Thesis (MComm (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2006. / For the last 40 years, academics advocated the use of the traditional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) techniques but these suggestions were ignored by practitioners for a long time. The Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Present Value Payback Period (PVPP) are now some of the more widely used traditional DCF-based techniques, especially among large firms. However, academics are now criticising these techniques as they are based on rigid assumptions that ignore the management of flexibility in projects. The Real Option Valuation (ROV) is suggested as an alternative technique because it implicitly incorporates this flexibility in project valuation. With ROV, opportunities in projects are treated as real options and are therefore valued using financial option principles. Real options give the firm the opportunity to act on an investment project (invest, abandon, rescale) at a later date, when more information is available. As with the traditional DCF-based techniques in the past, few firms seem to have adopted ROV despite academics’ recommendations. This study is thus aimed at determining through a survey, whether the largest firms in South Africa, specifically those included in the JSE/FTSE Top 40 index, are using ROV. Based on the results of the survey, it is concluded that firms generally do not use ROV as only nine percent of the respondents were found to be using it. This is largely attributed to managers being unaware of the technique, and to some extent, to the technique’s complexity. On the other hand, managers were generally found to recognise the flexibility despite not using ROV, although it was not confirmed whether they quantify this flexibility.

建立適當的資本投資決策，對於企業未來的發展具有深遠的影響。如何能擬定出適合的資本預算計畫，以增加公司的成長機會與競爭能力，便是當前重要的課題。本論文以三個階段探討企業投資歷程中所具有的實質選擇權評價：包括對於計畫案擬定之初期，進行投資機會價值評估的實質成長選擇權。以及針對投資計畫開始進行時，管理者所擁有的各種管理彈性，如遞延、擴張、縮減與暫停投資的決策彈性，進行多重實質選擇權的價值評估。最後，針對未能順利成功的計畫案，管理者擁有將其永遠放棄，以收回投資成本殘值的實質放棄選擇權價值進行評估。 　　對於第一階段的成長選擇權價值評估，本文已建立出同時考量標的資產與投資成本隨機變動，以及標的資產存在不連續跳躍特性下的選擇權評價封閉解，結果可用來評估計畫方案擬定初期的實質成長選擇權價值。若將評價模式中的參數進行限制，則本模型將會分別退化至Black and Scholes(1973), Merton(1976), Fischer(1978), Margrabe(1978), McDonald and Siegel(1985)等重要的選擇權評價文獻，可知本文已獲致較一般化的評價模型。 　　在第二階段的多重實質選擇權價值評估，本文採用Trigeorgis(1991)所建立的對數轉換二項評價模式，再加入跳躍模型的考量，以符合科技產業所具有的創新、競爭特性，期較能合理評估其價值，也獲得了較一般化的評價模式。再者，本文以模擬方式對於管理者在投資計畫的進行過程中所擁有的遞延、擴張、縮減以及暫停投資等彈性決策價值進行評估，以彰顯出利用實質選擇權評價方法進行彈性決策價值評估的必要性。由數值分析的結果得到，當多個實質選擇權同時存在時，其間將產生不同程度的交互作用，因此並不能直接將個別價值予以加總來求算整體的實質選擇權價值。不過，每項管理彈性的加入對於整體價值的增加皆具有正向貢獻。 　　對於第三階段的放棄選擇權價值評估，本文建立同時存在多項投資方案下的實質放棄選擇權評價模型，結果可用來評估研發計畫方案未能成功時的實質放棄選擇權價值。此外，本文進一步對於此評價模型進行數值分析，並將所得到的結果歸納如下：(1)方案間價值變動相關係數對於實質放棄選擇權價值的影響上，有相關係數越高時，實質放棄選擇權的價值就越高的現象。(2)殘值回收比率較高時，若採取較多的投資計畫方案，將可以獲致較高的實質放棄選擇權價值，此結果可作偽管理者在選擇備抵方案數目時的參考。(3)對於敏威性分析的探討，發現到當殘值增加、利率下降以及剩餘期間較長時，實質放棄選擇權的價值是增加的，此現象與賣權特性結果一致。 　　因此，本文針對企業投資歷程中所具有的實質選擇權評價進行深入探討，分別建立選擇權評價模型，也獲致了較以往模型更一般化的評價結果。並於各評價模型建構完成後，輔以數值模擬與敏感性分析，以進一步說明本文所建構模型之一般性與合理性。最後，希望此結果有助於日後企業對於投資價值評估時之參考，並可彌補此類研究文獻的不足。 / This dissertation presents three essays, each provides a general real option pricing model. In the first essay, we derive a generalized option pricing formula for the case of the underlying asset and exercise price both being driven by a mixture of continuous and jump diffusion processes. Our pricing model is a generalized version of Black and Scholes(1973), Merton(1976), Fischer(1978), Margrabe(1978), and McDonald-Siegel(l 985). And each of the historical model is shown to be a special case of ours. We then use the model developed in this article to evaluate real growth options where the underlying assets follow jump diffusion processes. The second essay develops a multi-option pricing model incorporating jump characteristics. The model we provide here can be used to value various types of flexibilities, including the option to defer, the option to shut down, the option to contract, and the option to expand. Based on our numerical results, we find that the model can deal with the interactions among these options. The third essay considers an abandonment option on the maximizing value of several investment projects. Here we develop a model to evaluate R&D projects that may not be accomplished. We show that both Black-Scholes's model and Stuiz's model are special cases of ours under certain restrictions on parameters. From the simulation results, we find a positive relation between the correlation of project value changes and the value of the real abandonment options. Furthermore, our simulation results show that the higher the percentage of recovering salvage value, the more number of investment projects should be carried out. The result we find can help managers to choose the better backup projects. Our sensitivity analysis shows that the value of the real abandonment options increase when the riskless interest rate decreases, and at the same time the salvage value and the time to maturity increase.

