Cette étude aborde la problématique de la participation des personnes morales de droit public à l’arbitrage à l’occasion des litiges relatifs aux relations qu’elles entretiennent avec les personnes privées étrangères. Par opportunisme économique, un certain nombre de pays développés et en développement se montrent tout à fait favorables à ce que l’État se soumette au contentieux arbitral. Dans d’autres pays, tels qu’en Amérique latine et dans le monde arabe, il se manifeste des tendances nettement hostiles gravitant entre l’interdiction totale et une adhésion conditionnelle de l’État à l’arbitrage. Deux écoles s’affrontent, celle des privatistes qui considèrent l’arbitre international comme le juge naturel du milieu des affaires, face à celle des étatistes qui postulent que les juridictions étatiques demeurent les seules habiles à connaitre souverainement des litiges opposants les personnes publiques à leur interlocuteur privé. Les raisons qui sous-tendent l’assouplissement de certains gouvernements vers un élan libéral de l’arbitrage en droit public, résultent du phénomène globalisant de l’économie qui tend à réduire à néant les règles internes des États dans le cadre du nouvel ordre économique mondial. Par contre, les conséquences sociales, financières et juridiques des sentences arbitrales portent certains gouvernements à adopter une position réfractaire à l’arbitrage mettant en cause les entités publiques. Ils brandissent le droit à l’autodétermination des peuples pour éviter le bradage de leurs ressources au détriment des droits économiques, sociaux et culturels de leurs populations, et ce, en dépit du fait que l’investissement direct étranger joue un rôle considérable dans le développement des pays en émergence. Notre défi ultime dans ce travail est d’explorer les diverses avenues permettant d’atteindre un juste équilibre entre les intérêts publics et la protection des investissements privés. Ceci exige un changement de paradigme qui prendra en compte les dimensions plurielles que constitue le contentieux investisseurs-États. / This study investigates the difficulties that arise when legal disputes between public bodies and foreign private entities are resolved through arbitration. For economic expediency, some Western states and developing countries are quite open to the idea of resolving legal disputes by submitting to arbitration proceedings. Other countries, such as Latin America and the Arab world, have a clearly hostile approach to state participation in arbitration proceedings, ranging from total prohibition to conditional submission. There is a clash between two schools of thought: the privatist approach that considers international arbitration to be the business community’s natural forum, as opposed to the statist approach according to which only state courts are qualified to consider legal disputes between public bodies and private entities. The underlying reasons for the increased flexibility of certain governments in favor of a liberal move towards public law arbitration are a result of the globalizing effect of the economy, which tends to decimate domestic state laws within the framework of the new global economic order. On the other hand, the social, financial and legal consequences of arbitration awards render some governments resistant to arbitration involving public entities. They brandish the right to self-determination of peoples to guard against the depletion of their resources to the detriment of the economic, social and cultural rights of their populations. This is despite the fact that foreign direct investment plays a considerable role in the development of emerging countries. The ultimate aim of this study is to explore different avenues for striking a fair balance between public interests and the protection of private investments. This requires a paradigmatic change so as to take into account the multiple dimensions of legal disputes between the state and investors.

This thesis proposes a theory of inefficient markets that uses limited rational choice as a central trait and I call it the theory of Homo comperiens. The theory limits the alternatives and states that the subjects are aware of and only allow them to have rational preference relations on the limited action set and state set, i.e. limited rationality is introduced. With limited rational choice, I drive a wedge between the market price and the intrinsic value and thus create an arbitrage market. In the theory, the subjects are allowed to gain knowledge about something that they previously were unaware of. As the discovery proceeds, the arbitrage opportunities disappear, and the market prices regress towards the intrinsic values. The theory is applied to firms and market-pricing models for a Homo comperiens environment is a result. The application of the theory to firms also leads to testable propositions that I test on a uniquely comprehensive Swedish accounting database that cover the years 1978—1994. Hypotheses are tested which argues that risk-adjusted residual rates-of-returns exist. The null hypotheses argue that risk-adjusted residual rates-of-returns do not exist (since they assume a no-arbitrage market). The null hypotheses are rejected in favor of their alternatives at a 0.0 percent significance level. The tests use approximately 22,200 observations. I also test hypotheses which argue that risk-adjusted residual rates-of-returns regress to zero with time. The null hypotheses are randomly walking risk-adjusted residual rates-of-returns, which are rejected in favor of the alternative hypotheses. The hypotheses are tested using panel regression models and goodness-of-fit tests. I reject the null hypotheses of random walk at a 0.0 percent significance level. Finally, the results are validated using out-of-sample predictions where my models compete with random-walk predictions. It finds that the absolute prediction errors from my models are between 12 to 24 percent less than the errors from the random walk model. These results are significant at a 0.0 percent significance level.

