Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2017-10-31T11:52:29Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Mariel Liberato Schwartz.pdf: 1113987 bytes, checksum: 3a33148ee69f1ca00795ddbb306c5724 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-10-31T11:52:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Mariel Liberato Schwartz.pdf: 1113987 bytes, checksum: 3a33148ee69f1ca00795ddbb306c5724 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-10-17 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The critical analysis of the processes of accumulation, concentration and centralization of capital in the Brazilian economy define the core of this Dissertation. It starts from Marx's critical perspective in the context of a supposed expansion of competition in market economies. From this theoretical basis it is possible to return to the understanding of the influence of leading companies in price formation, following the path stressed by Kalecki, as well as to make clear the association between neoliberalism and concentration of capital in the Brazilian economy, with emphasis on some strategic sectors. Within this horizon, the forms of control exercised by corporations over their competitors, supported by their most advanced level of technological dominance, their scale of production and the advantages derived therefrom, limit both the entry of new capital and competition, resulting in centralization of capital in the form of mergers and acquisitions, leading to the narrowing of the capital base involved in the dispute. For Chesnais (1996, 2016), the world oligopoly must be regarded as the general form of contemporary market structures. Since the 1970s the concentration and centralization of the world economy has increased, either in specific forms of reducing competition or through the power of collective monopoly by large economic groups. The internationalization of capital is the process which transforms the production and appropriation of surplus value into a movement realized beyond the original, domestic spaces of capitalist accumulation. The insertion of the Brazilian economy in this world process was accentuated in the 1990s and consolidated in the 2000s: it was a question of accelerating the opening of the economy leading to an increase in the centralization of capital and consequent internationalization of the Brazilian economy, especially through mergers and acquisitions, a historical process of extensive productive reengineering, weakening the participation of the Brazilian State in the mediation and regulation of capitalist accumulation. The central result of the dissertation is to make explicit, with reference to Marx's legacy, the relation between the evolution of the processes of concentration and centralization of capitals in Brazil and a new stage of globalization, allowing to illuminate the rising power of corporations, their power over the determination of prices and on the dynamics of economic policies, inserting the Brazilian case in the changes implied by the recent crisis. If our work of synthesis and conceptual revision serves the eminently pedagogic purpose of alerting clearly and objectively to the risks of the neoliberal orthodoxy, it will have paid, albeit in a preliminary way, to the anguish of a generation that has not given up hope, while facing an unprecedented onslaught of economic and political forces that rule through fear, ignorance and consenting subordination / A revisão teórica, histórica e de indicadores dos processos de acumulação, concentração e centralização de capital na economia brasileira a partir da mundialização nos anos 90 constitui o cerne desta Dissertação. Trata-se de recuperar a perspectiva aberta por Marx no contexto de uma suposta ampliação da concorrência em economias de mercado, especialmente na periferia capitalista. A partir dessa perspectiva teórica e histórica é possível retomar o entendimento da influência das empresas líderes na formação de preços, seguindo a trilha apontada por Kalecki, assim como deixar clara a associação entre neoliberalismo e concentração de capitais na economia brasileira, com destaque para alguns setores estratégicos após a estabilização de preços (Plano Real). Ganham relevância as formas captura da política econômica assim como os mecanismos de controle que as corporações impõem aos concorrentes, amparadas em seu nível mais avançado de domínio tecnológico, na sua escala de produção e nas vantagens que daí derivam, dificultando a entrada de capitais ou acirrando a rivalidade com os concorrentes, resultando em centralização de capital na forma de fusões e aquisições, levando ao estreitamento da base de capitais envolvidos na disputa. A perspectiva histórica, amparada pela obra de Chesnais, ressalta o oligopólio mundial como a forma geral das estruturas contemporâneas de mercado. Desde os anos 1970 a concentração e centralização da economia mundial são elevadas, seja na forma específica de limitação à competição, seja via poder de monopólio dos grandes grupos econômicos. A internacionalização do capital é um processo em que a produção e a apropriação de mais-valia são realizadas para além dos espaços de origem dos capitalistas. A inserção da economia brasileira nesse processo de mundialização acentua-se na década de 1990 e se consolida nos anos 2000: tratou-se de acelerar a abertura da economia e fomentar a centralização de capital, processo histórico de ampla reengenharia produtiva, fragilizando a participação do Estado brasileiro na mediação de conflitos e direcionamento do ajuste produtivo. O resultado central da dissertação é explicitar, tendo como referência o legado de Marx, a relação entre a evolução dos processos de concentração e centralização de capitais no Brasil e uma nova etapa da mundialização, permitindo iluminar o processo de ampliação do poder das corporações, inclusive na determinação de preços e na dinâmica da política econômica, inserindo o caso brasileiro nas mudanças implicadas pela crise recente. Se este nosso trabalho de síntese e revisão conceitual servir ao propósito eminentemente didático de alertar com clareza e objetividade para os riscos da ortodoxia doutrinária liberal já terá atendido, ainda que de modo preliminar, à angústia de uma geração que não perdeu a esperança, mas se depara com uma ofensiva sem precedentes das forças econômicas e políticas que imperam através do medo, da ignorância e da subordinação consentida

