The economic viability of farming in Saskatchewan is eroding and the future of the industry is becoming uncertain given the current economic state. The combination of low commodity prices, increasing input and transportation costs, ongoing drought conditions, inadequate safety net programs, and environmental concerns resulting from agricultural greenhouse gas emissions has led to this uncertainty. One possible solution for producers to help overcome or at least minimize the negative trends occurring in agriculture, which is proposed, is afforestation of agricultural land. Afforestation not only provides net private benefits of timber income but external benefits, including carbon sequestration, and preservation of native forests, which provides areas for hunting, wildlife viewing, and conservation of land. The economic efficiency of afforestation was examined using a transitional benefit cost framework for both crop and pasture systems. This allowed for both private and social perspectives, along with the opportunity costs, to be included and the economic efficiency of afforestation from each perspective was determined. The potential conversion of agricultural land to afforestation was based solely on economic efficiency and assumed producers demonstrated an economically rational decision making process. The results from the benefit cost analysis indicated that the net private benefits from afforestation were never significant enough to warrant the conversion of either crop or pasture systems to afforestation. The results did however show that the net social benefits from afforestation would warrant the conversion of crop systems to afforestation for a limited number of situations. Crop systems on physically marginal land with a carbon payment of either $22.58 or $33.55 tonne of C would warrant conversion to afforestation, using either a single or infinite rotation. The infinite rotation resulted in a larger allocation of land to afforestation. The role afforestation can play in helping producers diversify and increase income levels is limited. The low price paid for timber and the high costs of establishment for afforestation are the main constraints. In order for afforestation to become economically efficient on a large scale the constraints facing producers needs to be addressed.

The economic viability of farming in Saskatchewan is eroding and the future of the industry is becoming uncertain given the current economic state. The combination of low commodity prices, increasing input and transportation costs, ongoing drought conditions, inadequate safety net programs, and environmental concerns resulting from agricultural greenhouse gas emissions has led to this uncertainty. One possible solution for producers to help overcome or at least minimize the negative trends occurring in agriculture, which is proposed, is afforestation of agricultural land. Afforestation not only provides net private benefits of timber income but external benefits, including carbon sequestration, and preservation of native forests, which provides areas for hunting, wildlife viewing, and conservation of land. The economic efficiency of afforestation was examined using a transitional benefit cost framework for both crop and pasture systems. This allowed for both private and social perspectives, along with the opportunity costs, to be included and the economic efficiency of afforestation from each perspective was determined. The potential conversion of agricultural land to afforestation was based solely on economic efficiency and assumed producers demonstrated an economically rational decision making process. The results from the benefit cost analysis indicated that the net private benefits from afforestation were never significant enough to warrant the conversion of either crop or pasture systems to afforestation. The results did however show that the net social benefits from afforestation would warrant the conversion of crop systems to afforestation for a limited number of situations. Crop systems on physically marginal land with a carbon payment of either $22.58 or $33.55 tonne of C would warrant conversion to afforestation, using either a single or infinite rotation. The infinite rotation resulted in a larger allocation of land to afforestation. The role afforestation can play in helping producers diversify and increase income levels is limited. The low price paid for timber and the high costs of establishment for afforestation are the main constraints. In order for afforestation to become economically efficient on a large scale the constraints facing producers needs to be addressed.

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) lists four different methods for determining the change in crash frequency in order of reliability. Currently, the Utah Department of Transportation (UDOT) uses the fourth reliable method. The goal of this research was to develop a tool that the most reliable method mentioned in the HSM could be used to perform life-cycle benefit-cost analyses. A spreadsheet program was built that performs the HSM's Part C Predictive Method for 11 different roadway segment types mentioned in HSM using Excel macros and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) programming. Intersections were not included in this spreadsheet program as they were not included in the Utah Crash Prediction Model (UCPM) or the Utah Crash Severity Model (UCSM) at the time of this research. The methodology for analysis was set up to become part of the use of the models in selecting countermeasures. The concept and spreadsheet layout are discussed using the rural two-lane two-way (TLTW) highway spreadsheet as an example. Three examples are presented in this thesis, which are a case of rural TLTW highway, a case of five-lane urban arterial with a two-way left-turn lane (TWLTL), and a case of a freeway segment, each with two selected countermeasures to compare their benefit-cost ratios (BCRs). One important aspect associated with life-cycle benefit-cost analysis of safety related improvements is the cost of countermeasures. The spreadsheets developed in this research can predict the benefits associated with a countermeasure following the methods found in the HSM; however, it does not include a module to estimate costs associated with a countermeasure to be selected because costs of countermeasures are dependent on the way such improvements are included in construction contracts. The engineer should seek guidance from the cost estimate expert within the agency or outside consultants when determining the project costs.

