Abstract During the late 1980¡¦s, the stock market and real estate market in Taiwan both went into enormous booms. The Taiwan Stock Market Weighted Price Index (TSMWPI) and real estate prices both reach the highest peaks that they never reach before. It seems that there is a certain relationship between the stock market and real estate market. Therefore, this thesis proposes to study the following two propositions: (1) if the stock market and real estate market are integrated, then a certain degree of asset substitution will occur. The price of the assets in the two markets will interacted due to the asset substitution. And this price interaction will reduce the effect of risk diversifying. (2) But if the two markets are segmented, the effect the diversifying risk will get significant increasing as long as having the assets of the two markets included in your portfolio simultaneously. Past studies commonly investigated the relationship between the price series in these two markets, and therefore make the conclusions of their relationships. However, any individual price series cannot represent the activities of the whole market. Consequently, we adopt the Arbitrage Pricing Model (APM) to examine the relationships between the stock market and the real estate market in Taiwan. Our study is the first one to discuss this topic from the view of the market. Our study also tests causality relationship between the price series, but we have some improvements compared to the past studies. Our model includes an exogenous variable which captures the influence affecting both the stock market and real estate market at the same time. The test of casualty is also based on the cointegration theory. We test four cities in Taiwan, including the Taipei City, Taipei County, Taichung City and Kaohsiung City. Our findings suggest that the house price of the Taipei City and the Taipei County are co-integrated with the TSMWPI, that is, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two cities and TSMWPI. The test of Granger Causality indicates that TSMWPI only Granger causes the house price of the Taipei City. All other causality relationships are not existed in these four cities. Finally, we use the APM to examine the relationship between the two markets and find that no evidence of relationship is existed between the stock and the housing market, suggesting that the stock market and the housing market in Taiwan are segmented. Key Words: Real Estate Market, Stock Market, Causality, CAPM

A computer simulation study is conducted to explore the interaction of alternative segmentation strategies and the competitiveness of the market environment, a goal that can neither be tackled by purely analytic approaches nor is sufficient and undistorted real market data available to deduct findings in an empirical manner. The fundamental idea of the simulation is to increase competition in the artificial marketplace and to study the influence of segmentation strategy and varying market conditions on organizational success. Success/failure is measured using two performance criteria: number of units sold and survival of firms over 36 periods of time. Three central findings emerge: (1) the more competitive a market environment, the more successful the concentrated market segmentation strategy, (2) increased levels of marketing budgets do not favour firms following a concentrated segmentation strategy and (3) frequent rethinking and strategy modification impairs organizations that concentrate on target segments. (author's abstract) / Series: Working Papers SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) / Allegations of market manipulation abound in the popular press, particularly during the recent financial turmoil. However, many aspects of manipulation are poorly understood. The purpose of this thesis is to enhance our understanding of market manipulation by providing empirical evidence on the prevalence, effects and determinants of closing price manipulation. The first issue examined in this thesis is the prevalence of closing price manipulation. This thesis uses a hand collected sample of prosecuted closing price manipulation cases from US and Canadian stock exchanges, and methods that explicitly model the incomplete and non-random detection of manipulation. The results suggest that approximately 1.1% of closing prices are manipulated. For every prosecuted closing price manipulation there are approximately 300 instances of manipulation that remain undetected or not prosecuted. Closing price manipulation is more prevalent on larger exchanges than smaller ones, but is detected at a higher rate on small exchanges. Second, this thesis examines the effects of closing price manipulation. Using a sample of prosecution cases, this thesis finds that closing price manipulation is associated with large day-end returns, subsequent return reversals, increases in day-end spreads and increases in day-end trading activity. At the broader level of market quality, this thesis provides evidence from a laboratory experiment that closing price manipulation decreases both price accuracy and liquidity. Even the mere possibility of manipulation decreases liquidity and increases trading costs. The third issue analysed in this thesis is the determinants of closing price manipulation and its detection. Estimating an empirical model of manipulation and detection, this thesis finds that the likelihood of closing price manipulation is increased by smaller regulatory budgets, greater information asymmetry, mid to low levels of liquidity, month-end days and lower volatility. Manipulation is more likely to be detected when regulatory budgets are larger and when the manipulation causes abnormal trading characteristics. Further evidence from laboratory experiments suggests that regulation helps restore price accuracy by deterring some manipulation and making remaining manipulation less aggressive. These experiments also show that regulation has an insignificant effect on liquidity because participants in regulated markets still face relatively high uncertainty about the presence of manipulators. This thesis also examines how closing price manipulation is conducted and how other market participants respond. It develops an index of closing price manipulation that can be used to study manipulation in markets or time periods in which prosecution data are not available. It also provides a tool for the detection of manipulation, which can be used by regulators in automated surveillance systems. Finally, this thesis has implications for economic efficiency and policy. Closing price manipulation is significantly more prevalent than the number of prosecution cases suggests. Further, it harms both pricing accuracy and liquidity and therefore undermines economic efficiency. The prevalence of closing price manipulation can be reduced by increasing regulatory budgets, improving the accuracy of market surveillance systems by using the detection tools developed in this thesis, structuring markets such that participants are better able to identify manipulation, and implementing closing mechanisms that are difficult to manipulate. These actions would enhance market integrity and economic efficiency.