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1979. / Bibliography: p. 96-98.

This dissertation studies how the digitalization of commercial banking affects bank competition, financial stability, and monetary policy transmission. In the first chapter, The Digital Banking Revolution: Reduced Form Evidence, I use hand-collected data and a novel identification strategy to show that after adopting digital platforms, banks branchlessly operate in more markets, and mid-size banks, those with relatively high quality digital platforms but without extensive branch networks, grow faster. Further, bank balance sheet composition tilts to uninsured deposits on the funding side, and to high income borrowers on the loan side. In the second chapter, The Digital Banking Revolution: Aggregate Effects on Competition and Stability, in order to disentangle the underlying mechanisms and quantify aggregate effects, I build a structural model of the U.S. banking system and compare the observed digital equilibrium to a counterfactual without digital platforms. The model allows for endogenous adoption of digital platforms, branch networks, market entry, and accounts for digitalization among non-banks. Digitalization decreases local and national market concentration, and average markups fall in deposit and loan markets, holding fixed the size of the banking sector. Consumers capture most of the surplus created by digitalization, however it accrues mostly to wealthier segments of the economy. As for stability, it increases the average market share of lightly-regulated mid-sized banks, increases the uninsured deposits ratio of the banking sector while re-sorting uninsured deposits towards larger digital banks, and doubles credit risks associated with lending in market segments that are less-well served by digital technologies. In sum, digital banking increases competition and poses risks to financial stability. In the third chapter, Destabilizing Digital "Bank Walks", which is co-authored with Tano Santos and Luigi Zingales, we study the impact of digital banking on the value of the deposit franchise and the transmission of monetary policy through bank balance sheets. We find that when the Fed funds rate increases, deposits flow out faster and the cost of deposits increases more in banks with a digital platform. The results are similar for insured and non-insured deposits. We find that correcting for digital betas and deposit outflows results in a deposit franchise value that is significantly lower for digital-broker banks relative to a traditional bank without digital platform. We apply this analysis to Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and find that the reduced value of the deposit franchise explains why SVB was insolvent in early March 2023, even before the bank run occurred.

