武器在第三世界的擴散基本上是東西德冷戰下的產物，但並未隨冷戰結束 而告落幕，反而構成當今國際情勢中一股潛在的不穩定因子。一九九一年 海灣戰爭更凸顯了此一問題在國際安全事務中的重要性。 供應國籍接 受國基於各自利益及需求輸出及引進武器，加上第三世界若干國家本國武 器工業的發展，都是造成第三世界武器擴散愈演愈烈的原因。而除了傳統 武器之外，核生化武器及彈道飛彈等大規模毀滅性武器的逐漸擴散，更在 海灣戰爭之後成為國際間關切的焦點。因此在戰後要求加強對第三世界武 器擴散管制的呼籲及實際措施愈來愈多，惟其真正效果如何仍有待評估。 另外，第三世界武器擴散之勢在未來數年將更更為嚴重或趨於收歛，目前 亦難論斷。然而，如何避免使第三世界武器擴散成為影響國際局勢的不安 因素，並在同時得以兼顧第三世界國家的安全，則將是後冷戰時期世界各 國致力的目標。 本文架構係分為六章。第一章導論。第二章為第三世 界武器擴散的 現狀、特色及因素之分析。第三章為第三世界武器擴散與 區域情勢的關係，並以海灣戰爭為例加以說明。第四章為第三世界武器擴 散之管制，以供應國之輸出管制，接受國的區域性管制，及國際間的全球 性管制詳 述之。地五章係針對第三世界武器擴散的晚進發展進行分析， 指出近來助長及抑制第三世界武器擴散的成因及現象，並探討武器擴散與 第三世界安全及發展的相互關聯。地六章則為結論及簡評。文中並引用美 國武器管制暨裁軍總署、瑞典斯德哥爾摩國際和平研究所、及美國國會圖 書館國會研究處對全球及第三世界武器轉移的統計資料，來加強說明。

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. / The Persian Gulf region is, in all likelihood, going to remain crucial to American interests through the next several decades. The world depends on the petroleum reserves of the Gulf region to fuel its economic engine. The recent history of the region has been rife with conflict, and the U.S. has had to intervene militarily on several occasions to ensure its vital interests were protected. This thesis examines the strategic circumstances in the Gulf region and ways in which American political, diplomatic, and military policy can help shape the environment to conform to its interests. Several scenarios are developed which attempt to forecast the results of different environments on regional stability. The thesis reaches the conclusion that the United States must take a proactive role if its short- and long-term interests are to be protected. The short-term goal of U.S. policy must be to maintain a balance of power and regional correlation of forces which serves to deter any would-be aggressor nations. In the long run, the United States must seek a comprehensive regional peace. Various methods of achieving these goals are examined. / http://archive.org/details/strategicplanfor00ward / Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy

'Losing Control combines a glimpse behind the security screens with sharp analysis of the real global insecurities - growing inequality and unsustainability.' The New Internationalist The attacks in New York and Washington on 11th September 2001 took most of the world by surprise. It showed that, for those living in the West, the threat of terrorist attack is now very real. Maintaining control of global security has become a matter of paramount importance to all Western governments. As the war against 'terrorism' widens into a war against particular states who may have played little part in the disaster, the idea that we can maintain global security by desperately clinging to our current security paradigm becomes increasingly improbable. In Losing Control, Paul Rogers calls for a radical re-thinking of western perceptions of security that embraces a willingness to address the core issues of global insecurity. This acclaimed book has already become an essential guide for anyone who wishes to understand the current crisis, and this updated edition contains a new preface and a new chapter which address the specific problems that have arisen since the attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. Drawing on examples from around the world, Rogers analyses the legacy of the Cold War's proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; the impact of human activity on the global ecosystem; the growth of hypercapitalism and resulting poverty and insecurity; the competition for energy resources and strategic minerals; biological warfare programmes; and paramilitary actions against centres of power. The new edition brings the whole analysis right up to date, arguing persuasively that the world's elite cannot maintain control and that a far more emancipatory and sustainable approach to global security has to be developed. / Also published in Japanese

yes / The purpose of this paper is to identify how the presence, proliferation, and misuse of small arms and light weapons (SALW) negatively impact children in conflict and post-conflict societies. It examines the impact of these weapons on children's well-being, rights and development, drawing on primary research in Cambodia, Mozambique, and Colombia. It was prepared in the context of the UN Conference on the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in All Its Aspects in July 2001 and the UN Special Session on Children. Both are key opportunities to examine fully the impact of SALW on children at the international level and to agree global action to prevent and reduce the spread and misuse of the weapons that endanger the safety and undermine the potential of children. While UN agencies, international governmental organisations, human rights and development organisations have documented abuses committed against children, to date there has been no systematic analysis of the numerous ways in which SALW negatively affect the lives of children in conflict and post-conflict situations, let alone in societies at peace. However, the information that has been collected paints a terrible picture of devastation wrought by SALW. The use of small arms by and against children has both direct effects, which include death and injury, human rights abuses, displacement and psychosocial trauma, and indirect effects, which include insecurity, loss of health care, education and opportunities. These direct and indirect effects have both short and long-term impacts on the well-being, rights and development of children. This paper highlights these direct and indirect costs by drawing on the personal testimonies of youth affected by small arms in Cambodia, Mozambique, and Colombia - countries that have felt the devastating impacts of small arms and are currently at different phases of the recovery process. It is often extremely difficult to separate the impact of conflict from the impact of small arms on children but the human suffering caused by small arms is ultimately immeasurable. Indeed, the United Nations Secretary-General, Kofi Annan, has called small arms 'weapons of mass destruction' . These weapons often prolong and deepen the consequences of war and also impede post-conflict resolution and reconstruction. If many small arms remain behind after a conflict ends, they can promote insecurity, which in the extreme, may result in a return to conflict. Even in societies at peace, the presence of SALW can fuel crime and violence, and they can also be used by security forces for the facilitation of human rights violations against the civilian population. These weapons have several characteristics that make them ideal for contemporary conflicts and, in particular, the targeting and use of children in war. Many are so lightweight and simple that a child as young as eight can operate and repair them without difficulty. Equally, they can last over 40 years, meaning they can be exported from conflict to conflict through porous borders and lax national, regional, and international controls.