Rural Iowa towns often lack flood mitigation because of a lack of resources and inability to compete for federal assistance funds. The Federal Emergency Management Agency relies on a benefit-cost analysis which produces benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) for proposed projects to determine which communities receive funding, with an emphasis on the economic BCR, which compares potential future benefits with estimated capital costs. The FEMA requirement for an economic BCR is at least 0.75. The economic BCRs for mitigation projects in rural towns are often lower compared to those in urban centers due lower potential future benefits from lower building count and potential exposure. Here we use a multijurisdictional approach which analyzes flood mitigation at a watershed scale to join upstream agricultural potential future benefits with downstream potential avoided benefits in rural towns. We predicted BCRs of simulated flood retention wetlands using HAZUS-MH to find the potential future benefits a range of estimated capital costs via a percent reduction approach and a targeted peak flow approach to calculating wetland effects on peak flow. The percent reduction approach generated BCRs of over 0.75 in the Mud Creek watershed for estimated capital costs per wetland up to $177,400. However, the simulated flood retention wetlands did not generate BCRs high enough to meet the minimum requirement in the Hinkle Creek watershed by itself. However, a multijurisdictional approach is not limited to each watershed individually. When the simulated flood retention wetland projects in each watershed were combined, the BCRs were high enough to meet the FEMA requirement. The combined BCRs were over 0.75 for estimated capital costs up to $143,300. The targeted peak flow approach included BCRs which account for dry and wet antecedent soil moisture conditions and minimum, maximum and average peak flow change scenarios. The scenarios with dry antecedent soil moisture conditions created BCRs higher than wet antecedent soil moisture conditions. Further, the maximum peak change scenarios generated BCRs higher than average peak change scenarios, which in turn generated higher BCRs than the minimum peak change scenarios. In the Mud Creek watershed, the only scenario to generate BCRs above 0.75 for any part of the range of estimated capital costs was the maximum peak change scenario under dry antecedent soil moisture conditions. However, the maximum and average peak change scenarios under dry antecedent soil moisture conditions and the maximum peak change scenario under wet soil moisture conditions generated BCRs over 0.75 in the Hinkle Creek watershed. When the simulated flood retention wetland projects for both watersheds were combined, only the maximum peak change scenario under dry antecedent soil moisture conditions generated BCRs above 0.75. We found that a multijurisdictional approach is a viable method for rural watersheds to analyze potential flood mitigation projects to help increase their BCRs.

空氣污染防制費自民國84年7月1日開徵，希望能藉由空污費的徵收來減少污染的排放量，同時能透過空氣污染防制費的有效運用來改善空氣品質，而本文僅針對空氣污染防制迄今，對家計部門所產生的清潔效益進行估算。 首先，利用家計部門生產函數建立理論模型，接著以錢玉蘭、蕭代基(1996)，「台灣大都會地區改善空氣品質之經濟效益評估與酸雨風險認知調查」的問卷調查資料為樣本，對超對數及近似理想需求函數的實證模型進行配適比較。結果顯示：近似理想需求函數配適之判定係數較高，符合加總性、齊次性及對稱性限制條件，而價格變數與屬性變數之估計結果亦相當合理，因此，推論近似理想需求函數為解釋台灣清潔需求型態的較適模型。 由近似理想需求函數所推估之85及86會計年度空污費執行所帶來台灣地區家戶清潔效益分別為每戶2101元及651元，加總每戶效益後，台灣地區總清潔效益分別為128億元及39億元，與空污費實際執行的歲出相較，推論空污費執行迄今之效益大於成本。並由推算之各都會地區補償變量性質，建議政府以效率的觀點使用空氣污染防制費時，應將防制資源優先使用於改善都市化程度愈高，人口數愈多，污染程度愈嚴重地區的空氣品質。 / The Environmental Protection Agency of Taiwan launched the Air Pollution Emission Fees Program to levy emission fees on petroleum products, July 1, 1995. The purpose of such a program is to provide economic incentives to change peoples' behavior towards the consumption of fuels and to collect fees to be used for the improvement of air quahty. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of the emission fees program on household cleanness. In order to achieve this objective, we first employ a household production function in accordance with the theory of consumption behavior. Two models are utilized in this study, i.e., the translog firnction model and the almost ideal demand function model. We utilize cross-section data to fit into these models and find that the almost ideal demand model has more significant explanatory power. Therefore, we infer that this model is a better functional form for expressing the cleanness behavior of Taiwan's households. The estimated results of the total benefits for household cleanness resulting from the implementation of air pollution emission fees are NT$12.8 and NT$3.9 bilhon for the accounting years of 1996 and 1997, respectively. By comparing expenditure from the air pollution fees, which were designated for the purpose of improving air quality, i.e., NT$4.2 and NTS3.3 billion for the respective years 1996 and 1997, we can see that the pollution control program is conformable with the benefit-cost principle. Finally, based on the empirical results, pohcy recommendations are presented in the conclusion.

