本研究以日本東京證券交易所上市公司為研究對象，探討董事會成員年齡與強制性盈餘預測之關聯性。本研究將董事會成員年齡區分為五種：董事長的年齡、董事會成員的平均年齡、董事會成員年齡的標準差、董事會成員最高年齡跟最低年齡的差距及董事長年齡是否高於董事會成員平均年齡，以測試其所發布盈餘預測準確度與盈餘預測偏差之關聯性。而實證結果發現董事長的年齡越大、董事會成員的平均年齡越大、董事長年齡高於董事會成員平均年齡時，所發布的盈餘預測準確度也就越高，且傾向較為保守的盈餘預測。而董事會成員年齡的標準差越大、董事會成員最高年齡與最低年齡差距越大時，所發布的盈餘預測準確度較低，且傾向較為樂觀的盈餘預測。

本研究主要探討產業專家會計師事務所對其受查企業管理當局自願性盈餘預測品質之影響，文中自願性盈餘預測之品質分別就盈餘預測之發布意願、揭露盈餘預測方式之精確性、盈餘預測之準確性、盈餘預測之穩健性四部分來探討。本研究係以2009年之S&P 500公司作為研究對象，樣本期間為2000年至2009年。實證結果顯示：產業專家會計師事務所之受查企業相較於非產業專家會計師事務所之受查企業，較有意願去發布管理當局自願性盈餘預測，也傾向於以較具體精確之方式去揭露盈餘預測，且其盈餘預測之準確性亦較高，但其與受查企業管理當局自願性盈餘預測之穩健性則無顯著關聯性。顯示產業專家會計師事務所與其受查企業管理當局自願性盈餘預測之間存在關聯性，產業專家會計師事務所能提升其受查企業管理當局自願性盈餘預測之品質。 / This paper examines the effects of auditor industry specialization on voluntary management earnings forecasts. This paper uses the incidence of issuing voluntary management earnings forecasts, forecast specificity, forecast accuracy, and forecast conservatism to measure the quality of voluntary management earnings forecast. Based on the sample of 2009 S&P 500 companies spanning from 2000 to 2009, the results indicate that firms audited by industry specialist are more likely to issue earnings forecasts, and their forecasts are more specific. In addition, these forecasts tend to be more accurate. Taken together, the empirical evidence is consistent with the prediction that the auditor industry specialization is associated with voluntary management earnings forecasts; that is, auditor industry specialization helps to enhance the quality of voluntary management forecasts.

本研究主要探討公司國際化程度及公司治理對管理當局自願性盈餘預測行為之影響，而本研究係以2009年公布之美國S&P 500公司作為研究對象，研究期間為2002年至2007 年。實證結果顯示：(1)企業國際化程度與管理當局揭露自願性盈餘預測之意願無顯著關聯性；(2)企業國際化程度越高，管理當局自願性盈餘預測之準確性越高；(3)企業國際化程度越高的情形下，公司治理之良窳與管理當局自願性盈餘預測間無顯著關聯性；(4)企業國際化程度越高，公司治理機制越良好，管理當局自願性盈餘預測準確性越高。 / This study investigates the effects of internalization and corporate governance on voluntary management earnings forecasts. Based on a sample of 2009 S&P 500 companies spanning from 2002 and 2007, I do not find the issuance of voluntary management earnings forecasts to be related with the degree of internalization and the quality of corporate governance. However, the empirical results indicate that the accuracy of management earnings forecasts is positively associated with the degree of internalization and the quality of corporate governance.

