本論文主在以計量經濟的方法研究廣告費用與市場占有率的關係，廣告的延續效果(c arryover offect)及持續時間(duration interval) 為本文的研究重點。由此而衍伸 出的政策涵意則為本論文的最後目的。由敘述性(descriptive) 的了解事實真象到規 範性(normative) 的理智決策過程，即為本論文的貢獻所在。 論文架構分為下列章節：一、前言：包括研究目的、動機二、相關文獻探討：分為( 一) 事前模式(A Priori Model)( 二) 計量經濟模式(Econometric Model) 三、廣告 研究上的一些計量經濟方法四、汽水產業的實證研究：包括( 一) 模式的建立( 二) 模式的估計(三)模式的檢定，五、政策上的涵意六、建議事項，初步估計約三萬字。

本研究旨在探討1975至2006年間，台灣地區12所大學學術生產力之概況，透過各校被WOS資料庫蒐錄的文獻數量，進一步觀察不同領域中學校、學門，以及個別系所學術生產力的分佈情形，並以書目計量學三大作者學術生產力定律，加以驗證機構學術生產力之可行性，最後利用文獻成長模式檢視12所大學文獻成長情形，進而呈現其研究主題之逐年變遷。 研究結果得知台灣地區學術生產力普遍存在不均現象，多集中於台灣大學；而在自然科學與社會科學領域學術生產力之表現，最多產學門分別為電子與電機工程學門，以及管理學門；研究結果亦顯示合作研究已成為當前學術生產力的主要模式。其次在定律驗證，得知本研究與三大作者學術生產力定律均不相符，究其原因在於高生產力機構數量遠多於低生產力機構，並呈現機構之間學術生產力的極端現象，而與定律不相吻合。最後以文獻成長模式印證台灣地區12所大學整體學術生產力成長情形，可知其融合線性成長、指數成長以及邏輯斯第成長等模式，且目前仍處於蓬勃發展的階段；而近30年來研究主題的變遷，是以電子與電機工程和管理主題為研究主流。 本研究結果在為台灣地區學術生產力提供一個概括呈現，並協助高等教育評鑑對於不同領域及學門的學術生產力概況有一背景瞭解，以作為日後對於不同學科的評鑑參考。 / The main purpose of this study is to explore the scholarly productivity of 12 universities in Taiwan from 1975 to 2006 based on the theoretical perspectives of the bibliometrics, such as productivity of academic discipline, productivity of school, productivity of department, and the growth of literature. The distributions of institution productivity were examined using the Lotka’s, Price and 80/20 Laws. A total of 130018 bibliographic records were retrieved from the SCIE, SSCI, and A&HCI databases. The results of this study revealed that the productivity of institution in Taiwan existed uneven ordinarily, mostly concentrated in National Taiwan University. In scientific field, the most productive academic discipline was Electronics and Electrical Engineering. In social scientific field, the most productive academic discipline was Management. However, the results of this study also showed that coauthorship was major research model. Furthermore, the examination of Lotka’s law was found to be inapplicable. The KS Test is also utilized to test the invalidity of observed distributions. Price’s square root law and 80/20 law were found to be inapplicable to the distribution of institution productivity. The reason was the number of high productivity institutions was more then the number of low productivity institutions. Finally, the growth of literature in 12 universities had been identified. It was demonstrated that the growth of literature was fitted by linear, exponential, and logistic models. Moreover, the overall growth rate is in a vigorously up-growing trend. Nearly 30 years, the mainstream of research was electronics and electrical engineering and management. The results of this study may apply the overview of the scholarly productivity based on 12 universities in Taiwan from 1975 to 2006 and be the background knowledge for evaluation of high education, in order to understand what difference among different academic disciplines.

