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In this thesis I propose methods and strategies for the design of advanced model predictive control designs. The contributions are in the areas of data-driven model based MPC, model monitoring and explicit incorporation of closed-loop response considerations in the MPC, while handling issues such as plant-model mismatch, constraints and uncertainty. In the initial phase of this research, I address the problem of handling plant-model mismatch by designing a subspace identification based MPC framework that includes model monitoring and closed-loop identification components. In contrast to performance monitoring based approaches, the validity of the underlying model is monitored by proposing two indexes that compare model predictions with measured past output. In the event that the model monitoring threshold is breached, a new model is identified using an adapted closed-loop subspace identification method. To retain the knowledge of the nominal system dynamics, the proposed approach uses the past training data and current input, output and set-point as the training data for re-identification. A model validity mechanism then checks if the new model predictions are better than the existing model, and if they are, then the new model is utilized within the MPC. Next, the proposed MPC with re-identification method is extended to batch processes. To this end, I first utilize a subspace-based model identification approach for batch processes to be used in model predictive control. A model performance index is developed for batch process, then in the case of poor prediction, re-identification is triggered to identify a new model. In order to emphasize on the recent batch data, the identification is developed in order to increase the contribution of the current data. In another direction, the stability of data driven predictive control is addressed. To this end, first, a data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC is designed, and shown to be capable of stabilizing a system at an unstable equilibrium point. The data driven Lyapunov-based MPC utilizes a linear time invariant (LTI) model cognizant of the fact that the training data, owing to the unstable nature of the equilibrium point, has to be obtained from closed-loop operation or experiments. Simulation results are first presented demonstrating closed-loop stability under the proposed data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC. The underlying data-driven model is then utilized as the basis to design an economic MPC. Finally, I address the problem of control of nonlinear systems to deliver a prescribed closed-loop behavior. In particular, the framework allows for the practitioner to first specify the nature and specifics of the desired closed-loop behavior (e.g., first order with smallest time constant, second order with no more than a certain percentage overshoot, etc.). An optimization based formulation then computes the control action to deliver the best attainable closed loop behavior. To decouple the problems of determining the best attainable behavior and tracking it as closely as possible, the optimization problem is posed and solved in two tiers. In the first tier, the focus is on determining the best closed-loop behavior attainable, subject to stability and tracking constraints. In the second tier, the inputs are tweaked to possibly improve the tracking of the optimal output trajectories given by the first tier. The effectiveness of all of the proposed methods are illustrated through simulations on nonlinear systems. / Dissertation / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Магистерская диссертация посвящена разработке прикладного инструментария для планирования бюджета денежных средств предприятия в составе промышленного холдинга и вынесению практических рекомендаций по совершенствованию управления денежными потоками предприятия. В качестве научной новизны предложен подход к определению оптимального уровня запаса незавершенного производства на основе модели Хольта-Винтерса, дополненной двумя авторскими элементами. Предложен подход к анализу привлекательности выпуска цифровых финансовых активов перед банковским кредитом в условиях неопределенности инвестиционного спроса на основе критерия Лапласа. Автором разработана прогнозная модель бюджета движения денежных, позволяющая максимизировать финансовый результат от направления расходования денежных средств. Полученные результаты и рекомендации могут использоваться специалистами предприятий холдинга при разработке алгоритма планирования бюджета движения денежных средств. / The master's thesis is devoted to the development of applied tools for planning the budget of funds of an enterprise as part of an industrial holding and making practical recommendations for improving the management of cash flows of an enterprise. As a scientific novelty, an approach to determining the optimal level of the stock of work in progress based on the Holter-Winters model, supplemented by two author's elements, is proposed. An approach is proposed to analyze the attractiveness of issuing digital financial assets before a bank loan in conditions of uncertain investment demand based on the Laplace criterion. The author has developed a forecast model of the cash flow budget, which allows maximizing the financial result from the direction of spending money. The obtained results and recommendations can be used by specialists of the holding companies in the development of a cash flow budget planning algorithm.

