistical results. In addition, we clarified the uniqueness of his postwar works through a comparative analysis with contemporary writers. / 博士(文化情報学) / Doctor of Culture and Information Science / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University

紐伯瑞獎為創設於1922年的美國兒童文學獎，每年頒發給最傑出的美國兒童圖書的文字作者。創設至今，培育出無數傑出作家及優秀作品。不唯為全美兒童文學獎項的權威，也是全世界相關領域的師法對象。本研究採取書目計量法，探索1922年到2015年美國紐伯瑞獎作者背景、作品體裁與題材分佈，並透過台灣NBINet及中國CALIS蒐集中譯本書目，以瞭解作品中譯本出版狀況。研究結果歸納如下，一、作者背景：(1)作者有279名，美國與紐約州出生者最多，女性是男性的2倍，平均壽命78.3歲；(2)集中在30到59歲首度獲獎；(3) 1次得獎者最多，Meindert DeJong及Laura Ingalls Wilder創下最高得獎次數5次。二、作品體裁與題材：(1)體裁最多的是小說、傳記、短篇；(2)題材最多的是歷史、現實、冒險。三、作品中譯本：(1)54%的作品有中譯本，最早的中譯本是1925年上海商務印書館《人類的故事》，由沈性仁譯自《The Story of Mankind》；(2)最多中譯出版社及譯者翻譯出版的是《The Story of Mankind》，中譯書名種類最多的是《The Voyages of Doctor Dolittle》；(3)作品的中譯出版社、中譯譯者、中譯書名三種數量高度相關；(4)中譯本與英文本平均出版時間間隔，繁體是17.95年、簡體是27.83年；(5)繁體中譯出版社有72家，主要出版社是智茂、東方。簡體中譯出版社有108家，主要出版社是新蕾、中國少年兒童、河北教育；(6)譯者有438組，主要譯者是趙永芬、鄒嘉容、趙映雪；(7)中譯出版社最青睞小說體裁，不青睞知識文藝及傳說體裁；(8)中譯出版社最青睞動物及現實題材，較不青睞神祇題材。 / The Newbery Award was named for eighteenth-century British bookseller John Newbery. It is awarded annually by the Association for Library Service to Children, a division of the American Library Association, to the author of the most distinguished contribution to American literature for children. Based on bibliometrics, this study explores the genres, subjects and author’s backgrounds of Newbery winners and honor books from 1922 to 2015. The study also collects bibliographic records retrieved mainly from NBINet and CALIS databases for the purpose of investigating overall publishing status of their Chinese translations. The results are summarized as follows. First,with regards to the authors’ backgrounds, it is observed that: (1)Among the 279 authors, those born in USA comprise the largest number. New York is the most common birthplace for these USA born authors. Moreover, female authors account for twice the number of male authors. Furthermore, the average life expectancy for the authors is 78.3 years; (2)The majority of these authors received the award between 30 and 59 years of age; (3)Most of the authors were awarded only once. Meindert DeJong and Laura Ingalls Wilder, having been awarded 5 times, hold the record for the most Newberys won. Second, with regards to the distribution of the genres and themes of these works, it is observed that: (1)In terms of genre, the majority of the works fall under fiction and nonfiction novels, biography and short story; (2)The subject of these works mostly center around history, realism and adventure. Third, regarding the publishing status of these works’ Chinese translations, it is observed that: (1)Chinese translations are available for 54 percent of the works. The first Chinese translation was “Ren Lei De Gu Shi” published by Shanghai Commercial Press in 1925, which was translated from "The Story of Mankind" by Shen Xing-Ren; (2)The works with the largest number of Chinese publishing houses, Chinese translators and Chinese titles are "The Story of Mankind", “The Story of Mankind" and "The Voyages of Doctor Dolittle" respectively; (3)The numbers of Chinese publishing houses, translators and Chinese titles of a book are highly correlated; (4)In terms of the average time interval between the publication of English original works and Chinese translations, it took an average of 17.95 years for a Traditional Chinese translation to be published, while a Simplified Chinese translation usually took 27.83 years; (5)The number of Traditional Chinese publishers is 72, with the major publishers being Wisdom World Publishing and Eastern Publishing Co.. The number of Simplified Chinese publishers is 108; major publishers include New Buds Publishing House, China Children Publishing House and Hebei Education Press; (6)There are 437 group of translators, among which ZhaoYong-Fen, Zou Jia-Rong and Zhao Ying-Xue are the main translators; (7)From the standpoint of genre, Chinese publishing houses prefer to publish translations for fiction and nonfiction novels, while nonfiction depiction of facts and works based on folk legends are less favored; from the perspective of subjects, Chinese publishing houses favor realism and works with animal-related, whereas works based on mythologies receive least attention from publishers.