人類的思考決策與行為結果，大多是依循一個明確的市場制度而為的，故市場經濟制度的重要性，就在於有利個人形成如何有效配置資源的合理預期，同時也富有約束及激勵個人行為的誘因，讓個人能在制度約束的條件下，追求自利動機的極大化。都市空地再利用及市地重劃的法令制度，就具有這樣的經濟效應，所以本研究主要在探討，在空地再利用及市地重劃制度的約束與激勵條件下，都市中的經濟人行為決策與個體互動所形成的空間外部性，其會如何反應在住宅土地價格的變動，以探討空地再利用及空地開發所產生的空間外部性對住宅土地價格之影響。本文主要包括（1）空地再利用對住宅土地價格之影響；（2）空地再利用及鄰里土地開發對新建住宅土地價格之影響；（3）空間外部性、交易成本與市地重劃對新建住宅土地價格之影響等。 首先，有關「空地再利用對住宅土地價格之影響」，本文以Geoghegan（2002）的理論模型為基礎，主要探討空地再利用所產生的開放空間效果，其對於住宅土地價格的影響分析。本文運用地理資訊系統及空間計量分析，並建立民國九十三年及九十四年住宅土地的特徵價格模型，研究對象以台南市為例。實證結果發現，公有空地再利用作為公園及臨時停車場使用，其對於住宅土地價格產生正的空間外溢效果，此表示空地再利用所產生的開放空間的外溢利益，其大於空地管理維護的外溢成本。私有空地再利用作為運動場使用，民國九十三年的外部成本大於外部利益，但於民國九十四年的外部利益大於外部成本，故就私有空地再利用的外溢效果而言，私有空地再利用作為運動場使用的外溢效果可由負向轉為正向。公有空地再利用的邊際價格較私有空地再利用的邊際價格為高，故政府應繼續推動公有空地再利用的政策，以彌補鄰里的開放空間不足。 其次，有關「空地再利用及鄰里土地開發對新建住宅土地價格之影響」，本文主要在探討空地再利用所產生的開放空間效果，及鄰里土地開發所產生的空間外溢效果，兩者對於新建住宅土地價格的影響分析，本研究範圍以台南市民國九十三年的新建住宅為對象。實證結果發現，公有空地再利用對於新建住宅土地價格具有正的空間外溢效果，此表示開放空間的外溢利益大於空地管理維護的外溢成本。鄰里土地開發作為住宅使用時，會對新建住宅土地價格形成正的空間外溢效果，但當鄰里土地開發作為工廠使用時，卻會對新建住宅土地價格形成負的空間外溢效果。最有價值的住宅土地為，開放空間數量最大化及土地開發數量的最小化，故當永久性的開放空間(如鄰里公園)、可開發性的開放空間(如公有空地再利用)數量增加，以及鄰里工廠土地開發數量減少等，其將有助提高新建住宅土地價格。 最後，有關「空間外部性、交易成本與市地重劃對新建住宅土地價格之影響」，本文主要從政府實施市地重劃有助於降低交易成本的觀點，探討政府實施市地重劃制度及建設商的土地開發行為所產生的空間外部性，其反應在新建住宅土地價格的影響。本文運用空間計量分析及地理資訊系統，並結合Box-Cox函數轉換，以建構具有空間外部性的特徵價格模型。本文研究範圍以台南市民國八十年、八十五年及九十年的新建住宅為對象。實證結果得知，空間誤差Box-Cox模型對於空間外部性提供良好的解釋力。政府實施市地重劃之後對住宅土地價格具有正向外部性，且有政府參與的重劃區所反應的住宅土地邊際價格為正向關係。而建設商個體互動關係則具有正向及負向外部性，並在長期下出現由正向轉為負向之情況，此證明空間外部性會呈現相互性的現象，進而反應在新建住宅土地價格上會有增減的作用。 / This study mainly assumes that development of vacant land give rise to spatial externalities from the reuse of vacant land and the institution of land readjustment. Finally, this effect will be reflected in the residential land prices. To test this hypothesis, this study applies spatial econometric and geographic information systems based on hedonic pricing model. This study mainly includes that (1) The Impact of Reusing Vacant Land on Residential Land Prices, ( 2) The Impact of Reusing Vacant Land and Neighboring Land Development on Newly-Built Residential Land Prices, ( 3) The Impact of Spatial Externalities, Transaction Costs and Land Readjustment on Newly-Built Residential Land Prices, and evidence from Tainan City in Taiwan. First of all, about’ The Impact of Reusing Vacant Land on Residential Land Prices’, This study is based on Geoghegan’s theoretical model (2002) and focuses on open space effect of reusing vacant land on residential land prices. The data are selected from residential land prices in 2004, 2005. Empirically, I find that the reuse of publicly-owned vacant land used for green and park has positive spatial spillover effects. This means that spillover benefit of open space is more than spillover cost of vacant land management. The reuse of privately-owned vacant land used for sport has negative spatial spillover effects in 2004. The marginal price of publicly-owned vacant land is over than privately-owned vacant land. It is concluded that, the government should continue