My thesis titled The Monetary Policy of the Central Bank of Armenia starts with characteristics of Armenia, where I focus on economic attributes of the country, international conflicts and their effects on Armenia, population development, poverty and corruption. The second part is focused on economic development of Armenia, the country's employment rate, particular items of the balance of payments and international trade. Furthermore, this part also consists of information related to the development of Armenian currency and the country's foreign debt. The third, significant part of my thesis deals with the Central Bank of Armenia and Armenia's financial system, concentrating mainly on history and the present of the subject central bank. Later in this part, I inquire into Armenia's monetary policy, where I focus on its applied transmission mechanisms and the CBA's instruments.The final part of this thesis is about what effects the CBA has on Armenia's economic development. I look into effects of monetary policy on price level development and meeting the inflation objectives. The conclusion part summarizes and gathers all pieces of information I have obtained by studying numerous literature resources and conducting personal interviews with several representatives of the Armenian banking system.This part also summarizes benefits of the CBA and its effects on economic development of Armenia, credibility evaluation and effectiveness in the objectives.

[pt] Motivados pela posição de destaque do real brasileiro entre uma das moedas mais depreciadas em relação aos seus pares emergentes em meados de 2020, potencialmente fomentada pela expressiva evasão de capitais observada no decorrer da pandemia COVID-19 que culminou com um déficit no mercado cambial, realizamos previsões um trimestre a frente para os fluxos de capitais líquidos para o Brasil através de técnicas de machine learning, utilizando modelos de regularização para seleção das variáveis importantes. Os fluxos são obtidos a partir de dados trimestrais do balanço de pagamentos, englobando 2004:T1 a 2021:T1. Os modelos propostos, tanto LASSO quanto adaLASSO + OLS, foram capazes de gerar previsões fora da amostra melhores que o modelo de benchmark, AR. Apesar disso, quando comparados entre si, não podemos rejeitar a hipótese nula de que os modelos propostos possuem a mesma precisão de previsão. / [en] Motivated by the prominent position of the Brazilian real among the most depreciated currencies in comparison with its emerging peers in mid-2020, potentially fueled by the significant capital outflow observed during the COVID19 pandemic that resulted in a deficit in the foreign exchange market, we make one quarter-ahead forecast for net capital flows to Brazil through machine learning techniques, using shrinkage methods to select important variables. These flows are computed from quarterly balance of payments data from 2004:Q1 to 2021:Q1. The proposed models, both LASSO and adaLASSO + OLS, were able to generate better out-of-sample forecasts than the benchmark model, AR. Nevertheless, when compared to each other, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the proposed models have the same forecast accuracy.

本論文共一冊，約十萬字，分七章廿四節，內容係以中共的「社會主義計劃經濟制度 」及對外經濟政策為基礎，深入探討其外匯管理制度。 在「社會主義計劃經濟制度」下，中共當局恆常透過經濟計劃，對內部經濟活動維持 全面性的控管。中共統治地區的經濟運作，因而在世界經濟體系中保持一定的獨立性 ，相互依存的危彩淡薄。一九七八年年底以後，中共展開經濟體制改革，積極進行對 外經濟交流，目的在引進外部「一切可用」的資源，加速內部經濟發展，但訌劃經濟 基本架構並未隨之脫胎換骨，外匯管理制度亦有其不可變的核心內容。 本論文引用「國際收支平衡表」（Balance of Payments） 的模式為論述骨幹，主要 內容包括﹕中共管理外匯之理論架構、經營帳收支管理、資本帳收支管理、人民幣對 外之匯率制度，以及中共外匯管理制度之績效評估。論文最後，對該制度的未來演進 路徑，亦有所探討。 本論文儘量從經濟的角度，對中共外匯管理制度進行剖析，但必要時仍酌引政治因素 作論證，此乃中共為「高度的意識型態統治」性質政權之故也

