This research work focuses on the optimal algorithms of decision making and forecasting respectively, in order to achieve a better prediction. Decision making techniques and forecasting methods are investigated due to the poor accuracy of forecasting in comparison with real world data. The uncertainty of real world data leads to the use of type-1 fuzzy sets, type-2 fuzzy sets, fuzzy decision tree and fuzzy time-series for fuzzy data-mining - to which they are applied for the look-ahead based interval-valued fuzzy decision tree with optimal perimeter of the neighbourhood (LAIVFDT-OPN) model, and high-order type-2 fuzzy time series (HO-T2FTS) model. In the experiment with a real world business, a ‘computerised maintenance integration management system’ (CMIMS) is constructed as a simulation model for a case study. The CMIMS model consists of the LAIVFDT-OPN and HO-T2FTS models. It is also applied to a set of real world data from a factory in Thailand. Due to the significant uncertainty involved in machine maintenance, most tasks in machine diagnosis are still carried out manually by technicians. In this research, a prototype of CMIMS employing fuzzy data mining to diagnose machine maintenance is constructed. Considering the special features of machine maintenance data, fuzzy decision trees and fuzzy time series are adopted in the proposal method. To represent the uncertain fuzzy memberships, interval-valued fuzzy decision trees are proposed and an optimal neighbourhood perimeter is defined for look-ahead fuzzy decision trees. Based on the existing first-order type-2 time-series and high-order type-1 fuzzy time series, an improved high-order type-2 fuzzy time series method is put forward. In this case study, the CMIMS model can be used to analyse and evaluate uncertain data. It also can be employed to facilitate decision making in machine equipment status, and forecast machine maintenance plan in the future in stead of technicians. Our results demonstrated that the proposal method is effective in fuzzy decision support for machine maintenance.

This thesis describes the development and application of a decision support system for logistics strategy modelling. The decision support system that is developed enables the modelling of logistics systems at a strategic level for any country or area in the world. The model runs on IBM PC or compatible computers under DOS (disk operating system). The decision support system uses colour graphics to represent the different physical functions of a logistics system. The graphics of the system is machine independent. The model displays on the screen the map of the area or country which is being considered for logistic planning. The decision support system is hybrid in term of algorithm. It employs optimisation for allocation. The customers are allocated by building a network path from customer to the source points taking into consideration all the production and throughput constraints on factories, distribution depots and transshipment points. The system uses computer graphic visually interactive heuristics to find the best possible location for distribution depots and transshipment points. In a one depot system it gives the optimum solution but where more than one depot is involved, the optimum solution is not guaranteed. The developed model is a cost-driven model. It represents all the logistics system costs in their proper form. Its solution very much depends on the relationship between all the costs. The locations of depots and transshipment points depend on the relationship between inbound and outbound transportation costs. The model has been validated on real world problems, some of which are described here. The advantages of such a decision support system for the formulation of a problem are discussed. Also discussed is the contribution of such an approach at the validation and solution presentation stages.

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The thesis reports a research programme designed to answer two research questions. These are concerned with improving the practice of Visual Interactive Modelling in the context of an Operational Research activity and the potential contribution of Visual Interactive Modelling towards overcoming certain long term concerns which the Operational Research community has regarding the service it provides. The literature of Visual Interactive Modelling is reviewed, as is that of wider aspects of Operational Research concerned with the paradigm used by its practitioners and researchers. Two series of experimental studies are undertaken to collect data to help answer the research questions. Action Research is used for a series of six studies of Visual Interactive Modelling cases. The second series is more laboratory based to gain a type of data which is not available from Action Research. Results are presented in three forms. A 'body of experience' is collated from the data collected during the studies. This will form a base for future researchers in the Visual Interactive Modelling field. Secondly, a series of guidelines is tentatively proposed which could be used by practitioners as a basis for good practice in Visual Interactive Modelling. Finally, in the light of the data collected and reviews of the literature, a new way of considering the contribution of Visual Interactive Modelling to the Operational Research process is proposed. Suggestions for further research are offered.

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by Wong Ho Kam. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1989. / Bibliography: leaves 61-64.

Context: Rectal cancer treatment decisions involve tradeoffs between outcomes like living with a permanent stoma versus long-term bowel dysfunction. The needs of rectal cancer patients and practitioners to partake in shared decision making are unknown. For such a complex decision, a patient decision aid that prepares patients to make informed, values-based decisions is warranted. Methods: 1) A systematic review, to characterize the prevalence of long-term dysfunction 2) Needs assessments, conducted with rectal cancer patients and practitioners, 3) Development of a decision aid. Results: 1) Significant variability exists in reporting rectal cancer outcomes. The rate of bowel dysfunction is high. 2) Rectal cancer patients recall little of the outcomes discussed preoperatively. They do not perceive having any surgical options. Practitioners are inconsistently engaging patients in shared decision-making. 3) A patient decision aid was developed that a) incorporated systematic review results and; b) addressed the needs, barriers and facilitators raised. Conclusions: Shared decision-making in rectal cancer surgery is limited. A decision aid to improve patient decision-making was developed.

Context: Rectal cancer treatment decisions involve tradeoffs between outcomes like living with a permanent stoma versus long-term bowel dysfunction. The needs of rectal cancer patients and practitioners to partake in shared decision making are unknown. For such a complex decision, a patient decision aid that prepares patients to make informed, values-based decisions is warranted. Methods: 1) A systematic review, to characterize the prevalence of long-term dysfunction 2) Needs assessments, conducted with rectal cancer patients and practitioners, 3) Development of a decision aid. Results: 1) Significant variability exists in reporting rectal cancer outcomes. The rate of bowel dysfunction is high. 2) Rectal cancer patients recall little of the outcomes discussed preoperatively. They do not perceive having any surgical options. Practitioners are inconsistently engaging patients in shared decision-making. 3) A patient decision aid was developed that a) incorporated systematic review results and; b) addressed the needs, barriers and facilitators raised. Conclusions: Shared decision-making in rectal cancer surgery is limited. A decision aid to improve patient decision-making was developed.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2001. / Title from first page of PDF file. Document formatted into pages; contains xiv, 170 p.). Includes abstract and vita. Advisor: J.F. Rathman, Dept. of Chemical Engineering. Includes bibliographical references (p. 163-165).