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Yes / Approximately 97% of the country is experiencing drought conditions. Due to gross water mismanagement and its damaging impact on the country, Iran faces the worst situation in water resources of any industrialized nation. Tens of thousands of villages have been deserted and most of the major urban centers have passed their limits to absorb new rural migrants. Some officials predict that in less than 25 years, 50 million Iranians would be displaced from their current homes because of the pressing ecological conditions. This is happening at the time that the gap between the grassroots and the state has widened and there is increasing dissatisfaction with governance plagued by corruption, nepotism, economic mismanagement, unaccountability and a foreign policy which has produced various regional and trans-regional adversaries. This paper evaluates the pressing ecological challenges in Iran and by conceptualizing political resilience it critically evaluates whether the Islamic Republic is prepared to face the devastating ecological crisis and its socio-economic consequences.

Heat shock proteins (HSPs) are expressed in response to environmental stresses. Compared to other kingdoms, plant HSP families are larger, presumably the result of adaptation to a wide range of stresses. Following on an analysis of drought stress characteristics in loblolly pine (Watkinson et al., 2003), expression patterns of HSP gene expression during photosynthetic acclimation were examined. One cycle of mild (-1Mpa) followed by two cycles of severe stress (-1.7Mpa) were probed for conditioning effects. Photosynthetic acclimation occurred after the first cycle. No acclimation occurred without the first mild cycle. Microarray/RT-PCR analyses showed that a pine homolog to GRP94 (ER-resident HSP90) was up-regulated after rehydration coincident with acclimation. This GRP94 is closely related to GRP94 from the desiccation tolerant plant X. viscosa, supporting the importance of this gene during acclimation to water deficit. HSP genes whose products localized to the mitochondrion showed gradual up-regulation after consecutive cycles of severe drought. The Arabidopsis pine GRP94 homolog, (AtHSP90-7) was then analyzed, using bioinformatics (Pati et al., 2006) and laboratory tools. Genes encoding putative candidate co-chaperones for GRP94 and other HSP90s were discovered, which contained water stress-related cis-elements. Arabidopsis (Col-0) wild type and two T-DNA insertion mutants in HSP90-7 were used to study the importance of this gene for photosynthetic acclimation. Only the mutants were able to acclimate to drought stress, with the level of AtHSP90-7 expression in the mutants being reduced compared to the wild type. AtHSP90-7 may have a different role in Arabidopsis, and its reduced expression activated other protective genes (Klein et al., 2006). Responses to extreme drought in resistant (Sullu) and susceptible (Negra Ojosa) lines of Andean potatoes were also compared in order to identify relationships between HSPs gene expression, and tolerance, defined as the ability to maintain photosynthesis at 50% after 25 days of drought and to recover from the stress. Tolerance was correlated with up-regulation of HSPs (mostly chaperonins) and antioxidant genes all of whose gene products are located in the chloroplast. / Ph. D.

This dissertation is comprised of three essays that generate methods to measure the ex-ante economic impacts of agriculture technology innovations. The first essay entitled 'Valuing Intellectual Property Rights in an Imperfectly Competitive Market: A Biopharming Application' presents a method for valuing the intellectual property rights (IPRs) for an innovation that lowers product production costs below those associated with the patented process of a monopolist. The application to Glucocerebrosidase enzyme from transgenic tobacco suggests an intellectual property rights (IPRs) value of about $1.75 billion. Despite the innovator's market power, significant surplus gains also accrue to consumers. Further, U.S. antitrust laws that prohibit IPRs acquisition by the current monopolist increase consumer welfare by almost 50 percent. The second essay entitled 'Ex-Ante Analysis of the Benefits of Transgenic Drought Tolerance Research on Cereal Crops in Low-Income Countries' develops a framework to examine the ex-ante benefits of transgenic research on drought in eight low-income countries, including the benefits to producers and consumers from farm income stabilization and the potential magnitude of private sector profits from IPRs. The framework employs country-specific agroecological-drought risk zones and considers both yield increases and yield variance reductions when estimating producer and consumer benefits from research. Benefits from yield variance reductions are shown to be an important component of aggregate drought research benefits, representing 40 percent of total benefits across the eight countries. Further, estimated annual private sector benefits of $US 178 million suggest that significant incentives exist for private sector participation in transgenic drought tolerance research. The third essay entitled 'Ex-Ante Evaluation of Alternative Strategies to Increase the Stability of Cropping Systems in Eastern and Central Africa' examines the ex-ante economic impact of transgenic drought resistance maize breeding and of conventional maize, millet and sorghum drought resistance breeding in Kenya, Uganda, and the Amhara region in Ethiopia. An expected utility framework is combined with a partial equilibrium model and a spatial drought risk zonation scheme to estimate benefits from mean yield increases and yield variance reductions at the market level as well as at the household level for maize, millet and sorghum producers in the administrative regions of each country. Results suggest that annual ex-ante benefits of $87 million, $6.8 million and $4.8 million can be generated from public sector conventional breeding research on maize, sorghum and millet, respectively. Private sector transgenic drought tolerance research may also generate substantial benefits of $97 million for maize producers and consumers, particularly through the reduction of yield variance arising from drought, and an additional $21 million as profits from intellectual property rights protection. / Ph. D.

