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A macroeconometric analysis of foreign aid in economic growth and development in least developed countries : a case study of the Lao People's Democratic Republic (1978-2001) : a dissertation presented in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economics at Massey University, Palmerston North, New ZealandXayavong, Vilaphonh Unknown Date (has links)
Despite receiving large quantities of aid, many developing countries, especially the Least Developed Countries, have remained stagnant and became more aid-dependent. This grim reality provokes vigorous debate on the effectiveness of aid. This study re-examines the effectiveness of aid, focusing on the ongoing debate on the interactive effect of aid and policy conditionality on sustainable economic growth. A theoretical model of the aid-growth nexus was developed to explain why policy conditionality attached to aid may not always promote sustainable economic growth. Noticeable methodological weaknesses in the aid fungibility and aid-growth models have led to the construction of two macroeconometric models to tackle and reduce these weaknesses. The Lao People's Democratic Republic's economy for the 1978-2001 period has been used for a case study.It is argued that the quality of policy conditionality and the recipient country's ability to complete specified policy conditions are the main factors determining the effectiveness of aid. Completing the policy prescriptions contributes to a stable aid inflow. The aid-growth nexus model developed in this study shows that stable and moderate aid inflow boosts economic growth even when aid is fungible. However, failure to complete the policy conditionality owing to inadequate policy design and problems of policy mismanagement caused by lack of state and institutional capability in the recipient country triggers an unstable aid inflow. The model shows that unstable aid flows reduce capital accumulation and economic growth in the recipient country. These empirical findings reveal that policy conditionality propagated through the "adjustment programmes" has mitigated the side effects of aid fungibility and "Dutch disease" in the case of the Lao PDR. Preliminary success in implementing the policy conditions in the pre-1997 period led to a stable aid inflow and contributed to higher economic growth. This favourable circumstance, however, was impaired by unstable aid flow in the post-1997 period. The lack of state and institutional capacity in the Lao PDR and the inadequate policy design to deal with external shocks triggered the instability of aid inflow, which in turn exacerbated the negative effects of the Asian financial crisis on the Lao PDR's economy.
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Institutional factors that influence access of the poor to forest benefits : case studies of community and leasehold forestry regimes in Nepal : a thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in Rural Development, Massey University, Institute of Natural Resources, Palmerston North, New ZealandBajracharya, Bijaya January 2008 (has links)
The community and leasehold forestry regimes (CF and LF regimes) are high priority programmes that are designed by the Nepalese government to conserve forests and reduce poverty through the introduction of formal institutions in terms of legal property rights and governance structures and processes. However, little is known about the mechanisms through which informal and formal institutions influence resource access of the poor under these regimes. By employing a collective case study approach, this research provides some understanding of the mechanisms through which formal and informal institutional factors influence access of the poor to forest resources governed under the CF and LF regimes in Nepal. This study found that informal institutional factors significantly influence the impact of formal institutions irrespective of the regime that was imposed on the Nepalese hill communities. It was revealed that where more than one social group co-exist in a community, discriminatory sociocultural norms (for example patriarchal and caste-based norms), and customary property rights favour one social group over others. As a result, certain social groups have greater access to resources and benefits from the resources than do other social groups. Of particular significance, and not previously reported, the lack of prior experience in collective action of the low castes along with their weak social networks and poor leadership ability is highlighted as being directly linked to their relatively limited access to forest resources. When the Bista system, a specific type of a traditional bridging social network is eroded, the low castes end up with less access due to removal of support from the high castes. This study shows that a more inclusive regime (for example CF regime) is likely to lead to more effective outcomes for the livelihood of the poor as compared to a more exclusive regime (e.g. LF regime). When the powerful are included in the forest user group (FUG), along with the poor, there is less resistance to the shift in property rights and the improved access of the poor to forest benefits that the regimes are intended to achieve. However, it was found that active participation is more determinant of resource access than is a specified set of property rights granted by right of membership in a FUG. Although some FUG governance structures provide a forum where the disadvantaged members of the FUGs have the right to participate in decision making, their participation is constrained by discriminatory sociocultural norms. Further, this study revealed that the decision-making processes dominated by the elites tend to address the needs of the disadvantaged members to only a very limited extent. However, improving capacities has the potential to enhance participation of disadvantaged members in the processes. The research findings suggest that informal institutions must explicitly be considered in the design and implementation of CBNRM regimes in order for them to be successful in improving livelihoods of the poor. The implementing staff need support mechanisms for changing their own attitudes and behaviours to those that are more favourable to the social shift that the regimes are intended to bring about. CBNRM regimes have the potential to improve the livelihoods of the poor, but research must continue on how this can be achieved.