Denna uppsats är skriven inom området finansiering och behandlar fenomenet uppköp och företagsförvärv inom läkemedelsbranschen. I uppsatsen undersöker man läkemedelsbranschen och några nyckelaffärer utförda under de senaste fem åren. Syftet är att se om hypotesen om att det inte sker någon onormal överavkastning efter ett företagsförvärv eller sammanslagning till det köpande företaget gäller inom industrin. Modellen som används är ”the Arbitrage Pricing Model”, innehållande variablerna S&P 500, ^DRG, USA’s inflation och volymen av omsatta aktier på New York-börsen. Denna används för att beräkna en förväntad avkastning på aktien 48 månader efter affären. Ytterligare så används AMEX läkemedelsindex (^DRG) och Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) som måttstock för att jämföra utvecklingen av aktien under 48 månader efter affären. Hypotesen håller i tre av sex fall när indexen ^DRG och S&P 500 används som måttstock och i samtliga fall när den beräknade avkastningen används som måttstock. De beräknade estimaten visade sig vara aningen för optimistiska givet tidpunkten för affären. Marknaden hade vuxit mycket starkt under en lång tid och var på toppen just innan den föll kraftigt i början av år 2000. Inget av företagen nådde upp till de beräknade värdena. Inte heller lyckades de återhämta sig från det kraftiga fallet I marknaden till deras ursprungliga aktievärden. / This thesis is written within the field of finance and covers the Merger & Acquisition (M&A) phenomenon within the pharmaceutical industry. The purpose with this thesis is to examine the pharmaceutical industry and, with some key acquisitions done over the last five years, see if our hypothesis about no abnormal returns after an M&A to the buying firm, holds within the industry. The model used is the Arbitrage pricing model, incorporating the variables; S&P 500, ^DRG, US inflation and stock volume traded on NYSE, to calculate expected returns for a period of 48 months after the M&A’s. Furthermore we use AMEX pharmaceutical index (^DRG) and Standard & Poor 500 (S&P 500) as our base for measuring post-M&A performance 48 months after the M&A’s. The hypothesis holds three out of six times when using the indices ^DRG and S&P 500 as a benchmark and all of the times when using the calculated expected returns as benchmark. The calculated estimates turned out to be a bit too optimistic given the time of the M&A’s where the market had grown substantially over a long period and was at its peak just before it plummeted in the early 2000’s. Neither of the companies reached their estimated returns, nor did they manage to recover from the downfall to their initial stock value at the time of the merger.

<p>Denna uppsats är skriven inom området finansiering och behandlar fenomenet uppköp och företagsförvärv inom läkemedelsbranschen. I uppsatsen undersöker man läkemedelsbranschen och några nyckelaffärer utförda under de senaste fem åren. Syftet är att se om hypotesen om att det inte sker någon onormal överavkastning efter ett företagsförvärv eller sammanslagning till det köpande företaget gäller inom industrin.</p><p>Modellen som används är ”the Arbitrage Pricing Model”, innehållande variablerna S&P 500, ^DRG, USA’s inflation och volymen av omsatta aktier på New York-börsen. Denna används för att beräkna en förväntad avkastning på aktien 48 månader efter affären. Ytterligare så används AMEX läkemedelsindex (^DRG) och Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) som måttstock för att jämföra utvecklingen av aktien under 48 månader efter affären.</p><p>Hypotesen håller i tre av sex fall när indexen ^DRG och S&P 500 används som måttstock och i samtliga fall när den beräknade avkastningen används som måttstock.</p><p>De beräknade estimaten visade sig vara aningen för optimistiska givet tidpunkten för affären. Marknaden hade vuxit mycket starkt under en lång tid och var på toppen just innan den föll kraftigt i början av år 2000. Inget av företagen nådde upp till de beräknade värdena. Inte heller lyckades de återhämta sig från det kraftiga fallet I marknaden till deras ursprungliga aktievärden.</p> / <p>This thesis is written within the field of finance and covers the Merger & Acquisition (M&A) phenomenon within the pharmaceutical industry. The purpose with this thesis is to examine the pharmaceutical industry and, with some key acquisitions done over the last five years, see if our hypothesis about no abnormal returns after an M&A to the buying firm, holds within the industry.