隨著中國在國際經濟與戰略地位的竄升，包括利率與匯率在內的中國貨幣當局政策作為不再僅僅只是該國內部事務而已，也會進一步影響到國際經濟的日常運行。本研究通過質性研究與量化研究交互運用的方式，詳盡分析2002年至2007年中國國際收支失衡對其貨幣政策自主性的影響；本研究從三層次分析中國貨幣政策自主性，包括中國外匯占款對其基礎貨幣發行的直接影響、中國貨幣當局各種貨幣政策工具之沖銷基礎貨幣效率、中國行政調控對降低未完全沖銷的基礎貨幣之於總體經濟暨資產市場的影響。本研究發現中國國際收支的持續順差業已嚴重侵蝕到中國貨幣當局所有三個層次的政策自主性；並且，在可預見的未來，只要中國政府不改變當前人民幣匯率體制與外匯管理制度，則中國貨幣當局可能會窮於應付這超額貨幣供給所衍生出的經濟失衡與泡沫化的危機。 / With the rapid rise of China’s international economic and strategic status, China’s monetary policy measures, including interest rates and foreign exchange rates, will not only be merely China’s internal affairs but also further influence international economic daily operation. This study comprehensively analyzes the impact of the disequilibrium of China’s balance of payments between 2002-2007 on its monetary policy autonomy through qualitative methodology and quantitative methodology. This study analyzes China’s monetary policy autonomy in three levels: the direct impact of China’s funds outstanding for foreign exchange on China’s base money supply, the effectiveness of China’s monetary policy instruments on the sterilization of its base money, the effectiveness of China’s administrative macroeconomic adjustment and control for reducing its non-sterilized base money supply on its macroeconomic and asset markets. This study concludes the continuous surplus of China’s balance of payments has seriously undermined China’s monetary policy autonomy in all three levels; in addition, in the foreseeable future, as long as the Chinese government would not change the current exchange rate regime and the mechanism of foreign exchange management, then China’s monetary authorities might be constantly swamped with the crises of economic disequilibrium and bubble stemmed from its monetary oversupply.

A tese trata da política econômica internacional desenvolvida pelo govêrno brasileiro, composta pela política de comércio exterior, a política cambial e tarifária, e o balanço de pagamentos, que constituem pilares fundamentais da política de estabilização do PAEG. A política econômica externa, além de contribuir para a estabilidade e o equilíbrio das contas externas, tentou criar as condições para realização de um novo modelo de crescimento, baseado na promoção de exportações e na abertura da economia aos fluxos de comércio e de investimento. A cooperação financeira internacional e a resolução do endividamento externo passaram a ser considerados questões estratégicas para o êxito deste novo modelo. Sem o aval e os recursos do FMI e dos organismos multilaterais dificilmente o plano de estabilização teria sobrevivido. / This dissertation is about the international economic policy developed by the Brazilian Government. It includes the external trade policy, the exchange rate policy and tariffs trade as well as the balance of payments, that were the basic points of the economic stabilization policy that was carried on during the PAEG – Plano de Ação Econômica do Governo. The external economic policy has helped to reach the goal of the Brazilian economy stabilization as well as has created the conditions for the launching of a new economic growth model, based upon the exports and the opening of the country to the international investment flows. The questions concerning the international finance cooperation and the solution of the external debt problem were considered to be strategic issues for achieving the success of this new economic model. The stabilization program would not be succeeded without the help from the IMF and other multilateral agencies.

Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar o Plano Real e o Balanço de Pagamentos do Brasil. O que se pretende verificar é se o Plano Real é consentâneo ao sistema de Direito Brasileiro. Para tanto, a análise foi dividida em três blocos. No primeiro, que compreende os Capítulos I e II, foram apresentadas noções indispensáveis para a compreensão do assunto: de preço, poder de compra da moeda e taxa de câmbio. Na oportunidade, também se esclareceu que o Plano Real tinha como principal objetivo combater a inflação no país causada, segundo seus idealizadores, pela indexação da economia e pelo déficit público. A partir deste diagnóstico, o Plano Real é elaborado com base em três principais medidas: ajuste fiscal, criação da Unidade Real de Valor (URV) e adoção de uma âncora cambial. O segundo bloco deste trabalho, integrado pelos Capítulos III a V, vai esmiuçar esta última medida e seus efeitos, bem como as alterações legislativas provocadas pelo Plano Real (principalmente Emendas Constitucionais nº 5 a 9, todas de 1995, e Lei nº 9.069/1995). Aqui também se demonstrará como o Plano Real consagrou a ideologia preconizada pelo Consenso de Washington. No último bloco, composto pelo Capítulo VI, são analisados os efeitos provocados no nível de endividamento público decorrentes das medidas adotadas pelo Plano Real e a alteração das regras jurídicas que tratam da dívida pública que vieram ao encontro dele (principalmente Lei Complementar n° 101/2000). Neste ponto, a partir de um estudo sobre os princípios jurídicos que regem a atividade da administração pública, concluímos que o sistema jurídico brasileiro oferece fundamento suficiente para superação das regras jurídicas (e ideologia) adotadas no país com o advento do Plano Real. / The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the Real Plan, the Brazilian Balance of Payments and if the Real Plan is supported by the Brazilian law system. The analysis is divided into three blocks. First, in Chapters I and II, some indispensable concepts are presented: price, purchasing power of money and exchange rate. On the occasion, it was clarified that the Real Plan had as its main objective fight inflation in the country caused by, according to its creators, the indexation of the economy and the public deficit. Based on that diagnosis, the Real Plan counted on three measures: fiscal adjustment, creation of the Real Value Unit (URV) and adoption of a fixed exchange rate. The second block, through Chapters III to V, scrutinizes the latter measure and its effects, as well as legislative changes brought by the Real Plan (mainly Constitutional Amendments 5-9, all of 1995, and Law nº 9.069/1995). It also demonstrates that the Real Plan established the ideology advocated by the Washington Consensus. In the final section, composed of Chapter VI, the effects of Real Plan on public debt and the change of legal rules on that matter (mainly Law nº 101/2000) are analyzed. At this point, from a study of constitutional principles, we conclude that the Brazilian legal system provides sufficient basis to overcome the legal rules (and ideology) adopted in the country with the advent of the Real Plan.

Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar o Plano Real e o Balanço de Pagamentos do Brasil. O que se pretende verificar é se o Plano Real é consentâneo ao sistema de Direito Brasileiro. Para tanto, a análise foi dividida em três blocos. No primeiro, que compreende os Capítulos I e II, foram apresentadas noções indispensáveis para a compreensão do assunto: de preço, poder de compra da moeda e taxa de câmbio. Na oportunidade, também se esclareceu que o Plano Real tinha como principal objetivo combater a inflação no país causada, segundo seus idealizadores, pela indexação da economia e pelo déficit público. A partir deste diagnóstico, o Plano Real é elaborado com base em três principais medidas: ajuste fiscal, criação da Unidade Real de Valor (URV) e adoção de uma âncora cambial. O segundo bloco deste trabalho, integrado pelos Capítulos III a V, vai esmiuçar esta última medida e seus efeitos, bem como as alterações legislativas provocadas pelo Plano Real (principalmente Emendas Constitucionais nº 5 a 9, todas de 1995, e Lei nº 9.069/1995). Aqui também se demonstrará como o Plano Real consagrou a ideologia preconizada pelo Consenso de Washington. No último bloco, composto pelo Capítulo VI, são analisados os efeitos provocados no nível de endividamento público decorrentes das medidas adotadas pelo Plano Real e a alteração das regras jurídicas que tratam da dívida pública que vieram ao encontro dele (principalmente Lei Complementar n° 101/2000). Neste ponto, a partir de um estudo sobre os princípios jurídicos que regem a atividade da administração pública, concluímos que o sistema jurídico brasileiro oferece fundamento suficiente para superação das regras jurídicas (e ideologia) adotadas no país com o advento do Plano Real. / The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the Real Plan, the Brazilian Balance of Payments and if the Real Plan is supported by the Brazilian law system. The analysis is divided into three blocks. First, in Chapters I and II, some indispensable concepts are presented: price, purchasing power of money and exchange rate. On the occasion, it was clarified that the Real Plan had as its main objective fight inflation in the country caused by, according to its creators, the indexation of the economy and the public deficit. Based on that diagnosis, the Real Plan counted on three measures: fiscal adjustment, creation of the Real Value Unit (URV) and adoption of a fixed exchange rate. The second block, through Chapters III to V, scrutinizes the latter measure and its effects, as well as legislative changes brought by the Real Plan (mainly Constitutional Amendments 5-9, all of 1995, and Law nº 9.069/1995). It also demonstrates that the Real Plan established the ideology advocated by the Washington Consensus. In the final section, composed of Chapter VI, the effects of Real Plan on public debt and the change of legal rules on that matter (mainly Law nº 101/2000) are analyzed. At this point, from a study of constitutional principles, we conclude that the Brazilian legal system provides sufficient basis to overcome the legal rules (and ideology) adopted in the country with the advent of the Real Plan.