La thématique de l'expansion du système agricole depuis l'Anatolie vers les Balkans est depuis longtemps un important sujet de recherche. Les approches archéologiques classiques ont permis de mieux comprendre le parcours et le temps de cette expansion, mais ils n'expliquent rien de ce qui n'est pas observable dans les traces archéologiques : notamment, la structure socio-économique d'une société agricole préhistorique. Dans cette thèse, un modèle de type multi-agents a été utilisé pour explorer ces éléments qui sont invisibles en archéologie. Ce modèle, appelé BEAN (Bridging European and Anatolian Neolithic), consiste en une adaptation du modèle OBRESOC (Un OBservatoire REtrospectif d'une SOCiété archéologique). OBRESOC avait été crée pour simuler l'expansion des agriculteurs rubanées en Europe Centrale, et a été modifié pour s'adapter au contexte archéologique balkanique. L'expansion des premiers agriculteurs Balkaniques est simulée en combinant des données archéologiques avec des inférences ethnohistoriques et paléodémographiques. Un environnement réaliste a été modélisé, où les zones d'optimum agricole sont déterminées par des estimations de la météorologie et de la fertilité des sols. Chaque agent correspond à un foyer domestique ; les agents interagissent dans cet environnement en suivant des modèles partiaux intermédiaires socioéconomiques qui déterminent les règles de leur comportement. Par exemple : maisons avec des familles nucléaires ; système agricole intensif sur des petits champs avec chasse et cueillette complémentaires ; expansion déterminée par le scalar stress villageois ; réseaux de solidarité entre apparentés ; disettes et famines causées par des événements météorologiques. De cette façon, le modèle simule le fonctionnement et l'expansion géographique d'une société agricole Néolithique. De nombreuses simulations ont été effectuées, en faisant varier les paramètres les plus importants, identifiés grâce à une analyse de sensibilité. L'adhérence entre les données archéologiques et les données simulées a été mesurée principalement avec des critères géographiques : la simulation qui produit le patron d'expansion simulé qui coïncide le mieux avec l'expansion archéologique est considérée la meilleure. De procédures spécifiques ont été crées pour manipuler la grande quantité de données simulées produites par le modèle. L'observation de ces données a permis l'exploration de certains aspects qui sont invisibles en archéologie ; par exemple, le modèle a aidé à questionner des croyances archéologiques basées sur des hypothèses qui n'étaient pas vérifiables autrement. Le modèle a permis aussi l'exploration d'autres sujets, comme la comparaison entre le front pionner de colonisation et les zones d'ancienne occupation, ainsi que l'influence de la météorologie sur l'expansion du système agricole. Le modèle a produit des patrons d'expansion qui adhèrent, géographiquement et chronologiquement, à l'expansion suggérée par les traces archéologiques. L'exploration des sorties socio-économiques a permis la formulation de nouvelles hypothèses qui ne pourraient pas être faites simplement sur la base de ce qui est trouvé dans les vestiges archéologiques. Même quand il y a un large écart entre ce qui est observé en archéologie et ce qui est produit par le modèle, cette approche de modélisation multi-agents ouvre à des nouvelles questions, en ajoutant de nouvelles idées et perspectives à la recherche actuelle. / A topic of great importance in archaeological research throughout the last decades concerns the expansion of the first farmers from Anatolia through the Balkans. The standard archaeological approaches allowed the understanding of the path and timing of this expansion; however, they lack explanation of what is unobservable in the archaeological record: in particular, the socio-economic structure of a prehistoric farming society. Throughout this thesis, an agent-based model was built in order to explore those elements which are hidden in archaeology. This model, called BEAN (Bridging European and Anatolian Neolithic), is an adaptation of the OBRESOC model (Un OBservatoire REtrospectif d'une SOCiété archéologique). OBRESOC was created to simulate the expansion of the LBK farmers in central Europe, and was adapted to the Balkan archaeological context. The expansion of the first Neolithic farmers in the Balkans was simulated by combining the archaeological records to ethnohistoric and paleodemographic inferences. A realistic environment has been modelled where the areas of optimum farming are determined by meteorology and soil fertility estimates. An agent corresponds to a household; agents interact on this landscape, following socioeconomic partial intermediate models. For instance: households composed of a nuclear family; intensive farming system on small plot completed by hunting-gathering; expansion determined by scalar stress at the hamlet scale; family clan solidarity; shortages and famines caused by meteorological events). Thus, the model simulates the functioning of the Neolithic farming society and its geographic expansion. Several simulations have been executed, testing different combinations of the key parameters, identified through a sensitivity analysis. The goodness of fit of simulated data to the archaeological data is measured mostly on geographic criteria : the best simulation is the one that produces the expansion pattern that better fits to the archaeological data. Specific procedures have been developed in order to process the large amount of data produced by the model. The observation of this data permitted to explore some aspects that are invisible in archaeological record : for example, the model helped to investigate some archaeological beliefs, based on assumptions that could not be verified. The model also permitted the exploration of other topics, such as the comparison between the pioneer front of colonization and the zones of previous occupation, as well as the effect of meteorology on the expansion of the farming system. The model produced an expansion pattern that corresponds geographically and chronologically to the expansion suggested by the archaeological evidence. The exploration of socio-economic outputs permitted the formulation of new hypothesis that could not be made using purely archaeological record. Even when there's a large gap between what is found in archaeology and what is produced by the model, this agent-based modelling approach helps to raise new questions, adding new ideas and perspective to the actual state of research.

