高齡化社會是全球都將面對的問題，預估2018年我國將進入高齡社會，2026年將為超高齡社會，高齡者之經濟以及長期照護規劃更顯刻不容緩。本研究目的為探討目前我國金融市場現有之退休財務規劃商品，依台灣平均家戶所得區分成高中低三個層級，以個案金融控股公司為例，探討不同資產階層之族群該如何妥適安排退休財務規劃。 本研究以我國人口結構趨勢分析高齡化社會對金融市場的影響，進而了解高齡者之主要經濟來源及目前社會福利制度，以及高齡化社會之金融商品發展現況及風險分析。 在分析個案金融控股公司現有之金融商品對不同資產階層之適性配置後，針對個案公司提供建議包括：一、應開辦逆向抵押貸款服務；二、研發多元的信託服務，協助管理並將協助將其資本利得及利息收益用於安排高齡者生活、醫療及長照所需。同時建議政府機關應有相關因應措施：一、放寬開發結合安養照護、醫療及社會福利的商品；二、研議相關監理誘因；三、應予放寬賦稅優惠；四、師法國外先進制度及機制。 / An aging society is an issue the globe will need to deal with. Taiwan is expected to move into an aged society in 2018, and further a hyper-aged society in 2026, making it critical to plan for economic support and long-term care for the aged population. This article is to examine financial products designed for retirement available in the market and then explore how different groups of people, categorized as high, medium, or low level by the standard of Taiwan average household income, can better prepare for their retirement by making reference to examples from a financial holding company. This article starts with understanding the potential impact from an aging society on the financial market and then the main income source of and social welfare system for the aged population, and continues with analyzing the development and associated risks of financial products designed for an aged society. After analysis of the product offering to different asset level clients by the financial holding company under study, suggestions to this company included (1) introduction of reverse mortgage product, and (2) innovation for more diversified trust service, in order to support the aged for preparing for their life and needs for medical and long-term care. In the meantime, corresponding actions suggested to the government authorities included (1) relaxation on product development to bundle long-term and medical care and social welfare, (2) provision of relevant regulatory incentives, (3) more tax benefits, and (4) introduction of better system and program from other countries.

本文係針對台灣地區各縣市1999至2008年之老人安養機構設立之床位數進行分析，利用雙因子固定效果模型（two-factor fixed effects model）探討台灣地區各縣市老人安養機構設立之重要影響變數，以及這些變數對於老人安養機構設立床位數影響程度之強弱。本文首先將文獻之檢閱做整理介紹，先概述至今國內外討論老人安養機構設立及使用之相關文章重要觀點，了解這些文章作者的研究時間與空間範圍、所使用分析方法、論點及其變數設定，在最後與本研究之結論相互比較，觀察文獻與本研究之間是否具有一致性。 由於本論文重視各地區變數之影響，故本研究使用具地域性之各縣市數據資料作為變數，經由資料蒐集，將合適之變數納入研究考量，參閱文獻資料，加上能夠取得之數據資料為考量。本文將討論下列變數：台灣地區實質薪資、各縣市老年人口數、各縣市人口密度、各縣市教育程度為大專及以上人口之比率、各縣市失業率、各縣市女性勞動參與率、各縣市15歲以上人口婚姻狀況有偶人數比率、各縣市出生率、各縣市外籍與大陸配偶人數、各縣市社福外籍勞工人數以及各縣市每萬老人接受居家服務人次等十一個變數。對於老人安養機構設立數之關係，觀察其影響程度，了解各地區差異，期能對政府提供具體的政策建議，並對未來各縣市公私立老人安養機構之設立提供參考。 / This study analyses the number of the beds established of the long-term care (LTC) facilities of each city and county in Taiwan between 1999 and 2008, using “two-factor fixed effects model” to explore some of the important influential variables of the long-term care facilities of each city and county, and the strength of the relation of these variables of the hospital beds. This article firstly introduces and reviews some articles and studies that are basically related, and overview the important points of view of the establishment of the long-term care facilities, to understand the analytical methods and the arguments of these articles and authors. As the importance of this thesis, the effect of regional variables, the study uses cities and counties level variables. Through data collection, using the variables in the study that are considered appropriate. Refer to the literature, adding with data obtained for the considerations. This article will discuss the following variables: the real wage of Taiwan each year, the number of counties and cities in the elderly population, the population density, the population with tertiary education level, the unemployment rate, the female labor force participation rate, the population over the age 15 that have marital status, the proportion of birth rate, the number of foreign and mainland spouses, the number of the welfare of foreign workers per 10,000 of the elderly receiving home care people, totally 11 variables. To establish the relationship between the number of observed effect level of long-term care facilities of each city and county, to understand the regional differences, to provide the government on specific policy recommendations. In the future, we expect to provide the public and private sectors the reference establishment of nursing agencies of each city and county.