promoting the reuse of publicly-owned vacant land and used for open space of the neighborhood. Secondly, about’ The Impact of Reusing Vacant Land and Neighboring Land Development on Newly-Built Residential Land Prices’, This study focuses on open space effect of reusing vacant land and spatial spillover effect of neighboring land development on newly-built residential land prices. The data are selected from newly-built residence in 2004. Empirically, I find that the reuse of publicly-owned vacant land has positive spatial spillover effects on newly-built residential land prices. This means that spillover benefit of open space is more than spillover cost of vacant land management. Land development used for residence has positive spatial spillover effects and used for factory has negative spatial spillover effects in a neighborhood. This means that more the reuse of publicly-owned vacant land will increase newly-built residential land prices, while more land development used for factory will decrease newly-built residential land prices in a neighborhood. Finally, about’ The Impact of Spatial Externalities, Transaction Costs and Land Readjustment on Newly-Built Residential Land Prices’, This Study mainly assumes that land readjustment can reduce transaction costs in terms of the spatial externalities from developers’ behavior and the institution of land readjustment. This effect will be reflected in the newly-built residential land prices. To test this hypothesis, I apply spatial econometric analysis and geographic information systems based on the Box-Cox hedonic pricing model. The data are selected from newly-built residence from between 1991, 1996 and 2001. Empirically, I find that the spatial error Box-Cox model is appropriate for engaging in spatial externalities analysis. This is because the results show that land readjustment gives rise to positive spatial externalities on newly-built residential land prices and the marginal price of residential land in areas where land readjustment takes place is also positive. The effects of developers’ interactions give rise to positive spatial externalities but these change to negative spatial externalities in relation to newly-built residential land prices in the long term. It is concluded that, land readjustment as implemented by the government really does contribute to reducing uncertainty in the land development process, and also reduces transaction costs between construction practitioners and landlords.

本研究旨在應用書目計量學方法分析1900年至2007年間，輸送現象文獻之特性，藉以探討輸送現象之發展情形。研究樣本取自SCIE資料庫，計104854篇相關書目資料。期望本研究結果能提供輸送現象學界與圖書館或資料單位參考，協助其做有效之館藏規劃及期刊資訊服務。 本研究結果歸納如下：(1)輸送現象文獻成長狀況目前呈穩定成長狀態，1965年後之文獻累積成長曲線符合指數成長。(2)輸送現象文獻之主要出版國為美國、英國、荷蘭、瑞士、德國、日本等國。台灣文獻出版量之排名則為第22名。(3)英文為輸送現象文獻最重要之寫作語文，德文、法文、俄文、日文依序於後。(4)輸送現象文獻之出版類型以期刊文章為主，佔總文獻之91.37%。(5)本研究不符合布萊德福定律，但符合布萊德福-齊夫定律曲線，求得之核心期刊有八種，分別為美國及英國所出版。(6)以高被引期刊、影響係數以及被資料庫收錄情況等方式，驗證布萊德福分區法所求之核心期刊品質，發現核心期刊品質值得信任。