Yes / Small arms and light weapons (SALW) are recognised as increasing the lethality, duration and intensity of conflict with the effects of these weapons lasting for many years. The negative impacts of SALW are often greatest for the most vulnerable groups, including children. There is widespread international recognition of the negative effects of small arms on children, but efforts to control small arms and those to protect children have rarely been linked. The United Nations 2001 Conference on the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in All Its Aspects and the UN Special Session on Children provide unique opportunities to examine the complex issues surrounding small arms and their impact on children, in particular, how the presence, proliferation and misuse of small arms and light weapons affect the lives of children.

Burundi became a German protectorate in August 1884. Prior to the establishment of a protectorate, the territory was ruled by Mwamis (kings) who exercised a kind of quasi-divine system of administration. Conflictual relations were quickly dealt with within this complex structure. During the German and later Belgian colonial administrations, these political structures were redefined and a social class structure based on wealth was created. Forced class division became entrenched in the social fabric of Burundian society and the hierarchical system became even more prominent at independence in July 1962. Successive post-colonial regimes have failed to bridge the social gap. The International Community, through initiatives by the United Nations, the Africa Union, Jimmy Carter, Julius Nyerere and Nelson Mandela have attempted to resolve the political impasse. The dissertation is an attempt to reconstruct the causes of the various crises since 1962 and to reassess whether the various facilitators has succeeded in their tasks. / History / M.A.

Burundi became a German protectorate in August 1884. Prior to the establishment of a protectorate, the territory was ruled by Mwamis (kings) who exercised a kind of quasi-divine system of administration. Conflictual relations were quickly dealt with within this complex structure. During the German and later Belgian colonial administrations, these political structures were redefined and a social class structure based on wealth was created. Forced class division became entrenched in the social fabric of Burundian society and the hierarchical system became even more prominent at independence in July 1962. Successive post-colonial regimes have failed to bridge the social gap. The International Community, through initiatives by the United Nations, the Africa Union, Jimmy Carter, Julius Nyerere and Nelson Mandela have attempted to resolve the political impasse. The dissertation is an attempt to reconstruct the causes of the various crises since 1962 and to reassess whether the various facilitators has succeeded in their tasks. / History / M.A.

yes / The 1990s witnessed a change in the way wars were fought as the amount of available weaponry increased and the types of actors engaged in warfare multiplied. The opening up of the international arms trade, in particular with new buyers and more channels of supply, has raised concerns about who purchases weapons and for what use. Afeature of this changing nature of conflict has been the continuing, if not growing, presence of mercenaries and the emergence of private companies contracted to provide military and security services. These range from logistical support and training to advice and procurement of arms and on-the-ground intervention. This briefing highlights how the activities of mercenaries and private military and security companies can contribute to small arms proliferation and misuse and examines steps the international community can take at the UN Small Arms Conference and elsewhere to effectively combat mercenarism and regulate the activities of private military and security companies. The role played by these companies relates not only to provisions contained in the contracts they sign with their clients to provide large amounts of weaponry, but also how the military and security services and training that they provide contributes to the demand for weapons in the regions where they operate. There are a number of ways in which mercenaries and private military and security companies are involved in small arms proliferation. These include: l Arms brokering and transportation activities l Violations of UN arms embargoes l Impact on human rights and humanitarian law l Driving demand for small arms Various measures already exist to ban the activities of mercenaries and regulate some of the activities of private military and security companies either through national legislation or international agreements. However, there is concern these efforts are neither comprehensive nor accepted widely enough to effectively control the activities of mercenaries and private military and security companies.

yes / It is now widely recognised that, to be successful, efforts towards preventing and combating the illicit trade in SALW will require a multifaceted approach which simultaneously tackles the demand for and the supply of these weapons. In this regard, developing and promoting international norms, standards and mechanisms for the effective removal of illicit weapons from circulation is a major challenge for the UN Conference on the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in All Its Aspects. There are two distinct scenarios within which weapons collection initiatives operate: the peace-time scenario, where efforts are focused on reducing criminal violence; and the postconflict scenario, where efforts are focused on the objective of conflict prevention through peace-building.