</p><p>The model used is the Arbitrage pricing model, incorporating the variables; S&P 500, ^DRG, US inflation and stock volume traded on NYSE, to calculate expected returns for a period of 48 months after the M&A’s. Furthermore we use AMEX pharmaceutical index (^DRG) and Standard & Poor 500 (S&P 500) as our base for measuring post-M&A performance 48 months after the M&A’s.</p><p>The hypothesis holds three out of six times when using the indices ^DRG and S&P 500 as a benchmark and all of the times when using the calculated expected returns as benchmark.</p><p>The calculated estimates turned out to be a bit too optimistic given the time of the M&A’s where the market had grown substantially over a long period and was at its peak just before it plummeted in the early 2000’s. Neither of the companies reached their estimated returns, nor did they manage to recover from the downfall to their initial stock value at the time of the merger.</p>

Le contexte culturel particulier à la Chine influe sur le choix du mode de résolution des différends commerciaux comportant un lien d'extranéité. Plusieurs mécanismes de préventions des litiges sont utilisés en Chine. La conciliation et médiation sont issues d'une tradition plus que millénaire en Chine, elles occupent donc un rôle important dans la résolution des différends commerciaux. La conciliation est ainsi presque toujours mise en branle antérieurement à un règlement des différends comportant des solutions contraignantes pour les parties soit un jugement ou une sentence arbitrale. L'analyse de la structure juridique chinoise nous permet de soulever les lacunes relatives à l'utilisation de ce véhicule dans la résolution d'un litige. Effectivement, l'indépendance judiciaire est défaillante ce qui a pour conséquences de préférer l'arbitrage aux tribunaux judiciaires. Malgré cette défaillance, certains investisseurs étrangers pourraient y recourir ce qui nécessite alors une connaissance minimale de ce système juridique. Le règlement des différends, en Chine, relatif à un élément d'extranéité s'effectue principalement par voie arbitrale. De ce fait, deux catégories d'arbitrage doivent alors être présentées ce qui permet d'écarter en Chine l'arbitrage ad hoc qui n'est pas expressément interdit, ni permis. Cette situation a permis à l'arbitrage institutionnel de se développer de façon considérable particulièrement par le biais de la CIETAC qui constitue ainsi l'institution de choix. Mais parallèlement à elle, il ne faut pas négliger les institutions arbitrales étrangères ayant sis sur le territoire chinois qui, de plus en plus, attirent les investisseurs étrangers, et leurs partenaires. / China's particular cultural background influences the mode of resolution that is chosen to resolve foreign-related commercial conflicts. A lot of prevention mechanisms are used in China. Conciliation and mediation come from a millenary tradition and thus have a very important place in resolving commercial conflicts. Conciliation is almost always used before any other kind of conflict resolution solution, such as legal action, is taken into consideration by both parties. By analyzing Chinese judicial structure it is possible to find some omissions in this mode of resolution. Indeed, the judicial independence is in such default that both parties will almost always prefer arbitration rather than a judgment by the court. This being said, some foreign investors can chose to go through with the judicial process but then a basic knowledge of the local judicial system becomes necessary. Therefore foreign-related conflict resolution in China is usually done by arbitration. There are two categories of arbitration that must be known. One of them is the ad hoc arbitration who is not expressly permitted or prohibited in China. This situation has been a benefit to the development of the institutional arbitration which has been developed a lot by the most important arbitration institution that is the CIETAC in China. In other hand, we cannot forget the foreign arbitration institutions in China that attract more and more foreign investors and their Chinese partners.