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Determinants of household saving in ChinaHuang, Peng January 2006 (has links)
It is a conventional wisdom that since the start of the Chinese economic reform in 1978, the domestic saving structure in China has changed significantly. Previous studies of household saving in China (for example: Qian, 1988, Feltenstein et al, 1990, and Wakabayashi and Mackellar, 1999) have usually relied upon the Keynesian absolute-income hypothesis, Duesenberry's relative-income hypothesis, and Friedman's permanent-income hypothesis. This thesis uses the Modigliani-Brumberg life-cycle hypothesis to examine the determinants of household saving behavior in the Peoples' Republic of China during the period 1978 to 2003. The research uses modern cointegration techniques to examine the impact on saving rates of economic growth, age dependency, wealth, the real interest rate, social security payments and unemployment (as a proxy for income uncertainty). Autoregressive distributed lag models are constructed and tested. The results find that economic growth, the real interest rate and social security payments have the expected effect with significant parameters; age dependency has the expected sign but in one model is not statistically significant; and that unemployment is not significant. The most surprising result is that increases in household wealth are associated with increased saving rates, which may help explain very high economic growth rates in China post 1978.
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A quantitative analysis of trade-related issues in the global kiwifruit industryAnker-Kofoed, Ellen January 2008 (has links)
New Zealand is currently the third largest global producer of kiwifruit and thus plays an important role in the international market. Exports of kiwifruit are also of significant horticultural value for New Zealand and in 2007 the kiwifruit industry accounted for export values of NZ$790 million. The global kiwifruit market has experienced substantial changes in recent years and is likely to change significantly in the near future due to developments in production sources, adjustments to trade policy settings and shifts in consumer preferences. The New Zealand kiwifruit industry needs to consider what the impacts of these changes might be so that future strategies can be constructed effectively. Little quantitative modelling has been done in New Zealand to consider the impacts of changes to the global kiwifruit industry. The major contribution of this research was the development and calibration of a kiwifruit industry-specific partial equilibrium trade model. The model was then used to examine the impacts on New Zealand producers of these trade-related changes in the global kiwifruit market. Three relevant scenarios were developed for this purpose. They include a drop in EU demand through the introduction of a stricter Sanitary and Phytosanitary policy, an expansion of the Chinese kiwifruit industry where production is doubled by year 2013 and finally a trade liberalisation scenario where current import tariffs on kiwifruit were removed worldwide. It is clearly observed, through both the Chinese expansion scenario and the trade liberalisation scenario, what a potential impact and future role China has as a world market player. Increased availability of Chinese kiwifruit appears to affect New Zealand producer returns and exported quantities negatively, albeit not as significantly as the EU introduction of an SPS policy. A trade liberalisation scenario, on the other hand, proves to increase New Zealand grower returns significantly for all varieties.
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A Post-classical economics approach to ecosystem managementHearnshaw, Edward J. S. January 2009 (has links)
A principal purpose of this thesis is to present an economic evaluation of ecosystems. The concept of ecosystem health is adopted to ascertain the status of ecosystems. Ecosystem health is considered in part an economic concept and defined as a function of utility through the ecosystem services that satisfy various needs, subject to preserving the integrity of the adaptive cycle. In order to quantify the utility supplied by ecosystem services the novel utility index Ecosystem Outcome Protection Year (ECOPY) is developed. By forming this index, an evaluation can be performed using cost utility analysis, which avoids monetizing these benefits. An attempt is made to ascertain an appropriate approach for ecosystem management. It is reasoned that expert intuition can determine some kind of macro-regularities in ecosystems despite their complex dynamics. Hence, these inferences could be used for ecosystem management. Adaptive co-management is introduced as a means to bring about the collaboration of experts as resource co-managers. The concept of informed intuition is developed to bring about a systematic approach to learning and evaluation where the mental models of experts are transcribed using fuzzy cognitive mapping. However, it is argued that ecosystems as complex adaptive systems are non-ergodic and full of surprises. Accordingly, abduction, the logic of creative conjecture is systematically developed, for the purposes of maintaining mental model flexibility. This systematic application of abduction with an informed intuition forms the proposed abductive process of research, which is grounded in Shacklean potential surprise, a non-probabilistic function. To demonstrate this novel research process, a post-classical economic evaluation of Te Waihora lake ecosystem is undertaken, which employs the ECOPY index and potential surprise method. This empirical case study reveals various cost-effective management actions for improving lake health, which went beyond the intuitions of resource co-managers. This indicated the potential of the approach, which is considered a significant contribution for the methodological development of ecosystem management.