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) / Allegations of market manipulation abound in the popular press, particularly during the recent financial turmoil. However, many aspects of manipulation are poorly understood. The purpose of this thesis is to enhance our understanding of market manipulation by providing empirical evidence on the prevalence, effects and determinants of closing price manipulation. The first issue examined in this thesis is the prevalence of closing price manipulation. This thesis uses a hand collected sample of prosecuted closing price manipulation cases from US and Canadian stock exchanges, and methods that explicitly model the incomplete and non-random detection of manipulation. The results suggest that approximately 1.1% of closing prices are manipulated. For every prosecuted closing price manipulation there are approximately 300 instances of manipulation that remain undetected or not prosecuted. Closing price manipulation is more prevalent on larger exchanges than smaller ones, but is detected at a higher rate on small exchanges. Second, this thesis examines the effects of closing price manipulation. Using a sample of prosecution cases, this thesis finds that closing price manipulation is associated with large day-end returns, subsequent return reversals, increases in day-end spreads and increases in day-end trading activity. At the broader level of market quality, this thesis provides evidence from a laboratory experiment that closing price manipulation decreases both price accuracy and liquidity. Even the mere possibility of manipulation decreases liquidity and increases trading costs. The third issue analysed in this thesis is the determinants of closing price manipulation and its detection. Estimating an empirical model of manipulation and detection, this thesis finds that the likelihood of closing price manipulation is increased by smaller regulatory budgets, greater information asymmetry, mid to low levels of liquidity, month-end days and lower volatility. Manipulation is more likely to be detected when regulatory budgets are larger and when the manipulation causes abnormal trading characteristics. Further evidence from laboratory experiments suggests that regulation helps restore price accuracy by deterring some manipulation and making remaining manipulation less aggressive. These experiments also show that regulation has an insignificant effect on liquidity because participants in regulated markets still face relatively high uncertainty about the presence of manipulators. This thesis also examines how closing price manipulation is conducted and how other market participants respond. It develops an index of closing price manipulation that can be used to study manipulation in markets or time periods in which prosecution data are not available. It also provides a tool for the detection of manipulation, which can be used by regulators in automated surveillance systems. Finally, this thesis has implications for economic efficiency and policy. Closing price manipulation is significantly more prevalent than the number of prosecution cases suggests. Further, it harms both pricing accuracy and liquidity and therefore undermines economic efficiency. The prevalence of closing price manipulation can be reduced by increasing regulatory budgets, improving the accuracy of market surveillance systems by using the detection tools developed in this thesis, structuring markets such that participants are better able to identify manipulation, and implementing closing mechanisms that are difficult to manipulate. These actions would enhance market integrity and economic efficiency.

Thesis (M.A.)--University of Canterbury, 2007. / Typescript (photocopy). Includes bibliographical references (leaves 74-80). Also available via the World Wide Web.

Zugl. Kurzfassung und Übersetzung von: Basel, Universiẗat, Diss., 2007 u. d. T.: Parallel Trade of Pharmaceuticals. / Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references.

Diss. Humboldt-Univ. Berlin, 2008/2009. / Includes bibliographical references and index.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California at Berkeley, 1995. / Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Michigan, 1994. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 120-124).

South African agriculture experienced rapid deregulation during the 1990s as the one channel marketing boards were dismantled. For the grains industry this meant the rapid development of a derivatives market (SAFEX). Derivative markets are surely the most intriguing and complex financial markets with the most misunderstood and riskiest instruments of all financial markets. Their complexity also caused its fair share of problems within the South African scenario with the inception of SAFEX in 1996/97. Not only is this type of market complex but it also creates huge fluctuations in the portfolio value of a derivatives linked portfolio. It is precisely this type of fluctuations and exposure that can be controlled and managed to the preferred level of risk by the correct and responsible application of these instruments. The successful application of these instruments depends greatly on the fact that the underlying market should be an efficient market which will then in turn allow for cost effective pricing of these instruments and ultimately lead to successful product structuring. The South African agricultural derivatives market was tested for efficiency by using a co-integration analysis which proved market efficiency. Once market efficiency was established it allowed for the structuring of marketing portfolios which ultimately resulted in a rule of thumb marketing strategy for maize producers. The strategy required the maize producer to fix a price during planting period for delivery in July the following year. In order for the producer to benefit from any potential upside during the season between price fixing and delivery the producer should buy a call option with an expiry date of the month of March following planting. This will save him at least four months worth of time value on the option premium. This study also acknowledged the fact that the derivatives market in South Africa is still in its fledgling phase and realises the vast potential for risk reduction through radical innovation by creating and mixing the basic positions of derivatives. This study illustrates by way of examples a few approaches in structured products. In an attempt to achieve successful product development the study applied portfolio theory as a means to quantify risk by using mean return and portfolio variance parameters. It addressed the more obvious price risk situation which is faced by all grain producers by developing a rule of thumb marketing strategy for farmers. The more complex situation of emerging agriculture was also considered where the objective was to enable a small scale producer to benefit from the risk reduction potential of these instruments. At the same time it would also allow them to access production credit without a traditional balance sheet while allowing the financier to be ring fenced from the risk of price fluctuation on the clients profit profile. A more adventures approach was followed for the dairy industry by creating a proxy price for milk based on the maize price of SAFEX in an attempt to encourage an increase in the volatility of the milk price which could then be managed very successfully through the use of derivatives which will then ultimately enable cash flow management. / Dissertation (MSc (Agricultural Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development / unrestricted