The appraisal or the feasibility of an engineering venture or an investment relies on the estimation of the analysis parameters, which usually occur in the future. All such estimates have an element of uncertainty which needs to be acknowledged. Traditional methods of engineering economic or discounted cash flow analysis, for example, net present value, benefit/cost ratio, internal rate of return and payback period, do not take into account the uncertainty associated with the analysis parameters. To this end, the present study proposes a number of evaluation methodologies in order to deal with the inherent uncertainty. The present study uses second-order moment thinking to determine the expected value and the variance of feasibility measures, net present value, benefit/cost ratio, internal rate of return and payback period. A venture???s feasibility is defined in this study as the probability of the total benefit exceeding the total cost, the probability of the internal rate of return being greater than a specified interest rate, or the probability of the payback period being less than a specified time period. However, the determination of the variance of these measures requires the estimation of the correlation coefficients between the benefits and costs. The task of estimating correlation coefficients is difficult without making certain assumptions. An examination of the degree of correlation is presented which can be used for guidance in feasibility studies. The present study also gives a theoretical formulation for feasibility for single and multiple ventures and supports this with representative results based on case studies. Such a formulation resolves which combination of ventures is best from a viewpoint of feasibility. Additionally, venture appraisal is modelled as a system with Markov properties. When analysis parameters such as the interest rate, benefits and costs are defined as states, with the associated transition probabilities from one period of time to another, Markov chains can be used to estimate a venture???s feasibility. This provides further insight into the influence of variability in the analysis parameters, and provides the solution to the problem of the determination of the optimal policy, which maximises the expected net present value or the venture's feasibility over its life span. Markov chains provide further insights into the effect of the inter-temporal correlation coefficients on the variance of the net present value. When each state is taken to represent a different value of inter-temporal correlation coefficient, and consequently a different variance, it is possible to evaluate the venture's expected variance and the variance of the variance of the net present value, according to the transition probabilities associated with each state.

This paper examines formal wilderness designation and is presented in two parts. The first section offers a general classification and comprehensive review of the benefit and cost variables associated with wilderness designation and management. The second section investigates recreation use, which society has historically perceived to be the highest valued element in the network of wilderness benefits. Variables associated with the benefits of wilderness designation are presented under three major categories: 1) naturalness preservation, 2) solitude or primitive and unconfined types of recreation, and 3) special features of scientific, educational, scenic, or historic value. Costs attributed to wilderness designation are presented under two major categories: 1) administration/general management costs and 2) opportunity costs. The second section of this thesis establishes growth rate comparisons of wilderness and non-wilderness recreation use on United States Forest Service lands in Utah, the Intermountain Region, and the overall national Forest Service system from 1967 to 1986. The High Uintas Wilderness area was also analyzed for its use over the same twenty-year period. Data used to measure recreational use at these levels was obtained from United States Forest Service Recreation Information Management records and are measured in recreational visitor days. Growth rate comparisons are measured with respect to recreation use in general terms as well as on a per acre basis at all levels examined. Because of general trend discrepancies in recreation use over the twenty-year study period, growth rate estimates of recreation use at all levels are also measured with respect to two separate time periods--1967 to 1976 and 1977 to 1986. This analysis shows that non-wilderness/ primitive recreation use per acre increased during the last decade at all levels examined, whereas wilderness/primitive .recreation use per acre showed marked declines during the same period. Growth rate estimates established on a per acre basis provide a general indication of the marginal value of wilderness and non-wilderness recreation use. This thesis shows that, with respect to recreation use, marginal utility has diminished in designated wilderness since 1977. In contrast, this research also infers that the marginal value for non-wilderness recreation use has increased. These findings suggest that, from a recreation perspective, adding wilderness areas to the National Wilderness Predervation System is unwarranted.

