The present study examines a Mobility Management measure called “test traveller project”, which aims at increasing the public transport modal share by offering free public transport tickets to those who often use their car for their daily commuting and trips. The existing literature consists of a rather limited number of cases and their scope is usually limited because only some of the main elements that influence one’s travel behaviour are considered in each study. Furthermore, literature is not unanimous in concluding that this measure can reduce car use. This work studies more than 50 cases in Sweden, and by employing the Theory of Planned Behaviour the effects of test traveller projects have been examined in an empirical case in the Swedish municipality of Botkyrka, located in the Stockholm metropolitan area. The findings underline that a test traveller project, despite its limitations, may be a valid and relatively simple tool available to public bodies and public transport companies for enticing a segment of car drivers to switch to public transport where it is a valid alternative. In fact, according to the literature, the major results achievable are around 20% of new public transport users among test travellers, whereas in Sweden 20% has been achieved by the first upper quartile of the projects. In particular, the effectiveness of a test traveller project is greater when combined or conducted in parallel with other measures such as improvements in the public transport offer and/or changes in the transport system aiming at disadvantaging car use. The case study of Botkyrka has confirmed that attitudes are the major influencing factor when making the transport mode choice. Further, it has confirmed that environmental concerns and the time passed from one’s residential relocation also play an important role. Habits seem to be less important, thus adhering to that literature whose authors argue that an external event (such as moving home) makes people reflect upon and rethink their travel habits. The case study in Botkyrka has empirically demonstrated how the project participants correct their beliefs and perceptions about public transport, sometimes in a positive way and sometimes in a negative way. An interesting finding is the existence of a new category of people living in the suburbs. Literature indicates that, in the same suburban context, individuals with suburban land use preferences tend to use the car more that individuals with urban land use preferences. In the case study of Botkyrka clearly emerged as a majority among the test traveller project participants a category of individuals who have a suburban land use preference but at the same time would like to use public transportation instead of their car and have high environmental concerns.

Transporter står idag för en stor andel koldioxidutsläpp vilket har en negativ påverkan på miljön och klimatet. Samtidigt väljer allt fler att flytta till städer vilket innebär utmaningar för framkomlighet och mobilitet. Bilanvändningen är en stor anledning till dessa problem och därför behövs verktyg för att få fler att välja bort bilen och i stället resa med hållbara transportmedel. I denna uppsats studeras mobility management (MM) som inkluderar strategier och metoder som syftar till att få människor att resa hållbart genom att påverka attityder och beteenden. Studien undersöker hur kommunerna Lund och Växjö arbetar med mobility management för att motverka bilanvändningen och främja hållbara transportsätt. Vidare syftar studien till att undersöka de utmaningar och möjligheter som arbetet med MM innebär, samt att identifiera de lärdomar som har förvärvats av tjänstemännen som arbetat med MM. Forskningsfrågorna besvaras genom att studera dokument som ger riktlinjer för kommunernas arbete och genom intervjuer med tjänstemän. Urban fabrics theory används som teoretiskt ramverk för undersökningen som baserat på teorin fokuserar på transportsätten gång, cykel, kollektivtrafik och bil var för sig. Studiens resultat visar att Lund har en stark tradition av att arbeta med MM jämfört med Växjö där det inte är etablerat i samma utsträckning. Av intervjuerna framgår det att bägge kommunerna övervägande fokuserar på att främja cykling vilket till viss del går emot styrdokumenten som betonar vikten av att få fler att gå. De största utmaningarna med MM-arbetet är att få stöd från politiska beslutsfattare då de ofta är svårt när det handlar om åtgärder som motverkar bilanvändning. Vidare är det utmanande att få människor att välja bort bilen då den erbjuder en frihet, trygghet och kan förknippas som en symbol för status och framgång. För att lyckas med MM krävs det en kontinuitet och långsiktighet med åtgärder då det tar tid att bygga upp en kultur där hållbara transportsätt är det självklara valet. Studien identifierar slutligen en brist och komplexitet i uppföljningen av arbetet med MM vilket gör det svårt att se effekterna av MM-åtgärder. / Transports currently account for a significant amount of carbon dioxide emissions, which has a negative impact on the environment and climate. Simultaneously, an increasing number of people are choosing to