Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The global and national political and economic situation reflects directly on changes in the labor market. Concern about the employability, generate new jobs, as well as security and formality of these, and, places that no longer exist causing unemployment, it is constantly agenda in the academic literature, the media and at the same time government concern. In this context, the objective in this research was to analyze the absolute indicators of formal employment, initially in the eight sectors of the economy (mineral extraction, manufacturing, industrial and public utility services, construction, trade, services, agriculture and public administration) and, subsequently adjust predictive models in four major economic sectors (construction, trade, manufacturing and services). First, there was a descriptive analysis of dismissals in the state of Rio Grande do Sul between January 2004 and December 2014. Then, the analysis extended to the other states of the South region of Brazil (Santa Catarina and Paraná) jointly between 05/2003 and 12/2014. For this, we used the secondary database of the General Register of Employed and Unemployed, made available by the Ministry of Labor and Employment. For data analysis and model adjustments, we used a methodology developed by Box and Jenkins to time series. Initial results indicated significant growth trend of dismissals in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, in seven of the eight sectors of this economy. Second time, were set twelve statistical models forecast that showed seasonal component. Through the models found, it was possible to determine the forecast of formal employment by sector of economic activity in southern Brazil, based on values outside of the sample. In conclusion, the models found showed satisfactory predictions as accompanied the process of the actual values, indicating low average percentage absolute error. / A situação político-econômica mundial e nacional reflete diretamente nas transformações ocorridas no mercado de trabalho. A preocupação com a empregabilidade, geração de novos empregos, bem como a segurança e formalidade destes, e, as vagas que deixam de existir ocasionando o desemprego, é pauta constantemente na literatura acadêmica, na mídia e ao mesmo tempo preocupação do governo. Neste contexto, o objetivo proposto nesta pesquisa foi analisar os indicadores absolutos do emprego formal, inicialmente nos oito setores da economia (extrativa mineral, indústria de transformação, serviços industriais de utilidade pública, construção civil, comércio, serviços, agropecuária e administração pública) e, posteriormente, ajustar modelos de previsão no quatro maiores setores de atividade econômica (construção civil, comércio, indústria de transformação e serviços). Primeiramente, realizou-se uma análise descritiva dos desligamentos no estado do Rio Grande do Sul entre janeiro de 2004 e dezembro de 2014. Em seguida, a análise estendeu-se aos demais estados da região Sul do Brasil (Santa Catarina e Paraná) de forma conjunta entre 05/2003 e 12/2014. Para isso, utilizou-se a base de dados secundários do Cadastro Geral de Empregados e Desempregados, disponibilizados pelo Ministério do Trabalho e Emprego. Para as análises dos dados e ajustes de modelos, empregou-se a metodologia desenvolvida por Box e Jenkins para séries temporais. Os resultados iniciais indicaram tendência significativa de crescimento dos desligamentos no estado do Rio Grande do Sul, em sete dos oito setores da economia avaliados. Em segundo momento, foram ajustados doze modelos estatísticos de previsão que apresentaram componente sazonal. Por meio dos modelos encontrados, foi possível determinar a previsão do emprego formal por setor de atividade econômica na região Sul do Brasil, com base nos valores fora da amostra. Conclui-se que, os modelos encontrados apresentaram previsões satisfatórias, pois acompanharam o processo dos valores reais, evidenciando baixo erro absoluto percentual médio.

Incorporate in business administration from the management model of economic value, implies that the direction of the entity should worry about how to run effectively in this economic value and how to achieve an equitable distribution of this value created, which requires understanding the nature of this economic value and the importance of the firm as an essential economic activity. In this context arose three approaches that are directly related to the firm and its capacity to create economic value, such as economic agents involved in it, or understand how to shape the firmand the relationship between the real market and the financial market. In this vein, the purpose of this article is tolay the ground work for supporting the economic value and the considerations that management should keep in mind when it comes to managing it. / Incorporar en la administración de empresas el modelo de gestión del valor económico implica que la dirección de la entidad debe preocuparse de forma eficaz en la generación de este valor económico y en su distribución equitativa, lo cual obliga a comprender su naturaleza y la importancia de la empresa como ente fundamental de la actividad económica. En este contexto, surgen tres planteamientos que están directamente relacionados con la empresa y su capacidad para crear valor económico: los agentes económicos involucrados en la misma, la forma de entender o modelar la empresa y la relación entre el mercado real y el mercado financiero. En este orden, el objetivo de este artículo es establecer las bases en las que se sustenta este valor y las consideraciones que la dirección debe tener presente para gestionarlo.

