Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2005. / Title from first page of PDF file. Document formatted into pages; contains xi, 114 p.; also includes graphics (some col.) Includes bibliographical references (p. 108-114). Available online via OhioLINK's ETD Center

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2005. / Title from first page of PDF file. Document formatted into pages; contains ix, 121 p.; also includes graphics (some col.) Includes bibliographical references (p. 114-121). Available online via OhioLINK's ETD Center

Thesis (M.S.)--Worcester Polytechnic Institute. / Keywords: alternative investment; time frame; commodity trading advisor Includes bibliographical references. (p.34-36)

Commodity prices have recently seen record grain prices with most growers generally improving their profitability. In 2007 the USA crop protection value experienced its biggest annual increase since 1984 with a US$30.5 billion increase compared to 2006. South African growers increased their gross margin even with lower historical yields, from US$480 per hectare in 2004, to an estimated US$1,133 per hectare in 2008. With the current global grain stock-touse ratios maintaining their lowest levels in 35 years, higher and more price volatility is expected to continue. Whilst growers have benefitted from these more favourable crop prices, agrochemical suppliers have battled to increase their chemical prices. In South Africa, other suppliers (seeds and fertiliser), managed to increase prices at least twofold the percentage agro-chemicals achieved from 2003 to 2008. The purpose of this research was therefore to try and understand how commodity prices influence corn growers’ pesticide demand, as well as to better understand their pesticide buying behaviour under fluctuating crop prices. A structured web-based questionnaire to collect primary data from corn growers within South Africa and Hungary was used. Besides the impact of commodity prices to business buying behaviour, the research also focused on the price elasticity of agro-chemicals, futures trading as a risk reduction mechanism and the value of agro-chemical sales representatives. From the findings the survey managed to highlight that even though commodity prices do impact agro-chemicals, it was not the biggest influencer towards agrochemical buying behaviour. The survey further indicated that similar to many other industrial goods, agro-chemicals represented fairly inelastic prices, most growers use hedging to reduce price uncertainty and the majority value the relationship with their agro-chemical representatives. The data also highlighted additional similarities that exist within the business buying behaviour of Hungarian and South African growers. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

This thesis is a collection of four separate papers with a core theme: commodity futures manipulation. It aims to answer three important questions. How vulnerable are futures markets to manipulation? What are the effects of manipulation? How should futures markets be regulated? We first set up a one-shot game-theoretical model (Chapter 2) with certain classes of heterogeneously informed traders to consider how vulnerable a futures market to manipulation is, what influences this vulnerability and how manipulation affects the functioning of the market. This model predicts that futures manipulation may occur in equilibrium with a positive possibility if the deliverable supply is less than perfectly elastic, and the large trader possesses a certain amount of private information (here relating to his "type"), and more important, the functioning of futures markets is adversely affected by manipulation. In Chapter 3, we attempt to extend the above analysis into a dynamic context with a slightly modified market structure with the purpose to show how a large trader can manipulate a market through dynamically strategic trading when the hedger trades rationally, observes contract delivery process and may opt out of futures trading. This model also predicts a positive probability of manipulation in equilibrium. One interesting result from this model is that the adverse effects of manipulation may be lessened due to the introduction of exogenous uncertainty in a futures market. This may justify certain types of regulation against manipulation initiated by exchanges or regulators, such as trading for liquidation only, emergency price or position limits, etc. Chapter 4 moves to investigate empirically the economic effects of the alleged Sumitomo manipulation on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The results support our theoretical analysis. We find the evidence that the manipulation not only reduced the accuracy of "price discovery", but also influenced the basis and basis risk in the futures market. Thus the functioning of the LME was undermined. Furthermore, by comparing the actual LME cash price with a VAR forecast, we find that the LME cash prices were generally above the forecast prices during the period of alleged manipulation, but not significantly. Finally, we discuss the regulatory implications of futures manipulation in Chapter 5, and argue that manipulation should be one of the major concerns for futures regulation. We also undertake a comparative study of futures regulation in the US and the UK, and propose specifically how cost-effective futures (derivatives) regulation may be achieved in the UK.

Commodity futures markets are often thought of as good examples of perfectly competitive markets. However, there are many commodities that are produced in concentrated industries and traded on large commodity exchanges. Nickel, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, oil, and coffee are some examples. This thesis examines the effects of concentrated production on output and prices in these markets. The analysis includes the possibility that firms can trade futures contracts for their output and also store their output. A dynamic model is developed that examines how a duopoly could use futures trading and storage strategically to affect outcomes in subsequent periods. I examine futures trading for a perishable good and storage with no futures trading separately in order to highlight the potential stategic use of these activities on their own. I also analyse a model in which both futures trading and storage are allowed. I show that both futures positions and storage would be used strategically by the duopolists, in contrast to the results of previous work that used two-period models only. By allowing for uncertainty in the form of demand and cost shocks, the solution to the model can be used to provide some implications for correlations among industry level variables. These correlations are examined for the world lead, zinc, and copper industries. Weak support for the model is found, however, estimation of the vector auotregression implied by the model suggests the model in its present form is unable to fit the data very well.

Thesis (M.S.)--Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1993. / Vita. Abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 65-66). Also available via the Internet.

Commodity futures markets are often thought of as good examples of perfectly competitive markets. However, there are many commodities that are produced in concentrated industries and traded on large commodity exchanges. Nickel, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, oil, and coffee are some examples. This thesis examines the effects of concentrated production on output and prices in these markets. The analysis includes the possibility that firms can trade futures contracts for their output and also store their output. A dynamic model is developed that examines how a duopoly could use futures trading and storage strategically to affect outcomes in subsequent periods. I examine futures trading for a perishable good and storage with no futures trading separately in order to highlight the potential stategic use of these activities on their own. I also analyse a model in which both futures trading and storage are allowed. I show that both futures positions and storage would be used strategically by the duopolists, in contrast to the results of previous work that used two-period models only. By allowing for uncertainty in the form of demand and cost shocks, the solution to the model can be used to provide some implications for correlations among industry level variables. These correlations are examined for the world lead, zinc, and copper industries. Weak support for the model is found, however, estimation of the vector auotregression implied by the model suggests the model in its present form is unable to fit the data very well. / Arts, Faculty of / Vancouver School of Economics / Graduate

abstract / Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

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