move to cities, which presents challenges for accessibility and mobility. Car usage is a major contributor to these problems, which creates a need for tools to encourage more people to choose sustainable modes of transportation over driving. This study examines mobility management (MM), which includes strategies and methods that aim to encourage people towards usage of sustainable modes of transport by influencing attitudes and behaviours. This study investigates how the municipalities of Lund and Växjö are implementing mobility management to reduce car usage and promote sustainable transportation. Furthermore, the study aims to explore the challenges and opportunities associated with MM efforts, as well as to identify the lessons learned by the officials working with MM. The research questions are addressed by analysing documents that provide guidelines for the municipalities work and through interviews with municipal officials. The Urban Fabrics Theory is used as a theoretical framework for the research, focusing on walking, cycling, public transportation, and car usage separately. The result of the study reveals that Lund has a strong tradition of working with MM compared to Växjö, where it is not as well established. The interviews indicate that both municipalities mainly focus on promoting cycling, which contradicts the strategic documents emphasizing the importance of increasing walking. The biggest challenges in MM work are gaining support from political decision-makers, as it is often difficult when measures aim to reduce car usage. Additionally, it is challenging to persuade people to reduce car usage due to the freedom, security, and status associated with cars. Successful MM requires continuity and long-term measures, as it takes time to build a culture where sustainable transportation is the obvious choice. Finally, the study identifies a lack and complexity in evaluating MM work, making it difficult to see the effects of MM measures.

The aim of this thesis was to study determinants of a readiness for pro-environmental travel behavior in households. Four empirical studies were conducted examining reduction in car use (Study I), acceptability of transport policy measures (Study II and III), and behavioral adaptations in response to travel demand management (TDM) measures (Study IV). In Study I, the aim was to interrupt habitual car use by means of a deliberation intervention and to examine the importance of moral motivation (i.e., personal norm) for car use reduction. Results showed that, as a result of the intervention, car use was mainly reduced among car users with a strong car use habit and a strong moral motivation to reduce car use. The aim of Study II was to examine factors important for the acceptability of three TDM measures: raised tax on fossil fuel, improved public transport, and an information campaign. The results demonstrated the importance of general environmental beliefs (i.e., pro-environmental orientation, problem awareness, personal norm, and willingness to reduce car use) and policy specific beliefs (i.e., perceived impact on freedom to choose travel mode and own car use, perceived effectiveness, and perceived fairness) for the acceptability of the measures. Furthermore, personal norm was found to be particularly important for the acceptability of raised tax and the information campaign, whereas problem awareness was more important for the acceptability of improved public transport. Following up on Study II, the purpose of Study III was to examine the acceptability of single and combined transport policy measures, more specifically, raised tax on fossil fuel, improved public transport, subsidies of renewable fuel, a package of raised tax on fossil fuel and improved public transport, and a package of raised tax on fossil fuel and subsidies of renewable fuel. General environmental beliefs (i.e., pro-environmental orientation, problem awareness, personal norm, and willingness to act) and policy specific beliefs (i.e., perceived effectiveness and perceived fairness) were found to be important for the acceptability of the measures. Moreover, personal norm was particularly important for the acceptability of raised tax on fossil fuel and the packages, while problem awareness was more important for the acceptability of improved public transport and subsidies of renewable fuel. The aim of Study IV was to examine the behavioral adaptations, more specifically, the expected car use reduction, in response to three hypothetical TDM measures: raised tax on fossil fuel, improved public transport, and a package of raised tax on fossil fuel and improved public transport. Furthermore, factors important for the expected car use reduction were analyzed. Results showed that a combination of the measures was expected to lead to a larger car use reduction compared to the single measures, and the most commonly chosen reduction strategies were more efficient car use and changing travel mode. Moreover, internal motivational factors, such as personal norm, and the perceived personal impact of the measures were important for expected car use reduction in response to the measures.