Using a cross section data collected in 2005, this study uses both parametric and semi-parametric methods to investigate key factors associated with household vulnerability to drought and economic downturns from exposure to shocks in Niger, conditioned on household and community assets. The findings provides evidence that factors positively affecting ability to overcome drought and economic condition downturns are the educational levels of the heads of households, livestock ownership, access to income generating activity opportunities, and participation to government decision taking. Household size and dependency ratio are found to negatively impact household ability to cope or manage shocks. Descriptive statistics are also used to determine major shocks faced by households after the drought and common coping strategies after the shocks. The results show that the prevailing shock experienced by Niger's population (especially the rural population) in 2004/05 is drought, followed by important loss of agricultural products. The most common coping strategy employed after these shocks is food aid and receiving assistance from other households. / Master of Science

A four-year drought, increasing population and shifting climate has spurred water conservation practices within Virginia. Creeping bentgrass (<i>Agrostis palustris</i> "L93"), Kentucky bluegrass (<i>Poa pratensis </i>"Midnight"), and tall fescue (<i>Festuca arundinacea</i>) Dominion blend were evaluated under deficit irrigation and upon exogenous application of plant growth stimulants (PGS), seaweed extract (SWE) + humic acid (HA), glycinebetaine (GB) and a commercial SWE product (PP). The objectives were to determine crop coefficients (K_c) for creeping bentgrass fairways and tall fescue home lawns, to determine if PGS application allowed for more water conservation, and to determine if they impacted physiological function and/or root morphology. A preliminary greenhouse experiment was conducted with creeping bentgrass and Kentucky bluegrass irrigated with 100%, 85% and 70% of evapotranspiration (ET). The study determined that an additional deficit irrigation level should be included for the field study and that GB application and 100% and 85% ET irrigation level produced the greatest creeping bentgrass root mass. The two–year field study evaluated creeping bentgrass and tall fescue. Tall fescue home lawns could be irrigated every five days with a K_c of 0.55 or once a week with a K_c of 0.70. Creeping bentgrass fairways could be irrigated every four days with a K_c of 0.85. Glycinebetaine application increased bentgrass rooting after planting and showed osmoprotectant properties. Another greenhouse study evaluated five GB rates on bentgrass and tall fescue. No differences were found between the five rates and concluded that the rate utilized in the field study may be appropriate for turfgrass application. / Master of Science

This study proposes a stratified approach of drought severity assessment using multi-layer simulated soil moisture. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) models are calibrated for 50 watersheds in the South-Atlantic Gulf region of the Southeastern US and a high-resolution daily soil moisture dataset is obtained at Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC-12) resolution for a period of January 1982 through December 2013. A near real-time hydrologic simulation framework by coupling the calibrated SWAT models with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) coupled forecast system model version 2 (CFSv2) weather data is developed to forecast various water balance components including soil moisture (SM), actual evapotranspiration (ET), potential evapotranspiration ET (PET), and runoff (SURQ) for near-real time drought severity assessment, and drought forecasting for a lead of 9-months. A combination of the surface and total rooting depth soil moisture percentiles proves to be an effective increment over conventional drought assessment approaches in capturing both, transient and long-term drought impacts. The proposed real-time drought monitoring approach shows high accuracy in capturing drought onset and propagation and shows a high degree of similarity with the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), the long-term (PDSI, PHDI, SPI-9 and SPI-12), and the short-term (Palmer Z index, SPI-1 and SPI-6) drought indices. / Master of Science / Drought, a recurring and worldwide phenomenon, with spatial and temporal characteristics varying significantly from across globe, lead to long-term and cumulative environmental changes. Often referred to as creeping phenomena, droughts are difficult to predict and constant monitoring is required to capture the signs of the onset of drought. Spatial variability in drought severity requires an understanding of the hydrology of the region and a knowledge of the relationship between drought inducing climatic extremes and other regional or local characteristics which help build, sustain and propagate droughts. In the absence of long-term observed hydrologic variables like soil moisture, evapotranspiration, simulated hydrologic variables serve an important purpose in understanding the impact of drought on various components of the water budget. However, several continental scale, physics-based models, and large scale remote sensing products find themselves restricted in explaining the watershed scale and sub-watershed scale variability in relation to drought. This study provides a high-resolution simulation of hydrological variables for 50 watersheds in the South-Atlantic Gulf region of the Southeastern US. The high resolution hydrologic simulations provide bedrock for retrospective drought simulations and understanding the response of various hydrologic variables of these watersheds to drought. It also aids in understanding the spatial variability in the relationship, and understanding the impact of seasonality and hydroclimatology on drought. The understanding of the interplay of various water budget components at watershed scale is used in developing a reliable seasonal drought forecasting framework based on the forecasted hydrologic variables from SWAT-CFSv2 coupled models for application in real time with a lead time of 9 months.

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