協同規劃預測補貨(CPFR®; Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment)是近年來當紅的供應鏈實務。1998年由VICS發表CPFR指導方針至今已有許多導入個案，但探討雙方交易的本質，亦即數量與價格，則發現所有CPFR文獻及VICS提出的CPFR模型，僅探討買賣雙方間的交易數量，完全沒有與價格相關的論述，顯示CPFR模型並不完整，因此產生本研究之研究動機。 連續補貨實務(CRP; Continuous Replenishment Program)的文獻指出CRP的實行需要簡單穩定的交易價格，另外巴西導入CPFR個案則提及零售商認為穩定的價格有利於協同，暗示CPFR需要穩定的交易價格，由此可知CPFR有其適用性限制。本研究推論CPFR適用性與導入產品之品類價格穩定性有關，因此針對台灣五個CPFR個案進行個案研究，對研究命題：「常銷性產品有補貨需求且名目品類價格穩定者，容易發揮CPFR效益，因此較適合導入CPFR」進行驗證。 個案研究結果指出，VICS之CPFR模型有適用性限制，並非如VICS認為可以適用於所有產業的所有產品。研究結果顯示研究命題為真，CPFR模型的適用性受到「補貨需求強度」和「品類價格穩定度」的影響，其較適用於有補貨需求且名目品類價格穩定之「常銷性產品」，如R公司的電動木工機、特力的燈具和寶僑的美髮類品牌產品；CPFR較不適用於有補貨需求但品類價格不穩定的「大宗商品」，如中環的光碟片；CPFR也較不適用於很少有補貨需求的「易腐性產品」，如育冠的季節性商品與R公司的一次生產促銷產品。 其中，具備穩定名目品類價格之「常銷性產品」，儘管可能因其他風險分擔約定而具備不穩定之實質品類價格，但穩定之名目品類價格能在CPFR流程中降低提早購買(forward buying)及價格問題所造成的補貨延遲，使CPFR效益容易發揮，因此較適合導入CPFR；「大宗商品」的品類價格受市場價格影響，品類價格不穩定，不僅無法降低提早購買，且在CPFR流程中為了避免因議價造成補貨延遲反而需要維持較高存貨水準才能因應缺貨風險，使之難以發揮CPFR效益，較不適合導入CPFR；「易腐性產品」因為具備很少補貨需求，不是適合導入CPFR的產品，此類產品的電子化供應鏈重點應該在於協同開發與顧客關係管理。 本研究更進一步推論研究命題二：「同一品類之常銷性產品，名目品類價格不穩定者導入CPFR的效益會較名目品類價格穩定者為低」，與研究命題三：「適合導入CPFR之常銷性產品，不一定要導入完整CPFR才能獲得效益」。此兩命題分別表示：穩定名目品類價格是常銷性產品獲得CPFR導入效益的促進因素，且CPFR模型無法一體適用所有常銷性產品。 根據本研究研究結果，本研究認為VICS之CPFR模型因缺乏探討品類價格而不夠完善，建議VICS應將CPFR適用性納入CPFR模型中以臻完善。

This master thesis describes and proves how companies can improve their operational performance and supplier relationships by using modern collaborative and planning practices, specifically the Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) concept. The theoretical part depicts main developments in supply chain planning over time, shows common challenges in the world of supply chain and offers possible solutions in terms of collaborative supply chain planning practices. The practical part analyzes the CPFR process between one of the leading providers of telecommunications services T-Mobile and its major mobile handset supplier Nokia. The concluding part defines gaps between an ideal to-be process of supply chain collaboration and the status quo process. Status quo benefits of current CPFR processes are described as well.