Frågeställning: Vilken typ av människor har störst benägenhet att ändra sina resvanor?Vilka marknadsföringsstrategier är bäst lämpade för att få Eskilstunas invånare att ändra sina attityder och beteenden så att de väljer mer hållbara resealternativ? Syfte: Syftet med denna uppsats är att presentera marknadsföringsåtgärder som Eskilstuna kommun kan använda sig av för att främja hållbart resande samt att redogöra vilka målgrupper dessa åtgärder bör riktas mot. Metod: Vi valde att göra en kombinerad kvantitativ och kvalitativ studie. Kvantitativ data har vi hämtat från sekundärkällor i form av tidigare undersökningar som är gjorda i Eskilstuna och andra jämförbara kommuner i Sverige. Primärdata i denna studie är kvalitativ och kommer från intervjuer med olika personer som jobbar med att främja hållbart resande. Teorin och empirin vävdes sedan samman till en analys. Slutsats: I slutsatsen presenterar vi vilka målgrupper som är intressanta att arbeta med samt med vilka marknadsföringsåtgärder vi anser att Eskilstuna kommun bäst kan nå dem. Vår förhoppning är att de åtgärder vi presenterat kommer till användning för Eskilstuna kommun och att de kommer föra med sig en beteendeförändring. / Research questions: What kind of people is most likely to change their travel habits?Which marketing strategies are best suited to get Eskilstuna’s residents to change their attitudes and behaviors so they will choose more sustainable travel options Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to present different marketing measures which Eskilstuna municipality can use to promote sustainable travel and to present which target groups such measures should be directed towards. Method: We chose to use a combined quantitative and qualitative research method. Quantitative data was obtained from secondary sources in the form of previous investigations that were made in Eskilstuna and other comparable municipalities in Sweden. The primary data in this study is qualitative and comes from interviews with various people who are working to promote sustainable travel. The theory and empirical data were woven together to constitute an analysis. Conclusion: In the conclusion, we present the target groups that are of interest to work with and with which marketing measures we consider Eskilstuna municipality best can reach them. We hope that the measures we have presented will be useful for Eskilstuna municipality and that they will lead to behavioral change.

Travel not only serves the purpose of engaging in spatially separated activities but also fulfills fundamental human needs for self-actualization, independence, and a sense of connection with the world. Unfortunately, the transportation sector faces significant challenges related to environmental, economic, and social issues, largely attributed to privately owned cars. Cars contribute to environmental problems through, e.g., emissions, resource depletion, and noise pollution, while also imposing economic burdens and exacerbating social inequalities. Despite these challenges, private car ownership and usage remain dominant. Addressing these issues calls for a transition to a sustainable and equitable mobility system. Currently, the predominant approach is the efficiency strategy, which focuses on technological advancements to reduce resource consumption. However, this strategy alone falls short, as the success of technological innovations ultimately depends on human behavior. Adaptations in behavior may offset efficiency gains, and improved technologies may not fully consider the true motivations, habits, and needs of mobility users. Consequently, the sufficiency strategy becomes indispensable, centering on human decision-making, lifestyles, behaviors, and consumption patterns.This dissertation aims to contribute to the development of a sustainable transportation system by identifying and laying the groundwork for effective, psychology-based approaches. Four individual studies delve into different aspects of the sufficiency strategy. Study 1. First, it is important to recognize that individuals exhibit a wide array of diverse needs, physical abilities, attitudes, and available mobility options. This study embarked on the task of identifying distinct mobility types prevalent among the German population. Drawing data from a representative national survey on everyday mobility behavior, socio-demographic, behavioral, geographic, and psychographic information was used to cluster individuals into eight stable mobility profiles by means of exploratory factor and cluster analysis. The results provide a foundation for the development of customized interventions aimed at reducing private car use and fostering sustainable transportation choices that accommodate diverse needs and preferences. Study 2. In the realm of novel mobility solutions tailored to address these needs, a