This thesis studies the interaction between new and used durable goods without physical depreciation. In product categories such as CDs/DVDs and video games, the competition from used goods markets has been viewed as a serious problem by producers. These products physically depreciate negligibly, but owners' consumption values could depreciate quickly due to satiation. Consequently, used goods that are almost identical to new goods may become available immediately after a new product release. However, the existence of used goods markets also provides consumers with a selling opportunity. If consumers are forward-looking and account for the future resale value of a product in their buying decision, used goods markets could increase the sales of new goods. Thus, whether used good markets are harmful or beneficial to new-good producers is an empirical question. To tackle this question, I extend the previous literature in three ways. First, I assemble a new data set from the Japanese video game market. This unique data set includes not only the sales and prices of new and used goods, but also the resale value of used copies, the quantity of used copies retailers purchased from consumers, and the inventory level of used copies at retailers. Second, I develop a structural model of forward-looking consumers that incorporates (i) new and used goods buying decisions, (ii) used goods selling decisions, (iii) consumer expectations about future prices of new and used goods as well as resale values of used goods, and (iv) the depreciation of both owners' and potential buyers' consumption values. Third, I develop a new Bayesian estimation method to estimate my model. In particular, my method can alleviate the computational burden of estimating non-stationary discrete choice dynamic programming models with continuous state variables that evolve stochastically over time. The estimation results suggest that consumers are forward-looking in the Japanese video game market and the substitutability between new and used video games is quite low. Using the estimates, I quantify the impact of eliminating the used video game market on new-game revenues. I find that the elimination of used video game market could reduce the revenue for a new game.

This thesis studies the interaction between new and used durable goods without physical depreciation. In product categories such as CDs/DVDs and video games, the competition from used goods markets has been viewed as a serious problem by producers. These products physically depreciate negligibly, but owners' consumption values could depreciate quickly due to satiation. Consequently, used goods that are almost identical to new goods may become available immediately after a new product release. However, the existence of used goods markets also provides consumers with a selling opportunity. If consumers are forward-looking and account for the future resale value of a product in their buying decision, used goods markets could increase the sales of new goods. Thus, whether used good markets are harmful or beneficial to new-good producers is an empirical question. To tackle this question, I extend the previous literature in three ways. First, I assemble a new data set from the Japanese video game market. This unique data set includes not only the sales and prices of new and used goods, but also the resale value of used copies, the quantity of used copies retailers purchased from consumers, and the inventory level of used copies at retailers. Second, I develop a structural model of forward-looking consumers that incorporates (i) new and used goods buying decisions, (ii) used goods selling decisions, (iii) consumer expectations about future prices of new and used goods as well as resale values of used goods, and (iv) the depreciation of both owners' and potential buyers' consumption values. Third, I develop a new Bayesian estimation method to estimate my model. In particular, my method can alleviate the computational burden of estimating non-stationary discrete choice dynamic programming models with continuous state variables that evolve stochastically over time. The estimation results suggest that consumers are forward-looking in the Japanese video game market and the substitutability between new and used video games is quite low. Using the estimates, I quantify the impact of eliminating the used video game market on new-game revenues. I find that the elimination of used video game market could reduce the revenue for a new game.

La imagen corporativa se constituye como un activo intangible fuente de ventajas competitivas que debe ser correctamente gestionado para extraerle todo su potencial. Partiendo de una revisión de literatura sobre imagen e identidad, la Tesis profundiza en el carácter multidimensional de la imagen y en las variables que influyen en la misma. Para ello se plantean diversas hipótesis referidas a los determinantes de la elección de empresa con mejor imagen global, desarrollando al respecto un modelo de elección discreta cuyos datos se toman de una investigación de mercados centrada en el mercado de la telefonía móvil. Como resultado, se obtiene el importante peso de la dimensión comercial a la hora de valorar a una compañía como la de mejor valoración global, así como del conocimiento y la familiaridad. Por otra parte, la comunicación publicitaria e interpersonal tiene un efecto más significativo en el caso de las empresas menos notorias.

