授信風險分析是決定授信品質的關鍵。不管是聯合貸款、企業授信或消費性貸款，所有申貸案件必定經過徵信程序(credit analysis)來評估授信風險，再決定是否准予貸放。尤其企業授信一般貸放金額甚高，必須藉著嚴謹的審查過程來分析授信戶的借款用途是否合理、還款來源是否無虞。而這又必須瞭解其財務狀況、產銷情形、產業前景、研發創新、營運模式、經營者專業素養、管理能力等構面來分析風險成分。 傳統授信風險分析方法、理論，如五P分析、產業分析、財務分析等已行之多年，亦是國內商業銀行最普遍採用。然而隨著統計學、計量工具的發展，各種衡量信用風險的模型model被架構推出，世界知名銀行亦投注人力物力發展計量分析為主的風險管理部門，建立授信風險量化指標。除消費金融業務已藉著評分(credit scoring)作為准駁依據外，企業授信則因basel II即將公佈實施，亦使銀行業近幾年亦積極投入發展計量模型以建立IRB。然而計量分析與專家分析目前在國內銀行並未結合。我們將在文中探討主要授信分析工具並以89-92年間發生下市及打入全額交割股事件之公司為選樣範圍作為倒帳率分析基礎。

本研究將財務危機分為『經營不善型財務危機』以及『舞弊型財務危機』兩種類型，運用離散時間涉險方法，探討何種公司治理與財務資訊最有可能發生舞弊型的財務危機。同時本研究也探討財務危機對負債比率的敏感性如何受到公司治理中介變數的影響。 實證結果發現當公司治理機制情形不好，但財務報表資訊良好時，發生舞弊型財務危機的可能性將大於經營不善型的財務危機。而財務危機對負債比率的敏感度會受到公司治理中介變數的影響。 / With financial distress being classified as operating-failure financial distress and fraud financial distress, this study employs discrete-time survival model to characterize the fraud financial distress by corporate governance and financial performance. It also investigates the moderate effect of corporate governance on the sensitivity of financial distress to debt ratio. The empirical results indicate that companies with weak corporate governance and good financial performance are more likely to encounter fraud financial distress than operating-failure financial distress. In addition, corporate governance positively moderates the sensitivity of financial distress to debt ratio.

全球化下，企業之競爭日益激烈且為了整合資源與拓展新市場，全球跨國購併案件逐漸增加。全球跨國購併案件增加的同時，也彰顯了財務顧問在跨國購併案件中扮演之角色與價值。財務顧問之職責主要為客戶降低各方面之成本，以及為客戶談妥好議價、購併後帶來綜效。本研究主要從財務顧問之角度出發，探討不同特性財務顧問之價值以及聚焦在跨國購併案件。跨國購併案件較複雜，更能彰顯財務顧問在跨國購併案件中之價值與效應。 本研究主要從兩個角度探討不同特性之財務顧問，分別為精品（Boutique）之財務顧問以及過去績效好之財務顧問，探究兩者在跨國購併案件中能為主併公司帶來多少價值。更進一步探究，在不同且複雜之交易特性下，不同特性之財務顧問在跨國購併案件中能為主併公司帶來何價值。 本研究之結果發現，精品（Boutique）財務顧問與過去三年績效佳之財務顧問，兩者皆能為主併公司帶來顯著的正向效應。且在跨國購併案件中，若被併公司屬於未上市公司，兩種特性之財務顧問皆能為主併公司帶來顯著之正效果。進一步發現，精品（Boutique）且過去三年績效佳之財務顧問，能為主併公司帶來較大之價值。在跨國購併案件中，不僅在被併公司為未上市時帶來顯著之正效應外，且在交易特性為非現金支付的情況下，也能為主併公司帶來顯著之正向價值。 / This study examines the value of financial advisors for acquirers in cross-border M&As and the impacts of deal outcomes. Two hypotheses are tested in the study:“Boutique” financial advisors create much more values for acquirers in cross-border M&As. The other one is financial advisors whose prior client performances were good, create much more values for acquirers in cross-border M&As. The study finds that“Boutique” financial advisors and financial advisors whose prior client performances were good both can create positive value for acquirers in cross-border M&As. Moreover, both can deal with complex transactions. While the target are private firms, both can create positive value for acquirers in cross-border M&A. In conclusion, the“Boutique” financial advisors whose prior clients performances were good create much more values for acquirers in cross-border M&As, and it can deal with more complex transactions.