(7)以洛卡定律最小平方法求得n值為-2.5141(平等法)、-2.5389(第一作者法)，c值為0.7488(平等法)、0.7546(第一作者法)，進一步利用K-S檢定法加以檢定，證明洛卡定律並不適用於本研究。(8)本研究之作者生產力分佈不符合普萊斯平方根定律與80/20定律。(9)印度理工學院為輸送現象文獻重要的生產機構；台灣則為國立成功大學。總生產力台灣排名世界第22。(10)美國、法國、德國、日本、俄羅斯為相關研究機構最多的國家；英國、美國、荷蘭、瑞士則為最具吸收他國研究成果的學術傳播環境。 本研究最後依據研究發現之結果，提出以下建議：(1)本研究之各項研究成果，可作為圖書資訊界館藏發展與管理之參考。(2)輸送現象產業界應加強對於研究的重視。(3)輸送現象相關研究人員，應具備英文、德文、法文、俄文等外語能力。(4)資料庫公司應提升書目資料精確性，以利研究。(5)定期對輸送現象文獻進行分析，有助於輸送現象相關研究人員瞭解該領域之研究發展。 / This study analyzed the characteristics of transport phenomenon literature during 1900-2007 by a bibliometric approach. A total of 104854 bibliographic data were retrieved from SCIE database. The results attempt to have a better understanding of the developments and trends on transport phenomenon reaserch. The results of the present study reveal that: (1) Transport Phenomenon literature increased steadily. The growth curve during 1965-2007 fits exponential growth. (2)USA, UK, Netherlands, Switzerland, Germany and Japan are the major countries of Transport Phenomenon publications. Taiwan ranked 22. (3)English is the most often used language. German ranked number two and the third most often used language is French. (4)Journal article is the major of publication and accounted for 91.37% of total publication. (5)The journal article distribution doesn't fit Bradford Law. However, it fits the typical Bradford-Zipf’s S-shaped curve. (6)Core journals are found to be associated with highly cited times and high impact factor. (7)For only counting first author, Lotka’s law is found to be inapplicable to author productivity distribution with n=-2.5389, c=0.7488. The K-S test also explored the invalidity of observed distribution at 0.01 level of significance. (8) Author productivity distribution also does’t fit Price Square Root Law and 80/20 Rule. (9) Indian Institute of Technology is the most important institute of Transport Phenomenon publications. In Taiwan, National Cheng Kung University published the most Transport Phenomenon literature and it ranked 22. (10)USA, French, Germany, Japan and Russia have the most relevant research institutions than other countries.

在傳統的線性迴歸分析當中，當基本假設不滿足時，有時可考慮變數轉換使得資料能夠比較符合基本假設。在眾多的轉換方法當中，以Box和Cox(1964)所提出的乘冪轉換(Box-Cox power transformation)最為常用，乘冪轉換可將某些複雜的系統轉換成線性常態模式。然而當資料存在離群值(outlier)時，Box-Cox Transformation會受到影響，因此不是一種穩健方法。 在本篇論文當中，我們利用前進演算法(forward search algorithm)求得最小消去平方估計量(Least trimmed squares estimator)，在過程當中估計出穩健的轉換參數。

自Nelson和Plosser (1982)後，研究經濟資料是否具有單位根現象，已成為近二十年來熱門且重要的課題。因 為資料性質的不同(恆定或非恆定)，對實證計量模型的設定、統計推論以及原理論的發展有深遠的影響。與傳 統探討單一時間數列之單位根的論文不同的是，本篇論文將橫斷面的資料擴大，探討混合型資料的單位根現象 ( Panel Unit Root )。就此課題，文獻上已有兩個不同的檢定方法: Levin、Lin和Chu (1997)的LLC檢定法以及Im、 Pesaran和Shin (1995)的IPS檢定法。 我們的研究，有別於以上兩者，是從「概似比」的角度(likelihood ratio) 和應用檢定共積關係的Johansen (1988)「Trace檢定」，建構新的單位根檢定統計量。首先於文中推導出，「Trace檢定」可用於檢測單一時間數 列的單位根現象。進而，再將橫斷面資料擴大，採用mean group方法，加總平均每個橫斷面時間數列的「Trace 檢定」統計量，形成混合型資料之單位根檢定統計量 。根據中央極限定理，標準化後的 檢定統計量，極限上 收斂至標準常態分配。此外，我們也推導得出 檢定統計量與傳統ADF、LLC以及IPS檢定統計量極限上的關係。 最後，我們以「蒙地卡羅」模擬方法，分析小樣本下「型一誤差」與「檢定力」的表現。發現新的混合型資 料之單位根檢定統計量表現優良，近似於標準常態分配。故在做混合型資料的單位根分析時，採用 檢定統計 量，可得到較精確的推論。

