本論文主要是應用過去探討盈餘反應係數（ERC）的研究模型，驗證公司與分析師預測值間正負預測誤差的方向性與幅度對於市場反應之影響；並且在公司持續一致存在正/負向誤差的情況之下，探討市場對於此種趨勢的反應，並進一步以實證結果分析影響經理人員進行盈餘管理的可能原因。主要的研究問題有三： (1)當公司超出分析師預測時，市場獎勵公司的程度，是否更甚於當公司未達分析師預測時，市場懲罰公司的程度? (2)在控制未預期盈餘（unexpected earnings）的幅度之下，當公司超出分析師預測時，市場獎勵公司的程度，是否更甚於當公司未達分析師預測時，市場懲罰公司的程度? (3)當公司存在持續一致報導正/負向預測誤差趨勢的情況下，市場對於公司的此種趨勢給與的獎勵或懲罰的性質及程度為何? 本研究係以在台灣證券市場上市公司為研究對象，研究期間為民國77年至民國90年共計14年。研究方法分別使用Pooled regression與Annual regression兩種迴歸模式分別對樣本觀察值進行複迴歸。共計三個迴歸模型，六個迴歸結果。 本研究結果如下： 一、在是否超過分析師預測方面，當公司超過分析師預測時所得到的市場獎勵程度，並不一定大於當公司未能達到分析師預測時所得到市場懲罰的程度。因此就此部分之結論而言，公司為了得到市場獎勵而從事盈餘管理與公司為了逃避市場懲罰因素而從事盈餘管理，兩種行為之動機程度並無明顯差別。 二、倘若在控制未預期盈餘的幅度的情況之下，當公司超過分析師預測時所得到的市場獎勵程度，則是顯著的大於當公司未能達到分析師預測時所得到市場懲罰的程度。因此就本研究此部分之結論而言，公司為了得到市場獎勵的盈餘管理動機程度甚於避免受到市場懲罰之盈餘管理動機程度。 三、在是否存在持續一致報導正/負向預測誤差趨勢方面，可區分為兩部分說明： （1）對於有持續一致未達分析師預測趨勢的公司而言： 持續一致未達的未預期盈餘部分（系統因子），市場會對該系統化部分之行為失去信心而給予其懲罰。 然而，非一致性未達的未預期盈餘部分（非系統因子），相較於其他沒有持續一致未達分析師預測趨勢之公司，市場則不一定會對該部分之行為失去信心而給予其超額懲罰。意即因非系統未達之部分所得到的市場懲罰，並不一定大於沒有持續一致未達分析師預測趨勢之公司。 （2）對於有持續一致超出分析師預測之趨勢的公司而言： 持續一致超出的未預期盈餘部分（系統因子），市場不一定會將該系統化部分之行為視為經理人員從事盈餘管理之結果而給予懲罰。 然而，非一致性超出的未預期盈餘部分（非系統因子），相較於其他未能持續一致超出分析師預測之公司，市場則亦不一定予以實質肯定並給予其超額獎勵。意即因非系統超出之部分所得到的市場獎勵，並不一定大於未能持續一致超出分析師預測的公司。 / This study investigates whether the market rewards（penalizes）firms for beating（missing）analysts’ earnings forecasts. Specifically, we examine the market response to positive and negative forecast errors. In addition, we examine whether the sensitivity of stock prices to positive or negative forecast errors is affected by the firms’ history of consistently beating or missing analysts’ forecasts. In this paper, we provide empirical evidence on three issues: (1) is there a differential market response to the level of unexpected earnings for firms that beat analysts’ forecasts versus those that do not? (2) does the market respond to whether firms beat or miss analysts’ forecasts independent of the magnitude of the forecast error? (3) whether the market gives rewards or penalties for firms with a historical tendency to report positive / negative forecast errors? The results indicate that the earnings multiple applied to positive unexpected earnings is not significantly greater than for negative unexpected earnings. However, we find that after controlling for the magnitude of the forecast error, the market penalty for missing forecasts is significantly greater in absolute terms than the response to beating forecasts. Finally we find that for the firms that consistently beat analysts’ forecasts, the market doesn’t give penalties to the systematic component of the forecast error, and doesn’t give excess rewards to the unsystematic component. But for the firms that consistently miss analysts’ forecasts, the market gives penalties to the systematic component of the forecast error, and doesn’t give excess penalties to the unsystematic component.