The empirical results reached in this thesis contradict the traditional theoretical view of money as being exogenously introduced into an economy as a medium of exchange intended to reduce the transactions costs associated with barter. Instead money was endogenously created in the form of credit. Thus, the long run neutrality of money also is called into question. The varying quality of different kinds of money reflects the demand for them. If legal tender was of higher quality than private promissary notes, it was because the former were in greater demand. Concisely put, the market determines the value, and therefore the quality, of various kinds of money. The principal problem addressed in this thesis is how, during the expansive nineteenth century, it was possible to satisfy the ever growing need for credit and means of payment without sacrificing the fixed exchange rate. Particular attention is paid to the private note issuing banks, the so called Enskilda banks, that dominated the Swedish banking system throughout the nineteenth century. In addition to their note issuing, the Enskilda banks were characterized by unlimited owner liability. An examination of the ongoing political process from a rational choice perspective, indicates that initially the concept of note issuing Enskilda banks enjoyed wide spread support. They were considered to be a reasonable response to the problem of establishing a commercial banking system in an illiquid economy. The distribution of political and economic power in favor of the Crown and the Nobility included their control over the issuance of bank charters. The monopolistic policy they followed in this regard, however, resulted in growing hostility towards these. As a result, starting in the middle 1860's, a more liberal attitude towards the establishment of banks began to prevail. By the end of the nineteenth century, various political interest were able to engineer the revocation of the Enskilda banks’ note issuing rights. The special characteristics of the Enskilda banks, the right to issue bank notes and the unlimited liability of their owners, have caused them to be perceived as outdated, at least once Joint Stock banks were introduced. In contrast to the Enskilda banks, these were unable to issue notes but instead provided their owners with limited liability. The thesis demonstrates that, given the initial illiquidity of the Swedish economy, the Enskilda banks actually were the more efficient alternative. Indeed, the note issuing privileges of the Enskilda banks became one of the principal factors behind the development of liquid domestic capital markets. An empirical study that includes the most basic constraints faced by the nineteenth century Swedish economy, the demands of the specie standard and the general shortages of reliable means of payment and of credit, reveals that the Enskilda bank system can not, strictly speaking, be considered an example of free banking. Instead of holding specie reserves, the Enskilda banks backed their notes with central bank (Riksbank) notes. This was not because the public preferred Enskilda bank to Riksbank notes.  Rather it was the result of a monetary adverse selection process; Gresham’s Law.  Previously utilized, lower quality, means of payment were replaced by Enskilda bank notes. By accepting some of the discount costs, the Enskilda banks made their notes circulate at par with Riksbank notes. Thus a domestic specie exchange system was created. The note issuance of the Enskilda banks paved the way for the deposit based commercial banking system that followed, and it was essential for the monetization of the economy that occurred during the late 1860's. The long run expansion of the money supply was unrelated to growth in Riksbank reserves, specie holdings or the monetary base. Other countries operating under the specie standard also experienced monetary growth, indicating that the specie standard actually was a system of credit. Money supply, as measured in terms of Riksbank and Enskilda bank notes held by the public, eventually reflected the level of output (GDP).  VAR-tests indicated that annual changes in the level of Riksbank reserves preceded changes in the money supply which, in turn, preceded changes in the level of prices, thus supporting the price quantity theory. These results are summarized in a regression model that estimates domestic price movements as a function of current changes in international prices and GDP and of lagged changes in domestic prices and the money supply. The final chapter is an empirical analysis of the support provided to the Swedish banking system during the most severe financial crises of the nineteenth century.  Maintaining the specie standard was over riding goal of the Riksbank. In times of crises, this concern prevented the Bank from supporting the banking system in accord with the classical lender of last resort recipe; to inject liquidity and briefly suspend convertibility. The thesis argues that in a transitional economy, such as that of nineteenth century Sweden, the fixed exchange rate makes it impossible in times of crisis to support the banks at all costs. Doing so might well convert a banking crisis into a currency crisis. Indeed, this is exactly what has happened in various countries on several occasions during the late twentieth century. Instead the appropriate procedure for acting as lender of last resort in a transitional economy is to initially support the banks, but only as long as central bank reserves are not exhausted. Should the seriousness of the crisis make this insufficient, the authorities should then proceed to import high powered money as a way of supplementing their reserves. The possibility that such action will be needed makes it particularly important that the country’s public finances be kept in good order. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2003. Sammanfattning på engelska</p>