Une convention datée du 4 décembre 1990 régit les relations commerciales entre la France et la Qatar. Dans le cadre des relations bilatérales entre les États, les différents échanges commerciaux et les investissements entre les personnes privées et publiques sont encadrés par de nombreux textes et conventions. Ce cadre juridique doit instaurer un facteur essentiel : La confiance. Bien sûr, des mesures incitatives figurent également dans ces textes favorisant les investissements. La loyauté est le moteur de toute relation commerciale. Si elle devait être entachée cela conduirait immanquablement à une rupture du contrat. De surcroit, le droit permet-il des investissements sur la durée : la confrontation à des enjeux économiques et géostratégiques, qui peuvent surgir à tout moment, peuvent venir mettre à mal toute politique d'investissements engagée. Les investissements étrangers sont devenus un des facteurs-clé pour l'économie nationale tant pour la France que pour le Qatar. Pour ce dernier, le droit des investissements est en train de se développer, notamment pour ce qui est de la protection des investissements étrangers par la création d'un régime juridique adapté. L’État du Qatar a l'obligation de diversifier son économie et ses sources de financement limitées pour l'instant aux hydrocarbures. Cette obligation de diversification pousse les autorités qatariennes à développer rapidement un cadre juridique pour les investissements internationaux Dans ce domaine la France dispose, d'un arsenal juridique solide, et plus ancien que celui du Qatar. Il était donc intéressant de mener une étude comparée entre les deux systèmes juridiques : objet de cette thèse. / An agreement dated December 4, 1990 governs commercial relations between France and Qatar. In the context of bilateral relations between States, the various commercial exchanges and investments between private and public persons are framed by numerous texts and conventions. This legal framework must establish an essential factor : Trust. Of course, incentives are also included in these investment promotion texts. Loyalty is the driving force of any business relationship if it were to be tainted that would inevitably lead to a breach of contract. ln addition, the law allows investments over time : the confrontation with economic and geostrategic stakes, which can arise at any time, can come to undermine any committed investment policy. Foreign investment has become a key factor for the national economy for both France and Qatar. For the latter, investment law is developing, particularly with regard to the protection of foreign investment through the creation of an appropriate legal regime. The State of Qatar has an obligation to diversify its economy and its limited sources of financing for the moment to hydrocarbons. This obligation of diversification pushes the Qatari authorities to rapidly develop a legal framework for international investment ln this area France has a solid legal arsenal, and older than that of Qatar. It was therefore interesting to carry out a comparative study between the two legal systems : the subject of this thesis.

In this thesis will the question of how to construct implied volatility surfaces in a robust and arbitrage free way be investigated. To be able to know if the solutions are arbitrage free was an initial investigation about arbitrage in volatility surfaces made. From this investigation where two comprehensive theorems found. These theorems came from Roper in \cite{Roper2010}. Based on these where then two applicable arbitrage tests created. These tests came to be very important tools in the remaining thesis.The most reasonable classes of models for modeling the implied volatility surface where then investigated. It was concluded that the classes that seemed to have the best potential where the stochastic volatility models and the parametric representation models. The choice between these two classes where concluded to be based on a trade-off between simplicity and quality of the result. If it where possible to make the parametric representation models improve its result the best applicable choice would be that class. For the remaining thesis was it therefore decided to investigate this class. The parametric representation model that was chosen to be investigated where the SVI parametrization family since it seemed to have the most potential outside of its already strong foundation.The SVI parametrization family is diveded into 3 parametrizations, the raw SVI parametrization, the SSVI parametrization and the eSSVI parametrization. It was concluded that the raw SVI parametrization even though it gives very good market fits, was not robust enough to be chosen. This ment that the raw SVI parametrization would in most cases generate arbitrage in its surfaces. The SSVI model was concluded to be a very strong model compared to the raw SVI, since it was able to generate completely arbitrage free solutions with good enough results. The eSSVI is an extended parametrization of the SSVI with purpose to improve its short maturity results. It was concluded to give small improvements but with the trade of making the optimization procedure harder. It was therefore concluded that the SSVI parametrization might be the better application.To try to improve the results of the SSVI parametrization was a complementary procedure developed which got named the calibrated SSVI method. This method compared to the eSSVI parametrization would not change the parametrization but instead focusing on calibrating the initial fit that the SSVI generated. This method would heavily improve the initial fit of the SSVI surface but was less robust since it generated harder cases for the interpolation and extrapolation. / I det här examensarbetet undersöks frågan om hur man bör modellera implied volatilitetsytor på ett robust och arbitragefritt sätt. För att kunna veta om lösningarna är arbigtragefria börjades arbetet med en undersökning inom arbitrageområdet. De mest heltäckande resultatet som hittades var två theorem av Roper i \cite{Roper2010}. Baserat på dessa theorem kunde två applicerbara arbitragetester skapas som sedan kom att bli en av hörnstenarna i detta arbete. Genom att undersöka de modellklasser som verkade vara de bästa inom området valdes den parametriseringsbeskrivande modellklassen.  I denna klass valdes sedan SVI parametriseringsfamiljen för vidare undersökning eftersom det verkade vara den familj av modeller som hade störst potential att uppnå jämnvikt mellan enkel applikation samt bra resultat.  För den klassiska SVI modellen i SVI familjen drogs slutsatsen att modellen inte var tillräcklig för att kunna rekommenderas. Detta berodde på att SVI modellen i princip alltid genererade lösningar med arbitrage i. SVI modellen genererar dock väldigt bra lösningar mot marknadsdatan enskilt och kan därför vara ett bra alternativ om man bara ska modellera ett implied volatilitetssmil. SSVI modellen ansågs däremot vara ett väldigt bra alternativ. SSVI modellen genererar komplett aribragefria lösningar men har samtidigt rimligt bra marknadspassning.  För att försöka förbättra resultaten från SSVI modellen, var en kompleterande metod kallad den kalibrerade SSVI metoden skapad. Denna metod kom att förbättra marknadspassningen som SSVI modellen genererade men som resultat kom robustheten att sjunka, då interpoleringen och extrapoleringen blev svårare att genomföra arbitragefritt.