The five essays in this dissertation are all concerned with how commodity price uncertainty affects the valuation of real and financial assets.  Focusing on the stochastic process approximating the price process of the commodity, a time-inhomogeneous mean reverting process is suggested and used in the valuation of a pulp mill.  Also an analytic approximation and a parameter estimation procedure to a stochastic volatility option-pricing model are developed.  Generally, the large valuation differences and hedging errors that occur for different assumptions about the price process indicate the importance of an appropriately specified price process.  The dissertation provides examples of this. The question of whether commodity prices are mean reverting or follow a random walk is also studied.  Using a large database with close to 300 different commodities, econometric tests favour a random walk.  There are very few exceptions.  However, when applied to an option pricing model, the time-inhomogeneous mean reverting process gives smaller hedging errors than the traditional Black-Scholes model based on a random walk.  The results are therefore inconclusive, although mean reversion seems more predominant than econometric tests reveal. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2003

Denna studie syftar till att undersöka sambandet mellan målet med en investering och en beslutsfattares val av kapitalbudgeteringstekniker i medelstora företag. Vidare har beslutsfattarens humankapital lagts till som modererande faktor för att kontrollera dess påverkan på det generella sambandet mellan målet med en investering och valet av kapitalbudgeteringstekniker. Baserat på 51 kvantitativa svar från beslutsfattare i medelstora företag visar resultatet att valet av kapitalbudgeteringstekniker varierar beroende på vilket mål investeringen syftar till att uppfylla medan beslutsfattarens humankapital inte visat någon modererande effekt. Vidare bidrar studien med en alternativ uppdelning av kapitalbudgeteringstekniker som frångår den teoretiska uppdelningen, en uppdelning som är mer praktiskt orienterad och ser till intressenters målsättningar. / This study aims to explore the relationship between the target goal of an investment and the choice of capital budgeting techniques made by decisionmakers in medium-size companies. Furthermore, the decisionmaker’s human capital has been added as a moderating factor to control for its impact on the general relationship between the goal of an investment and the choice of capital budgeting techniques. Based on 51 questionnaires from decisionmakers in medium- size companies, the results show that the choice of capital budgeting techniques varies depending on the target goal of the investment, where shareholders generally chose sophisticated techniques and stakeholders tend to use the unsophisticated techniques. Contrastively, the decisionmaker’s human capital shows no moderating effect. Finally, this study provides an alternative structuring of capital budgeting techniques incongruent with theoretical approaches, one that is more practically oriented and conscientious of the end target of interested parties.