隨著台灣產業投入於技術的研發資源增加，近幾年台灣於美國專利商標局（USPTO）獲得之專利數也呈正比例上升；然而投入研發資源之「量」的增加以及獲得的專利數上升，並不代表研發成果「質」的等比例提升。這一點可從台灣企業及政府研發單位所獲得的專利，其國際專利引證率遠低於平均值，可見一般。 究其原因，一部分的問題在於台灣的企業（及政府研發單位）於最開始各相關資訊的搜集上不夠完全以及沒有一套良好的開發評估程序供其依循，這使得研發方向及標的的確立上有所偏差，而導致研發結果與商業需求有落差。 基於上述背景及動機之下，本研究的重點在於確立一套資訊收集及分析評估流程，以幫助台灣的企業（及政府研發單位）有效降低研發成本、提升研發方向的正確性，更進一步做為其決定研發策略的參考依據。 本研究之目的，即在於以產業分析、技術分析、專利地圖分析三個具邏輯順序性的外部分析為主軸，並結合組織本身核心技術、網絡關係等與組織相關之分析，來對組織的未來研發標的作一評估及策略建議。 本研究最後得到了以下的發現： 1. 市場□技術□專利之研發評估程序具有分析邏輯性。 2. 「市場需求研究」所找到的產品「需求功效」，可推導出達成功效可能的技術，並可藉此確立出專利分析時需要的「技術項目」。 3. 「市場需求」研究所找到的產品「需求功效」，可推導出達成「功效」所需要的「技術項目」，再以此去進行專利地圖的「技術/功效」二維關聯矩陣分析時，技術軸面項目與功效軸面項目兩者因具有因果性，故其相交關聯性極易判斷，也很容易明確定義出哪一個技術/功效相交關聯洞是有意義的、是可實際進行研發的。 4. 以產業市場□技術□專利三程序所完成的的「技術/功效」二維關聯矩陣圖，雖可容易的定義出哪一個技術/功效相交關聯洞是有意義的、是可實際進行研發的，但「哪一個可實際進行研發的技術/功效相交關聯洞具有較高關鍵性、重要性及有較高開發價值？」仍需藉由對技術及產業價值鍊熟悉的專家意見才可做出判斷。 5. 此方式組成的技術/功效二維關聯矩陣不但可看到目前已知的技術/功效相關聯部份（如本研究中的主要關鍵技術與主要關鍵功效相交處）專利佈局狀況，也可看出在未來的技術/功效相聯部份（如本研究中的主要輔助關鍵技術與輔助關鍵功效相交處）專利可能發展方向。 6. 產業市場分析、技術分析、專利地圖分析等三個組織外部分析須再配合組織原有的核心技術與網絡關係的評估，才可正確制定出組織未來研發的路徑及作為。 / Along with the enterprise and government investment increasing to the technical research ＆ development（R＆D） resources, Taiwan obtains the US patent number also to present the proportional rise in recent years; however, the investment of research ＆ development resources and the granted patent number are not proportional to the quality of research ＆ development achievement. This can be proved by the lower patent citation rate of Taiwan enterprises and the government research ＆ development institutes than the international mean value. Investigates its reasons, part of questions is that most of the enterprises (and government research ＆ development institutes) do not collect enough market information and do not have a set of good research ＆ development assessment procedure while the beginning of R＆D project in Taiwan. This causes that the research and development direction and target has a deviation, and causes that the research and development result and the commercial demand have the dropping variance. Based on the above background and the motive, this research key point lies in establish a flow of information collections and the analysis appraisal. It also helps Taiwan’s enterprises and government’s R＆D institutes effectively reduce the research and development cost, and promote research and development direction accuracy, further help for making the decision of research and development strategies. The goal of this research, namely lies in take the industrial analysis, the technical forecast, the patent map study three logic order exterior analysis as a main axle, and combine itself core technology and the network relations of organization to suggest organization's future target of research ＆ development. By this research, we discover 1. The R＆D appraisals procedure of market-technology-patent has analysis logic. 2. The marketing research finds the demands of consumers, and the demands of consumers may infer to the functions of products, and the functions of products may infer to the possible technology sources. 3. The possible technology sources may form the technical items of patent analysis matrix, and the functions of products may form the functional items of patent analysis matrix. 4. The two-dimensional technical/functional patent matrix completed by the market-technology-patent three procedures can easily define which technical/functional intersectional connection hole can be affiliated; however, to judge which technical/functional intersectional connection hole is more important still needs the advice of experts familiar to the technology and the industrial value chain. 5. The three organization exterior analyses of market analysis, technical analysis and patent map study have to coordinate the organization original core technology and the network relations appraisal.