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Determining individuals’ response to New Zealand biosecurityBewsell, Denise January 2010 (has links)
The effectiveness of biosecurity measures at national borders is influenced by the behaviour of individuals. One influence on the behaviour of individuals is level of involvement. Involvement is the importance or relevance of an object or situation to an individual. Involvement helps regulate the way in which people receive and process information and thus influences the extent of information searching for decision making, information processing and persuasion. A second area of influence on individuals is the way in which information is framed. Framing influences the persuasiveness of communications. In this study the concept of involvement was used to investigate the response of individuals to New Zealand biosecurity requirements and the response of individuals to differently framed biosecurity information. A range of people associated with the agricultural and food processing sectors were surveyed using a five item scale of involvement to measure their level of involvement in biosecurity. The results indicated that most respondents had medium to high levels of involvement. This implies that respondents were motivated to attend to and process information on biosecurity measures. However, not all respondents reported taking note of biosecurity information implying that involvement with biosecurity prompts some initial information processing which may or may not continue over time. Respondents were also asked to rate four postcards, each designed with a different message strategy. Individuals with high involvement indicated that the postcard with the negatively framed emotion/entertainment message strategy was most persuasive. The results indicate that specifically targeting information to individuals based on their level of involvement in biosecurity may increase compliance with biosecurity measures.
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Monthly house price indices and their applications in New Zealand : a thesis presented in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business, Massey UniversityShi, Song January 2009 (has links)
Developing timely and reliable house price indices is of interest worldwide, because these measures influence consumer behaviour, inflation targeting, and spot and futures markets. Several techniques for constructing a constant quality price index are available in the literature, but these methods are difficult to apply in localities where market transaction data is limited. Since house price movements are a local phenomena, improving the timeliness of a quality controlled price index at local housing market levels in small countries like New Zealand is a challenge. This thesis comprises three essays that focused on improving the timeliness of reported house price indices at the local market levels. The timeliness issue examined in this thesis has not previously been rigorously investigated and this makes the results of this thesis both important and unique for the benefit of both academic research and practical application. Essay One reviews the sale price appraisal ratio (SPAR) method, which has been applied since the 1960s for producing local house price indices at a semi-annual and quarterly basis in New Zealand. Utilizing a variety of statistical tests and comparing this index with the repeat sales and median price index result in the study highlighting the potential of, as well as the problems associated with, a price index produced by the SPAR method at a monthly level. In the following two essays, monthly price indices are tested using empirical real estate research methods in order to examine their usefulness in exploring the research questions as well as revealing the statistical differences between them. Essay Two studies the relationship between sale price and trading volume, and the ripple effect of local house price comovements. The results show that the trading volume generally leads the sale price in the long-run and the ripple effect is most likely constrained within regions. In Essay Two, the monthly SPAR index produces similar statistical results to those estimated by the repeat sales index for large cities. Essay Three is a study on the market efficiency of housing markets. It is found the local housing market is neither weak-form nor semi-strong form efficient. Local house price movements are strongly correlated and are mean reverting towards their long-run equilibrium. It is further concluded that monthly price indices for small cities are problematic due to the problem of small sample size. Overall, the findings in this thesis show monthly house price indices can be generated by using the SPAR method at local market levels. However, this potential is limited to large cities. Further research can focus on improving the quality of monthly price indices for large cities.
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Publishing Culture : Commissioning Books in Australia, 1970-2000Brown, Diane January 2003 (has links) (PDF)
This study primarily examines the cultural and commercial practices of editors and publishers who commission and acquire content in independent Australian publishing houses. My research spans a 30-year transitional period in book publishing from 1970 to 2000 - a period marked by rapid and unstable shifts in publishing culture, reflecting wider social, political, economic and technological change. In a global market economy, more than ever before, the acquisition of local content is critical in fostering original ideas and works by Australian authors. A series of semi-structured interviews with editors and publishers provides a direct source of personal experience and professional industry-based knowledge. These narratives address and engage with individual and collective values, beliefs, assumptions and attitudes which reflect particular personalities and publishing styles. They also contribute to an understanding of the editors' and publishers' commissioning role, where knowledge and content are taken up and developed and publishing decisions are made. An analysis of editors' and publishers' responses further explores the diversity of commissioning and acquisitions environments in which they live and work. Publishing houses are profiled and works of fiction and non-fiction are identified and discussed in an attempt to unpack how and why they were commissioned and developed for publication, and to what social and cultural effect. The dynamics of organisational structure and publishing culture are explored by analysing general and specific publishing models. Editors and publishers discuss how publishing companies operate and offer insights into, and perceptions of, organisational structure and publishing culture and, importantly, how both impact on commissioning practice. Issues of identity, representation and institutionalisation are identified as they relate to developments and trends within publishing and public culture, as a whole, and the ways in which they intersect. This nexus of culture and power is explored through the cultural production of Australian content, and in particular, in Chapters Five and Six, with the impact of second-wave feminism on Australian publishing culture and cross-currents in the production and publication of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander works.