近年來由於地理資訊系統（GIS）的快速發展發，空間資料分析開始受到重視並在社會科學領域中逐漸扮演重要的角色。雖然一般的統計方法已在傳統資料分析上發展已久，然而它們卻不能有效地說明空間性資料，並且無法充分處理空間相依或空間異質性問題。一般而言，空間資料分析主要有兩個分派:模型導向學派與資料導向學派。本文研究目的在於應用空間統計方法合理且充分地評估房地產價值，研究方法包含地理統計(克利金和共克利金)、地理加權迴歸與空間特徵價格模型等，並且以台中市不動產資料進行實證探究。這項新的研究技術在不動產評價領域中將可提供更好的解析能力，使其在評價過程中或是不動產投資決策時，成為一個更強而有力的分析工具。 / In recent years, spatial data analysis has received significant awareness and played an important role in social science because of the rapid development of Geographic Information System (GIS). Although classic statistical methods are attractive in traditional data analysis, they cannot be executed seriously for spatial data. Standard statistical techniques didn’t sufficiently deal with spatial dependence or spatial heterogeneity issues. Generally, the model-driven method and the data-driven method are mainly the two branches of the spatial data analysis. The purpose of this paper is to apply spatial statistics methods including geostatistical methods (kriging and cokiging), geographically weighted regression, and spatial hedonic price models to real estate analysis. It seems to be completely reasonable and sufficient. The real estate data in Taichung city (Taiwan) is used to carry out our exploration. These techniques give better insight in the field of real estate assessment. They can apply a good instrument in mass appraisal and decision concerning real estate investment.

競爭風險之下對邊際分配的估計，是許多領域中常遇到的問題。由於主要事件及次要事件互相競爭，只要一種事件先發生即終止對另一事件的觀察，在兩事件同時發生的機率為0之下，連一筆完整的資料我們都無法蒐集到。除非兩事件互為獨立或加上其它條件，否則會有邊際分配無法識別的問題。但是獨立的條件在有些情況下並不合理，為解決相依競爭風險之邊際分配無法識別的問題，可先假定兩事件發生時間之間的關係。 由於關聯結構定義出兩變數間的結合關係，我們可利用關聯結構解釋兩事件發生時間之間的關係。假定兩變數之相關性參數為已知，且採用機率積分轉換的觀念，本論文討論了Zheng 與 Klein提出的關聯結構-圖形估計量，是否會依設限程度、相關性強度和關聯結構形式的不同，以致估計能力有別。 / The problem of estimating marginal distributions in a competing risks study is often met in scientific fields. Because main event and secondary event compete with each other, and a first occurring event prevents us from observing another event promptly, the intact lifetimes or survival times are unable to be collected in the circumstances that the probability of both lifetimes coinciding is 0. Unless lifetimes being independent or adding other conditions, there is a problem that the marginal distributions are non-identifiable. But the condition of independence is not always reasonable, we may assume the relation between lifetimes has some special form Because the copula defines the association between two variables, it can be employed to explain relation between lifetimes. Assuming that the dependence parameter in the copula framework is known, and adopting the concept of the probability integral transformations, this thesis has demonstrated whether the estimating abilities of the copula-graphic estimator, that Zheng and Klein put forward, are different in rates of censoring, intensities of dependence, and forms of the copula.

