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published_or_final_version / Public Administration / Master / Master of Public Administration

In 2011, a period began in which the United States demographic will change to include the largest, least prepared, and most diverse elderly population in our nation’s history. That was the year the “Baby Boomer” generation started retiring and members of this large cohort will continue to do so for approximately twenty years (Kemper, Komisar & Alecxih, 2005). Chronic health conditions and the obesity epidemic may make retirement years less healthy ones than for previous generations of older adults. Lifestyle changes in Baby Boomers as compared to previous cohorts of elders – increased divorce, fewer children, nontraditional family relationships – may result in less support for frail elders when they can no longer care for themselves, thereby increasing their vulnerability to long-term care placement (Cherlin, 2010; Ryan, Smith, Antonucci & Jackson, 2012

This thesis describes some models that attempt to forecast the number of occupied beds due to emergency admissions each day in an acute general hospital. Hospital bed managers have two conflicting demands: they must not only ensure that at all times they have sufficient empty beds to cope with possible emergency admissions but they must fill as many empty beds as possible with people on the waiting list. This model is important as it could help balance these two conflicting demands. The research is based on data from a district general and a postgraduate teaching hospital in South East London. Several tests indicate that emergency bed occupancy may have a nonlinear underlying data generating process. Therefore, both linear models and nonlinear models have been fitted to the data. At horizons up to 14 days, it was found that there was no statistically significant difference in the errors from the linear and nonlinear models. However at the 35 day forecast horizon the linear model gives the best forecast and tests indicate errors from this model are within 4% of mean occupancy. It is noted that a Markov Switching model gave very good forecasts of up to 4 days into the future. A search of the literature found no previous research that tested emergency bed occupancy for nonlinearities. The thesis ends with a gravity model to predict the change in number of Accident and Emergency (A&E) attendances following the relocation of an A&E Department in South East London.