研究顯示，家族企業之數量與經濟影響力在全球企業環境中迅速成長並占有一席之地，成為具競爭力的存在，本研究以我國2001至2008年的上市（櫃）公司為樣本，探討財務分析師針對家族與非家族企業在預測行為上之差異，本研究之迴歸模型以分析師預測誤差、追蹤意願及預測離散程度三種特性分析財務分析師的預測行為，研究顯示相較於非家族企業，分析師對家族企業之預測意願較低，追蹤數量明顯較少，在預測結果上，家族企業會使分析師的預測產生較大的誤差，且各分析師間預測結果的差異程度也較大，本研究藉此結果推論家族企業中控制股東與其他股東代理問題的存在，及家族成員擔任管理者或董事等重要職位導致董事會喪失監督職能，在資訊揭露的數量與品質上表現較差。 / Prior research shows that family firms have grown rapidly and played an important role in the global corporate environment. This study examines the relation between family firms and financial analysts’ earnings forecast behaviors in Taiwan from year 2001 to 2008. I use several analysts forecast attributes: forecasts error, number of analysts following, and forecast dispersion. The results indicate that family firms generally have less analysts following, greater analysts’ forecast errors and greater forecast dispersion. These findings support the argument that the existence of conflict between majority and minority shareholders and that family members serving as managers or members of the board may weaken the disclosure of the quantity and quality of firm-specific information.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:51:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 142184.pdf.jpg: 20410 bytes, checksum: 720b476fe32b25d220b0dde4d663ee25 (MD5) 142184.pdf: 373613 bytes, checksum: 1b6743be6830c2ae7ab8245255b9ad6b (MD5) 142184.pdf.txt: 120505 bytes, checksum: be4e63d920365eb874f914450f641b26 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005-10-17T00:00:00Z / A presente dissertação analisa o erro de projeção dos analistas de investimentos do sell side, definido como a diferença entre o consenso das projeções dos analistas e o resultado reportado pela empresa. O tamanho do erro de projeção é uma medida da qualidade das projeções dos analistas de um determinado mercado de capitais. Uma vasta literatura acadêmica mostra que uma melhora na qualidade das projeções dos analistas, medida através de uma diminuição do tamanho do erro de projeção, está relacionada com a redução da assimetria de informação e com um aumento do valor de mercado das empresas. São testadas duas regressões, nas quais características das empresas, como setor, tamanho, endividamento e variabilidade do lucro, e características do ambiente de informação da empresa, como listagem de ADR, número de analistas que acompanham a empresa e convergência das projeções, são testadas contra duas métricas do erro de projeção, acurácia e viés. Nossas hipóteses são que existem fatores que influenciam de maneira significativa o tamanho do erro de projeção (acurácia) e o viés das projeções (viés). Estas hipóteses foram confirmadas, isto é, nossas regressões apresentaram pelo menos um fator que se mostrou significativo estatisticamente para influenciar o tamanho do erro de projeção (hipóteses H1 e H2) ou o seu viés (hipótese H3). Entretanto, os resultados mostram que vários fatores que se mostram significativos em testes conduzidos em mercados desenvolvidos – tais como tamanho, endividamento e variabilidade do lucro – não se mostraram significativos no mercado brasileiro. Por outro lado, os fatores relacionados com o resultado do ano projetado ou do ano anterior se mostraram fortemente significativos. Acreditamos que os resultados podem ser explicados de três maneiras: 1) ou a capacidade de adicionar valor dos analistas em relação a modelos estatísticos de projeção é muito pequena, devido à sua falta de habilidade; ou 2) a instabilidade macroeconômica é tão grande domina todos os outros fatores que poderiam influenciar o tamanho do erro de projeção; ou 3) os resultados das empresas nos mercados desenvolvidos são tão administrados, isto é, tão estáveis, que permitem que fatores mais sutis como o tamanho, o nível de endividamento e a variabilidade do lucro se tornem significativos. Esta dissertação não permite distinguir qual das explicações é a correta. Uma de suas limitações é não incluir variáveis referentes à habilidade e experiência dos analistas e, também, variáveis relacionadas a fatores como governança corporativa e disclosure de informações. Em uma linha de pesquisa muito extensa nos países desenvolvidos, mas praticamente inexistente no Brasil, esperamos que estudos futuros supram estas lacunas e nos permitam entender melhor a questão da qualidade das projeções de resultados no contexto brasileiro. / The current dissertation analyses the forecast error of the sell side analysts in the Brazilian context, defined as the difference between the forecast consensus and the company earnings effectively reported. The size of the forecast error is used as a proxy for the quality of the forecast produced by the analysts of a specific stock market. A vast academic literature shows that an improvement in the quality of the forecasts produced by the analysts, measured by a decrease in the size of the forecast error, is related with a decrease in the asymmetry of information in such market and by an increase in the market value of its companies. Two regressions are tested, in which company characteristics, such as sector, size, leverage and variability of earnings, and characteristics of the company’s information environment, such as ADR listing, number of analysts following and forecast convergence, are tested against two metrics of forecast error, accuracy and bias. Our hypotheses are that there are factors that impact significatively both the size of the forecast error (accuracy) and the bias presented by the projections (bias). The hypotheses are confirmed, that is, the regressions present at least one factor that impacts significantly either the size of the forecast error (hypotheses H1 and H2) or the bias (hypothesis H3). However, the results show that many factors that are significant in tests conducted in developed markets – such as size, leverage and earnings variability – are not significant in the Brazilian context. On the other hand, factors related to the company results in the fiscal year being forecast and in the previous year result to be strongly significant. We believe that these results can be explained in three ways: 1) either forecasts produced by Brazilian analysts add very little value over statistical models, probably because of lack of ability; or 2) the macroeconomic instability in Brazil is so great that its influence on the companies’ results dominates all other factors that could impact the size of the forecast error; or 3) the earnings management of the companies in the developed markets is so widespread, leading to such a stability of earnings, that it allows for more subtle factors such as size and leverage become significant. This study does not allow us to distinguish which one is the correct explanation. One of its limitations is not to include variables related to the ability and experience of the analysts, as well as variables related to governance and disclosure. In a body of research that is very extensive in developed countries, but practically inexistent in Brazil, we hope that future research fills these gaps and allow us to better understand the issue of the quality of earnings forecast in the Brazilian context.