qualitative, focus-group based study was conducted in Berlin, Germany, to explore the potential of Mobility as a Service (MaaS) in redirecting users away from private cars and enhancing access to diverse transportation options. Data from 12 focus group sessions was analyzed using qualitative content analysis. Results revealed that while MaaS effectively addresses nearly all instrumental motives of private car use, it falls short in tackling the symbolic and affective motives associated with car ownership. However, MaaS may contribute to a more sustainable mobility system by emphasizing its unique symbolic and affective motives as well as highlighting its potential to alleviate the burdens of car ownership. Study 3. As a readily applicable intervention, this study comprised an experiment to assess the effectiveness of nudges in encouraging commuters to shift toward transit options, employing the theory of planned behavior as a theoretical foundation. Participants were randomly assigned to different nudging groups or a control group, and data was analyzed using structural equation modeling and logistic regressions. While the theory demonstrated a good prediction of individuals’ decisions, none of the nudges achieved statistically significant effectiveness. This exploration of nudging interventions in the transportation sector provides insights into the limitations of strategies aimed at changing habituated commuting behavior. Study 4. The Covid-19 pandemic presented an unprecedented disruption to commuting habits, offering a unique opportunity to examine the impact of telecommuting on mobility-related attitudes. Through factor analysis and multivariate analyses of variance on longitudinal data from the California panel study of emerging transportation, the development of mobility-related attitudes of telecommuters and physical commuters was compared. Further, individuals’ intentions to telecommute in the future were modeled using external job related and attitudinal predictors. Results showed that fundamental attitudes toward mobility remained largely stable despitethe variations in commuting behavior and the pandemic’s progression. The main determinants of intentions to telecommute in the future were not job related but internal, including attitudes and tech-savviness. The model further suggests a prevalence of hybrid working beyond the pandemic, potentially opening up opportunities to prioritize sustainable transportation options due to a reduced demand for daily commuting. In addition to examining these four research projects individually, findings and their broader implications that span across the studies are discussed. These include the increasingly important role of tech-savviness, the integration of attitudinal constructs in interdisciplinary transportation research, the questionable impact of environmental concern on behavior, and the ambiguous effects of nudging interventions in the transportation sector. By delving into various psychological aspects of individuals' mobility behavior, this dissertation highlights the potential and, at times, the shortcomings of a diverse range of measures aimed at addressing the challenges of the transportation sector in the pursuit of sustainability and equity.:TABLE OF CONTENTS List of tables ix List of figures xi List of abbreviations xii Synopsis xiv 1 The trouble with individual mobility and what to do about it 16 1.1 Why we move 16 1.2 Challenges brought about by the transportation sector 17 1.3 Roots of mobility behavior 19 1.4 Changing for the better: the mobility transition 21 1.5 Aim and research questions 25 2 Study I. The identification of mobility types on a national level 28 2.1 Introduction 29 2.2 Method 31 2.3 Results 34 2.4 Interpretation and discussion 39 2.5 Conclusion 46 3 Study II. Access over ownership: barriers for adopting Mobility as a Service (MaaS) from the perspective of users and non-users 47 3.1 Introduction 48 3.2 Theoretical background 49 3.3 Method 52 3.4 Results 56 3.5 Discussion 68 4 Study III. Extending the theory of planned behavior to predict and nudge toward the subscription to a public transport ticket 74 4.1 Introduction 75 4.2 Literature review 76 4.3 Method 80 4.4 Analysis and results 83 4.5 Discussion 88 5 Study IV. Telecommuters vs. physical commuters during the Covid-19 pandemic: the change in mobility-related attitudes and the future intention to telecommute 92 5.1 Introduction 93 5.2 Conceptual framework and hypotheses 95 5.3 Data and method 98 5.4 Results 101 5.5 Discussion 113 6 Discussion .................. 119 6.1 Summary of findings and their meaning for the mobility transition 119 6.2 Impactful findings across studies 123 6.3 Conclusions on how to move forward in the mobility transition 128 7 References 130 8 Appendix 151 8.1 Appendix for chapter 2 151 8.2 Appendix for chapter 3 153 8.3 Appendix for chapter 4 156 8.4 Appendix for chapter 5 158 9 Acknowledgements and Funding 161 9.1 Study I (chapter 2) 161 9.2 Study II (chapter 3) 161 9.3 Study III (chapter 4) 161 9.4 Study IV (chapter 5) 161 9.5 Chapters 1 and 6 162 9.6 Personal acknowledgements 162