The role of community pharmacy (CP) in health promotion has developed over the last decade and a half following the introduction of the new National Health Service (NHS) plan in 2000. CPs have been turned into healthy living centres where individuals can access a variety of services designed to prevent disease and promote health. In 2005, three types of pharmacy service were introduced; essential, advanced and enhanced (currently known as locally commissioned). Enhanced pharmacy services were provided by Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) (until 2010) based on local needs identified by PCTs. In 2010, the Government decided to abolish the PCTs by 1‘"t April 2013; hence, PCTs entered a transition phase between 2010 and April 2013. By February 2011, each PCT was required to publish Pharmaceutical Needs Assessment (PNA) report regarding the provision and need for pharmacy services. The national commissioned vascular and sexual health enhanced pharmacy services in England are Stop Smoking Service (SSS), NHS health check, Emergency Hormonal Contraception (EHC) and chlamydia screening and treatment services. In 2012, the Healthy Living Pharmacy (HLP) scheme, which was piloted in Portsmouth PCT, was expanded to 30 PCTs known as HLP pathfinder PCTs. The aim of this research was to identify the correlation between needs, provision and uptake of vascular and sexual health pharmacy services at a PCT and CP level. It also aimed to investigate whether the provision of those services was cost effective. Finally, it aimed to determine the impact of the introduction of the HLP scheme on the provision and uptake of those services. At a PCT level, the PNA reports were used to identify the CP provision of SSS, EHC service and chlamydia screening service for the financial year 2009/2010. The local need for SSS (prevalence of smoking adults) and EHC services (rates of teenage pregnancy) were obtained from Health Profiles for each PCT. The need for chlamydia screening service (prevalence of positive chlamydia infection) was obtained from the National Chlamydia Service Programme (NCSP). Uptake and cost attributed to provision of those services for the financial year 2009/2010 were obtained from a short questionnaire targeted the public health leads for the related services in PCTs where the provision of services and the needs were identified. Simple cost-effectiveness analyses were performed on CP SSS and CP EHC provision, based on identified uptake and cost. At a CP level, a cross-sectional survey was conducted on 1 249 CPs in 28 PCTs across England in 2013. PCTs were chosen based on provision of SSS, EHC and chlamydia screening service identified in the PNA reports. 7 PCTs out of 28 PCTs were HLP pathfinder PCTs. CPs were allocated to one of five groups based on deprivation. The response rates for SSS, EHC and chlamydia screening surveys were 30% (42/138), 30% (42/139) and 19% (21/111) respectively. Data analysis identified that the need for SSS and EHC services were highly correlated with deprivation, with Spearman's rank correlation coefficients (rho) of 0.76 and 0.83 respectively (both P 0.001). The correlation between deprivation and the need for a chlamydia service was weak (rho = 0.25, P = 0.009). Higher number of CPs per 25 000 population were observed in more deprived PCTs (rho = 0.63, P < 0.001). CP provision (percentage of CPs offering a service out of total CPs in a PCT) of SSS, EHC and chlamydia service did not correlate with needs. The uptake of SSS, EHC and the chlamydia screening service did not correlate with increasing need or deprivation. However, pharmacists in areas of higher need dealt with a greater number of clients in relation to SSS and EHC services to meet their local needs, with rho of 0.4 and P of 0.01 in case of SSS and Pearson's correlation coefficient (R) of 0.36 and P of 0.02 in case of EHC. A cost-effective analysis of CP SSS provision found it to be cost effective when compared to no intervention based on NHS perceptive and the incremental cost per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) gained. was £1 511. Similarly, the CP EHC service was also found to be cost effective with an NHS saving of £689 per unintended pregnancy prevented. The response rate for the CP survey was 19.3% (241/1 249). No significant differences were identified in terms of provision or uptake of SSS, EHC, chlamydia screening and NHS health check services between CPs with different deprivation neighbourhoods. 18.5% (31/168) of the respondent community pharmacists were working in HLPs. The uptake of SSS through HLPs (median = 6) was higher than that through non-HLPs (median = 4; P = 0.02)._Playing a more active role in health promotion was cited as the main driver for pharmacists to adopt an HLP scheme. Respondent pharmacists indicated that the introduction of an HLP scheme had improved public awareness of vascular and sexual health services available in CPs and they suggested the use of social media websites to further improve public awareness. Lack of time and the provision of similar services via other providers were considered the main barriers. Local Authorities should increase the provision of vascular and sexual health pharmacy services to meet the needs of their localities. They should use the latest technology to improve public awareness regarding availability of those services in CPs.

Pre-existing dementia is associated with poorer functional outcome after stroke. It is unclear however whether this is due to lack of access to, or inequality in, stroke rehabilitation. This PhD used mixed methods to understand whether pre-existing dementia is a factor considered by clinicians when referring/admitting patients for rehabilitation, when providing rehabilitation interventions, and whether there is a difference in rehabilitation received by patients with and without pre-existing dementia. A background literature review informed the first study, which was a systematic review examining factors influencing clinical decision-making about access to stroke rehabilitation. The systematic review suggested that pre-stroke cognition influenced referrals/admission to rehabilitation, however, no studies examined this specifically. The qualitative study therefore used interviews (n=23) to explore clinicians experiences of decision-making about rehabilitation for patients with pre-existing dementia/cognitive impairments. The findings highlighted that clinicians own knowledge influenced their decision-making, with a common perception that people with pre-existing cognitive impairment lack potential to benefit from rehabilitation. The third study, a prospective cohort study, examined differences in rehabilitation received by patients with and without pre-existing cognitive impairments (n=139). People with pre-existing cognitive impairments received less rehabilitation than those without, particularly physiotherapy and referral to community therapies and more non-patient facing occupational therapy. This PhD identified that people with pre-existing dementia/cognitive impairment receive less rehabilitation when compared to those without. This may be, in part, due to clinicians decision-making about which patients should receive stroke rehabilitation. These findings have multiple clinical implications, particularly around the number of patients in stroke services with undiagnosed pre-existing cognitive impairment. Decisions can become more equitable by ensuring clinicians have access to relevant education, training and skills to work alongside patients with pre-existing dementia/cognitive impairments.