從網際網路的興起，導至許多的相關發展應運而生，一種新型態的數位經濟儼然形成，繼而起之的就是當紅的EC與EB的快速發展。目前許多企業組織紛紛走向走一潮流，在此一時代的大環境之下，企業們紛紛朝向策略性的組織聯盟來發展，他們意識到，唯有以合作性的策略聯盟才能更掌握競爭優勢。而電子化的交易市集，正是它們眼中最佳的追求目標，因為它能夠幫助企業們達成上述一連串相關的理念與願景。 　縱使電子交易市集(e-marketplace)的前景一片看好，但目前大部分採行電子商務應用的公司，多著重在電子交易／採購部分，未能重視流程處理，並且仍然處於競爭仍然大於合作的狀態，再者，供應鏈管理上相關活動如訂單、存貨管理等等亦未能融入其中；因此，為能夠使企業有效連結產銷體系，完整建立起全球運籌管理模式，並精確掌握市場需求變化、迅速無誤地撮合買賣及完成交易，故就目前電子商務及產業電子化發展的情況來說，融入了供應鏈管理機制的電子交易市集應該就是一有效可行的解決方案。 　目前供應鏈管理之最新發展的模式為CPFR（Collaborative, Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment）模式；此為一流程處理模式，主要強調供應鏈上協同合作流程(collaborative processes)的概念，以促進供應鏈上流程的處理效率，同時藉由成員之間的訊息分享(information sharing) 及整合性企業流程(co-managed)來獲得供應鏈管理之最佳績效。 　因此，若能夠在B2B(Business To Business)電子交易市集平台機制中，將CPFR的流程及服務整合入市集平台中，則將會使得企業在這一波產業電子化的浪潮中，更能夠掌握住競爭優勢，故本研究首先根據文獻整理，建立起具有整合效益之電子交易市集之平台架構；進而以協同合作此一運作機制，將CPFR 處理流程之解決方案整合至此交易平台內，以建構出一具有CPFR協同合作的交易平台模式，來描述整個產業電子化在整合供應鏈及交易市集策略運作方式與流程；最後，再針對建構模式中，進行模式各個構面及服務的定義，讓企業清楚的了解合作流程的真正效益及優勢。

Currently, there are many software applications handling planning, scheduling, material management, invoicing, workflow management within an organization. However, companies need to plan across a wider span of activities and need to collaborate with their partners to optimize the &#039 / &#039 / overall&#039 / &#039 / profitability. This requires collaborative planning within a supply chain and exchange of planning data. Collaborative Planning, Forecast and Replenishment (CPFR) is one of the most prominent initiatives on Collaborative Planning. However, CPFR only provides guidelines, but does not mandate any technology for the definition and execution of planning process. Therefore, companies have difficulties to define and deploy CPFR solutions and there is a need for a Service Oriented, Open Platform for the definition and execution of collaborative planning processes involving many supply chain tiers. In this work, first of all, the building blocks of the planning process have been defined as machine processable definitions in OASIS ebXML Business Specification Language (ebBP). CPFR Designer Tool developed provides the users to visually create CPFR Processes in ebBP and to convert this ebBP process definition automatically to an executable business process using OASIS Business Process Execution Language (WS-BPEL). In this way, the supply chain enterprises are able to create customized CPFR processes which are in integration with the underlying intra-enterprise planning processes. Moreover, in the thesis, a CPFR Process Execution Environment is prepared where the generated CPFR Process can be executed. The work presented in this thesis is realized as a part of IST-213031 iSURF project funded by European Commission under ICT FP7.

Introduction: Nowadays beverage companies must focus on maintaining healthy finishedgoods inventory stocks in order to be able to decrease inventory costs, meet customerrequirements and to obtain competitive advantage. However many beverage SMEdon’t have an accurate planning and forecasting to manufacturing inventories. Thereforethey often face the problem of optimization in inventory management due to several differentreasons. As a result, company loses its competitiveness. Thus, there is a need tocoordinate Inventory activities of beverage SMEs to improve inventories’ planning. The purpose of this study is to analyze how inventory management is organized in a small Chinese beverage company. Frame of reference: This research is based on the theoretical framework relates with InventoryManagement (IM) and Retailer-managed inventory (RMI), vendor-managed inventory(VMI) and Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR).Empirical Data were collected through personal interviews and organization documents. Methodology: The research strategy for this paper is a single case study. This strategy allows investigating topic in its real life context. The inductive approach is used for this research based on qualitative data. The major source of data collection was semi-structured interviews and the company's documents. For analyzing data categorization approach was applied. Conclusion: The study found that inventory management theories presented in scientificliteratures are used in practice. To achieve better inventory management for beverageSMEs, the authors summarize four importance parameters based on literatures and findings.The authors also provide some suggestions based on the importance parameters inthe conclusion to optimize the case company’s inventory management.