Dopo l’analisi delle modalità di misurazione del potere di mercato e della competizione tra brand nel contesto di un mercato caratterizzato dalla presenza di prodotti differenziati, viene presentata l’applicazione dei modelli a scelta discreta nel mercato del latte alimentare in Italia. Ho utilizzato dati scanner per analizzare i comportamenti nelle scelte di acquisto dei consumatori e le dinamiche competitive tra i due maggiori brand presenti nel mercato e le marche commerciali. Ho considerato il mercato del latte alimentare suddiviso in due sottocategorie, quella del latte a lunga conservazione (UHT) e quella del latte refrigerato. Ho quindi proceduto alla stima della domanda del latte alimentare utilizzando un nested logit model, appartenente alla categoria dei modelli a scelta discreta. Utilizzando i coefficienti stimati è possibile sia calcolare le elasticità di sostituzione tra i diversi brand e le elasticità dirette, nonché i margini di profitto dei brand presi in analisi considerando differenze nelle strategie di prezzo e nella struttura di mercato. / This work first gives an overview of the measurement of market power and brand competition in a differentiated products market, secondly applies discrete choice models to asses the Italian milk market. I use scanner data to estimate consumer purchasing decisions and competitive relationships between two major industry-level brands and (as a third category) supermarket private labels. I divide all milk sold in Italian market into two distinct classes of products: “UHT” and “Refrigerated” milk. I employ a well-known “discrete choice” nested-logit model to estimate consumer demand. Then, using the estimated coefficients, it is possible to calculate both consumer substitution patterns between products, and the profit-margins of the three major retail-level brands across the different sub-categories of milk under different pricing strategies and market structure.

Στην παρούσα διπλωματική εργασία διερευνήθηκε η επιλογή των πρωτοετών φοιτητών αναφορικά με το τμήμα της πανεπιστημιακής τους εκπαίδευσης στην Ελλάδα. Ειδικότερα, αυτή η επιλογή αξιολογείται μέσω δυο μεταβλητών. Η πρώτη αφορά το αντικείμενο σπουδών με βάση το επιστημονικό περιεχόμενο του προγράμματος σπουδών και η δεύτερη αφορά τις προεξοφλημένες αποδόσεις ανά αντικείμενο σπουδών. Για λόγους εκτίμησης χρησιμοποιήθηκαν δεδομένα για το έτος 2006 από το Ατομικό Δελτίο Φοιτητή-Σπουδαστή της Ελληνικής Στατιστικής Αρχής (Ελ.ΣΤΑΤ) και εφαρμόστηκαν υποδείγματα διακριτής επιλογής με διάταξη (ordered probit) αλλά και χωρίς διάταξη (binary probit). Ως επεξηγηματικές μεταβλητές χρησιμοποιήθηκαν το επίπεδο εκπαίδευσης, το επάγγελμα των γονέων και μια ευρεία δέσμη δημογραφικών μεταβλητών (ηλικία, φύλο, τόπος γέννησης, κ.λπ.). Όπως προέκυψε από τα αποτελέσματα της οικονομετρικής ανάλυσης η επιλογή του πανεπιστημιακού τμήματος (είτε με βάση το αντικείμενο σπουδών είτε με βάση τις προεξοφλημένες αποδόσεις) επηρεάζεται σημαντικά από το οικογενειακό υπόβαθρο (εκπαίδευση, επάγγελμα) του πρωτοετή φοιτητή. Επίσης, διερευνήθηκε η σχέση μεταξύ του οικογενειακού εισοδήματος και της επιλογής πανεπιστημιακού τμήματος με βάση τις μελλοντικές αποδόσεις και βρέθηκε να υπάρχει μια θετική και στατιστικά σημαντική σχέση μεταξύ αυτών των δυο μεταβλητών. Με βάση τα αποτελέσματα της παρούσας εργασίας, η δια-γενεακή κινητικότητα στην Ελλάδα (που σχετίζεται με την επιλογή του πανεπιστημιακού τμήματος από τους πρωτοετείς φοιτητές) αναμένεται να είναι χαμηλή. / In this thesis is investigated the choice of the university major of study of the Greek freshmen. Specifically, this choice of major is assessed through two variables. The first is the object of study based on the scientific content of the curriculum and the second is the discounted returns of education per major of study. For assessment purposes we used data for the year 2006 from the Greek statistic authority (el.stat)and we applied discrete choice models by order (ordered probit) and also without order (binary probit). As explanatory variables are used the educational attainment and occupation of parents as well as a wide range of demographic variables (age,sex,place of birth, etc). As the results of the econometric analysis demonstrate the choice of university department(regardless the type of the discrete choice model we use) is significantly influenced by the family background and their social class. It is also investigated the relationship between family income and choice of university department based on future earnings and is found to be a positive and statistically significant relationship between these two variables. Based on the results of this study the intergenerational mobility in Greece (associated with the major of study the freshmen choose) is expected to be low.