This report aims to study the difficulties when approaching accessibility and mobility challenges in rural areas and explore how rural areas might have been approached with urban methods. Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) is a renowned concept when addressing accessibility and mobility development in both rural and urban areas. Car ownership and habitual car use are topics that are relevant in the research fields of sustainable transportation and urban development and has shaped the development of MaaS methods. One question is if rural MaaS methods can be developed to fit an unique rural context more specifically.  To add knowledge about this a theoretical thematic analysis was made, based on four semi-structured interviews about how the interviewees perceive their accessibility, and reflections about their current situation in their settlement regarding accessibility. The results show that the settlements have both differences and resemblances regarding accessibility by bicycling, walking, car travel, and feeling of belongingness to their local community. One unexpected discovery is that the sense of belongingness and identity is correlated with the perceived accessibility to public and local services.  Finally, a suggestion for how to adapt MaaS to a rural area by using the data collected from the interviewees is presented with an example. The suggested method could be a tool to identify objectives and services that can be applied for every rural area by using Local Accessibility Index in combination with a categorization of the studied municipality. / Den här rapporten kommer studera utmaningarna med tillgänglighet och mobilitet på landsbygderna samt undersöka om det har tillämpats metoder på landsbygderna som från början var framtagna för stadsmiljöer. Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) är en erkänd metod för att angripa utmaningar med tillgänglighet och mobilitet i både land och stad. Bilägande och vardaglig bilanvändning är ämnesområden som är relevanta kring forskning om hållbart resande och stadsutveckling – och vilket har präglat utformningen av MaaS. Frågan uppstår huruvida tillämpningen av MaaS på landsbygderna kan utvecklas för att på ett mer specifikt sätt kunna anpassas till ett unikt område.  För att fylla kunskapsluckan genomfördes en teoretisk tematisk analys av fyra semi-strukturerade intervjuer för att undersöka hur de tillfrågade upplevde sin tillgänglighet samt för att höra deras reflektioner kring deras situation med avseende på tillgängligheten i sitt område. Resultatet visar på att de fyra olika personerna delar både likheter och olikheter när det kommer till tillgänglighet med cykel, via gång, och känsla av samhällsinkludering. Ett oväntat resultat var hur ens känsla av tillhörighet till regionen och till det offentliga hörde ihop med tillgänglighet till offentlig och lokal service.  Slutligen, presenteras ett förslag till metod med ett exempel för hur MaaS kan anpassas till ett landsbygdsområde genom att använda data från intervjuer. Den föreslagna metoden kan bli ett verktyg för att identifiera målsättningar och tjänster oavsett vilken plats det är som undersöks. Till detta används ett lokalt tillgänglighetsindex samt en kommunindelning.

I flera decennier har det funnits en medvetenhet kring den privata personbilens negativa konsekvenser för både samhälle, människa och miljö. Ambitiösa mål har tagits fram i försök att minska utsläppen av växthusgaser men ändå går vägen till en omställning för långsamt. Dessutom bidrar massbilismen till en ohållbar och ogynnsam utveckling av städer och samhällen, både ekonomiskt, ekologiskt och socialt, där planeringen och utvecklingen av den byggda miljön har varit en bidragande orsak till att många idag sitter fast i ett bilberoende. Dock finns det antydan om att det även kan finnas andra orsaker som gör det svårt för individer att vidta en beteendeförändring som skulle innebära en minskad bilanvändning. Syftet med denna studie har varit att undersöka om ett högt bilanvändande kan bero på vanor, attityder och normer. Vidare har det undersökts ifall detta kan förändras och leda till beteendeförändringar genom minskat bilanvändande med mjuka mobility managementåtgärder och nudging.  