本研究旨在應用書目計量學方法分析1900年至2013年間，女性研究文獻之特性，藉以探討女性研究之發展情形。研究樣本取自WOS資料庫（包含三個子資料庫SSCI、SCIE和A&HCI），計16,852篇相關書目資料。期望本研究結果能提供女性研究學界與圖書館或資料單位參考，協助其做有效之館藏規劃及期刊資訊服務。 本研究結果歸納如下：(1) 女性研究文獻篇數與年代是成正比的狀況，較符合指數成長模式。進一步以指數迴歸預測成長篇數的話，顯示女性研究文獻有成長減緩的趨勢。(2)女性研究文獻之主要出版國為美國、英國、加拿大、荷蘭、德國等國。 (3)英文為女性研究文獻最重要之寫作語文。(4)女性研究文獻之出版類型以期刊文章為主，佔總文獻之62.86%。(5)女性研究廣泛應用於各學科，主題領域前五名分別為心理學相關、女性研究（狹義）、歷史、文學及教育與教育研究。 (6) 女性研究之文獻分布相當分散，但仍有其核心期刊。(7)本研究符合布萊德福定律，但不符合布萊德福-齊夫定律曲線。(8) 高生產力期刊與高被引期刊的主題明顯分散。 (10) 洛卡定律、普萊斯平方根定律、80/20 定律不適用於本研究。(11) 研究機構的生產力分散，大學校院為主要研究機構，機構下的系所分布以心理學系所最多。(12) 美國與英國為相關研究機構最多的國家，也是延攬他國學術成果的最多的國家。 本研究最後依據研究發現之結果，提出以下建議：(1)本研究之各項研究成果，可作為圖書資訊界館藏發展與管理之參考。(2)女性研究相關研究人員，應具備跨主題領域的合作研究能力且法文、德文、西班牙文等外語能力。(4)資料庫公司應提升書目資料精確性，以利研究。(5)定期對女性研究文獻進行分析，有助於女性研究相關研究人員瞭解該領域之研究發展。 / The purpose of the study is to understand the contents, relations, development, and trends between various disciplines of “women’s studies.” This study analyzes the characteristics of women’s studies literature during 1900-2013 by bibliometric approach, collecting analytical components such as the frequencies of the publication, publication languages, countries of publications, journal sources, cited times, disciplines of subject categories and document type from three major sub-databases of Web of Science services: SCIE, SSCI, and A&HCI. A total of 16,852 bibliographic records were retrieved from the databases. The results of the present study are as follows. (1) The growth pattern of women’s studies literature during 1900-2013 generally fits exponential growth, but the growth has been slowed down since 2011. (2) United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Netherlands and Germany are five major countries of women’s studies publications. (3) English is the most often used language. (4) Journal articles are the major type of women’s studies publications, accounting for 62.86% of total publications. (5) Women’s studies are scattered in multiple disciplines, with five subjects significantly contributing to the literature count: psychology and its related disciplines, women’s studies (in narrow definition), history, literature, and education and educational research. (6) Despite of the scattered distribution of women’s studies literature, core journals of women’s studies still can be identified. (7)The distribution of journal articles fits Bradford Law, but it does not fit the typical Bradford-Zipf’s S-shaped curve. (8) The journal subjects of highly productive journals and highly cited journals vary. (9) Author distribution is counted by single authorship and collaborative authorship; the results show that author distribution neither fits Lotka’s law, Square Root Law or 80/20 Rule. (10) Academic institutions are major producers of women’s studies, with departments in universities and colleges concerning psychology and its related disciplines being the main contributors to the publications. (11) Most productive research institutions are distributed over United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and Turkey. The findings of the study may provide better understanding of the past, current and future of women’s studies, and serve as references to identify more suitable, popular and influential journals and literature for both research purposes and library collection development and management.

科学研究費補助金 研究種目:基盤研究(C)(2) 課題番号:11610113 研究代表者:村上 隆 研究期間:1999-2000年度