Diese Dissertation behandelt Fragen aus der stochastischen Analysis und der Finanzmathematik, die sich unter dem Begriff der Robustheit zusammenfassen lassen. Zunächst betrachten wir finanzmathematische Modelle mit Arbitragemöglichkeiten. Wir identifizieren die Abwesenheit von Arbitragemöglichkeiten der ersten Art (NA1) als minimale Eigenschaft, die in jedem finanzmathematischen Modell gelten muss, und zeigen, dass (NA1) äquivalent zur Existenz eines dominierenden lokalen Martingalmaßes ist. Als Beispiel für Prozesse, die (NA1) erfüllen, studieren wir stetige lokale Martingale, die darauf bedingt werden nie Null zu treffen. Anschließend verwenden wir eine modellfreie Version der (NA1) Eigenschaft, die es erlaubt, qualitative Eigenschaften von “typischen Preistrajektorien” zu beschreiben. Hier konstruieren wir ein pfadweises Itô-Integral. Dies deutet an, dass sich typische Preispfade als rough-path-Integratoren verwenden lassen. Nun entwickeln wir mittels Fourierentwicklungen einen alternativen Zugang zur rough-path-Theorie. Wir zerlegen das Integral in drei Operatoren mit verschiedenen Eigenschaften. So wird offensichtlich, dass Integratoren mit der Regularität der Brownschen Bewegung mit ihrer Lévy-Fläche versehen werden müssen, um ein pfadweise stetiges Integral zu erhalten. Daraufhin bemerken wir, dass die Integration zweier Funktionen gegeneinander äquivalent dazu ist, eine Funktion mit der Ableitung einer anderen (im Allgemeinen eine Distribution) zu multiplizieren. In höheren Dimensionen ist das Multiplikationsproblem jedoch allgemeiner. Wir verwenden Littlewood-Paley-Theorie, um unseren Fourier-Zugang zur rough-path-Theorie auf Funktionen mehrdimensionaler Variablen zu erweitern. Wir konstruieren einen Operator, der für Funktionen mit dem punktweisen Produkt übereinstimmt und in einer geeigneten Topologie stetig ist. Nun lassen sich stochastische partielle Differentialgleichungen lösen, die bisher aufgrund von Nichtlinearitäten nicht zugänglich waren. / This thesis deals with various problems from stochastic analysis and from mathematical finance that can best be summarized under the common theme of robustness. We begin by studying financial market models with arbitrage opportunities. We identify the weak notion of absence of arbitrage opportunities of the first kind (NA1) as the minimal property that every sensible asset price model should satisfy, and we prove that (NA1) is equivalent to the existence of a dominating local martingale. As examples of processes that satisfy (NA1) but do not admit equivalent local martingale measures, we study continuous local martingales conditioned not to hit zero. We continue by working with a model free formulation of the (NA1) property, which permits to describe qualitative properties of “typical asset price trajectories”. We construct a pathwise Itô integral for typical price paths. Our results indicate that typical price paths can be used as integrators in the theory of rough paths. Next, we use a Fourier series expansion to develop an alternative approach to rough path integration. We decompose the integral into three components with different behavior. Then it is easy to see that integrators with the regularity of the Brownian motion must be equipped with their Lévy area to obtain a pathwise continuous integral operator. We now note that integrating two functions against each other is equivalent to multiplying one with the derivative of the other, which will in general only be a distribution. In higher index dimensions however, the multiplication problem is more general. We use Littlewood-Paley theory to extend our Fourier approach from rough path integrals to multiplying functions of a multidimensional index. We construct an operator which agrees with the usual product for smooth functions, and which is continuous in a suitable topology. We apply this to solve stochastic partial differential equations that were previously difficult to access due to nonlinearities.