在逐漸高齡化的社會中，關注老人的生活議題並加以分析益顯重要。在研究老人問題時，由於研究對象均曾經歷不同的時空背景與人生閱歷，各個體間存在的差異極大；不同族群的老人對其所慣用語彙的理解與表達亦不盡相同。故若利用傳統的統計分析研究結果，強迫人們採用二元邏輯的方式思考與解釋，可能會導致偏差或錯誤的結論。且傳統的統計檢定方法，往往假定取樣的樣本滿足某個分配，因而導致過多的解釋，影響決策品質。 因此，為避免因誤解老人而造成虛耗社會成本，使有限的社會資源得以充分運用，本文於研究老人身心特質與個人期待時，嘗試以模糊理論的軟計算，提出反模糊化轉換。並應用中位數檢定及變異數檢定，建立當統計參數為模糊數或模糊區間時之小樣本無母數模糊統計檢定方法模型。由實證例子分析結果顯示，我們提出的檢定方法，能有效分析模糊樣本的問題，並進而期望能對老人議題的分析和決策有所貢獻，及將此方法運用於其它模糊性議題之研究。 / In a gradually aging society, it is important to pay attention to and then analyze elderly people’s life issues. When a study about elderly people is undertaken, the subjects are very inconsistent given their diverse life experience, and various subgroups of subjects have quite different understanding of and way of expressing a vocabulary. Therefore, analyzing study result with conventional statistical analysis method, which forces thinking in a binary logic way, may lead to biased or erroneous conclusion. Furthermore, a conventional statistical test, usually assuming a certain distribution for its samples, may lead to exaggerated explanation, which is detrimental to the quality of a decision. So, in order to avoid the waste of our social cost from misunderstanding of the elderly, and to make the most use of our limited social resource, when we investigated the elderly people’s personal characteristics and expectations, we tried to apply the soft calculation of the fuzzy theory, proposed the counter-fuzzy transformation, and, by using the median test and variance test, established a nonparametric fuzzy statistical model for small-sized samples and for parameters of the fuzzy number or fuzzy interval types. The analyses of real-world examples demonstrated that this method of statistical test can analyze the problems of fuzzy samples, and can hopefully contribute to improved analysis and decision making of the elderly people’s issues, and apply this method on the investigation of other fuzzy social issues. Key words: counter-fuzzy transformation, fuzzy statistical analysis, median test, variance test, aging society.

有鑑於過去人口結構的變化，台灣已成為人口老化速度最快的國家，人口老 齡化已成為一個重大議題。而老年人比例最高的日本，卻出現廣泛的老年貧窮 （下流老人）現象。因此，本研究以日本的情況為依據，對台灣老年貧窮的整體 概況和未來趨勢的發展進行資料整合與分析。主要探討台灣“老年貧窮”問題的 出現，並找出其影響的程度及其未來的發展，後續並深入分析其造成台灣“老年 貧窮”問題之關鍵指標因素，以及政府解決老年貧窮問題的政策與措施。研究發 現，超過五成老年人口落在最低收入、最貧窮層級的家戶中，顯示台灣社會的“老 年貧窮”現象有所增加。而造成台灣老年貧窮的原因為：一、退休養老金不足（低 於基本生活開銷）; 二、就業（低薪的工作環境）; 三、家庭養老功能下降（老 人獨居比率不斷上升）; 四、太早離開勞動力市場（儲蓄不足）。研究結果顯示，弱化的社會保障制度是老年貧窮比率升高的主要原因，而老年貧窮的現象亦廣泛存在於台灣社會，因此建議需提升公眾意識，提早準備充足的退休養老金、並加 強社區老人關懷功能、以及持續關注老年貧窮的問題。本研究結果可提供未來探 討台灣老年貧窮議題之參考，相關研究值得後續做進一步的探討分析。 / In view of the change in demographic structure in the past few years, Taiwan has become the country with the fastest speed of population aging. The aging population has become a major issue. Japan has the highest ratio of aged citizens, and the widely discussed phenomena of elderly poverty (The low-living elderly). Thus, this study based on Japan's case, has systematically reviewed, analyzed, and secondary data, in order to provide the overall and future trends of elderly poverty situation in Taiwan. The study probes into the emergence of the “elderly poverty” problem and try to find out the extent of this problem and its future outlook, to explore the causes of the “elderly poverty” problem in Taiwan and the official measures for alleviating elderly poverty. The research found that more than 50% of the elderly was the poorest households with the lowest income, nearly half of the elderly population falls to the lowest and poorest level, shows “the low-living elderly” phenomenon has increasing in Taiwan’s society. The causes of the elderly poverty in Taiwan: 1. the labor pension is too low (less than the necessary living expenses); 2. unstable employment (low income work); 3. family care function are decline (the elders living alone has keep rising); 4. early to exit from the labor market (lack of deposits). The weakened social security system are the main causes for the rising old-age poverty. The elderly poverty exists widely and need to promote public awareness for prepare adequate deposit in retirement, strengthen care function of community and focus on the elderly poor issues. For overall pictures of elderly poverty in Taiwan is worthy of further investigation and discussion.