My research seeks to explain the evolution of trade policy debates among American business leaders between World War I and the 1960s. The key finding is that a new framework for discussing trade policy was widely adopted after the United States became a creditor nation during World War I. This framework related tariffs and imports to exports, international lending and American foreign policy. High levels of imports ceased to be a threat and instead came to be seen as a pre-requisite for high levels of exports and a well-functioning global economy; raising the levels of imports, including through tariff cuts, became a strategy for providing American allies and debtors with dollar revenues. This new insight into the political economy of American foreign economic policy is based on new evidence from the archival records of business associations and a wide range of other primary and secondary sources. In addition to bringing to light new evidence, my research also addresses some of the gaps that still exist in the literature on the history of the foreign economic policy of the United States, the Cold War and transatlantic relations.

A tese trata da política econômica internacional desenvolvida pelo govêrno brasileiro, composta pela política de comércio exterior, a política cambial e tarifária, e o balanço de pagamentos, que constituem pilares fundamentais da política de estabilização do PAEG. A política econômica externa, além de contribuir para a estabilidade e o equilíbrio das contas externas, tentou criar as condições para realização de um novo modelo de crescimento, baseado na promoção de exportações e na abertura da economia aos fluxos de comércio e de investimento. A cooperação financeira internacional e a resolução do endividamento externo passaram a ser considerados questões estratégicas para o êxito deste novo modelo. Sem o aval e os recursos do FMI e dos organismos multilaterais dificilmente o plano de estabilização teria sobrevivido. / This dissertation is about the international economic policy developed by the Brazilian Government. It includes the external trade policy, the exchange rate policy and tariffs trade as well as the balance of payments, that were the basic points of the economic stabilization policy that was carried on during the PAEG – Plano de Ação Econômica do Governo. The external economic policy has helped to reach the goal of the Brazilian economy stabilization as well as has created the conditions for the launching of a new economic growth model, based upon the exports and the opening of the country to the international investment flows. The questions concerning the international finance cooperation and the solution of the external debt problem were considered to be strategic issues for achieving the success of this new economic model. The stabilization program would not be succeeded without the help from the IMF and other multilateral agencies.