本研究主要係探討財務比率資訊對外國專業投資機構投資決策之資訊內涵。主要實證議題包括：（一）探討不同產業下，影響外資投資策略之重要財務屬性為何？（二）前述財務屬性與外資持股變動之關係；及（三）財務比率資訊對外資持股變動之解釋能力是否因產業別之不同而有所差異？ 本研究以民國84年至88年間之台灣上市電子業、紡織業、塑膠業、食品業公司為樣本，首先運用因素分析將十八項財務比率萃取出獲利能力、償債能力、經營能力、帳款變現性及財務結構等五個不同構面的財務屬性，並加入公司規模、本益比及產業加權指數變動作為控制變數，以迴歸模式進行產業別分析。 實證研究結果發現，就整體而言，獲利能力為外資持股最具決策攸關性之財務屬性。就個別財務因素觀之，獲利能力、經營能力、帳款變現性及財務結構屬性均符合本研究假說預期與外資平均持股比例呈正向關係。償債能力屬性在電子業、紡織業及食品業均與預期相符呈正相關，僅在塑膠業與外資持股呈現負相關，與預期假說相違。由於負債比對償債能力屬性之影響為負向，故負相關之研究結果表示負債比相較於其他財務比率對塑膠產業樣本公司之償債能力屬性具更明顯的影響力。如併考量塑膠業之流動比及速動比均較其他產業為高之情形，此發現可能意謂，外資基於塑膠業之產業特性，並不希望塑膠業公司積壓過多資源而導致喪失投資獲利的機會。 此外，實證結果亦顯示，迴歸模式之解釋力在不同產業下確實存在產業之差異性，故產業性質對財務比率分析具有重要影響力。 / By examining whether the detailed financial ratios are informative about subsequent changes in Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors’(QFII) shareholdings, this thesis investigates the usefulness of accounting fundamental signals in the QFII investment decisions. Using a sample of firms listed in Taiwan Stock Exchange from electronics, textile, plastic and food industries over the period of 1995 to 1999, this thesis explores three empirical issues: (1) What are the important financial attributes for QFII’s investment decisions, measured in terms of changes in QFII shareholdings of specific companies? (2) The relationship between the shareholding change and the financial attributes. And (3) Would such relationship differentiate across industries? Based upon a factor analysis approach, this thesis first extracts 18 financial ratios into five dimensions of financial attributes: profitability, operating management, account receivable turnover, liquidity, and financial structure. By incorporating these five financial attributes with company size, price-earning ratio and industrial stock price index into a multiple regression, the relationship between financial attributes and QFII shareholdings is then investigated. The empirical findings indicate that profitability is the most relevant factor that affects the QFII shareholdings. The evidence also shows that consistent with the hypothesis, profitability, operating management, accounts receivable turnover, and financial structure are significantly and positively associated with QFII shareholdings for all industries related. With the exception of the plastic industry, liquidity is negatively related to QFII shareholdings. There is cross-industry difference in explanatory power of regression models used. This result might thus imply that industry factor plays a role in the usefulness of financial ratio analysis.