由於電腦革命的成功，在短暫的幾年之間，更加速了經濟的成長，而金融的投資分析，是社會經濟發展的原動力，因此研究這方向的財務數學也相對的提高了專家、學者的研究熱潮。就以股票、匯率市場來說，如果能比别人早一步掌握行情走勢，就能獲得較高的利潤。但影響股價、匯率波動的因素很多，尤其是在複雜多變及不確定性的資訊下。因此；如何進行更精確的趨勢分析與預測，是本文研究的主題。由於，傳統的期望值是二元的邏輯思考(非1即0)，比較無法符合多變與不確定的財金問題，因此本文考慮以模糊統計方法，以模糊期望值的方法來作趨勢分析與預測，期望能對複雜多變的財金體系提共一套更精確合理的投資分析方法，可以提供投資者更多的訊息，做出明確的抉擇。最後；以我國集中市場加權股票指數、台幣對美元匯率及台積電股價為例，做一實例上的詳細探討。 / Based on computer revolutionary coming off, economics grows fast in previous several years, then the investment analyze of finance is the impetus of development of society economic. Therefore, many experts and scholars are interested in the research of financial mathematics. Taking stock market and exchange market for example, if you can predict the future trend of market, you obtain more profit. However, there are many factors that act on stock prices and exchange rate. Especially, the market information is complicated and incomplete. How to go along accurate trend analysis and divination is the important point of the text research. Because traditional expectation value is dibasic logic thought (either 1 or 0), that can’t conform to the highly changeable and uncertain finance problems. For this reason, in this research we propose an integrated procedure for fuzzy expectation value modeling and forecasting through fuzzy relation equations. We apply this technique to construct a fuzzy expectation value model for Taiwan Weighted Stock Index and exchange rate and forecast future trend. We strongly believe that this model will be profound of meaning in forecasting future trend of financial market.

股價的漲跌變化是由於證券市場中眾多不同投資人及其投資決策後所產生的結果。然而，影響股價變動的因素眾多且複雜，新聞也屬於其中一種，新聞事件不但是投資人用來得知該股票上市公司的相關營運資訊的主要媒介，同時也是影響投資人決定或變更其股票投資策略的主要因素之一。本研究提出以新聞文件做為股價漲跌預測系統的基礎架構，透過文字探勘技術及分類技術來建置出能預測當日個股收盤股價漲跌趨勢之系統。 本研究共提出三種分類模型，分別是簡易貝氏模型、k最近鄰居模型以及混合模型，並設計了三組實驗，分別是分類器效能的比較、新聞樣本資料深度的比較、以及新聞樣本資料廣度的比較來檢驗系統的預測效能。實驗結果顯示，本研究所提出的分類模型可以有效改善相關研究中整體正確率高但各個類別的預測效能卻差異甚大的情況。而對於影響投資人獲利與否的關鍵類別"漲"及類別"跌"的平均預測效能上，本研究所提出的這三種分類模型亦同時具有良好的成效，可以做為投資人進行投資決策時的有效參考依據。 / Stocks' closing price levels can provide hints about investors' aggregate demands and aggregate supplies in the stock trading markets. If the level of a stock's closing price is higher than its previous closing price, it indicates that the aggregate demand is stronger than the aggregate supply in this trading day. Otherwise, the aggregate demand is weaker than the aggregate supply. It would be profitable if we can predict the individual stock's closing price level. For example, in case that one stock's current price is lower than its previous closing price. We can do the proper strategies(buy or sell) to gain profit if we can predict the stock's closing price level correctly in advance. In this thesis, we propose and evaluate three models for predicting individual stock's closing price in the Taiwan stock market. These models include a naïve Bayes model, a k-nearest neighbors model, and a hybrid model. Experimental results show the proposed methods perform better than the NewsCATS system for the "UP" and "DOWN" categories.

