Using data from the Michigan Consumer Survey, I explore alternatives for constructing the Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) to improve its forecasting power regarding consumption and its components. Questions which seemed to matter in the past are no longer good predictors. For more recent sample periods, expectations of automobile purchases, unemployment, and current economic situations are more important than categories selected previously. An alternative index is constructed accordingly. Applying different techniques suggested in the literature, the new index significantly outperforms the ICS in both in-sample and out-of-sample tests. Furthermore, the new index also produces more accurate results when forecasting recessions.

Yes / We assess the impact of investor sentiment on future stock returns in 50 global stock markets. Using the consumer confidence index (CCI) as the sentiment proxy, we document a negative relationship between investor sentiment and future stock returns at the global level. While the separation between developed and emerging markets does not disrupt the negative pattern, investor sentiment has a more instant impact in emerging markets, but a more enduring impact in developed markets. Individual stock markets reveal heterogeneity in the sentiment-return relationship. This heterogeneity can be explained by cross-market differences in culture and institutions, along with intelligence and education, to varying degrees influenced by the extent of individual investor market participation.

This thesis analyses if households’ confidence could be a significant variable to predicthouseholds’ debt growth in Sweden. Households’ debts have an important role in thefinancial system where the vulnerability of households’ debts has increased over time.To test whether households’ confidence is a significant variable for the prediction ofhouseholds’ debt growth in Sweden, an econometric model with the households’ debtchange as the dependent variable and the changes in the repo rate, unemployment, grossdomestic product and consumer confidence index as independent variables was used.Consumer confidence index was used as a proxy variable for households’ confidence.It was lagged by one time period in order to quantify if consumer confidence indexcould, with previous value, predict the households’ debt growth. The result showed thatthe households’ confidence was not significant to predict the households’ debt growth. / Denna uppsats har analyserat om hushållens förtroende är en signifikant variabel för attförutse hushållens skuldtillväxt i Sverige. De svenska hushållens skulder har ensignifikant betydelse för den svenska ekonomin. Men sårbarheten för dessa skulder harökat med tiden. För att testa om hushållens förtroende är en signifikant variabel för attförutse hushållens skuldtillväxt i Sverige har en ekonometrisk modell med förändringeni hushållens skulder som en beroende variabel och förändringen i reporäntan,arbetslöshet, bruttonationalprodukten och konsumentförtroendeindex som oberoendevariabler. Konsumentförtroendeindex användes som en ersättare för att mäta hushållensförtroende används. Den var fördröjd med en tidsperiod för att kunna testa omhushållens föregående uppfattningar påverkade framtida skuldtillväxt för hushållen.Resultaten från regressionsanalysen antyder på att hushållens förtroende inte är ensignifikant variabel för att kunna förutse hushållens skuldtillväxt.

This research examines the confluence of consumers’ use of social media to share information with the ever-present need for innovative research that yields insight into consumers’ economic decisions. Social media networks have become ubiquitous in the new millennium. These networks, including, among others: Facebook, Twitter, Blog, and Reddit, are brimming with conversations on an expansive array of topics between people, private and public organizations, governments and global institutions. Preliminary findings from initial research confirms the existence of online conversations and posts related to matters of personal finance and consumers’ economic outlook. Meanwhile, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) continues to make headline news. The issue of consumer confidence (or sentiment) in anticipating future economic activity generates significant interest from major players in the news media industry, who scrutinize its every detail and report its implications for key players in the economy. Though the CCI originated in the United States in 1946, variants of the survey are now used to track and measure consumer confidence in nations worldwide. In light of the fact that the CCI is a quantified representation of consumer sentiments, it is possible that the level of confidence consumers have in the economy could be deduced by tracking the sentiments or opinions they express in social media posts. Systematic study of these posts could then be transformed into insights that could improve the accuracy of an index like the CCI. Herein lies the focus of the current research—to analyze the attributes of data from social media posts, in order to assess their capacity to generate insights that are novel and/or complementary to traditional CCI methods. The link between data gained from social media and the survey-based CCI is perhaps not an obvious one. But our research will use a data extraction tool called NetBase Insight Workbench to mine data from the social media networks and then apply natural language processing to analyze the social media content. Also, KH Coder software will be used to perform a set of statistical analyses on samples of social media posts to examine the co-occurrence and clustering of words. The findings will be used to expose the strengths and weaknesses of the data and to assess the validity and cohesion of the NetBase data extraction tool and its suitability for future research. In conclusion, our research findings support the analysis of opinions expressed in social media posts as a complement to traditional survey-based CCI approaches. Our findings also identified a key weakness with regards to the degree of ‘noisiness’ of the data. Although this could be attributed to the ‘modeling’ error of the data mining tool, there is room for improvement in the area of association—of discerning the context and intention of posts in online conversations.

在國外, 消費者信心指數常被用來預測經濟情勢 (如股價、油價、消費支出等) , 縱然有部份學者對此抱持著懷疑的看法。在台灣, 則因缺乏┌消費者信心指數┘的資料, 以往一直無人從事這方面的相關研究。房地產業是火車頭工業, 也是民生工業; 其榮枯不但影響國家之經濟發展, 亦影響到每一個人居住的能力。因此, 房地產業的景氣波動, 是與大家休戚相關的。透過工商時報所編製的┌消費者信心指數┘資料, 與房地產預售屋公開價的變動情況, 我們發現：在大台北區, 兩者之間呈顯著正相關, 而且前者領先後者九個月。 / The forecast of Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) to Economy is usally used in many nations for years, even someone suspects the effect of it. For lack of CCI, there is seldom such study in Taiwan. Estate industry is an important one, due to its influences on national economic development and the capacity for purchasing dwelling house of everyone, therefore, people pay much attention to it in Taiwan. By collecting the data of CCI and open-price of pre-sold housing in Taipei Area, we can recognize that there is obviously positive relation between them. And the former is a leading in- dicator with 9 months Ahead.