Aktionsforskning är den huvudsakliga metoden som har använts i studien. Detta har genomförts genom att låta vanebilister bli testcyklister under en period för att undersöka om det kan leda till ett minskat bilanvändande i Höganäs kommun. Resultatet av aktionsforskningen har därefter mätts genom enkäter, dokumentationer och en fokusgruppsintervju. Resultatet har visat på att testcyklingen haft ett gott resultat genom att det har bidragit till att deltagarnas bilanvändning har minskat i förmån för cykeln. Vanor tycks har varit den huvudsakliga orsaken till deltagarnas höga bilanvändaning före testperioden och att testcyklingen har resulterat i att detta beteende har kunnat brytas. Attityder och normer kan dock inte riktig förklara det höga bilanvändandet bland deltagarna innan testperioden. Detta har troligtvis berott på att deras vanebeteenden har varit så pass starka att det har resulterat i att deras beteenden inte har varit förenliga med deras attityder och normer. Resultatet kan också innebära att testcyklingen främst har lockat personer som upplevde bilkörning som problematisk och därmed har haft viljan och motivationen att vidta förändringar. Därför går det att ifrågasätta om mjuka mobility managementåtgärder fungerar för alla målgrupper av bilister. Dessutom kvarstår det osäkerheter kring testcyklingens långsiktiga effekt på bilanvändningen. / For several decades, there has been an awareness of the negative consequences of the private car both for society, people and the environment. Ambitious goals have been developed in an attempt to decrease greenhouse gas emissions, but the way towards a transition is still too slow. In addition, mass motoring contributes to an unsustainable and unfavorable development of cities and communities, both economically, ecologically and socially, where the planning and development of the built environment has been a contributing factor that we are now stuck in car addiction. However, there are indications that there may also be other causes that make it difficult for the individual to make a behavioral change that would mean a reduction in car use. The purpose of this study has been to examine whether high car use may be due to habits, attitudes and norms. Furthermore, it has been examined whether this can be changed with mobility management measures and nudging and lead to a behavioral change by a reduced care use.  Action research is the main method used in the study. This has been done by letting habitual drivers become test cyclists for a trial to examine whether it can lead to a reduction in car use in Höganäs municipality. The results of the action research have subsequently been measured through surveys, documentation and through a focus group. The results have shown that the test cycling had a good impact and has contributed to a decrease in the participant’s car use in favor of the bike. Habits have been the main reason for their high car use that the participants have been able to change due to the trial. However, attitudes and norms cannot really explain the high car use among the participants before the trial. This is could be explained that their habitual behaviors has been so strong that their behavior has not been in line with their attitudes and norms. The result may also mean that the test cycling project has mainly attracted people who did not experience driving as compatible with their attitudes and thus have had the willingness to make changes. Therefore, you should question if soft mobility management measures work for all target groups of motorists. In addition, there are still uncertainties regarding the long-term effect of the test cycling project on car use.

Autonomes Fahren könnte Autonutzung und -besitz grundlegend verändern – mit erheblichen Auswirkungen darauf, wie mit dem Automobil umgegangen wird, wie Mobilität und Verkehr künftig organisiert und städtebauliche und Verkehrsinfrastrukturen gestaltet werden. Ziel der Arbeit ist es, zu einer frühzeitigen und umfassenden Auseinandersetzung mit der Technik aus empirisch-sozialwissenschaftlicher Sicht beizutragen, sowie wesentliche Einflussfaktoren und Dynamiken der Technikentwicklung zu identifizieren, um diese gestaltend begleiten zu können. Bei technologiebasierter Entwicklung ist eine Vorhersage von möglichen Entwicklungspfaden schwierig, und Akzeptanz gilt als Schlüsselfaktor für die erfolgreiche Produkteinführung. Sie vollzieht sich mittels soziotechnischer Konstruktions- und Veränderungsprozesse und ist abhängig von Personen, deren Einstellungen, Erwartungen und Handlungen, ihrer Umwelt, ihrer Werte- und Normrahmungen sowie Veränderungen im Laufe der Zeit. Diese Parameter werden in der Debatte derzeit noch wenig beachtet. Verschiedene qualitative Methoden bilden die Grundlage für eine erste Exploration und Strukturierung des noch wenig bekannten Untersuchungsgegenstands. