Since the adoption of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the Canadian dollar has come to be regarded as a petro-currency. Consequently, rising prices of oil and gas (as well as other natural resources) would increase capital inflows that would lead to a higher exchange rate and contribute to the decimation of the export-oriented Canadian manufacturing sector by making Canadian products less competitive internationally. Some have argued that the Canadian economy has started to show symptoms related to the Dutch Disease. One important symptom is the slow rate of productivity growth, which consequently leads to the theory that Canada’s productivity performance depends significantly on the foreign exchange value of the domestic currency. This dissertation attempts to address these issues and seeks to solve the question of whether the Canadian economy is suffering from the Dutch Disease, as well as whether or not movements of the Canadian dollar are responsible for the low Canadian productivity growth since the 1990s.

This thesis seeks to verify the concept of so-called resource curse at the beginning of the new millennium. The theoretical part defines the symptoms of the alleged curse, curse transmission channels and criticism of the concept. Compared to other studies dealing with the theme of the resource curse this work is not focused on just one transmission channel. The practical part verifies several hypotheses established by comparing research papers on impacts of natural resources. The validity of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis, Dutch disease symptoms and a negative impact on political institutions (inclination toward authoritarianism, high level of corruption, high government spending, low efficiency of economic and political decision-making and low investment in education) is verified. For the analysis have been selected two African countries (Nigeria and Botswana) and two advanced countries (Canada and Norway). The last part of this thesis provides policy implications. The results confirm the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis for selected commodities in the long term and some of the symptoms of Dutch disease at the beginning of the new millennium. Hypotheses regarding the impact on the political institutions have not been confirmed, since the results varied across the countries. The high vulnerability of the countries to movements in commodity prices was found.

Diplom thesis discusses a question of influence of mineral resources on politics and economics in chosen countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. The paradox of low economic development of many resource rich countries significantly engaged in international trade is often discussed by economic experts. I decided to focus on Sub-Saharan Africa because I consider this region to be unable to fully use its potential for economic development despite being very rich in natural resources.Target of this thesis is to find out which natural resources exist in chosen countires, how the countries manage them, how successfull their economic development is, which problems they currently handle and how their current situation is related to their historic, cultural and politic background. For the purpose of my thesis I have chosen Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo and Botswana.

Les guerres civiles en Afrique sont multiples, désastreuses et multicausales. Cependant les analyses privilégient fréquemment les causes identitaires liées à l‟ethnique ou à des faits historiques. Il est proposé ici, une analyse différente par une approche économique. Si au sens de l‟économie classique ou néoclassique, les ressources naturelles sont une dotation constituant un avantage absolu ou comparatif, en Afrique, elles contribuent à alimenter les guerres intra-étatiques pénalisant ainsi tout effort de développement. L‟exploitation d‟uranium au Niger, loin de permettre une performance économique grâce aux revenus qu‟elle génère, représente a contrario une double source de « malédiction » : Conforme au « syndrome hollandais » accompagné de la médiocrité économique qui le caractérise mais constitue également un enjeu autour duquel se fonde la rébellion armée. / The civil wars in Africa are multiple, disastrous and multicausal. However analyses privilege frequently the identical causes connected to the ethnic or to the historic facts. It is proposed here, a different analysis by an economic approach. If in the sense of the classic or neo-classic economy, natural resources are an endowment constituting an absolute or comparative advantage, in Africa, they contribute to feed the intra-state wars punishing any effort of development. The exploitation of uranium in Niger, far from allowing an economic performance thanks to the income which it generates, represents a double source of "curse": in compliance with the "dutch disease" accompanied with the economic mediocrity which characterizes it but also constitutes a stake in which bases the armed rebellion.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Gerson Alves de Freitas Jr.pdf: 815407 bytes, checksum: 56e12a88b678dd692f6fae8381118ad9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-10-01 / The aim of this work is to revisit the debate surrounding the role of natural resources in economic development. This is an exploratory essay, which examines theses and stylized facts on the topic especially those that establish a negative relationship between natural resource endowment and economic growth in light of structural changes in the global economy and the rise in international primary product prices in the last decade. Its first conclusion is that there isn t any conclusive literary evidence of the so-called "resource curse," although some of the assumptions associated with it, such as the existence of a secular trend of decline in terms of the primary goods trade, have been proven true in the past century although, perhaps, not in the 21st century so far. The technical and economic characteristics of the current globalization process suggest, on the other hand, an increasing trend of dynamic natural resource markets, which may represent a window of opportunity for commodity-rich economies / O objetivo desse trabalho é revisitar o debate sobre o papel dos recursos naturais no desenvolvimento econômico. Trata-se de uma pesquisa exploratória, de caráter ensaístico, que analisa teses e fatos estilizados sobre o tema sobretudo aqueles que estabelecem uma relação negativa entre a dotação de recursos naturais e o crescimento econômico à luz das mudanças estruturais na economia mundial e à alta nos preços internacionais dos produtos primários na última década. Sua primeira conclusão é que não há, na literatura, trabalhos capazes de atestar de maneira conclusiva a maldição dos recursos naturais , embora alguns dos pressupostos a ela associados, tal como a existência de uma tendência secular de queda nos termos de troca dos produtos primários, tenham se mostrado verdadeiras no século passado ainda que não o sejam nesse curto começo do século 21. As características técnicas e econômicas do atual processo de globalização sugerem, pelo contrário, uma tendência crescente de dinamização dos mercados de recursos naturais, o que pode representar uma janela de oportunidades para economias ricas em produtos primários