本研究主要是選取在亞洲金融風暴期間，在台灣上市公司發生財務危機的30家公司，搭配30家同產業相近資產的正常公司，依發生財務危機的原因將其分類為四個樣本，分別為（1）本業不佳（2）過度投資（3）子公司護盤（4）經營層掏空資產；分析以分類樣本建立的財務危機預警模型，在正確區別力與成本的表現上是否較於未分類的財務危機預警模型來的好，實證結果顯示，以分類樣本建立的預警模型，其正確區別力較未分類預警模型來的高，而成本較未分類樣本來的低，因此，以分類樣本建構預警模型有其正面的意義，投資及融資機構可依分類樣本建構財務危機預警模型，以做為投資及融資的依據；同時，將各分類樣本分別做財務危機公司與正常公司的單變量Ｆ檢定，發現在各分類中Ｆ值皆為顯著的財務比率有四(1)現金流量允當比率、(2)業外收支率、(3)每股盈餘及(4)借款依存度。

全球經濟環境變遷與區域性經濟聯盟的影響下，台灣由過去自產外銷產品的模式，轉而將生產線移往區位條件較佳的國家，以因應複雜多變的產業環境。我國出口貿易持續呈現以科技產業的相關產出佔出口主要部份;科技產業乃為高資本且變化快速的產業，對於企業財務穩健運作及健全管理機制受到高階管理者重視。為達到企業營運績效，培養優秀具遠見之財務人員為現代科技產業集團新生目標，卓越之財務長更是企業永續成長的關鍵因素。 依據本研究結果發現，現今財務人員所應具備專業技能除傳統財務與會計技能;在實務上，軟性技能與個人特質更影響個人與組織績效表現差異。廣泛市場與文化知識、策略規劃與組織能力、良善的溝通協調能力和團隊合作、談判技巧、對於緊急情況的應變能力均成為企業任用選派財務人員基準。而在養成、訓練機制上，國內企業人事管理單位提供財務訓練制度所能帶來成效抱持保守態度。原因大致來自於無法快速適時修正訓練項目服膺金融環境，以及擔心佔用工作時間及主觀性印象促成。相較於中小型企業，大型企業集團擁有完整的企業大學與訓練體制;但與國外相同產業企業比較，明顯對於高階財務人員無相關養成機制，企業高階主管更不涉及內部專業人員訓練課程，使得實際訓練成效停滯於某一管理層級。專任財務長只仰賴由其他企業挖角產生，而非由內部培養而成，遠不及國外企業系統化的財務人員養成結構。 綜觀我國科技產業財務人員訓練機制，雖尚不及外國企業相關規範;但可窺見其逐漸建立相關體制。專業財務人員技能論之，其策略參與、維繫投資人關係、募資籌資方式優劣分析等嶄新技術專業，和結合軟性技能、個人特質的多元多樣能力，使得科技產業財務人員脫離舊有財會人員範疇，以整合型財務專業人員目標邁進。我國科技產業對於財務人員訓練，應適當修正相關機制因應市場環境，建立完整一連串的財務人員養成機制，取得企業專有高階專業的財務人員，為企業在多變競爭環境中注入成功因素。 / Impact of the global economic and environmental trends and under the regional economic union's influence, Taiwan’s economic model from produced for sale abroad product in the past, has transferred and moved the production line toward the better position condition countries, in accordance to complicated and diversified industrial environment. Our country export trade continues to present delivers by tech industry related occupies the export main part; the tech industry is the more capital and fast changing industry, and it receives the higher order superintendent regarding the business finance steady operation and the perfect management mechanism. In order to achieve the enterprise business targets, training of outstanding, foresight for the financial professionals is the modern tech industry groups’ newborn goal, remarkable financial officer is the key aspect that the enterprise continues forever to grow. Discovered based on this study that nowadays the professional skills required for financial professionals, without the traditional finance and accountant the skill, in the practice, the soft skill and individual special characteristic will make the difference performance for individual and the organization achievements. The widespread market and the cultural knowledge, the strategy plan and the organizing faculty, good communication coordinated ability and the team cooperation, the negotiations skill, becomes the enterprise regarding emergency case's strain capacity to assign details the financial professional’s datum. But in the fosters, education and training mechanism, the domestic enterprise human resource management department provides the financial training system is hard to be able to bring the good result. The reason comes from approximately in is unable at the right moment to revise the training project fast to obey the financial environment, as well as worried that takes the operating time and the subjective impression facilitates. Compares to the small and medium-sized enterprise, the large enterprise group with has the complete enterprise university and the training system, however, compares with the overseas same industrial enterprise, not is obviously related regarding the higher order financial professionals fosters mechanism, the enterprise higher management staff does not involve the internal specialists training program, causes the practical training result to stagnate at a management level only. Specially appointed financial director, normally admires by take from other enterprises through offering them a higher pay package, but not from the internal raise, the far inferior to overseas enterprise systematization's financial professionals foster system. Finally, Taiwan’s tech industry financial professionals foster mechanism, although was not good as oversea enterprises related standard, but may sneak a peek at it to establish the related system gradually. For the specialized financial professional skills, its strategy participation, maintains the relationship with investors, to solicit the capital fund raising way fit and unfit quality analysis and so on brand-new technical specialty, and combined with soft skill, individual special characteristic's multi-dimensional diverse ability, causes the tech industry financial professionals to be separated from the old finance and accounting personnel category, makes great strides forward by the conformity finance specialists goal. Our country tech industry fosters regarding the financial professional, still should revise the related mechanism suitably in accordance to the market environment, establishes the complete a succession of financial professional foster mechanism to obtains the enterprise appropriation higher order specialized financial professionals, add the successful factor for the enterprise in the changeable environment of competition.