有關市場經濟的文獻早已汗牛充棟，相較之下，組織經濟是一個較受 到忽視與待開發的領域。本文以三個模型來探討經濟組織的形成及組織與 市場的差異。在第一個模型中，我們承續Olson(1965)、Alchian and Dem- sets(1972)和Kandel and Lazear(1992)的理論，說明在聯合生產中 ，不同機制克服搭便車行為的效果，我們比教了三種理想型的機制：市場 （價格機能）、道德（同儕壓力）和層級組織，藉以說明組織的利益。在 第二個模型中，吾人藉由一個賽局模型比較了不同生產方式對形成雇傭關 係的影響，說明在單期和多期模型中，自營生產和聯合生產對雇傭關係的形成有何不同的影響。在第三個模型中我們探討了組織與市場究竟有何「本質」上的差異。首先吾人定義兩種不同的系統：集中的與分散的資訊系統。前者係以Simon (1967)的階層分解原則來定義經濟組織的資訊特色，後者則較接近無組織或是「市場」經濟體系。然後我們藉由模型的比較表明組織與市場在資訊上的差異。吾人的模型可視為對Hayek(1945)、Coase(1937)以及Sah and Stiglitz(1986)關於組織與市場結論的補充與註解。我們並將結論的一個引申與Lawrence and Lorsch(1967)關於組織與環境關係的結論加以比較：在我們的模型中，Lawrence andLorsch(1967)的結論只是環境景氣平均數大於零的一個特例。不過這仍是一個有待進一步驗證的結論。

Die elektrische Energieform gewinnt im Kraftfahrzeug wegen ihrer Nutzungsvielfalt und sehr guten Steuerbarkeit für die Realisierung neuartiger Funktionen zunehmend an Bedeutung. Voraussetzung für ihren Einsatz ist eine zuverlässige und effiziente Bereitstellung durch das Kfz-Energiebordnetz. Dafür ist ein intelligentes Energiemanagement erforderlich, welches mit geeigneten Strategien die Leistungsflüsse im Energiesystem koordiniert. In dieser Arbeit werden die beiden Entwurfsziele der Zuverlässigkeit und der Effizienz bei der Entwicklung von elektrischen Energiemanagement-Strategien systematisch betrachtet. Es erfolgt eine Beschreibung und Zuordnung der einzelnen Ziele und Maßnahmen anhand der Energieflüsse und Wirkungsketten. Ein Schwerpunkt bildet dabei die Beherrschung von Lastwechseln im Bordnetz. Für Aussagen hinsichtlich einer effizienten Erzeugung elektrischer Energie erfolgt eine Untersuchung der Energiewandlungskette anhand analytischer Methoden und mit Hilfe einer simulationsgestützten Optimierung. Ein weiterer Fokus der Arbeit liegt in der Betrachtung zur Anwendung ökonomischer Modelle für eine Energiekoordination. Es werden die theoretischen Grundlagen der Mikroökonomie zusammengestellt und mögliche Funktionsstrukturen eines einseitigen und zweiseitigen Allokationsmechanismus verglichen und bewertet. Abschließend zeigen experimentelle Untersuchungen an einem Bordnetzprüfstand zum Lastwechselverhalten und die Integration eines Energiemanagement-Systems den praktischen Bezug zum realen System.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-03T15:22:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 RenataMR.pdf: 665159 bytes, checksum: 6d95fdc9fbeffbdaabe5793488839df3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-03-02 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior / The on-line processes control for attributes consists of inspecting a single item at every m produced ones. If the examined item is conforming, the production continues; otherwise, the process stops for adjustment. However, in many practical situations, the interest consist of monitoring the number of non-conformities among the examined items. In this case, if the number of non-conformities is higher than an upper control limit, the process needs to be stopped and some adjustment is required. The contribution of this paper is to propose a control system for the number of nonconforming of the inspected item. Employing properties of an ergodic Markov chain, an expression for the expected cost per item of the control system was obtained and it will be minimized by two parameters: the sampling interval and the upper limit control of the non-conformities of the examined item. Numerical examples illustrate the proposed procedure / O procedimento usual de controle on-line de processo por atributos consiste em inspecionar um item a cada m itens produzidos. Se o item examinado for conforme, a produ??o continua; caso contr?rio p?ra-se o processo. No entanto, em muitas situa??es pr?ticas, nem sempre existe interesse em classificar o item como defeituoso ou n?o defeituoso, mas sim monitorar o n?mero de n?o-conformidades no item inspecionado. Neste caso, se o n?mero de n?o-conformidades for superior a um limite de controle, p?ra-se o processo para o ajuste. A contribui??o deste trabalho est? em propor um sistema de controle on-line baseado no n?mero de n?o-conformidades do item inspecionado. Atrav?s das propriedades de uma cadeia de Markov erg?dica, obteve-se uma express?o anal?tica do custo m?dio por item produzido do sistema de controle on-line que pode ser minimizada por dois par?metros: o intervalo entre inspe??es e o limite superior de controle para o n?mero de n?o-conformidades no item inspecionado. Um exemplo num?rico ilustra o procedimento proposto