過去研究指出，公司管理當局可藉由即時揭露更多攸關資訊以降低市場之資訊不對稱，而管理當局所發布之財務預測亦為揭露資訊之一種。我國證管會於民國八十年五月起正式實施強制性財務預測制度，影響資本市場甚鉅。本研究旨在探討管理當局所發布之財務預測對資本市場資訊不對稱之影響，進而推論我國強制性財務預測制度對於降低資本市場之資訊不對稱是否有其功效。 本研究採用股票交易量、股價變異性及市場深度作為資訊不對稱之代理變數，實證結果顯示： 1.在強制性財務預測制度實施前，自願發布財務預測之公司於預測發布後，其資訊不對稱顯著較預測發布前降低；然與未發布財務預測公司相較之結果卻顯示，以股票交易量為資訊不對稱之代理變數時，發布財測公司於預測發布後之資訊不對稱反而顯著較未發布財測者為高。 2.在強制性財務預測制度實施後，強制或自願發布財務預測之公司於預測發布後，其資訊不對稱程度仍顯著較其發布前降低；而以股價變異性為資訊不對稱代理變數之結果亦顯示，發布財測公司於預測發布後之資訊不對稱顯著較未發布公司為低。 3.以市場深度為資訊不對稱代理變數之結果顯示，在強制性財務預測制度實施後，發布強制性財務預測之公司，其資訊不對稱於預測發布後顯著降低；此外，與發布自願性財務預測公司相較之結果顯示，發布強制性財測公司於預測發布後，其資訊不對稱程度不顯著高於發布自願性財務預測者。 / A firm can increase levels of disclosure to lower the information asymmetry. Financial forecast released by managers is also one of information about corporation. Our country began to implement the mandatory financial forecast regulations since May, 1991. This study mainly investigates the association between financial forecast released by companies and the mandatory financial forecast regulations. Furthermore , it also investigates that if the regulations effectively mitigate information asymmetry. This study uses trading volume, price volatility, and market depth as proxies for the information asymmetry. The empirical results show that: 1.Before May, 1991, corporations with voluntary forecast significantly mitigated the information asymmetry after the forecast released. But the information asymmetry (use trading volume as a proxy) of corporations after forecast released was not significantly lower than corporations without forecast. 2.After May, 1991, corporations with mandatory or voluntary forecast also significantly mitigated the information asymmetry after the forecast released. And the information asymmetry (use price volatility as a proxy) of corporations after forecast released was significantly lower than corporations without forecast. 3.After May, 1991, corporations with mandatory forecast significantly mitigated the information asymmetry (use market depth as a proxy) after the forecast released. And the information asymmetry of corporations after mandatory forecast released was not significantly higher than corporations with voluntary forecast.