協同規劃、預測與補貨（Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment; CPFR）是協同商務中一個新發展的應用實務，主要強調供應鏈上買賣雙方協同合作流程的概念，以提升供應鏈上流程的處理效率。企業需要利用協同合作所獲得之即時資訊來進行預測，減少不確定性因素之影響，提高預測之準確性。CPFR流程下協同預測階段分為銷售預測與訂單預測，兩者之預測項目與目的並不相同且所需要之資訊亦有所差異。銷售預測著重在市場需求部份的預測；訂單預測則是依據銷售預測、存貨狀況與生產面因素來做實際訂單之預測。由於訂單預測作為下個階段之實際補貨的參考，其預測準確性的要求就格外重要。然而研究文獻多偏向CPFR流程架構與導入效益等管理議題，雖有少數針對預測模型之研究，但亦以企業內部銷售預測為主，並未有文獻提出跨企業之協同訂單預測模型，故CPFR流程下訂單預測方法之研究探討有其必要性。本研究以CPFR流程中接續銷售預測之訂單預測階段為研究主題，蒐集近年來國內外研究CPFR與訂單預測之相關文獻為基礎，歸納出協同合作下訂單預測所須具備之屬性與影響因素，並作為模型解釋變數，透過時間序列、多元迴歸與演化策略法（Evolution Strategies）的結合，建構一個統整供應鏈上、下游協同資訊與符合CPFR流程下訂單預測特性之預測模型。最後以國內某製造業公司與其顧客（一國際大型零售商）之訂單資料進行模型驗證，與單純使用時間序列方法或統計迴歸分析的預測結果作績效評比，實驗顯示本研究所提出之訂單預測方法較傳統使用單一時間序列或統計回歸方法之預測結果佳。 / Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) is nowadays a practice of collaborative commerce, emphasizing buyers and sellers’ coordination for the efficiency of the process in supply chain. Enterprises utilize instant information obtained from coordinate processes to forecast in order to reduce the influence of the uncertain factor and improve forecasting accuracy. The stage of the collaborative forecasting in CPFR process is divided into sales forecasting and order forecasting which make differences on forecasting objective, subject, and information needed. Sales forecasting focuses on the prediction of the market demand; order forecasting is the prediction of the real orders according to sales forecasting, stock state and productive factor. The accuracy of order forecasting is extremely important because it is regarded as the reference of the replenishment at next stag. The literatures about CPFR mostly probe into manage topics like benefits of implementation or process structures though there are some researches on the forecasting model which mainly discuss sales forecasting inside enterprises. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate into the coordinative order forecasting model under CPFR process. This paper regards order forecasting following sales forecasting in CPFR as the theme. Besides generalizing the necessary parameter of order forecasting based on literatures review, the research presents a hybrid forecasting model which considers coordinative information and order forecasting requirements. It integrates the time series model, regression model, and use evolution strategies to determine its coefficients efficiently. The validity of the forecasting model is verified by experiment on order datum from one manufacturer in Taiwan and its international retailer. The results show that the order forecasting model has better forecasting performance than not only the time series model but also the ordinary regression model.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:52:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 6803.pdf: 4377604 bytes, checksum: b46cca1821ce323769b3573f295615d3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-02-24 / Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos / The growing interest in supply chain management is due to perception that closer relationship between partners lead to performance improvement of the supply chain as a whole. This is possible, for example, due to the increase of demand visibility provided by information exchange between its members. Better supply and demand synchronization is a consequence of collaborative supply chain management and the adoption of collaborative initiatives helps to build these new collaborative relationships between companies that are seeking to remain competitive in dynamic markets, with more demand from customers. Within this theme, this master thesis analysed five collaborative initiatives through systematic literature review, including Quick Response (QR), Efficient Consumer Response (ECR), Continuous Replenishment Program (CRP), Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) and Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR), aiming to develop a theoretical framework to guide the decision making process of adopting and implementing these collaborative initiatives, based on the characteristics, expected benefits, reasons for adopting and possible barriers found in each of them. The analysis of benefits cited in literature showed primary and secondary benefits that are reached by these initiatives. Primary benefits, like better inventory management, should be reached before secondary benefits, like cost reduction, appear. The barriers found in literature were grouped in cultural, behavioral and physical. With technology development, a physical barrier, cultural and behavioral barriers influence more negatively on the relationship than do the physical ones. The reasons for adopting found in literature can be related to economic or market changes in the environment that the supply chain operates, or the form of business organization. Analysing the context of creation and development of these initiatives and their characteristics, it was possible to propose a framework for characterizing the initiatives. It is made of several dimensions for differentiating one initiative from another and can be used as a guide for companies that are planning to implement these initiatives, or help the ones that have already adopted to review its current state and to design a future one. Finally, the theoretical framework to guide the decision making process of