Notre thèse de pharmacie clinique est une contribution à l’optimisation de l’efficience du traitement antirétroviral (TAR) par des méthodes de modélisation en Côte d’Ivoire. La première étude a été consacrée à une modélisation de la réponse antirétrovirale par taxonomie des trajectoires de taux de CD4 en utilisant un modèle de méta-apprentissage des trajectoires d’indicateurs biomédicaux. Ce modèle appliqué à la taxonomie des trajectoires des taux de CD4 a montré son intérêt dans la mise en évidence de classes distinctes de patients avec des caractéristiques particulières justifiant et/ou déterminant le profil particulier de méta-trajectoires de leur marqueur immunologique au cours du traitement. La deuxième tâche a consisté en une évaluation de l’impact de principaux déterminants des méta-trajectoires de taux de CD4 sur divers types de réponse immunologique à partir d’un modèle explicatif avec une équation de régression logistique. Les réponses immunologiques considérées ont été exprimées en termes d’absence de gain de CD4, de gain sub-optimal et de gain optimal de CD4 à différentes périodes de suivi du TAR. Enfin l’évaluation de l’efficience des stratégies antirétrovirales de première ligne en Côte d’Ivoire, a été abordée dans la dernière partie avec un modèle pharmaco-économique. Nous avons effectué une étude préliminaire ouvrant des perspectives pour encourager la mise en oeuvre d’évaluations pharmaco-économiques complètes par modélisation en Côte d’Ivoire. Elle a permis de mettre en exergue les parties méthodologiques pouvant être sujettes à caution dans une étude de modélisation pharmaco-économique des TAR de première ligne dans un contexte de ressources limitées / Our thesis of Clinical pharmacy is a contribution to optimize the efficiency of antiretroviral therapy (ART) by modeling methods in Côte d'Ivoire. The first study was devoted to modeling the antiretroviral response from taxonomy of CD4 counts trajectories, using a meta-learning model of biomedical markers trajectories. This model applied to the taxonomy of the CD4 counts trajectories showed its interest in the identification of distinct classes of patients with particular characteristics justifying and/or determining the specific profile of meta-trajectories of the immunological marker during treatment. The second task was an assessment of the impact of key determinants of CD4 counts meta-trajectories on various types of immune response from an explanatory model with a logistic regression equation. Antiretroviral immune responses considered were expressed in terms of absence of CD4 gain, sub-optimal gain and optimal gain of CD4 at different periods of follow-up of ART. Finally the evaluation of the efficiency of first-line antiretroviral strategies in Côte d'Ivoire, was discussed in the last part with a projective pharmaco-economic model. We conducted a preliminary exploratory study opening up prospects to encourage the implementation of comprehensive pharmaco-economic assessments by modeling in Côte d'Ivoire. This study helped to highlight the unreliable methodological sections in a pharmaco-economic modeling of first-line ART in resource-limited settings

Floating offshore wind power is a relatively new technology that enables wind turbines to float above the sea level, tied by anchors at the seabed. The purpose of this work is to develop an economic model for the technology in order to calculate the total cost of a planned wind farm. Cost data are retrieved from reports and academic journals available online. Based on these data, a model in Microsoft Excel is developed which calculates the Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for floating wind power plants as a function of several input values. As an addition to this model, financing offshore projects are described using literature study and by doing interviews with three major companies, currently investing in offshore wind. As a result, the model allows the user to calculate Capital expenditures, Operating expenditures and LCOE for projects at any given size and at any given site. The current LCOE for a large floating offshore wind farm is indicated to be in the range of 138-147 £/MWh. The outline from interviews was that today there is no shortage of capital for funding wind projects. However, in order to attract capital, the governmental regulatory of that market has to be suitable since it has a crucial impact on price risks of a project.

The hereby presented master’s thesis deals with municipal solid waste separation. The introductory chapters describe current state of handling of selected recyclables and the technologies of their collection. The following chapter is a description of a waste sorting line technology, since this facility’s function is to upgrade the recyclables to secondary materials. The first step of practical part of this thesis was creation of a technical-economic model of the sorting line designed to process plastic and paper waste, therefore the following chapter is dedicated to its description and presentation. Subsequently, the outputs of the model are evaluated for three settings of its input variables, which represent the three imagined scenarios of the modeled sorting line’s operation. Sensitivity analyses focused on selected input variables of this model were also performed. A separate chapter is dedicated to changes in the model outputs in the case of including the waste transportation prices to the selected scenario. At the end of the thesis, the influence of increased material separation of plastic waste on the lower heating value of residual mixed municipal solid waste is evaluated.