協同規劃、預測與補貨﹙Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment; CPFR﹚是協同商務中的一個應用實務，主要強調供應鏈上買賣雙方協同合作流程的概念，以提升供應鏈上流程的處理效率。未來企業的競爭將是產品背後整體供應鏈的激烈競爭，能對於不斷變化的市場需求作出有效預測，進而快速反應的企業將脫穎而出。對於庫存與補貨的掌控能力更將是企業決勝的關鍵因素之一。 CPFR 中的補貨模型是根據銷售預測、訂單預測、存貨策略與供給面資訊來做實際訂單，以作為補貨之用。補貨模式的準確性可以使賣方針對不同的需求來有效分配未來訂單預測的需求量，並降低安全庫存；買方則可根據訂單預測來調整庫存策略與採購數量。 現今廣用的供應商管理存貨（Vendor Managed Inventory, VMI）並沒有像CPFR加入更多的協同項目與精神，因此比較VMI與CPFR的補貨流程的差異性與優劣性，進而提供企業導入CPFR的補貨流程是相當重要的。 本研究以補貨階段為主題，除了探討協同補貨模式所需具備的屬性與輸入變數外，更將建構一個整合供應鏈上、下游協同資訊與符合協同訂單預測特性之預測模型，以提升補貨準確度，進而堆砌出整個CPFR 協同補貨模式，並加以與現今企業廣為採用的供應商管理存貨（Vendor Managed Inventory, VMI）的補貨模式進行比較，證明CPFR優於VMI，進而可供欲導入CPFR 流程下協同補貨模式或一般補貨模式的相關人員之參考。 / CPFR (Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment) is one of the applications of collaborative business. The stressed concept is the cooperation process of sellers and buyers on the supply chain in order to increase the handling efficiency. In the future, the industries would compete on the whole supply chains behind products—only the industry that is capable of making accurate predictions according to the constantly changing market and reacts immediately has the chance of winning. Being able to control the inventory and supply effectively would be one of the key factors leading to an industry’s success. The replenishment model of CPFR is to fill out the order according to the sales prediction, order prediction, inventory strategy, and supply information. The precision of the replenishment model could affect both suppliers and customers. The former can distribute products properly and meet the different demands from the upcoming orders so as to reduce inventory; the latter are able to revise the inventory strategy and amount of order according to the order prediction. A few research papers aimed at the replenishment model, though, most still focus on the management issues like the process framework of CPFR and the implementation benefit. Hence, establishing both an information system that coordinates customer demand with suppliers and a collaborative replenishment model that increases the accuracy of predictions is fairly important. The phase of replenishment, as the subject of this study, will approach on parameters the collaborative replenishment model needs to input and combine evolution strategies with tabu search to establish a replenishment model under the process of CPFR.

全球主要國家正積極推展「行動電視」服務，手持式行動電視將整合無線電視台、手機、電信以及創意與內容產業，被視為新媒體藍海，電視業者與電信業者都有意搶攻行動電視這塊商機。手機結合電視將成為未來行動多媒體影音平台主流，但基於台灣在發展數位廣播技術與相關接收設備產品的時程，遠落後其他已開發國家及開發中國家，因此未來發展的不確定性仍高。本研究主要以SRI情境分析法，對未來五年內台灣行動電視產業的發展進行分析預測，亦進一步探討世界主要國家其行動電視市場發展成功的關鍵因素以及台灣行動電視產業的主要影響因素。針對上述研究問題，本研究之研究結論如下： 1. 在世界各國其行動電視市場發展成功的關鍵因素方面，包括終端設備的多樣性、政府對產業的整體態度、業者策略聯盟的效應、多元或專屬的內容、彈性的營運模式及市場內需需求量。 2. 在台灣行動電視產業發展主要影響因素方面，主要涵蓋政策、技術標準及市場環境等三大構面。 3. 在我國政府與業者在行動電視產業未來的發展策略方面，主要有四大重點策略包括重視軟體研發能力、成立獎勵投資方案、創造產品差異性以及強化進入障礙屏障。 / The world's major countries are actively promoting the "Mobile TV" service, handheld mobile TV will be integrated wireless television stations, cell phones, telecommunications, and the creativity and content industry, as new media’s BlueOcean, the television industry and the telecommunication operators have the intention to grab this business opportunities. Mobile TV will be a multimedia platform for future mainstream, but based on Taiwan in the development of broadcasting technology and related products, far behind other developed countries and developing countries, therefore the future development of the uncertainty is still high. This research is based on SRI scenario forecasting methodology to predict mobile TV industry development trend in Taiwan in the next coming 5 years period, also further explore the key success factors of major countries mobile TV market, and the main influence factors of Taiwan mobile TV industry. The following is the conclusion of this research. 1. The key success factors of major countries mobile TV market, inclusive of the diversity of terminal equipment, government’s attitude, the effects of strategic alliances, Diversity of content, Flexible business model and Market demand for domestic. 2. The main influence factors of Taiwan mobile TV industry, included policies, technical standards and market environment. 3. The future development strategy at mobile TV industry, inclusive of software development capacity, encourage investment program, create product differentiation and strengthen the barrier of entry barriers.