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Creating and capturing value in the biopharmaceutical sectorRasmussen, Bruce January 2008 (has links) (PDF)
This study addresses the ongoing implications of the realignment of the pharmaceutical industry knowledge base – from small molecule methods to new biomedical technologies – for the competitive positions of traditional pharmaceutical companies and biopharmaceutical start-ups. The theoretical approach draws on the modern theory of the firm and related concepts, to define and develop the concept of the business model. This is employed to guide the empirical analysis, which utilises a combination of data analyses and case studies based on several sources, including detailed company reports and alliance databases. The thesis analyses how the pharmaceutical companies have successfully adjusted their business models to meet the challenge of biotechnology and so retain their powerful position in the industry. Central to this has been the breadth and depth of knowledge transfer through alliance formation. Not only has this been critical to the adjustment process for the large pharmaceutical companies but also for the development of the many biopharmaceutical start ups. Nonetheless the business models of these smaller companies have many weaknesses, which have led to the erosion of the value of their initial strategic assets. Despite the poor financial performance of the vast majority of these firms, the biopharmaceutical sector as a whole has created significant value. This has been captured disproportionately by a handful of large fully integrated biopharmaceutical firms and, to a lesser extent, by the largest dozen pharmaceutical firms.
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The role of information technology in disseminating innovations in agribusiness: a comparative study of Australia and Sri LankaArumapperuma, Sudath January 2008 (has links) (PDF)
In the wake of the rapid evolution of information technology (IT), including the internet, during the last three decades, much attention has been given to the introduction of IT to the agricultural sector, and to ensuring its adoption by farmers. Given its apparent ability to provide rich information to a large number of people, hopes have been raised about the role of IT as a tool for diffusing innovations in the agricultural sector. This thesis addresses the reality of such a role in Australia and Sri Lanka. Following the broader innovation literature, an innovations systems approach is used, and the key aspects of diffusion stressed are reach, richness and the time taken. The agricultural innovation system (AIS) is seen as a complex interactive system involving actors fulfilling eleven functions – policy, education, finance and credit, marketing, input supply, research, extension and information, logistics, processing and storage, farmers and farm organisations, and consumers. It is clear that the Australian AIS is more effective than its Sri Lankan counterpart in terms of its use of leading-edge technologies, competition in global markets with innovative products, and quick diffusion of research findings to farmers. The use of IT in agribusiness in Australia is quite advanced, although still limited in small firms. While there are many examples of the use of IT for innovation diffusion in Australian agriculture, there is little evidence that this is yet a widely used process for the spread of innovations. The situation in Sri Lanka is quite different, with low levels of computer literacy and usage in the farm sector, with technology transfer ‘across the last mile’ remaining the weakest link in the Sri Lankan AIS. But farmers often go to great efforts to obtain better information, and much attention is being given by the Government and NGOs to the development of wireless networks, telecentres and other methods for promoting IT access and knowledge diffusion in the rural sector in Sri Lanka. Given the heterogeneous nature of the actors in an AIS, together with the importance of tacit knowledge and social and peer groups factors, IT will complement existing methods of innovation diffusion for the foreseeable future, rather than substitute them. Nevertheless, IT is likely to become increasingly important in innovation diffusion in agriculture, in both developed countries and in developing economies such as Sri Lanka. In implementing policies to this end, Sri Lanka must give due attention to the complex interactions between the many players in the AIS, to the role of tacit knowledge and social actors, and to the low level of the IT literacy in the rural sector. While continuing efforts to build relevant infrastructure are essential, these must be supported by measures to strengthen communication between the actors in the AIS, by education and capability development for farmers and by the creation of suitably tailored digital information packages on key issues.
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