adopting a collaborative initiative was proposed, linking the main results of this work, showing to the decision maker the main aspects of concern when adopting a collaborative initiative and highlighting the need to monitor the initiative s performance constantly. / O crescente interesse pela gestão da cadeia de suprimentos deve-se à percepção de que relacionamentos mais próximos promovem a melhoria do desempenho da cadeia como um todo. Isso é possível graças a, por exemplo, o aumento da visibilidade da demanda, proporcionado pela troca de informação entre os membros. A melhor sincronização entre a oferta e a demanda é uma das consequências da gestão colaborativa da cadeia de suprimentos, e as diferentes iniciativas de colaboração permitem a construção destas novas formas de relacionamento entre empresas que buscam a sua permanência em mercados cada vez mais dinâmicos e com clientes cada vez mais exigentes. Dentro desta temática, este trabalho analisou cinco iniciativas de colaboração por meio de revisão sistemática da literatura: Quick Response (QR), Efficient Consumer Response (ECR), Continuous Replenishment Program (CRP), Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) e Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR), com o objetivo de propor uma estrutura teórica para orientar o processo decisório de adoção e implementação dessas iniciativas colaborativas, com base nas características, nos benefícios esperados, nos motivadores à adoção e nas possíveis barreiras encontradas em cada uma delas. Após análise dos benefícios mencionados na literatura, estes foram classificados em primários e secundários, sendo que os benefícios primários devem ser alcançados para que os benefícios secundários apareçam. As barreiras encontradas na literatura foram divididas em culturais, comportamentais e físicas. Com o desenvolvimento da tecnologia, uma barreira física, os aspectos culturais e comportamentais passam a ter uma influencia negativa maior no relacionamento. Os motivadores à adoção da iniciativa podem estar relacionados às mudanças econômicas ou de mercado, ou à forma de organização das empresas. Analisando o contexto de criação e desenvolvimento dessas iniciativas, bem como suas características, foi possível propor um framework para caracterização das mesmas que pode servir como um guia para as empresas que desejam implementá-las ou auxiliar as que já adotam a analisarem seu estado atual e projetar seu futuro. Finalmente, foi proposta uma estrutura teórica para auxiliar o processo decisório de adoção de iniciativas colaborativas, unindo os principais resultados deste estudo, mostrando ao tomador de decisão os principais aspectos que devem ser analisados para a adoção de uma iniciativa de colaboração e evidenciando a necessidade de monitoramento constante do desempenho da iniciativa.

協同規劃、預測與補貨(Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment,CPFR)，在歐美經過一些企業的採用後已經有顯著的成效，目前國內已經有一些企業相繼採用或即將採用CPFR，期望能因此降低供應鏈作業成本及提升供應鏈作業績效，以提升企業競爭力。在CPFR流程與供應鏈協同作業環境下，一個供需雙方協同，且績效良好的的銷售預測具有關鍵的重要性，是管理決策與協同合作時的的重要依據；但是多數的企業並沒有一個結構化、系統化的預測流程及方法，而是各部門透過簡單時間序列方法、天真預測法或人為經驗法則估算需求，進行多點且不同方法之預測，這樣的銷售預測較無穩定的品質，亦較難提供管理者合理的數據解釋。本研究結合時間序列、多元回歸模型與基因演算法發展出一個CPFR流程下之三階段混合預測方法，以買賣方直接之銷售資料、銷售計畫等資訊進行以「週」為單位之個別商品銷售預測。同時本研究中，亦以國內某製造業公司與其顧客（一國際大型零售連鎖店通路商）之產品銷售資料進行方法的驗證；實驗顯示，本研究所提出之預測方法之預測結果較Jeong等人(2002)所提結合多元回歸模型與基因演算法之二階段預測系統之預測結果佳；亦較傳統使用普通最小平方法求解之一般統計回歸方法預測結果佳。 / It has been verified in pilot projects by many European and American Corporations that Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) can improve supply chain performance. Enterprises nowadays in Taiwan are implementing or going to implement CPFR, with hopes to reduce their supply chain operation cost, enhance logistic performance and increase their competition capability consequently. Under CPFR process and supply chain collaboration environment, a supply and demand both sides promised identical sales forecast with well forecasting performance for order decision making and cooperation is very important. Due to the dynamic complexities of both internal and external co-operate environment, many firms resort to qualitative, navie forecasting or other simple quantitative forecasting techniques and have many forecasts in their organization. However, these forecasting techniques lack the structure and extrapolation capability of quantitative forecasting models or without stable performance, while multi-forecasts providing different views of demand. Forecasting inaccuracies exist and typically lead to dramatic disturbances in sales order and production planning. This paper presents a hybrid forecasting model for sales forecasting requirements in CPFR. A three stage model is proposed that integrate the time series model, regression model and use genetic algorithm to determine its coefficients efficiently. Direct sales information and related planned events in both collaborated sides is used for individual product’s “week” sales forecasting. To verify this model, we experiment on two different products and produce forecasts with datum from one manufacturer in Taiwan and its international retailer. The results shows that the hybrid sales forecasting model has better forecasting performance than not only the causal-genetic forecasting model proposed by Jeong et al. (2002), but also ordinary regression model with no genetic training process.