The intent of the author is to establish a methodology for future forcible interventions in the affairs of failed, failing or rogue and terrorist sponsoring states in order to stabilize and democratize these nations in accordance with stated United States' goals. The argument follows closely current and developing United States military doctrine on stabilization, reconstruction and counterinsurgency operations. Further the author reviews several past interventions from 1844 to the present. Conducting a survey of colonial, imperialist as well as pre and post World War II, Cold War, post Cold War and post September 11th interventions to determine the techniques and procedures that proved most successful, the author proposes a program of intervention and reconstruction called Progressive Reconstruction that incorporates many of the successful activities of these past and present doctrines. The cornerstone of the methodology is the combination of rapid decisive combat and stabilization operations leading into a series of governmental transitions from foreign direct and indirect to indigenous independent rule.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Marcelo Alvares de Lima Depieri.pdf: 557114 bytes, checksum: d139de02c820cbd3821912c271d8a16c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-05-18 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The purpose of this paper is to analyse the realtionships between three stabilization plans and their political regimes. The first chapter presents a period of the braszilian industrialization, throughout the Importations Substition Process (ISP), concluding that, in the middle of the fifties and early in the sisties, the Brazilian economics needed some changes to its economic policy, besides it would necessary to realize institutional reforms. Moreover at the first chapter, we will analyse the main properties of the democratic populist regime. The populism was the background of two stabilization plans the Monetary Stabilization Plan (MSP) and the Triennial Plan wich were not implemented. The second chapter will examine the difficulties to apply economic policies of stabilization, at Juscelino Kubistchek s government (with MSP) and also at João Goulart s government with Triennial Plan. The idea is to pay attention to the politic matter, emphasizing the pressures above the governments done by the workers and by the bourgeoisie, not to accomplish the stabilization plans. At last, the third chapter will discuss the relation between the regime of exception settled in Brazil since 1964 and the accomplishment of the economic policies at that time, interlacing Castelo Branco s government authoritarian regime with the plan of economic satabilization by Campos and Bulhões the government Economic Action Program / Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar as relações entre três planos de estabilização e seus regimes políticos. No primeiro capítulo apresentar-se-á um período da industrialização brasileira, via Processo de Substituição de Importações (PSI), concluindo que em meados dos anos 50 e início dos anos 60 a economia brasileira necessitava de algumas mudanças na política econômica e que seria necessário realizar reformas institucionais. Ainda no primeiro capítulo analisaremos as principais características do regime democrático populista. O populismo foi pano de fundo para dois planos de estabilização, o Plano de Estabilização Monetária (PEM) e o Plano Trienal, os quais não foram implementados. O segundo capítulo examinará as dificuldades para a aplicação de políticas econômicas de estabilização nos governos de Juscelino Kubistchek com o PEM e de João Goulart com o Plano Trienal. A idéia é chamar atenção para o fator político ressaltando as pressões da classe trabalhadora e da burguesia nos governos para a não efetivação dos planos de estabilização. Por fim, no terceiro capítulo, discutir-se-á a relação entre o regime de exceção instalado no Brasil a partir de 1964 e a execução das políticas econômicas da época, entrelaçando o regime autoritário do Governo Castelo Branco com o plano de estabilização econômica de Campos e Bulhões, o Programa de Ação Econômica do Governo (PAEG)

The control of inflation requires a forecast of the future path of the price level and its indicators. Targeting inflation directly requires that the central bank (SARB) form forecasts of the likely path of prices paying close attention to a variety of indicators that shows the predictive power of inflation in the past periods. Inflation indicators might be cointegrated with the rate of inflation to predict the future inflation rates. Forecasting inflation may be very difficult at a particular period due to the fact that the array candidate indicators of inflation may neither be very stable nor very strong in their relationships with the rate of inflation. Although this might be the case, this research uses testable effects of each of the South African inflation indicators to the rate of inflation using econometrics tools to find that they have a long run trend with the rate of inflation in South Africa. It has been found that each of the indicator variables has a long run relationship with the rate of inflation. The major conclusion is that inflation indicator variables like money supply (M3), oil price, gold price, total employment, interest rates, exchange rates and output growth can be useful inflation indicators in targeting the future trends of inflation in South Africa according to the data used in this research although some studies in some countries find that inflation targeting is an insufficient framework for monetary policy in the presence of financial exuberance. The money supply, the oil prices, interest rates, the exchange rates, prices of gold, the employment and output growth are co-integrated with the rate of inflation representing a long-run relationship.