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This work analysis the main macro-finance models of the term structure of interest rates that determines the joint dynamics of the term structure and the macroeconomic fundamentals under no-arbitrage approach. There has been a long search during the past decades of trying to study the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and the economy, to the extent that much of recent research has combined elements of finance, monetary economics, and the macroeconomics to analyse the term structure. The central interest of the thesis is based on two important notions. Firstly, it is picking up from the important work of Ang and Piazzesi (2003) model who suggested a joint macro- finance strategy in a discrete time affine setting, by also imposing the classical Taylor (1993) rule to determine the association between yields and macroeconomic variables through monetary policy. There is a strong intuition from the Taylor rule literature that suggests that such macroeconomic variables as in inflation and real activity should matter for the interest rate, which is the monetary policy instrument. Since from this important framework, no-arbitrage macro-finance approach to the term structure of interest rates has become an active field of cross-disciplinary research between financial economics and macroeconomics. Secondly, the importance of forecasting the yield curve using the variations on the Nelson and Siegel (1987) exponential components framework to capture the dynamics of the entire yield curve into three dimensional parameters evolving dynamically. Nelson-Siegel approach is a convenient and parsimonious approximation method which has been trusted to work best for fitting and forecasting the yield curve. The work that has caught quite much of interest under this framework is the generalized arbitrage-free Nelson-Siegel macro- nance term structure model with macroeconomic fundamentals, (Li et al. (2012)), that characterises the joint dynamic interaction between yields and the macroeconomy and the dynamic relationship between bond risk-premia and the economy. According to Li et al. (2012), risk-premia is found to be closely linked to macroeconomic activities and its variations can be analysed. The approach improves the estimation and the challenges on identication of risk parameters that has been faced in recent macro-finance literature. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie werk ontleed die makro- nansiese modelle van die term struktuur van rentekoers pryse wat die gesamentlike dinamika bepaal van die term struktuur en die makroekonomiese fundamentele faktore in 'n geen arbitrage wêreld. Daar was 'n lang gesoek in afgelope dekades gewees wat probeer om die verhouding tussen die term struktuur van rentekoerse en die ekonomie te bestudeer, tot die gevolg dat baie onlangse navorsing elemente van nansies, monetêre ekonomie en die makroekonomie gekombineer het om die term struktuur te analiseer. Die sentrale belang van hierdie proefskrif is gebaseer op twee belangrike begrippe. Eerstens, dit tel op by die belangrike werk van die Ang and Piazzesi (2003) model wat 'n gesamentlike makro- nansiering strategie voorstel in 'n diskrete tyd a ene ligging, deur ook die klassieke Taylor (1993) reël om assosiasie te bepaal tussen opbrengste en makroekonomiese veranderlikes deur middel van monetêre beleid te imposeer. Daar is 'n sterk aanvoeling van die Taylor reël literatuur wat daarop dui dat sodanige makroekonomiese veranderlikes soos in asie en die werklike aktiwiteit moet saak maak vir die rentekoers, wat die monetêre beleid instrument is. Sedert hierdie belangrike raamwerk, het geen-arbitrage makro- nansies benadering tot term struktuur van rentekoerse 'n aktiewe gebied van kruis-dissiplinêre navorsing tussen nansiële ekonomie en makroekonomie geword. Tweedens, die belangrikheid van voorspelling van opbrengskromme met behulp van variasies op die Nelson and Siegel (1987) eksponensiële komponente raamwerk om dinamika van die hele opbrengskromme te vang in drie dimensionele parameters wat dinamies ontwikkel. Die Nelson-Siegel benadering is 'n gerie ike en spaarsamige benaderingsmetode wat reeds vertrou word om die beste pas te bewerkstellig en voorspelling van die opbrengskromme. Die werk wat nogal baie belangstelling ontvang het onder hierdie raamwerk is die algemene arbitrage-vrye Nelson-Siegel makro- nansiele term struktuur model met makroekonomiese grondbeginsels, (Li et al. (2012)), wat kenmerkend van die gesamentlike dinamiese interaksie tussen die opbrengs en die makroekonomie en die dinamiese verhouding tussen band risiko-premies en die ekonomie is. Volgens Li et al. (2012), word risiko-premies bevind om nou gekoppel te wees aan makroekonomiese aktiwiteite en wat se variasies ontleed kan word. Die benadering verbeter die skatting en die uitdagings van identi- sering van risiko parameters wat teegekom is in die afgelope makro- nansiese literatuur.