Studien avser att förklara hur kapitalstrukturen, bestående av eget kapital, kortfristiga skulder och långfristiga skulder påverkar valet av kapitalbudgeteringsteknik inom stora svenska bolag vid strategiska investeringar. Genom Trade Off teorin och Principal Agent teorin formulerades studiens hypoteser. Empirin samlades in via enkäter som skickades ut till 325 bolag listade på Nasdaq OMX Small, Mid och Large Cap, där svarsfrekvensen blev ca 19 %. För att kartlägga kapitalstrukturen inhämtades årsredovisningar för att sedan beräkna nyckeltal som mäter de olika delarna i kapitalstrukturen. Resultatet har analyserats med hjälp av statistiska analyser, vilket visar att kapitalstrukturen påverkar valet av kapitalbudgeteringsteknik inom stora bolag. En hög andel kortfristiga skulder har en positiv association med osofistikerade tekniker medan en hög andel långfristiga skulder inte har någon association med varken osofistikerade eller sofistikerade tekniker. Vidare påvisas det inte att högt eget kapital har en positiv association med sofistikerade tekniker, däremot finns en negativ association med osofistikerade tekniker. Tidigare studier har inte delat upp skuldstrukturen och menar att en hög andel skulder ökar användandet av osofistikerade tekniker. Studier som är baserade på stora företag har inte tidigare påvisat ett samband mellan hög skuldsättning och osofistikerade tekniker, vilket gör skäl för uppdelningen. Denna studien har bidragit med att dela upp skuldstrukturen i kortfristiga skulder respektive långfristiga skulder. / The study intends to explain how the capital structure, consisting of equity, short-term liabilities and long- term liabilities, affects the choice of capital budgeting techniques in large Swedish companies in strategic investments. Through the Trade Off theory and Principal Agent theory, the study's hypotheses were formulated. Empirical was collected true surveys sent to 325 companies listed on Nasdaq OMX Small, Mid and Large Cap, where the response rate was about 19 %. To chart the capital structure, annual reports were obtained to calculate key ratios that measure the various components of the capital structure. The result has been analyzed using statistical analyzes, which shows that the capital structure affects the choice of capital budgeting techniques in larger companies. A high proportion of short-term liabilities has a positive association with unsophisticated techniques, while a high proportion of long-term liabilities has no association with neither unsophisticated or sophisticated techniques. Furthermore, it is not shown that high equity has a positive association with sophisticated techniques, but there is a negative association with unsophisticated techniques. Previous studies have not broken up the debt structure and mean that a high proportion of debt increases the use of unsophisticated techniques. Studies based on larger companies have not previously demonstrated a link between high leverage and unsophisticated techniques, which makes the division possible. This study has helped to break down the debt structure in short-term liabilities and long-term liabilities.

The proposition of this dissertation is that superior capital budgeting solutions can be attained by not only analyzing projects individually but rather as part of a portfolio of projects that has the objective of maximizing the company’s range of multiple objectives, not only the economic benefit. The dissertation starts with a detailed study of current techniques and an assessment of flaws and shortcomings. This study concludes with the requirements that any new approach or model must address in order to improve on the current practices. Based on these requirements, a new model is developed based on the portfolio approach that integrates all the assumptions, constraints, project and variable interrelationships. An important feature of the model is that it selects its portfolio of capital projects in such a way that it optimizes support for the company’s multiple objectives, not only the economic objective. The dissertation concludes with the application of this model to a hypothetical case. It is concluded that, by developing and using this model, a company can improve the analysis required before capital budgets are finalized. / Dissertation (MEng (Industrial Engineering))--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Industrial and Systems Engineering / unrestricted