本財務預警模型研究延續Shumway(2001)年所提出的離散型風險模型(Discrete-time Hazard Model)架構，即Shumway 所稱之多期邏輯斯迴歸模型(Multiperiod logistic regression model) ，來建立銀行財務預警模型。不同於Shumway所提出的Log 基期風險式，研究者根據實際財務危機發生機率圖提出Quadratic 基期風險式。由於離散型風險模型考量與時間相依共變量(Time-dependent covariate)，該模型可以納入隨時間變動的的市場與總體變數，這是單期模型無法達到的。實證結果顯示，不論是否有加入總體與市場變數，Quadratic 基期風險式離散型模型在樣本內檢測表現都比單期模型與Log 基期風險式離散型模型好，研究亦顯示樣本外的預測Quadratic基期風險式在大多數情況都優於Log 基期風險式與單期模型 / This paper continues Shumway(2001) studies on discrete time hazard model, the so called multi-period logistic regression model, to develop a bank failure early warning model . Different from log baseline hazard form proposed by Shumway, author present quadratic baseline hazard form based on the pattern of real default rate. By incorporating time-varying covariates, our model enables us to utilize macroeconomic and market variables, which cannot be incorporated into in a one-period model. We find that our model significantly outperforms the single period logit model and Log baseline hazard model with and without the macroeconomic and market variables at in-sample estimation. The improvement in accuracy comes both from the time-series bank-specific variables and from the time-series macroeconomic variables. Our research also shows that quadratic baseline hazard model outperforms Log baseline hazard model and single period logit model in out-of-sample prediction.

財務危機模型的研究一般納入財務正常公司與財務危機公司兩者當樣本，探討區分危機與正常公司的因素，本研究則進一步以財務危機公司為樣本，探討在財務危機公司中區分舞弊公司與正常經營公司的基本因素。 本研究從財務危機公司中，分出財務舞弊公司與正常經營公司，因此研究樣本包含發生舞弊的財務危機公司與正常經營而發生財務危機的公司。研究變數則從文獻篩選23個財務解釋變數，以及13個公司治理解釋變數，運用羅吉斯迴歸法進行實證，結果顯示3個財務變數和1個公司治理變數在區分財務危機公司中的財務舞弊公司與正常經營公司有顯著的區別能力，公司治理變數的董監事持股比率尤其顯著。 / Financial distress prediction is usually based on both financial distressed firms and non-distressed firms. Based on financial distressed firms, this study further investigates the factors distinguishing financial fraud firms from non-fraud firms. The sample includes fraud and no-fraud firms while both are financial distressed. Twenty-three financial and thirteen corporate governance variables are surveyed from literature. The empirical result of logit regression shows that three financial variables and one corporate governance variable are significant factors in distinguishing fraud from no-fraud firms in distressed companies. Especially, the percentage of holding stocks of board of directors is the most significant variable.