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Akzeptanz des autonomen Fahrens wesentlich vom Zusammenspiel individueller und gesellschaftlicher Einflussfaktoren abhängt – die nicht alleine über Einstellungsparameter erfasst werden können. Sie lassen sich erst vor dem Hintergrund von handlungsleitenden, kollektiven Orientierungen zu aktuellen Autonutzungspraktiken verstehen. Gleichzeitig ist ein konsistenter, in sich geschlossener Entwicklungspfad zum autonomen Fahren derzeit noch nicht absehbar, und es sind einerseits Entwicklungen möglich, die das System der Mobilität grundlegend verändern könnten. Andererseits sind aber auch Veränderungen denkbar, die das bestehende System eher ergänzen, als es radikal zu transformieren. Vor diesem Hintergrund ergeben sich je spezifische Implikationen für die weitere Forschung. / Autonomous driving could fundamentally transform car use and ownership and considerably change the way how we interact with the automobile, how mobility and transport are organized in the future and how urban and transportation infrastructures are designed. The objective of this study is to engage empirical, social sciences in a timely and comprehensive debate on autonomous driving, so the key factors and dynamics of this technological development can be identified and shaped. Forecasting development trajectories of technology-based developments proves especially difficult, and acceptance is thought to be a key factor for a successful product implementation. Acceptance takes place in the context of sociotechnical construction and transformation processes; it is dependent on individuals, their attitudes, expectations and actions, their environment, their value- and norm-framing, and on changes over time. User perception, evaluation and contextualization in relation to autonomous driving have largely gone unheeded, even though they are deemed central to technology acceptance. A set of distinct qualitative methods served to explore and structure a research topic little known to date. In sum, the results indicate that acceptance of autonomous driving fundamentally relies on the interaction of individual and societal factors that cannot be determined through attitudinal parameters only. They are better understood against the background of implicit and habitual orientations towards current car use and ownership practices. At the same time, the studies have shown that a consistent and determined development path cannot be predicted yet. While there are chances for the mobility system to undergo a fundamental transformation with the implementation of autonomous vehicles – on both supply and demand sides – potential changes could also rather complement the existing system. Specific implications for future research will be discussed in the thesis.

L’automobile occupe une place fondamentale dans notre société, au point qu’on a pu parler de « civilisation de l’automobile ». En dépit des critiques qui lui sont régulièrement adressées, celle-ci n’a cessé de se renforcer, avec toujours davantage de voitures par adulte et une proportion croissante de déplacements effectués en voiture. Cependant, depuis le tournant du millénaire, on assiste à un retournement de tendance. Pour la première fois, la mobilité en voiture baisse dans les grandes agglomérations, tandis que la circulation automobile plafonne à l’échelle nationale. Cette évolution, du reste, n’est pas spécifique à la France mais s’observe dans l’ensemble des pays développés, une tendance parfois désignée sous le terme de « peak car (travel) ». Parmi les explications les plus convaincantes de ce retournement, figurent l’augmentation du prix du carburant, suivie de la récession de 2008. La volonté des ménages de maîtriser leurs budgets-temps de transport y contribue également, dans un contexte d’allongement des déplacements vers le travail et de dégradation des vitesses de déplacements. En outre, la diffusion de l’automobile se rapproche de la saturation. Si à long terme, la croissance du kilométrage moyen par adulte est indexée sur le taux de motorisation, cependant à moyen terme l’utilisation des véhicules fluctue en fonction du pouvoir d’achat énergétique, et un modèle basé sur ces deux variables suggère qu’on observerait une réaction normale à une augmentation exceptionnelle du prix du carburant. Les facteurs de croissance du taux de motorisation tiennent eux-mêmes principalement à la succession de générations de plus en plus motorisées, surtout chez les femmes, compte tenu d’un accès de plus en plus large au permis de conduire, à l’activité professionnelle, et d’une urbanisation de plus en plus diffuse, qui ont augmenté le besoin d’une seconde voiture. Pour modéliser l’auto-mobilité, on propose une approche emboîtée, individuelle et longitudinale, segmentée en fonction du genre. L’auto-mobilité peut en effet être vue au niveau individuel comme une succession de choix emboîtés, puisque la détention du permis conditionne l’accès à un véhicule personnel, de même que la motorisation conditionne l’usage d’un véhicule. L’avantage d’une approche longitudinale réside dans la possibilité de distinguer entre mesures d’hétérogénéité et de sensibilité, qui ne sont pas équivalentes. Pour chaque niveau de choix, l’approche est structurée autour d’une