<p>Detta examensarbete har genomförts vid Mälarenergi Elnät AB i Västerås. Undersökningen föranleddes av regeringsbeslutet om att elmätare måste avläsas en gång per månad från 2009. Konsekvensen för Mälarenergi är att de måste investera i ett automatiskt mätinsamlingssystem. Syftet med projektet har varit att skapa en generell investeringsmodell för att ekonomiskt utvärdera ett antal mätinsamlingssystem. I rapporten har Milabs, Seneas, Enermets, HM Powers, Iprobes samt Techems och Viterras system analyserats. Resultaten från investeringskalkylen visar att Mälarenergi kommer att göra en förlust på 5-8 MSEK/år under hela projektets livslängd (15 år). Den största delen av investeringen utgörs av hårdvarukostnader (50 %), medan drift- och underhållskostnader samt logistikkostnader utgör 20 % respektive 25 %. Mälarenergi Elnät bör budgetera 1 500-1 950 SEK/mätpunkt för projektet, beroende på systemval. En känslighetsanalys visar att driftskostnad och livslängd är avgörande faktorer, vilket medför att det är viktigare att satsa på ett robust och säkert system än det billigaste.</p>

Detta examensarbete har genomförts vid Mälarenergi Elnät AB i Västerås. Undersökningen föranleddes av regeringsbeslutet om att elmätare måste avläsas en gång per månad från 2009. Konsekvensen för Mälarenergi är att de måste investera i ett automatiskt mätinsamlingssystem. Syftet med projektet har varit att skapa en generell investeringsmodell för att ekonomiskt utvärdera ett antal mätinsamlingssystem. I rapporten har Milabs, Seneas, Enermets, HM Powers, Iprobes samt Techems och Viterras system analyserats. Resultaten från investeringskalkylen visar att Mälarenergi kommer att göra en förlust på 5-8 MSEK/år under hela projektets livslängd (15 år). Den största delen av investeringen utgörs av hårdvarukostnader (50 %), medan drift- och underhållskostnader samt logistikkostnader utgör 20 % respektive 25 %. Mälarenergi Elnät bör budgetera 1 500-1 950 SEK/mätpunkt för projektet, beroende på systemval. En känslighetsanalys visar att driftskostnad och livslängd är avgörande faktorer, vilket medför att det är viktigare att satsa på ett robust och säkert system än det billigaste.

The purpose of this diploma thesis is to understand financing of drug development from an enterprise risk management perspective as well as to critically assess the efficiency of the ISO framework and risk management techniques used for determining whether to fund drug development or not. The diploma thesis is divided into theoretical and practical part. The first part starts with perception and assessment of uncertainty and risk in the past. It describes how risk-averse individuals attempted to deal with uncertainty and different risk. This is followed by the evolution of traditional risk management into the fast developing enterprise risk management. The text further analyses commonly used risk management standards COSO ERM and ISO 31000:2009. However, the main focus is on the critical assessment of analytical tools which are frequently used for evaluating and assessing risks, especially financial ones, during drug development. The theoretical part is finished by a drug development process, whose phases are briefly described. The practical part was written in co-operation with AstraZeneca, a top-notch pharmaceutical company. The overview of its business is preceded by an explanation of current issues in the pharmaceutical industry. Furthermore, the risk analysis is conducted with respect to the ISO framework. Subsequently, selected risk assessment techniques are applied on the simplified financial model of two different drugs, which was created based on AstraZeneca's real data. These risk assessment tools are used in different phases of drug development so it could be seen clearly how the results are changing during a project. The outcomes of this risk analysis are compared with original plans used by AstraZeneca which were used for deciding whether to fund drug development or not.