企業自願性盈餘預測屬資訊公開體系的一環，我國相關法令雖要求自願性盈餘預測必須於發布後二日公告，並經會計師核閱，且錯誤超過盈餘之20%必須要強制修正，但是實務上企業管理者常游走法律邊緣，而主管機關也沒有嚴格執法，使得公司盈餘預測常被詬病，甚至有淪為股票炒作工具之說，嚴重損害投資人的利益，這樣的現象或許可以透過規範董事會的組成進而強化公司監管的機制來獲得解決。先前有關盈餘預測的研究並沒有將公司監管機制以及董事會中的家族因素納入考量，因此，本研究試圖以公司監管的角度出發，並加入家族因素，以橫斷面迴歸分析的方法，探討一般董事會結構及公司監管機制（自變數）與自願性盈餘預測行為（應變數）之關聯性。 在自變數中，一般董事會結構方面除了包括董事會持股比例外，尚採用Cubbin and Leech（1983）的表決機率模型，做為家族企業判斷的依據，以便將家族因素納入考量，而公司監理機制方面則包括非關係企業法人董事、法人投資機構以及法人以外第二勢力等三項。在應變數中，本研究將應變數依照是否發布自願性盈餘預測、自願性盈餘預測發布次數以及自願性盈餘預測發布準確性等，分為三個主題依序探討。研究結論如下： 1.董事會持股愈高，企業愈不會發布自願性盈餘預測，一旦發布，錯誤的機會較高。 2.家族愈能掌控董事會時，企業愈有發布自願性盈餘預測的意願，一旦發布，修正的機會並不高。而家族企業中，家族持股愈高時，發布自願性盈餘預測的意願愈強烈，但是準確性也愈低。 3.董事會中法人第二勢力存在（非關係企業法人持股大於3%），同時持股較高時，會提高企業對外發布自願性盈餘預測的意願，其修正預測的機會比較低。 4.董事會中法人以外第二勢力存在，同時持有股數較高時，愈會降低自願性盈餘預測修正的機會，而盈餘預測準確性也會比較高。 5.公司董事會被家族所掌控時，在第一次盈餘預測發布時，較有可能發布比實際情況樂觀的盈餘預測，而公司當年度有好消息或是規模較大時，也較可能發布比實際情況樂觀的盈餘預測。至於負債比率較大的公司，發布盈餘預測的態度反而比較保守，較可能出現低估的情形。

本論文以公司規模大小、公司成長率、盈餘變異程度、盈餘持續率、負債比率、系統風險、以及產業別為控制變數，探討管理當局持股比率與管理當局自願性（強制性）盈餘預測準確度、盈餘管理程度之關係。並進一步探討管理當局持股比率與七個控制變數之交互作用對管理當局自願性（強制性）盈餘預測準礁度及盈餘管理程度之影響。 　　本實證研究結果發現： 　　1、自願性盈餘預測方面： 　　(1)管理當局持股比率越高且盈餘變異程度越大之公司，盈餘預測誤差越高，盈餘預測準確度越低。 　　(2)管理當局持股比率越高且負債比率越高之公司，盈餘預測誤差越高，盈餘預測準確度越低。 　　(3)產業別會影響其預測準確度，而產業中以鋼鐵業之盈餘預測準確度，顯著較高。 　　(4)公司成長率越高、盈餘持續率越高，其盈餘管理程度越高。 　　(5)產業中以電子業有顯著較高之盈餘管理程度。 　　2、強制性盈餘預測力面： 　　(1)管理當局持股比率與盈餘預測準確度成正相關。 　　(2)公司規模與盈餘預測準確度成負相關。 　　(3)盈餘持續率與盈餘預測準確度成負相關。 　　(4)產業別確實與強制性盈餘預測準確度有關，其中以電子業之盈餘預測準確度顯著較低。 　　(5)管理當局持股比率越高之紡織業其盈餘預測準確度顯著較低。 　　(6)強制性盈餘預測並無顯著的盈餘管理情況產生。 　　3、綜合結論： 　　(1)自願性之盈餘預測準確度高於強制性之盈餘預測準確度。 　　(2)自願性之盈餘管理程度高於強制性之盈餘管理程度。 / This research hypothesizes that the level of managerial ownership that controlling for earnings growth、earnings variability、earnings persistence、company risk、 debt、industry、and size has effect on both the magnitude of forecast precise of voluntary(compelling) forecast and the magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment. 　　In addition，this study examines that there are interaction of ownership effects on both the magnitude of forecast precise of voluntary (compelling) forecast and the magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment. 　　The empirical results show as follow: 　　1、Voluntary forecast aspect: 　　(1) Managerial ownership is negatively associated with the magnitude of forecast precise. 　　(2) Managerial ownership of is positively associated with the magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment. 　　2、Compelling forecast aspect: 　　(1) Managerial ownership is positively associated with the magnitude of forecast precise. 　　(2) Managerial ownership is not associated with the magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment. 　　3、Conclusion explication: 　　(1) The magnitude of forecast precise of voluntary forecast is more than that of compelling forecast. 　　(2) The magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment of voluntary forecast is more than that of compelling forecast. 　　(3) Industry variable indeed affects both the magnitude of forecast precise and the magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment.

本研究以研究發展費用作為專利的投入變數，以專利數作為專利的產出數量變數，以平均專利範圍及平均專利發明人數作為專利的產出品質變數，使用長期間與大範圍的台灣樣本來探討專利資訊與企業財務績效之關連性，並透過專利資訊的使用者-分析師的觀點來判別哪些專利資訊是資訊使用者眼中的攸關資訊。研究結果發現大量的專利並不會對企業未來盈餘有明顯助益，擁有高品質的專利才是對企業未來盈餘有所助益的關鍵因素，研究結果亦發現分析師在進行盈餘預測時，並未適當的利用專利產出品質與專利產出數量資訊，且這些未經適當利用的專利資訊會增加盈餘預測誤差。故本研究建議資訊揭露相關準則及法規可針對專利資訊給予更完整、更透明的揭露。 / Patent’s value is hard to accurately identify under current generally accepted accounting principles. This paper uses firms in the Taiwan Stock Exchange to investigate the association of firm’s patents, future financial performance and the information used in analysts’ earnings forecasts. The patents were measured by the proxies of R&D expenditures, granted patents, patent claims and the number of patent inventors. The evidences show that possessing a large number of patents does not help future financial performance, but granting high quality patents does. The evidences also show that analysts do not appropriately use the information provided by patents, and this truly causes analysts’ forecast errors. Therefore, I suggest giving patents clearer and more complete disclosure, so that investors can obtain more value-relevant information.