Transport infrastructure investment decision making is typically based on a range of inputs such as social, environmental and economic factors. The benefit cost ratio (BCR), a measure of economic efficiency (“value for money”) determined through cost benefit analysis (CBA), is dependent on accurate estimates of the various option costs and net social benefits such as reductions in travel time, accidents, and vehicle operating costs. However, most evaluations are deterministic procedures using point estimates for the inputs and producing point estimates for the outputs. Transport planners have primarily focused on the cost risks and treat risk through sensitivity testing. Probabilistic risk analysis techniques are available which could provide more information about the statistical confidence of the economic evaluation outputs. This research project report investigated how risk and uncertainty are dealt with in the literature and guidelines. The treatment of uncertainty in the Nelson Arterial Traffic Study (ATS) was reviewed and an opportunity to apply risk analysis to develop probabilities of sea level rise impacting on the coastal road options was identified. A simplified transport model and economic evaluation case study based on the ATS was developed in Excel to enable the application of @RISK Monte Carlo simulation software. The simplifications mean that the results are not comparable with the ATS. Seven input variables and their likely distributions were defined for simulation based on the literature review. The simulation of seven variables, five worksheets, and 10,000 iterations takes about 30 seconds of computation time. The input variables in rank order of influence on the BCR were capital cost, car mode share, unit vehicle operating cost, basic employment forecast growth rate, and unit value of time cost. The deterministically derived BCR of 0.75 is associated with a 50% chance that the BCR will be less than 0.6, although this probability is partly based on some statistical parameters without an empirical basis. In practice, probability distribution fitting to appropriate datasets should be undertaken to better support probabilistic risk analysis conclusions. Probabilities for different confidence levels can be reported to suit the risk tolerance of the decision makers. It was determined that the risk analysis approach is feasible and can produce useful outputs, given a clear understanding of the data inputs and their associated distributions.

The aim of this study is to evaluate an alternative socio-economical valuation method (i.e., Hybrid Real Options, HRO) to the traditional benefit cost method (CBA) for the evaluation of investments within Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). The proposed alternative method will be evaluated by the use of a case study where it is applied and compared to the results of the traditional method. The case study evaluates the socio-economical effects of an investment in Variable Speed Limits along a section of the motorway E18. The results of the study shows that the choice of evaluation methods affects both the investment strategy and the estimated socio-economical benefits of the investment. Using the HRO method yields twice as high socio-economical benefits compared to the CBA method. The main reason for this being that HRO account for risk and uncertainties wheras CBA only accounts for the most probable outcome of the investment. The choice of method is a complex task that involves many stakeholders however a more critical approach to the choice of socio-economical evaluation method is advocated based on the results of this study.

Master of Science / Department of Agricultural Economics / John M. Crespi / The objective of this analysis is to develop a demand model for the Sunsweet Cooperative and from this model, determine if the benefits to Sunweet’s advertising, as measured by the change in revenues, exceed the advertising costs. Weekly retail scanner data from July 20, 2008 through June 13, 2010 were used. Ordinary least squares regression equations were estimated to determine the overall demand for Sunsweet dried prunes. Two different models were estimated, one for Sunsweet’s overall prune demand and another for the Sunsweet’s Ones product. The advertising elasticity for the total dried prune demand was 0.10 and for the Ones product was 0.24. The demand equations demonstrated that Sunsweet’s advertising expenditures are increasing the overall demand for their dried prunes and their specific Ones product. What cannot be determined from the demand estimations is whether increase in revenues was greater than the cost of the advertising program. This is an especially important question for Sunsweet as it can be discerned from the data that Sunsweet’s advertising expenditures are quite large as a fraction of its revenues when compared with other similar food sellers. Using the regression equations, a benefit-cost simulation was conducted. We developed a measure that tells us how much the quantities sold of prunes would be affected by increased advertising expenditures by Sunsweet while taking into account the costs of advertising under an assumption of monopolistic competition. Two different scenarios were evaluated, one with a shutdown condition that did not allow average revenue to be below average cost and another without this shutdown condition. The total Sunsweet prune model resulted in an average benefit cost of 2.143 with the shutdown constraint and 1.845 without the shutdown constraint. The Ones product model resulted in an average benefit-cost estimate of 2.672 with the shutdown constraint and 2.358 without the shutdown constraint. Overall these ratios are good for a company operating under monopolistic competition and suggest that for every dollar spent on the advertising campaign, the average return was near to or greater than $2. Overall our analysis showed that Sunsweet’s advertising expenditures are increasing their overall demand and their benefits of advertising are exceeding their costs of advertising.