This study investigates what three large, multinational hospitality companies do in practice when evaluating and making IT investment decisions. This study was launched in an attempt to 1) learn more about how multinational hospitality companies evaluate, prioritize, and select IT investments in the context of hotel GDS; 2) call attention to an important and costly topic in hopes of improving current practices; and 3) fill a noticeable literary void so that future researchers on IT and hotel GDS would have a foundation and starting point. The perennial question of any business is "How does an organization add value?" Value can be defined from many different perspectives and may result from tangible and intangible factors. Principal stakeholders include shareholders (investors), customers, and employees. Shareholders typically measure value in terms of economic return on their investment based upon some level of perceived risk. For customers, value is assessed in terms of a price-value relationship; that is, how much they received in terms of product and services for the price they paid. For employees, value is measured by salary and by the intrinsic rewards of the job. Yet, one of the most elusive questions with respect to information technology is "How can value be measured?" Hospitality executives are being pressured daily to invest more in information technology (IT) - especially in the area of hotel global distribution systems (GDS), which have become the cornerstone of a hotel firm's IT infrastructure and portfolio. There are a number of sweeping changes on the horizon impacting hotel GDSs and requiring the development of a well-crafted strategy for global distribution systems. These broad changes include bypass theories to remove airline GDSs and travel agents, the introduction of new and emerging player, and innovative approaches to pricing and promotion. Many of these developments offer promise to hoteliers, but they also threaten their control over their customer relationships and their inventory and add to the complexity and cost of distribution. Selecting the appropriate distribution channels is paramount to success and important if hotel firms are to grow top-line revenue and control overhead; yet the number of choices facing hotel executives is overwhelming. They are also at a loss for measuring value derived from IT. One of the greatest issues plaguing the advancement of technology in the hospitality industry is the difficulty in calculating return on investment. Until recently, most technology investment decisions have been considered using a support or utility mentality that stems from a manufacturing paradigm. Under such thinking, business cases could be built around an application or technology's ability to reduce costs or create labor savings. However, management's attitudes towards technology have been shifting in recent years. The more technologically savvy hospitality companies are looking to IT to build strategic and competitive advantages. These types of investments yield results over time, and seldom in the short-run. This is problematic among owners and investors who demand more immediate results. Moreover, it is difficult to quantify and calculate the tangible benefits of technology when it is used for strategic purposes. Today's financial models are inadequate for estimating the financial benefits for most of the technology projects under consideration today. While the hospitality industry has disciplined models and sufficient history to determine the financial gains or success of opening a new property in a given city, it lacks the same rigorous models and historical data for technology, especially since each technology project is unique. Although this problem is not specific to the hospitality industry, it is particularly problematic since the industry tends to be technologically conservative and unwilling to adopt new technology applications based on the promises of its long-term merits if it cannot quantify the results and calculate a defined payback period. When uncertainty surrounds the investment, when the timing of the cash flows is unpredictable, and when the investment is perceived as risky, owners and investors will most likely channel their investment capital to projects with more certain returns and minimal risk. Thus, under this thinking, technology will always take a back seat to other organizational priorities and initiatives. Efforts must be made to change this thinking and to develop financial models that can accurately predict and capture the financial benefits derived from technology. Given the present predicament and difficulties surrounding the current tools, techniques, and measures, executives are faced with an important choice. They can 1) continue to use the present methods despite their shortcomings, 2) dispense with ROI, cost-benefit, and discounted cash flow analyses altogether for IT projects, or 3) develop new methods, tools, and measures that can accommodate the complexities of IT and quantify the intangibles. This study is a call to action in favor of the latter because the measures determine not only which projects will be accepted but also how their success will be evaluated. Having a rigid evaluation process forces executives to identify a project's potential contribution and align the project's objectives with the firm's strategic goals and objectives. Using the co-alignment principle as its theoretical underpinning, this study employs a multiple-case design to investigate the resource allocation processes used with respect to information technology and global distribution systems. It looks at how three leading, multinational hospitality firms address IT project/investment evaluation and decision-making, the measures they use, and the frustrations they encounter. These frustrations include problems that arise from a hotel firm's fragmented ownership as well as from hotel executives' inability to measure the results of IT through definitive cause-and-effect relationships. The results of the study provide affirmation of the co-alignment principle and document linkages and co-alignment between strategy and IT. Clearly, decisions involving IT and hotel GDSs require multivariate measures, multidimensional perspectives, and multidisciplinary involvement. However, research from the marketing discipline is noticeably absent in this area. This study concludes that because IT plays an important enabling role for marketing initiatives and is redefining the supply chain of a hotel firm, marketing researchers can no longer stand on the sidelines. This study also identifies three important constructs, or classes of variables (context, process, and project), the variables comprising each, and their influences on the evaluation and decision-making processes. These findings add to the understanding of IT evaluation, measurement, and decision-making in the context of hotel GDS. This study clarifies the intangible aspects in hopes that useful measures can be developed in subsequent research to quantify and evaluate these costs and benefits. Finally, this study provides a series of prescriptions or recommendations gleaned from the three companies that were the focus of this study in hopes that they will lead to the development of best practices in the hospitality industry. / Ph. D.