本研究將原有概念工程的服務設計方法，結合預測市場的理論，設計出一套新的概念設計流程，就是因為服務業的特性與傳統製造業的模式大不相同。過去單方面的由公司或是廠商設計產品，顧客只能從現有產品中挑選買單的狀況將越來越不復存在。在未來服務業的世界中，越發重視與顧客間的互動，在設計的過程中就與顧客有高度的互動，強調服務是與顧客共同創作的成品，服務永遠沒有最後的完成版本，只有不斷因應環境與顧客需求改變的beta測試版本。就是因為加入人這樣極度不安定的因素，造成整體服務在設計上的困難，除此之外，也由於需要顧客的高度參與也導致設計時間成本的激增，環境的瞬息萬變，無法即時掌握顧客的需要並快速做出反應，無論是在現在與未來都將是嚴重的致命傷，也因此組織與個人都將面臨嚴峻的考驗。如何在服務水準與開發成本之間取得一個平衡點，正是本研究所希望能提供的。 / In service exchange, both providers and customers are involved in shaping the continuum of value co-production. Combining the concepts of prediction market and concept engineering, service concept design engaged by providers and customers can become much efficient and economical. The providers and customers in service industry are changing all the time. In this industry, there are many uncertain factors to consider and it is important for a design team to establish the relationship with their customers and unfold a service concept design process which can meet consumers’ expectations and needs. This study proposes an IT-enabled process of new service concept design grounded on the analytical model of precision market to achieve the design goal while minimizing the concept development cost by collective customer involvement. This IT-enabled service concept design process comprises four parts (Collecting the voice of the customers, Requirement rater, Concept generator and Concept selector) unfolding the customer-based design of new service concepts in order to meet the customer needs and potentially improve customer satisfaction in light of the uncertainty and the dynamics in what the customers want for services.

競爭是現代社會中無所不在的行為，國家或企業透過產業競爭分析、企業競爭分析，乃至市場分析及技術預測（Technological Forecast），才能知己知彼並且擬定正確的決策。對科技產業而言，若企業無法隨時掌握技術發展的趨勢，儘早投入技術研發或調整企業的經營策略。不久之後，市場便會被其他競爭對手所佔據。所幸，沒有一項技術發明是直接由發明者的腦袋直接跳到廣泛應用的境地。其間總是經過好幾個連續階段，每一個階段都使得「實用性」及「有用性」更成熟。因此若能掌握科技發展的脈絡，早期投入研發，便能維持企業的競爭優勢。 專利資訊可以用來評估與預測技術發展、規劃研發或技術發展項目、避免誤觸專利權而浪費研發資源、掌握企業發展動向及市場需求。許多企業和政府機關已經發現專利分析的重要性，並且投入大量的人力、物力來進行專利分析的工作。然而，專利的申請日和公開日之間還是存在至少18個月的時滯，若企業過渡倚賴專利資訊的分析，容易使後續的研發資源投入競爭激烈的技術紅海當中。因此若要充分掌握前瞻技術發展的脈動，基礎研究趨勢分析相對於專利趨勢分析，其重要性有過之而無不及。 在分析方法方面，現存的書目記錄以科學與技術類佔大多數，因此，以書目計量學為工具，自然成為研究「科學」技術整體發展的主流。除了傳統的計量分析之外，利用自動化的方法，挖掘大量文件中的隱含及有用知識，也是最近熱門的研究議題。對探勘技術而言，關聯分析、分群、預測等探勘技術，也漸漸成為技術預測不可或缺的工具之一。 過去曾有眾多的研究利用書目計量來分析學術論文或專利資訊，而最近幾年則陸續出現利用文字探勘來分析學術論文或專利資訊，但這樣的分析結果是片段而不完全的。本研究提出整合性的概念，同時結合計量分析（Bibliometrics）與文字探勘（Text Mining）兩種方法，分別對學術論文（Science Citation Index Expanded）與專利資訊（Derwent World Patents Index）這兩種文獻資料作分析，透過互相比較來瞭解技術發展的趨勢。除此之外，也希望透過個案分析，對本研究所提出之方法論本身，探討之間的關聯性。 在選擇個案方面，奈米科技是目前最熱門的科技產業發展方向。其中最具代表性的產業即「半導體產業」和「微機電系統產業」。蝕刻（Etching）製程與設備技術的良劣，直接影響晶圓產品良率的高低，是影響奈米科技未來發展的重要技術之一。故蝕刻技術之發展趨勢值得深入研究。 而本研究之研究結論如下： 1.技術趨勢分析在層次上宜由遠（計量分析）而近（文獻探勘），理論（論文資料）與應用（專利資料）應並重，分析結果才能互補長短。 2.科學發展與市場需求為專利技術生命週期的領先指標。 3.科學發展增加技術商業化的應用，但市場需求則強化了創新擴散的效果。 4.蝕刻技術的基礎研究目前處於成熟期，而技術發展目前處於成長期。在電子產品輕薄短小、高效能的需求下，預期蝕刻技術將持續被商業化應用。 5.蝕刻技術的領先地位，美商已逐漸被亞洲企業所取代，尤其近來南韓的半導體廠商最為積極。台灣的台積電和聯電過去已累積雄厚的技術發展基礎，惟台灣在基礎研究與產學合作方面仍待加強。

本論文分為兩部分，第一部份是探討全球航空產業的油料避險會不會對公司價值有所影響，以及油料避險的誘因。第二部份則是檢視全球航空公司的風險曝露會不會影響分析師的預測誤差，尤其是燃油價格變動的風險曝露。 / In the first essay, we examine whether jet fuel hedging increases the market value of airline companies around the world. Using a sample of 70 airline companies from 32 countries over the period 1995 to 2005, we find that jet fuel hedging is not significantly positively related to their firm value in the global airlines, but this positive relationship holds in the various sub-samples and is significant for US and non-alliance firms. Moreover, our results show that the risk-taking behavior of executives and the tendency to avoid financial distress are important determinants for the