Submitted by Ricardo Barros de Aquino Fonseca (ricardobafonseca@gmail.com) on 2017-06-28T06:01:34Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Ricardo_Fonseca_Dissertacao.pdf: 1923906 bytes, checksum: 31859d5e2f131b25276d0fc435835757 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2017-06-30T12:38:04Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Ricardo_Fonseca_Dissertacao.pdf: 1923906 bytes, checksum: 31859d5e2f131b25276d0fc435835757 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-04T18:13:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ricardo_Fonseca_Dissertacao.pdf: 1923906 bytes, checksum: 31859d5e2f131b25276d0fc435835757 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-03-28 / I test for the existence of moral hazard and adverse selection in the Brazilian health insurance market. I use the positive correlation test, proposed by Chiappori and Salanié (2000), to assess the existence of asymmetric information in this market. I estimate the effect of health plan on treatment usage, controlling for many variables (measured blood pressure, age, smoker, etc.), identifying the effect of the plan. I use this coefficients as plan characteristics and estimate their effects on plan purchase using a simple logit regression. The coefficients from this estimation show the relative importance of anticipated moral hazard of different treatments on health plan choice. I find evidence of asymmetric information in the market for every state, in either the Metropolitan Area or not, and for the country as a whole. When performing the positive correlation test using hospitalizations as the usage variable, where moral hazard is assumed to be controlled, I find this evidence only for young women and for the last age group (59 years or more). I find no evidence of asymmetric information for plans paid through work, as expected. Several treatments are used more by people with plans, even when controlling for adverse selection. The analysis suggests that some of those are relevant for plan purchase.

Em junho de 2013, o reajuste de R$ 0,20 na tarifa de ônibus gerou uma série de manifestações populares no país que acabaram fazendo alguns governos, como o da cidade de São Paulo, voltarem atrás e arcarem com essa diferença com as empresas de ônibus. Visto isso, o prefeito de São Paulo, Fernando Haddad, propôs uma política de municipalização de um tributo imposto sobre a gasolina, a CIDE, para financiar o transporte público urbano. Nesse contexto, foi encomendada uma pesquisa a Fundação Getúlio Vargas para responder a magnitude do impacto desse subsídio cruzado entre usuários do transporte privado e coletivo. Esse trabalho utiliza o resultado encontrado por essa pesquisa para responder qual o efeito sobre o tráfego da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo utilizando dados da Pesquisa de Origem e Destino de 2007. Os resultados encontrados mostram que a política de subsídio cruzado proporciona um baixo deslocamento no fluxo dos modos de transporte. Além disso, a análise de bem estar da política mostra que os mais favorecidos são os indivíduos de baixa renda. A estimação é feita com base em dois modelos de escolha discreta (Multinomial e Mixed Logit), separada por dois motivos de viagem: trabalho e estudo. E, as simulações de deslocamento de demanda utilizam dois valores de tributos, R$ 0,10 e R$ 0,50. / In June 2013, the increase of 0.20 BRL in bus fare has emerged a series of popular demonstrations in the country that ended up making some governments, such as the city of São Paulo, backtrack and pay out this difference with the buses company. So, the mayor of São Paulo, Fernando Haddad, proposed a policy of decentralization of a tax imposed on gasoline, CIDE, to finance urban public transport. In this context, a report was commissioned to Fundação Getúlio Vargas to respond the magnitude of the impact of cross-subsidy between users of private and collective transport. This work uses the results found in this report to answer the effect on traffic in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo using data from the Source and Destination Survey of 2007. Results show that the cross-subsidy policy provides a low offset in the flow modes of transport. Moreover, the analysis of welfare policy shows that the most favored are the low-income individuals. The estimation is based on two discrete choice models (Multinomial and Mixed Logit), separate for two reasons of trips: work and study. And the simulations of displacement demand use two values of taxes, 0.10 and 0.50 BRL.