協同規劃、預測與補貨﹙Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment; CPFR﹚是協同商務中的一個應用實務，主要強調供應鏈上買賣雙方協同合作流程的概念，以提升供應鏈上流程的處理效率。未來企業的競爭將是產品背後整體供應鏈的激烈競爭，能對於不斷變化的市場需求作出有效預測，進而快速反應的企業將脫穎而出。對於庫存與補貨的掌控能力更將是企業決勝的關鍵因素之一。 CPFR 中的補貨模型是根據銷售預測、訂單預測、存貨策略與供給面資訊來做實際訂單，以作為補貨之用。補貨模式的準確性可以使賣方針對不同的需求來有效分配未來訂單預測的需求量，並降低安全庫存；買方則可根據訂單預測來調整庫存策略與採購數量。 現今廣用的供應商管理存貨（Vendor Managed Inventory, VMI）並沒有像CPFR加入更多的協同項目與精神，因此比較VMI與CPFR的補貨流程的差異性與優劣性，進而提供企業導入CPFR的補貨流程是相當重要的。 本研究以補貨階段為主題，除了探討協同補貨模式所需具備的屬性與輸入變數外，更將建構一個整合供應鏈上、下游協同資訊與符合協同訂單預測特性之預測模型，以提升補貨準確度，進而堆砌出整個CPFR 協同補貨模式，並加以與現今企業廣為採用的供應商管理存貨（Vendor Managed Inventory, VMI）的補貨模式進行比較，證明CPFR優於VMI，進而可供欲導入CPFR 流程下協同補貨模式或一般補貨模式的相關人員之參考。 / CPFR (Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment) is one of the applications of collaborative business. The stressed concept is the cooperation process of sellers and buyers on the supply chain in order to increase the handling efficiency. In the future, the industries would compete on the whole supply chains behind products—only the industry that is capable of making accurate predictions according to the constantly changing market and reacts immediately has the chance of winning. Being able to control the inventory and supply effectively would be one of the key factors leading to an industry’s success. The replenishment model of CPFR is to fill out the order according to the sales prediction, order prediction, inventory strategy, and supply information. The precision of the replenishment model could affect both suppliers and customers. The former can distribute products properly and meet the different demands from the upcoming orders so as to reduce inventory; the latter are able to revise the inventory strategy and amount of order according to the order prediction. A few research papers aimed at the replenishment model, though, most still focus on the management issues like the process framework of CPFR and the implementation benefit. Hence, establishing both an information system that coordinates customer demand with suppliers and a collaborative replenishment model that increases the accuracy of predictions is fairly important. The phase of replenishment, as the subject of this study, will approach on parameters the collaborative replenishment model needs to input and combine evolution strategies with tabu search to establish a replenishment model under the process of CPFR.

Business Administration, Business Process and Supply Chain Management Degree Project (master), 15 higher education points, 4FE06E, Spring 2013 Authors: Jeremy Bellina, Olegs Bodins, Soeren Krieger and Mathilde Olivier Tutor: Roger Stokkedal Title: Managing Upstream Supply Chain in Order to Decrease Inventory Level: A Case Study on the Paper Merchant Papyrus Sweden. Background: The research is based on Papyrus Sweden, a paper merchant, which is facing a decrease in the demand of paper products. It was identified that inventory level reduction is now crucial for the company in order to stay in the market. Therefore, Papyrus Sweden is focused on inventory level and tied-up capital reduction in order to decrease costs and increase net profit. Purpose: This thesis aims to analyze the current situation in Papyrus Sweden in terms of inventory level and activities related to suppliers, and prepare recommendations which could help Papyrus Sweden to reduce its inventory level. Method: The data has been collected through interviews with managers from the supply chain department as well as through a data sample from Papyrus Sweden database given to the researchers. All data was analyzed and compared with the literature review. Data received from the database was processed and transformed in Microsoft Excel in order to make the analysis. Results: The analysis identifies issues in material planning methods, safety stock calculation, ABC-XYZ classification and forecast calculation, on which Papyrus Sweden could act in order to decrease its inventory level. Furthermore, the researchers identify two solutions Papyrus Sweden could implement with its suppliers in order to reduce inventory level which are a Service Level Agreement and a Vendor Managed Inventory system. Keywords: inventory level, material planning method, safety stock, ABC-XYZ classification, forecast calculation, replenishment lead time, supplier relationship, information sharing, Service Level Agreement (SLA), Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) and Collaborative planning, forecast and replenishment system (CPFR).