analyse de type âge-cohorte-période. Globalement, les taux de motorisation sont plus hétérogènes chez les femmes, un résultat qui est susceptible de recevoir une double interprétation, économique ou sociétale. On peut le voir en termes d’inégalités de genre. Mais il peut également s’interpréter comme le reflet d’un statut encore intermédiaire du second véhicule, dont l’opportunité serait davantage évaluée au regard des besoins et des contraintes réels du ménage. A l’inverse, l’usage des véhicules est à la fois plus élevé et plus hétérogène chez les hommes, compte tenu de la fonction collective du véhicule principal et des arbitrages internes aux ménages quant aux choix du lieu de résidence et des lieux de travail des conjoints. Pour finir, on estime à partir de modèles sur données de panel des effets marginaux et des élasticités par rapport au revenu, au prix du carburant et à la densité, qui sont ensuite comparées avec la littérature. Dans l’ensemble, les résultats sont cohérents avec l’analyse descriptive, ainsi qu’avec la littérature. Le modèle permet également de rendre compte du déclin tendanciel des élasticités, traduisant l’approche de la saturation. Pour finir, une évaluation a posteriori confirme l’opportunité d’une modélisation séquentielle, indiquant que les choix de motorisation sont indépendants des niveaux d’usage de la voiture. / Car ownership and use are a decisive part of our society, which was sometimes designed as the “civilization of the car”. Despite many critics, the car has become ever-more central in the modern way of life, with an ever-increasing number of cars per adult and proportion of trips realized by car. However, from the beginning of the millennium, there was a reversal in the trend towards ever-more car use. For the first time, the average number of daily trips realized by car has been falling down in French conurbations, and nationwide traffic by car is leveling off. This situation, nonetheless, is not specific to France but is common to many developed countries, and is often referred to as the “peak car (travel)”. The main explanations for such a downturn include rising fuel prices from the late 1990’s, followed by the recession in 2008, but also household’s willingness to control their travel time budgets, in a context of increasing commuting distances and reduced travel speeds. Besides, the diffusion of car ownership is approaching saturation. While on the long-run, average car travel per adult is indexed on motorization, mid-term fluctuations of average car use per vehicle are related to the energetic purchasing power, and a simple model based on these two variables is suggesting that the stagnation of car use from the 2000’s could be a reaction of a usual kind to an exceptional rise in fuel prices. The growth in motorization is itself principally caused by the follow-up of ever-more motorized generations, especially among women, given their increasing access to driving license, job participation and ever-more diffuse land use patterns, which have increased the need for a second car within households. In order to model auto-mobility, a nested, individual and longitudinal approach is implemented, segmented by gender. Auto-mobility can indeed be seen as a follow-up of nested choices, as driving license is necessary for holding a car, while access to a personal vehicle is itself required for car use. The advantage of a longitudinal approach consists in the ability to distinguish between measures of heterogeneity and sensitivity, which can be shown not to be equivalent. For every given level of choice, the approach is based on an age-cohort-period-type analysis. Motorization rates happen to be more heterogeneous among women, a result which is likely to receive an interpretation either of a social or economic nature. According to the first interpretation, it should be regarded as the illustration of gender inequalities. However, it could also be regarded as reflecting the still-intermediary status of the second vehicle, which opportunity is assessed depending upon household’s specific needs and constraints. On the contrary, car use is at the same time higher and more heterogeneous among men, given the collective function of the first vehicle and household’s internal trade-offs in residential and job choices. Finally, average partial effects and elasticities are estimated from panel data models, either with respect to income, fuel prices or density. Generally, results are consistent with the descriptive part, as with the literature. The model also rationally gives account of the decreasing trend for elasticities, which was often noticed in the literature and reflects the approach of saturation. As a conclusion, an a posteriori evaluation of the assumption of a sequential decision process is made, confirming that choices of motorization and car use are mutually independent.