jet fuel hedging activities of non-US airline companies. Alleviating the problem of underinvestment is also an important factor to explain the jet fuel hedging activities of US and non-alliance firms. Our results add support to the growing body of literature which finds that hedging increases firm value for global airline companies. In the second essay, we examine the extent analysts revise their earnings forecasts in response to oil price, interest rate and foreign exchange rate shocks they have observed during the year, and whether these revisions contain additional information about how current and past price shocks affect reported earnings, using the sample of the global airline industry. Empirical results indicate that jet fuel hedging can increase analysts’ forecast revisions in the total sample, and in the sub-sample of the volatile fuel price period. These results can also be seen in US and non-US airlines, and airlines with both strong and weak governance. Overall, our results show that oil price shocks play an important role in investor and analyst information uncertainty with regard to the global airline industry. Consequently, corporate risk disclosures only provide limited information about firms’ financial risk exposures. Two essays are comprised in this dussertation to examine whether jet fuel hedging has effects on firm value and analysts’ forecast accuracy in the global airline industry. Using global data allows us to cmpare the differences of jet fuel hedging behavior and incentives for hedging across different sub-samples. Furthermore, we also examine how jet fuel hedging affects analysts’ forecast erros across different sub-samples and its implications for firm disclosures about their risk exposures in the financial reports. In the first essay, we examine whether jet fuel hedging increases the market value of airline companies around the world. Using a sample of 70 airline companies from 32 countries over the period 1995 to 2005, we find that jet fuel hedging is not significantly positively related to their firm value in the global airlines, but this positive relationship holds in the various sub-samples and is significant for US and non-alliance firms. Moreover, our results show that the risk-taking behavior of executives and the tendency to avoid financial distress are important determinants for the jet fuel hedging activities of non-US airline companies. Alleviating the problem of underinvestment is also an important factor to explain the jet fuel hedging activities of US and non-alliance firms. Our results add support to the growing body of literature which finds that hedging increases firm value for global airline companies. In the second essay, we examine the extent analysts revise their earnings forecasts in response to oil price, interest rate and foreign exchange rate shocks they have observed during the year, and whether these revisions contain additional information about how current and past price shocks affect reported earnings, using the sample of the global airline industry. Empirical results indicate that jet fuel hedging can increase analysts’ forecast revisions in the total sample, and in the sub-sample of the volatile fuel price period. These results can also be seen in US and non-US airlines, and airlines with both strong and weak governance. Overall, our results show that oil price shocks play an important role in investor and analyst information uncertainty with regard to the global airline industry. Consequently, corporate risk disclosures only provide limited information about firms’ financial risk exposures.