本研究針對國內1996至2003年68筆受證期局強制重編財報事件為研究對象，採個案與實證兼具之研究方法，探討財報強制重編之成因、外顯徵兆與經濟後果。 就財報強制重編之成因而言，本研究發現盈餘管理誘因亦適用於財報強制重編之情形；公司治理機制中控制權與所有權偏離程度的縮小、外部審計品質的提升與關係人交易之透明與簡單化，皆可以降低財報強制重編之機率。就財報強制重編之外顯徵兆，則發現會計師出具無保留以外之意見與損益品質的下降，為公司錯誤報導財務報表之重要指標。就財報強制重編之經濟後果，實證顯示財報強制重編與財務困難間具有顯著的關聯性。此外，本研究並發現財報重編影響的報表數愈多、金額幅度愈大、涉及業外非核心盈餘與投資損益之重編時，公司發生財務困難的可能性將顯著增加。 / This research employs both case study and empirical approaches to investigate the causes, demeanors and economic consequences of a sample of firms that were enforced by the Securities and future Bureau to restate their financial statements over the period of year 1996 to year 2003. The analysis of the causes of mandatory restatements shows that the motivations of earnings management also apply to the context of financial restatements. The firms with smaller deviation of control rights from the cash flow rights, higher audit quality and more transparency in related-party transactions help alleviate the probability of restatements. The results also indicate that unclean audit opinions and decrease in quality of earnings are important demeanors of misstatement of financial statements. In addition, firms are enforced to restate their financial statements are found to be significantly related to the occurrence of financial difficulties in the future. The findings show that the severer the materiality of the restatement in terms of the length of period, dollars, and the nature of the restatements, the higher the possibility of firms will experience financial difficulties.

由於各國地雷股事件層出不窮，致使投資人財富遭受巨大損失，若是能事先察覺地雷股的存在，便能使投資人財富有更大的保障。本研究以四家國內外大型的舞弊個案－安隆、世界通訊、博達、力霸作為研究樣本，透過四家公司之財務資訊深入剖析各個案公司之舞弊手法。本研究歸納整理出21個預警指標，以作為未來投資人的評估基礎，以發現危機的早期徵兆，能及早避開地雷股。 研究發現即便是有進行窗飾財務報表的財務危機公司，仍能透過財務報導資訊中發現其端倪，四家個案公司在獲利性指標、流動性指標、安全性指標都有出現至少一項的紅旗警訊。研究結果顯示在下列指標上有較多家公司同時符合：(1) 獲利性指標。當資產報酬率以及股東權益報酬率過低或逐年下滑；(2)流動性指標。現金流量比率過低或逐年下滑；(3)安全性指標。借款依存度過高或逐年增加，以及流動比率過低或逐年下滑。 / Does financial reporting information itself provide early insightful information in detecting financial distress? Window dressing in financial reporting casts doubtful questions on this issue. As with investors usually taking a look at individual firm’s financial reporting, this study utilizes case study with four cases to address this fundamental role of financial reporting. Among the four fraud cases investigated, two are from the United States and the other two are Taiwan companies, including Enron, WorldCom, Procomp, and Rebar. This study sorts out 21 warning indices to evaluate each company’s financial condition and find out the signals for financial distress. All of these four cases investigated have at least one red flag signaled in profitability, liquidity and leverage. The most prominent indices in these three dimensions include (1) Profitability---ROE or ROA decreases in trend annully, (2) Liquidity---low cash flow ratio or decreasing in trend annually and low current ratio or decreasing in trend annually, and (3) Leverage---high debt to equity ratio or increasing in trend annually.