自1980年代以降，私有化成為跨國、跨區域的全球化現象。在各種國公營事業私有化中，電信私有化堪稱是其中最具政治意涵的項目之一，其遭遇的政治阻力也最大。有鑑於過去相關研究多半側重意識型態、制度或利益團體等單一途徑，本研究嘗試統合理念、制度與利益等途徑，以完整的政治分析架構來解釋影響電信私有化三面向－進展速度、成功機率與順暢性－的最重要條件，建構電信私有化的政治理論。 衡量理念的兩項指標為「電信私有歷史遺緒」與「執政者（黨）連任勝選幅度」。衡量制度的兩項指標為「政治權力融合」與「資本市場體質」。衡量利益的兩項指標為「首次釋股套利誘因」與「全民與員工釋股」。若研究個案同時具備這兩項指標或表現較優，意味該個案在該面向上的表現也可能較佳。若個案不具備這兩項指標或表現較遜，意味該個案在該面向上的表現也可能較差。若個案僅具備其中一項指標或僅一項指標較佳，意味該個案在該面向上的表現可能持平。 作者發現，從英國、俄羅斯與台灣電信私有化過程的實際表現而言，理念、制度與利益確實能解釋三國在電信私有化進展速度、成功機率與順暢性上的差異。換言之，若欲迅速、成功與順利推動電信私有化，端視該國的理念、制度與利益而定。雖然理念不易改變，但政府可先從制度與利益著手。制度對電信私有化政策發揮「制度承諾」的效果，而利益則扮演策略性誘因的角色，對電信私有化政策發揮「利益分配」的效果。尤其，利益分配愈普遍、愈讓全民與電信員工有利可圖，電信私有化愈能獲得市場與投資人認同，愈能化解阻力。本研究建議，政府應逆向思考，唯有在首次釋股時先「賤賣」電信資產給全民與員工，電信私有化方能順利推動。 / Privatization has become international and interregional phenomena since 1980s. Among the privatizations of all state-owned and public enterprises, telecom ones can be described as one of the most political implications, facing more political resistance than others. Given the fact that the past researches mostly focused on such single approaches as ideology, institutions and interest groups, this study tries to integrate idea, institutions and interests into a political analytical framework. This study hopes to answer the key prerequisites affecting telecom privatization’s three dimensions-speed, success and smoothness, constructing the political theory of telecom privatization. Two indicators of measuring “idea” are “telecom assets historically privately-owned” and “re-elected ruler (or ruling party)’s winning margins”. Two indicators of measuring “institutions” are “fusion of political powers” and “health of capital markets”. Two indicators of measuring “interests” are “arbitrage incentives during first shares sale” and “offering shares to individual investors and employees”. If the case is simultaneously qualified for two indicators, it means the case could perform well in that dimension, and vice versa. If the case only satisfies one indicator, it means the case could perform intermediately. The author found that as far as the results of telecom privatizations in United Kingdom, Russia and Taiwan are concerned, idea, institutions and interests actually are able to explain the difference of the three cases in terms of speed, success and smoothness. In other words, a speedy, successful and smooth telecom privatization depends on idea, institutions and interests. Although it is difficult to change idea, the governments can begin with institutions and interests. Institutions play the “commitment” role, and interests show the “allocation” effect. In particular, the more broadly interests being allocated, and the more profitable individual investors and employees obtaining from telecom privatization, the less opposition the government encountering. The study suggests that the government think of telecom privatization reversely. Telecom privatizations can be pressed ahead smoothly only with “cheaply selling” telecom assets to individual investors and employees during first shares offering. Keywords: Telecom privatization, idea, institution, interest, arbitrage.