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:48:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 68472.pdf.jpg: 26974 bytes, checksum: 034a1c3c9d998708ccd9d2147b6ae400 (MD5) 68472.pdf: 1943638 bytes, checksum: 074240d8b8c6bdfa6dfcfb36d0dd4f75 (MD5) 68472.pdf.txt: 413719 bytes, checksum: bc028bb1f27dfc3f51effc0a0cdcb7af (MD5) Previous issue date: 2004-04-14T00:00:00Z / The main purpose of this thesis is to analyze the financial analysts of Brazilian firms. By gathering data from the market and analyzing the current performance of the firms, these professionals prepare earnings forecasts and stock recommendations. Using I/B/E/S database, it is presented a broad empirical research of the earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, as well as their information content for the Brazilian capital market. The empirical studies covered the period from January 1995 to June 2003. This thesis starts with the discussion of some concepts and the modus operandi of the financial analysts of Brazilian firms. After a literature review in the area, the empirical studies begin with the analysis of the earnings forecast errors. Some of their characteristics, such as accuracy, bias and precision are investigated in different contexts. After a critical analysis of the informational content for different types of earnings forecast revisions and actual announced earnings deviated form analysts expectations (earnings surprises), evidences of price effects in response to these facts are documented. The last part of this thesis discusses the role of stock recommendations in the Brazilian market. The percentage distribution of stock recommendations is verified as well as the informational content of stock recommendations. Other studies are carried out to verify the performance of the consensus stock recommendations and the effects of downgrades and upgrades of recommendations for Brazilian companies. / Esta tese propõe-se a analisar os analistas de mercado de capitais de empresas brasileiras. Coletando informações do mercado e analisando o desempenho corrente das empresas, estes profissionais realizam projeções de resultados e fazem recomendações. Usando dados extraídos do sistema I/B/E/S, realiza-se uma abrangente pesquisa empírica das previsões e recomendações dos analistas, bem como de seu conteúdo informativo para o mercado brasileiro. O período de estudo foi entre janeiro 1995 a junho 2003. Inicialmente são discutidos conceitos e particularidades do modus operandi dos analistas de empresas brasileiras. A seguir, depois de uma revisão da literatura onde se documentam as principais contribuições e descobertas, procede-se a uma investigação da natureza dos erros de previsão dos analistas de empresas brasileiras. Características como a acurácia, viés e precisão das previsões dos analistas são apreciadas e contextualizadas em diferentes situações. Efetua-se um detalhamento analítico do conteúdo informativo dos diferentes tipos de revisões de previsões dos analistas e das surpresas provocadas pelo anúncio de resultados em desacordo com as expectativas. De modo geral, as revisões e as surpresas, na medida em que informarem o mercado, provocam variações de retornos. Encerra-se a tese com uma análise das recomendações dos analistas. Apura-se a distribuição percentual das recomendações, assim como os efeitos sobre os preços de recomendações de compra (buy) e de venda(sell). O desempenho das recomendações de consenso e o efeito das revisões de recomendações para cima (upgrade) e para baixo (downgrade) são exemplos de outros pontos analisados.