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Jackeline Bertuolo Barron Guerra Vicente.pdf: 2125197 bytes, checksum: 4396583e4ad1516ef106634da02b97a2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-12 / This work aims at analysing the impacts associated with oil extraction from the Brazilian pre-salt layers, particularly those concerning the balance of trade, the Dutch disease and the deindustrialization process. We present data indicating that Brazil is facing a deindustrialization process due, to a great extent, to the effects of the Dutch disease, which is evident from the reduction of the manufacturing sector s contribution to GDP and from the increasing importance of primary goods exports in the export basket. We consider the potential for wealth creation, the negative impacts associated with oil extraction from pre-salt layers and suggest some alternatives to minimize such impacts. Hence, in order to avoid further aggravation of foreign exchange and deindustrialization problems due to pre-salt oil exports, we present a number of suggested measures, with an emphasis on consistent industrial policies, capable of stimulating various segments, thus reverting the deindustrialization process and directing pre-salt revenues towards the country s social and economic development. Petrobras, the state-owned oil sector company, has played and still plays a strategic role in pre-salt oil discovery and extraction. Moreover, it can be used to foster investments as a way of stimulating the development of its corresponding chain of goods and services / O trabalho tem por objetivo analisar os impactos da exploração do petróleo das camadas do pré-sal brasileiro, especialmente no que se refere à balança comercial, à doença holandesa e ao processo de desindustrialização. São apresentados dados que indicam que o Brasil enfrenta um processo de desindustrialização, em boa parte causado pelos efeitos da doença holandesa, verificado pela redução da participação da indústria manufatureira na composição do PIB e pela reprimarização da pauta de exportação. Avalia-se a potencial riqueza a ser gerada, os impactos negativos da exploração do pré-sal e sugere-se algumas alternativas para reduzir tais impactos. Assim, para evitar que os problemas cambiais e também da desindustrialização se agravem devido ao resultado das exportações do petróleo do pré-sal, são apresentadas algumas discussões para a utilização dos recursos, com ênfase para a instituição de uma política industrial consistente, capaz de estimular vários segmentos, que reverta o processo de desindustrialização e destine as rendas do pré-sal para o desenvolvimento social e econômico do país. A Petrobras, estatal do setor de petróleo, teve e tem um papel estratégico na descoberta e produção do petróleo do pré-sal. Ademais, pode ser utilizada como indutora dos investimentos de modo a estimular o desenvolvimento de toda a cadeia de bens e serviços a ela associada