Esta pesquisa investiga os determinantes e a evolução recente no Brasil do trabalho remunerado feminino exercido no próprio domicílio ou simplesmente trabalho domiciliar. Quase 10% da população feminina ocupada, aproximadamente 4,5 milhões de mulheres, tem esse tipo de ocupação. Constatando a inexistência de estudos sobre o tema com dados quantitativos abrangentes, a presente pesquisa utiliza informações da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostras Domiciliares (PNAD) de 1992 a 2005 para analisar como evoluiu a proporção de trabalhadoras domiciliares no total da população ocupada. As mais importantes hipóteses delineadas na literatura a partir de estudos de caso são discutidas pela confrontação com os dados. Sob a ótica da demanda por essa forma de trabalho, analisa-se os setores que mais fazem uso do trabalho domiciliar feminino e as mudanças nessa composição, bem como sua relação com as transformações no mundo do trabalho decorrentes da reestruturação empresarial. Quanto à oferta por trabalho domiciliar, investiga-se como atributos individuais e familiares afetam as chances da mulher estar nesse tipo de condição de ocupação. É debatido como as transformações na inserção produtiva feminina afetaram a importância relativa do trabalho domiciliar. Constrói-se um modelo Logit Multinomial no Stata a partir dos dados da PNAD para comparar como mudou no tempo o impacto de cada atributo sobre a probabilidade de que uma mulher seja trabalhadora domiciliar. / This research investigates the determinants and recent developments of female home-based work in Brazil. Almost 10% of the occupied female population, approximately 4.5 million women, has this kind of occupation. Noting the lack of studies on the topic with comprehensive quantitative data, the present research uses information from PNAD beginning on 1992 until 2005 to evaluate how the proportion of female home-based workers on occupied population evolved. The most important assumptions outlined in the literature from case studies are discussed by confrontation with the data. From the perspective of demand for this type of work, sectors that intensively use female home-based work are analyzed, as well as its relationship with the changes in the labor market resulting from firms restructuring. On the supply of home-based work, it is investigated how individual and family attributes affect the chances of a woman to be in this work condition. It is discussed how the changes on female\'s productive insertion affected the relative importance of home-based work. A Multinomial Logit model is built on Stata using the data from PNAD to compare how the impacts of each attribute on the probability of a woman being home-based worker changed over time.

The diploma thesis is focused on predictive modeling in credit risk management. Banks and financial institutions are mainly interested in it to estimate the probability of client's default in order to make a decision about which client will be accepted and which client will be rejected. The theoretical part includes an introduction of credit scoring and a description of discrete choice models. The linear probability model, the probit model and the logit model are described in detail. The logit model is afterwards used for the prediction of client's default. The practical part is focused on a statistical description of the dataset and a description of how to work with it before we start with the development of the credit scoring model. After that follows the estimation of the model on testing sample, its testing and the estimation of the model on full sample with a description of individual steps of calculation and outputs of the program SPSS.

Das Ziel der Masterarbeit ist es zu klären, ob private Haushalte variable Strompreise akzeptieren und die Stärke der charakteristischen Merkmale zu ermitteln. Der dazu benötigte Datensatz wurde mit Hilfe einer Stated Choice Befragung im Internet ermittelt. Dafür wurden drei Gerätekategorien und ein Dreitarifmodell formuliert. Für die Auswertung wurde ein additiv verknüpftes Teilwert-Nutzenmodell und ein binäres Logit-Choice-Modell verwendet. Signifikante Variablen wurden über das Top-down-Verfahren bestimmt. Das Modell und die Schätzer der Preise wurden im Anschluss durch Hypothesentest getestet. Als signifikante Schätzer, mit stark negativen Werten, stellten sich in allen Kategorien die Preise heraus. Die Hypothesentests ergaben, dass es sinnvoll ist, die Schätzer der Preise für die ersten beiden Gerätetypen zusammenzufassen. Es stellte sich eine unterproportionale Preiselastizität der Nachfrage heraus und eine hohe Akzeptanz ein Teil der Geräte in den Nachtstunden zu nutzen. Insgesamt sprachen sich mehr Teilnehmer für ein Smart-Meter-Gateway aus als dagegen. / The aim of the master thesis is to clarify whether private households accept variable electricity prices and determine the strength of the characteristic attributes. The data set was determined with a Stated Choice survey on the Internet. For this purpose, three device categories and a three-tariff model were formulated. An additive-linked partial-value model and a binary logit choice model were used for the evaluation. Significant variables were determined by using the top-down method. Afterwards the model and the estimators of the prices were tested with statistical hypothesis testings. The price emerged as a significant estimator, with strongly negative values in all categories. The hypothesis tests showed that it is useful to conclude the estimators of the prices for the first two device types. The results showed an inelastic price elasticity of demand and a high acceptance of the subjects to use a part of the devices in the night hours. Overall, more participants decide to use a smart meter gateway than to refuse it.