Ce travail propose une analyse de l’évaluation des capitaux propres de l’entreprise obtenue des modèles d’évaluation de la rente économique. La qualité des estimations dépend de la pertinence des hypothèses et du calibrage empirique de ces modèles. Dans un premier temps, les fondements théoriques des différentes hypothèses sur la croissance et/ou la persistance de la rente économique et de son influence sur l’évaluation des fonds propres sont analysés. S’appuyant sur le modèle des accroissements anormaux du résultat, nous montrons que la rente économique du nouvel investissement ou de l’accroissement anormal du résultat devrait converger vers zéro du fait des forces concurrentielles. Cette proposition, différente de ce qui est couramment admis suite au travail d’Ohlson et Juettner-Nauroth, apparaît influencer sensiblement l’estimation des fonds propres de l’entreprise. Une analyse asymptotique des multiples présentés dans le deuxième chapitre de cette thèse souligne ces aspects en dehors des biais et des difficultés que pourraient amener les mesures empiriques du phénomène. Le travail propose notamment une explication de la surévaluation systématique des fonds propres obtenue par le modèle des accroissements anormaux du résultat. Par la suite, une méthode d’estimation de la persistance de l’accroissement anormal du résultat par firme est proposé afin d’améliorer le calibrage de ce modèle. Dans le dernier chapitre, un modèle analytique synthétisant les deux grands types d’approche concernant la modélisation de la rente, le modèle des résultats résiduels et le modèle des accroissements anormaux du résultat, est proposé. Une équation de valorisation linéaire en est dérivée et est mobilisée afin de caractériser le contenu informationnel des prévisions de la variation du bénéfice à court terme avancées par les analystes financiers. / This research proposes an analysis of equity valuation of firm, obtained from the models valuing economic rents. The quality of the estimations depends on the pertinence of the hypothesis and the empirical calibration of these models. In the first place, the theoretical foundations of different hypotheses on the growth rate and/or the persistence level of economic rent and the influence of these hypotheses on equity valuation are analyzed. Through the abnormal earnings growth model, we show that the economic rent of the new investment or the abnormal earnings growth should converge towards zero due to the market competition. This proposition, different from Ohlson and Juettner-Nauroth’s assumption often adopted in prior studies, is found having sensitive influence on equity valuation. The asymptotic analysis of valuation ratios in the second chapter of this thesis underlines these aspects while being immune from the bias and the difficulties that the empirical studies on this issue could induce. This research notably proposes an explanation for the problem of systematic overvaluation of equity by the abnormal earnings growth model. In the second place, to improve the calibration of the abnormal earnings growth model, a method is proposed to estimate the firm-specific persistence level of the abnormal earnings growth. In the last chapter, an analytical model is proposed to synthesize the two main approaches concerning rent modeling: the residual income valuation model and the abnormal earnings growth model. A linear valuation equation is derived from the analytical model and mobilized to characterize the value relevance of the short-term earnings variation forecasted by financial analysts.