Foreign aid is a major flow of income into sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, averaging roughly 12% of GDP over the last four decades. Yet, SSA countries are characterized by very low per capita output, low human capital attainment, and widespread poverty. This dissertation investigates the macroeconomic and welfare effects of foreign aid to SSA countries. The empirical part of the dissertation studies 22 SSA countries, and uses a cointegrated vector autoregressive analysis (CVAR). This methodology identifies long-run effects without imposing strong statistical priors. I introduce tradable and non-tradable sectors into the analysis to determine if the so-called “Dutch Disease” is the reason for the plight of SSA countries. “Dutch Disease” occurs when a positive shock to foreign aid perversely reduces GDP, by decreasing the relative price of tradable to nontradable goods, thus reducing the size of the tradable sector. While I find that aid reduces GDP in eight countries, this result is inconsistent with the “Dutch Disease” as it is not accompanied by large relative price changes. The analysis controls for a number of country-specific characteristics including extraordinary events. Overall, I find non-positive impacts of foreign aid on GDP and the tradable sector, with a few exceptions. I also consider the reverse causal channel and test whether country-specific macroeconomic variables drive foreign aid flows. I find that GDP, tradable output, and tradable and non-tradable goods prices do affect the amount of aid a country receives in 15 countries. These variables have no impact on foreign aid (aid is considered as weakly exogenous) in six countries. The theoretical part of the dissertation develops two dynamic stochastic general equilibrium — real business cycle — (DSGE-RBC) models to analyze the effects of foreign aid on human capital investment and the business cycle. The distinguishing feature of the models is to embed a human capital investment in a small open economy model of Mendoza (1991). The first model considers one-sector DSGE model, which is followed by two-sector (tradable and non-tradable) DSGE model. Both models distinguish between physical and human capital investment and allow for labor-leisure choice. In the analysis, labor supply and time spent studying or acquiring skills are optimally chosen. The models are calibrated to match the key features of the Kenyan economy. In both models, a positive aid shock initially has a negative impact on labor supply and output. However, the shock subsequently has a positive effect on physical and human capital investment, and time spent studying. This is due to a positive income effect from the shock. A rise in foreign aid increases consumption; consumption smoothing across periods raises physical and human capital investment, labor productivity, and output. I also find that reducing the volatility of aid has a significant positive effect on human capital investment and welfare. Policymakers should focus on reducing the volatility of foreign aid and not solely concentrate on the average level of aid. The analysis of the two-sector DSGE-RBC model incorporates the role for the “Dutch Disease” mechanism. Consistent with the “Dutch Disease”, I find that a shock to foreign aid appreciates the relative price of non-tradable goods that causes the factors of production to reallocate from the tradable sector to the non-tradable sector, leading to a decline in GDP and the tradable output. Finding the “Dutch Disease” result here is not necessarily at odds with the CVAR estimation results as the DSGE-RBC simulation is a short-run analysis and the CVAR estimation is a long-run analysis. / Graduate

No description available.

La dépendance aux ressources naturelles entraîne de nombreux défis pour les décideurs publics. Fort de ce constat, se pose avec acuité la question suivante: dans quelle mesure les gouvernements des pays d’Afrique sub-Saharienne sont à même d’employer leurs leviers de politiques fiscales et monétaires afin de limiter les effets négatifs de la dépendance aux ressources naturelles et d’entraîner un cercle économique vertueux? Le second chapitre de la thèse distingue les mécanismes de court terme et de long terme de la dépendance aux ressources naturelles en utilisant une approche en deux temps: d’abord les variables explicatives sont cointégrées pour établir les relations de long terme puis un modèle à correction d’erreur est estimé pour capter les relations de court terme de retour à l’équilibre.Sur le long terme, l’effet négatif de la dépendance est confirmé. Cependant, les pays dotés d’institutions de mauvaise qualité sont plus vulnérables car non seulement ils subissent l’impact de long terme mais la dépendance aux ressources affecte négativement le processus de retour à l’équilibre sur le court terme. Enfin, les résultats montrent que dans le cadre d’institutions de qualité supérieure, la dépendance aux ressources naturelles peut avoir un impact positif sur la reprise économique. Dans un troisième chapitre, un modèle pvar compare les intéractions macro-économiques dans la zone monétaire franc CFA, ancré à l’euro, par rapport aux pays comparables hors zone franc CFA. En prenant en compte la forte présence de matières premières dans leurs exportations, les résultats montrent que la zone franc CFA ne subit pas de perte de compétitivité de par son appartenance à une zone monétaire. En revanche, les investissements directs de l’étranger n’entraînent pas des effets positifs sur la croissance de la même ampleur que ceux observés hors de la zone franc CFA. Le quatrième chapitre contribue à la littérature associée à la gestion optimale des ressources fiscales, notamment dans le cadre d’un boom des matières premières. Les résultats montrent que dans le cadre d’un accès réduit aux marchés de capitaux, les périodes de boom de matières premières sont des opportunités capitales pour stimuler la croissance via l’investissement public, alors que les contraintes fiscales sont temporairement relâchées. Toutefois, l’efficacité de ces accroissements d’investissement est conditionnelle à un niveau d’endettement public soutenable. / This thesis belongs to the literature on natural resource dependence and brings a new perspective by focusing on the sub-Saharan African region. This dependence introduces numerous challenges for policy makers both in terms of fiscal and monetary policy. The main research question explored in this thesis is the following : to which extent sub- Saharan African governments can rely on fiscal and monetary policies to mitigate the adverse impacts of commodity dependence and trigger positive spillover and achieve sustainable growth? The second chapter of the thesis unfolds short-term versus long-term mechanisms of the resource curse by using a two-step analysis: an error-correction model is performed after co-integrating the explana- tory variables. Main findings highlight the crucial role of institutions. On the long run, the negative impact of the dependence is confirmed independently of the institution quality. However, countries with weak institutions are more vulnerable to the curse because the re- source dependence not only negatively impacts long-term growth but also adversely impacts the recovery process. Finally, in a strong in- stitutional environment, results points to a potential positive impact of natural resources during recovery process. In the third chapter, a panel vector auto-regressive model compares macro-economic interactions in the pegged CFA monetary union versus a comparable sample. Considering their export structure dominated by raw commodities, results suggests that the CFA zone members do not suffer from a loss of competitiveness from belonging to the monetary union. However, foreign direct investments fail to generate the same spillover effect in the CFA zone compared to non-CFA countries. The forth chapter provides insights on the optimal management of fiscal resources, especially during a windfall period. Growth elasticities of different government choices regarding revenue allocation is performed. Results show that in a con- text of limited access to capital, resource windfall are considered as a crucial opportunity to scale up investment. In fact, below a level of public capital stock (estimated around 750 USD per capita), public investment during a boom has a four-fold higher impact on growth than above the threshold. This scaling up is conditional on low levels of public debt: countries featuring unsustainable public debt levels should prioritize the restoration of stronger foreign reserves