The present work aims at discussing the main theoretical aspects related to the occurrence of long memory processes and its respective application in economics and finance. In order to discuss the main theoretical aspects of its occurrence, it is worth starting from the complex systems approach and emergent phenomena, keeping in mind that many of these are computationally irreducible. In other words, the current state of the system depends on all previous states, in such a way that any change in the initial configuration must cause a significant difference in all posterior states. That is, there is a persistence of information over time - this is a concept directly related to long memory processes. Hence, based on complex systems simulations, three factors (possibly there are many others) were related to the rise of long memory processes: agents\' heterogeneity, occurrence of large deviations from the steady states (in conjunction with the motion laws of each system) and spatial complexity (which must influence on information propagation and on the dynamics of agents competition). In relation to the applied knowledge, first it is recognized that the explanatory factors for the rise of long memory processes are common to the structures/characteristics of real markets and it is possible to identify potential stylized facts when filtering the long memory components from time series - a considerable part of information present in time series is a consequence of the autocorrelation structure, which is directly related to the specificities of each market. Given that, in this thesis was developed a new risk contagion technique that does not need any further intervention. This technique is basically given by the calculation of rolling correlations between long memory filtered series of the conditional variances for different economies, such that these filtered series contain the stylized facts (risk peaks), free from possible overreactions caused by market idiosyncrasies. Then, based on the identification of risk contagion episodes related to the 2007/2008 Subprime Crisis in the U.S. and its respective contagion to the Brazilian economy, it was filtered out from the conditional variance of the Brazilian assets (which are an uncertainty measure) aiming at eliminating the contagion episodes and, consequently, it was made a counterfactual projection of what would have happened to the Brazilian economy if the risk contagion episodes had not occurred. Moreover, in conjunction with the evolutionary trend of the Brazilian economy prior to the crisis, it is possible to conclude that 70% of the economic crisis posterior to the 2008 events was caused by macroeconomic policies and only 30% is due to the effects of risk contagion episodes from the U.S. / O presente trabalho tem como objetivo discutir os principais aspectos teóricos ligados à ocorrência dos processos de memória longa e sua respectiva aplicação em economia e finanças. Para discutir os principais aspectos teóricos da sua ocorrência, recorre-se primeiramente à abordagem de sistemas complexos e fenômenos emergentes, tendo em vista que muitos destes são irredutíveis computacionalmente, ou seja, o estado atual do sistema depende de todos os estados anteriores, tal que, qualquer mudança nos instantes iniciais deve causar significativa diferença nos estados posteriores. Em outras palavras, há uma persistência da informação - conceito este intimamente ligado à memória longa. Portanto, com base em simulações de sistemas complexos computacionais, três fatores (podendo haver outros mais) foram relacionados ao surgimento de processos de memória longa: heterogeneidade dos agentes, ocorrência de grandes desvios do equilíbrio do sistema (em consonância com as respectivas leis do movimento de cada sistema estudado) e a complexidade espacial (que deve influenciar na propagação da informação e na dinâmica competitiva dos agentes). Em relação à aplicação do conhecimento, primeiro é reconhecido que os fatores explicativos para o surgimento de processos de memória longa são inerentes a estruturas/características de mercados reais e que é possível identificar potenciais fatos estilizados, ao filtrar as componentes de memória longa de séries temporais - grande parte da informação presente nas séries é função da estrutura de autocorrelação que advém das especificidades de cada mercado. Com base nisso, nesta tese foi desenvolvida uma nova técnica de estimação de contágio de risco, que não necessita intervenções adicionais, tendo em vista a identificação prévia de potenciais fatos estilizados em diferentes economias, utilizando as séries filtradas de variância condicional, tal que a partir destas séries filtradas é calculada uma correlação com horizonte móvel de observações entre choques (picos de risco) de curto prazo livres de possíveis reações causadas por idiossincrasias de cada mercado. Posteriormente, com base na identificação dos episódios ligados à Crise do Subprime de 2007/2008 nos Estados Unidos e seu respectivo contágio para a economia brasileira, filtrou-se a variância condicional dos ativos brasileiros (que é uma medida de incerteza), objetivando-se eliminar os eventos de contágio e, consequentemente, foi feita uma projeção contrafactual da evolução da economia, caso os episódios da crise não tivessem ocorrido. Com base nestes dados e com uma análise da tendência evolutiva da economia brasileira no período anterior à crise, constatou-se que 70% da crise econômica vivenciada no Brasil no período pós-2008 é decorrente de falhas na condução da política macroeconômica e somente 30% decorre dos efeitos do cenário externo na economia.

Submitted by Artur Godinho (arturdg@gmail.com) on 2018-09-24T17:11:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Artur Godinho v13.pdf: 875292 bytes, checksum: 72ea725390d37839282e0e0a3110e8dc (MD5) / Rejected by Joana Martorini (joana.martorini@fgv.br), reason: Prezado Artur, boa tarde. Deverá inserir a numeração das paginas a partir da introdução. Após a realização desse ajuste, postar novamente para aprovação. Att, Joana Alves. on 2018-09-24T19:05:18Z (GMT) / Submitted by Artur Godinho (arturdg@gmail.com) on 2018-09-24T19:53:55Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Artur Godinho v14.pdf: 876208 bytes, checksum: 1b66ca0441aec5a323ef39d218a7ea96 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Joana Martorini (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2018-09-25T14:41:33Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Artur Godinho v14.pdf: 876208 bytes, checksum: 1b66ca0441aec5a323ef39d218a7ea96 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzane Guimarães (suzane.guimaraes@fgv.br) on 2018-09-25T16:22:39Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Artur Godinho v14.pdf: 876208 bytes, checksum: 1b66ca0441aec5a323ef39d218a7ea96 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-25T16:22:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Artur Godinho v14.pdf: 876208 bytes, checksum: 1b66ca0441aec5a323ef39d218a7ea96 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-08-29 / Este trabalho busca aprimorar um dos métodos de construção de indicadores coincidentes mais utilizados da atualidade, desenvolvido pelo The Conference Board (TCB). Esses indicadores buscam detectar mudanças no ciclo econômico de curto prazo. Para isso foi proposta a adição de uma variável que mede a demanda de fretes no cálculo do indicador e uma mudança da metodologia de determinação da relevância (ou peso) de cada variável no indicador. A nova variável é produzida pela Fretebras, uma empresa privada que atua a nível nacional no setor de transporte de cargas. Foram gerados novos indicadores coincidentes com as alterações propostas e comparados com a metodologia atual através de um indicador coincidente de referência. A adição da nova variável permitiu uma melhoria no indicador, bem como a proposta de mudança de metodologia, que neste caso, apresentou impacto mais expressivo na capacidade preditiva do indicador. / This paper seeks to improve the coincident indicator construction method developed by The Conference Board (TCB), one of the most commonly used of the actuality. These indicators seek to detect changes in the short-term economic cycle. In order to do so, it was proposed to add a variable that measures freight demand in the calculation of the indicator and a change in the methodology for determining the relevance (or weight) of each variable in the indicator. The new variable is produced by Fretebras, a private company that operates at the national level in the cargo transportation sector. New coincident indicators with the proposed changes were generated and compared with the current methodology through a benchmark coincident indicator. The addition of the new variable allowed an improvement in the indicator, as well as the proposed change in methodology, which in this case had a more significant impact on the predictive capacity of the indicator.

Le rôle économique de l’État fait l’objet de nombreuses controverses autant dans le cadre théorique que du point de vue pratique. Les acteurs de ces controverses sont les objecteurs de l’efficacité de l’intervention publique depuis Smith à nos jours, les keynésiens et les économistes de la synthèse néo-classique. Divers thèmes allant du principe de la main invisible, de l’impôt, des anticipations, du fardeau de la dette, de l’effet d’éviction, de la production de biens publics sont questionnés à travers de tels débats. Le travail explique la ventilation des composantes des dépenses publiques et leurs conséquences suivant le développement (OCDE, BRICS et UEMOA). L’étude montre également que les effets des dépenses publiques et de leurs composantes sur l’activité économique sont différents suivant le niveau de revenu des pays. Enfin, ce travail de recherche suggère que la taille optimale des dépenses publiques et celle de leurs composantes sont une fonction croissante du niveau de développement à l’exception des dépenses militaires. / The economic role of the State has been the subject of much debate both from theoretical and the practical perspectives. The actors of these controversies include the objectors of the efficiency of the public intervention since Smith to the present days, Keynesians and economists of the synthesis. Topics ranging from principle of the invisible hand, tax, expectations, burden of the debt, crowding out effect, public sector production are treated through of such debates. The work explains the breakdown of public spending components and implications for countries at levels development (OECD, BRICS, and WAEMU). The study also indicated that the effects of the public spending and its components on the economic activity are different according countries’ stage of development. A lastly, research work suggests that the optimal size of the public spending and its components are an increasing function of the level of development with the exception of military expenditures.