Minerals are important natural resources and their development is a historically old, yet new, idea for creating economic prosperity in developing countries. Various researchers have evolved several arguments regarding the impact of mineral resources on development and growth, but they have yet to furnish a practical method of economic evaluation of mineral resources development. This thesis focuses on the economic impact of mineral resource development in a small developing country in the South Pacific Region, namely Fiji. Fiji has expectations and faces challenges in its natural resources development. The Namosi project, a large copper-gold mine development, has been proposed and is under consideration by the Fijian government, who is deliberating on whether mining resources should be developed as a means to add to its prosperity and economic growth or alternatively conserved from the standpoint of the environment and stability. In this study, four significant issues are analyzed viz.: 1) Whether the Namosi mine development project gives a positive net private return. 2) Whether the predicted amount of revenue flowing to the Fijian government from the Namosi mine development exceeds the estimated external cost (in this case, environmental cost) from its development. 3) The impacts of the project on various levels of the Fijian economy, and whether the mine development in Fiji results in an enclave industry; and whether mining has strong or weak backward and forward production linkages with the rest of the Fijian economy. 4) Whether “Dutch disease” will ensue from mining development in Fiji and its level of severity. Regarding issue 1) above, Private Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is conducted by applying the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method to evaluate the Namosi mining project based on financial projections. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted in order to allow for possible variations in copper and gold prices. This analysis indicates that given the anticipated metal prices, private returns from this mining development are likely to be positive. Indeed, the current high metal prices would lead to high private returns. Regarding issue 2) above, Social Cost-Benefit Analyses are attempted. Under the given circumstances, the results show that the benefits of the mine project, as a whole for its 29-year life, substantially outweigh the environmental costs of the project to Fiji. However, due to a lack of available data on the economic magnitude of environmental spillovers, only estimates of environmental costs of the Namosi mining development could be made. Regarding issue 3) above, Input-Output model analysis is performed. Fiji’s total output (without production from the Namosi mine) is found to be F$5,529.917 million. It is estimated that the Namosi project will increase the output of Fiji directly by F$465.574 million (which includes the production inducement effect) and will result in an increase of F$543.788 million in overall Fijian output (GDP). This increase will also be followed by an increased output of about F$10-30 million in related industries, such as in the commerce, transport, and insurance sectors. Based on this Input-Output analysis, it is found that Fiji’s mining sector is an export-oriented enclave industry and that the mining industry itself has very little influence on economic activity in other sectors of the economy. Regarding issue 4) above, the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model analysis is applied. Evidence of the likely occurrence of Dutch disease can be detected from output indicators of each industry, consumer prices and exports. Examples of Dutch disease are as follows: a decrease in output of agricultural industries and in export-oriented domestic industries; an increase in consumer prices (inflation); a decrease of exports both in exportable agricultural products and in manufactured products oriented to exports. However, several macro-variables improve, such as employees’ income, trade (exports and imports), tax revenue, tariff revenue, VAT revenue, government account (savings and expenditure) and GDP etc. These results suggest that there could be a major increase in national welfare. Thus, from an economics point of view, it has been found (by comparing gains in Fijian government revenue with potential Fijian environmental costs) that it is very likely that development of the Namosi mine will result in a net social gain to Fiji. These results are based on the application of principles of social cost-benefit analysis and indicate that a Kaldor-Hicks improvement (a potential Pareto improvement) is likely for Fiji as a result of the mining development. This means that from the predicted net revenue gains of the Fijian government from mining, those who suffer environmental losses would be compensated and the government would still have some extra revenue left over. An actual Paretian improvement is also possible.