Czech Republic, like other European developed countries, has to deal with impacts of population ageing. The number of older people in society grows therefore the drain on workers in productive age is rising. Population ageing causes problems within current setting of the Czech pension system, especially in long-term sustainability of public finance. Hence added involvement of elderly people into working process becomes necessary. The goal of this Masters thesis is to analyse the situation of older workers on Czech labour market between 2005 and 2015 and to find some possible solutions that would increase the employment rate of people before and in retirement age. There are four chapters in the theoretical part that are dealing with population ageing, labour market, specificities of employing older workers and tools used to increase the employment rate. The practical part is focused on demographic situation in the Czech Republic and especially on analysis of the situation of older workers on the Czech labour market in comparison to countries of the European Union. Analysis that was carried out confirms that the overall employment rate of older workers in the Czech Republic is on a good level however there are some areas that need to be improved. For example, option of using part time working contracts is underused as well as the motivation of elderly people to stay economically active. In the last chapter there are possible solutions suggested. These recommendations could strengthen motivation of older workers to stay on labour market and in the same time should motivate employers to employ these workers.

This diploma thesis deals with questions on value added tax of municipalities. In the first chapter is defined the term public body. The second chapter describes the most important provisions of the VAT Code, focusing on specificities of municipalities. This chapter also describes the main characteristics of the proposed solutions which are analysed in the Copenhagen Economics study. The practical part is focused on concrete examples of application of the VAT Code and analyses impact of the selected change on the tax liability of municipality.

The thesis is dealing with the older workers in the labour market. The aim of this thesis is to analyse and evaluate the situation of the older workers in the labour market in the Czech Republic, especially in the years 2000 and 2005-2015, or even in 2015, with the focus on the indicators of the labour market, on the position of the older workers in this market according to selected aspects, and on the instruments affecting and encouraging these workers in the labour market. The thesis consists of the theoretical and the practical part. The theoretical part defines the problem of the demographic aging population, because this process is one of the reasons, why it is necessary to pay attention to the older workers in the labour market. This theoretical part is also dealing with the employment, unemployment, employment policy and strategic documents in relation to the older workers. The practical part begins with the demographic development in the Czech Republic, the following chapters are dealing with the analysis of the labour market indicators, instruments to support the older workers in the labour market and the comparison of the Czech Republic and EU states.

Diploma thesis is focused on understanding the causes of gender pay gap, especially in connection with parenthood and related differences between male and female qualification- and career development and their respective time schedule. Using statistical methods and software instruments Statgraphics and Microsoft Excel the thesis attempts to describe the influence of parenthood and other significant factors such as age, education, occupational status or work field on economic activity and total personal income with respect to gender pay gap.

[pt] Este trabalho tem um duplo objetivo. Em primeiro lugar, investiga qual o efeito da incerteza sobre a atividade econômica no Brasil. Para isso, são construídas diversas proxies que buscam captar o nível de incerteza vigente no Brasil (incerteza doméstica) e em vários de seus principais parceiros comerciais (incerteza externa). Em seguida, são estimados modelos de vetores autorregressivos (SVAR), em linha com Baker, Bloom e Davis (2016). Os resultados obtidos sugerem que a incerteza tem efeitos contracionistas relevantes sobre a economia brasileira. Em segundo lugar, estuda qual o efeito da incerteza sobre o poder da política monetária no Brasil. Para tanto, são construídos diversos modelos de vetores autorregressivos interativos (IVAR), tal como proposto por Aastveit, Natvik e Sola (2013), porém estimados por LASSO Adaptativo. As estimativas obtidas não corroboram a hipótese de que sob alta incerteza os efeitos da política monetária sobre a atividade são menores do que sob baixa incerteza. Este resultado, no entanto, não é robusto. / [en] This work has a dual purpose. First of all, we investigate the effect of uncertainty on economic activity in Brazil. In order to do that, we construct several proxies which seek to capture the uncertainty level prevailing in Brazil (domestic uncertainty) and in several of our major trading partners (external uncertainty). Next, we estimate vector autoregressive (SVAR) models, in line with Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). The results suggest that uncertainty has, in fact, contractionary effects on the activity in Brazil. Second, we study the effect of uncertainty on effectiveness of monetary policy in Brazil. Thus, we make use of interacted vector autoregressive (IVAR) models, as proposed by Aastveit, Natvik and Sola (2013), estimated, however, by Adaptive LASSO. Our estimates do not corroborate the hypothesis that under high uncertainty the effects of monetary policy on the activity are lower than under low uncertainty.