This study seeks to investigate the trends and interactions of market volatility as a source of instability in the South African financial markets. Financial instability can be manifested in the form of banking and currency crisis, institutional failures and extreme asset price volatility. This study, however, focuses on a single aspect of financial instability - asset price volatility. Asset price volatility reflects changes in market expectations as investors react to such changes, and thus on its own is not necessarily a source of instability. However, volatility spillovers can propagate volatility shocks across the market, increasing the risk of widespread instability. Using a combination of graphical and trend analysis as well as more formal estimation techniques, the study examined volatility in the stock, money and foreign exchange markets. To obtain estimates of market volatility, the study experimented with various volatility models that include the GARCH, TARCH and EGARCH. An analysis of volatility interactions and the transmission of volatility shocks across the market is crucial to understanding financial instability. To examine volatility interaction and the transmission of volatility shocks, a VAR model was estimated. This framework allowed us to examine the propagation of shocks across the markets. Volatility in the financial markets was found to be highly persistent and in the case of exchange rates, volatility was also characterised by an increasing trend. Significant linkages between the financial markets were found. The links also extended to the volatility relationship as evidenced by significant volatility spillovers across the markets. While volatility spillovers from the money market were found in the stock market and the foreign exchange market, no volatility spillovers from these markets were found in the money market. Thus the money market was identified as the major source of volatility spillovers and shocks in the financial markets. These results highlighted the role of monetary policy in the financial system, specifically the need to make monetary policy stable and predictable to ensure that interest rate shocks are not an additional source of instability. / KMBT_363 / Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in

The topic researched for this project will be foreigh exchange hedging; the available forms, the uses, the procedures, and the value. This project will expand beyond the typical research and examine the value of hedging through the use of different foreign exchang currency trading strategies to small multinationational corporations.

Malgré les importants programmes économiques et financiers entrepris à la fin des années 80 et l’adoption du Pacte de convergence en 1999, les taux de croissance des Etats de l’UEMOA restent en deçà du niveau minimal de 7% requis pour la réalisation des Objectifs du Millénaire pour le Développement (OMD). Cette faiblesse du rythme de croissance conduit aujourd’hui à s’interroger sur l’efficacité des politiques économiques et en particulier, sur le rôle que devraient jouer les autorités publiques à travers la politique budgétaire. Nous analysons, à partir des données empiriques, le caractère procyclique de la politique budgétaire dans la zone UEMOA, en testant les éventuels retournements liés à l’adoption du Pacte de convergence. Ensuite, dans un deuxième temps, nous estimons à travers un modèle VAR structurel, l’impact dynamique des chocs budgétaires sur les fluctuations de l’activité économique des pays de l’UEMOA et leurs canaux de transmission. En dernier lieu, nous exposons d’abord les limites de l’approche utilisée par le FMI pour le calcul des contributions de la politique budgétaire à la croissance économique ; puis, nous proposons un modèle d’évaluation des effets de long terme de cette politique sur la croissance, tout en montrant les risques liés aux coupes budgétaires sur les investissements publics. Les résultats de cette thèse suggèrent l’adoption de règles budgétaires qui tiennent compte de la situation conjoncturelle de chaque pays, la rapidité dans l’action gouvernementale pour remédier à l’inertie des finances publiques et le renforcement des investissements publics productifs afin de mieux soutenir la croissance économique / Despite significant economic and financial programs undertaken in the late 80s and the adoption of the convergence Pact in 1999, the growth rate of Economic and Monetary Union of West Africa (EMUWA) countries remain below the minimum level of 7% required for the achievement of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). This low growth rate now leads to questions about the effectiveness of economic policy and, in particular, on the role to be played by public authorities through fiscal policy. We analyze empirical data through, the procyclicality of fiscal policy in the EMUWA and we test the possible reversals related to the adoption of the convergence Pact. Then, in a second step, we estimate from a structural VAR model, the dynamic impact of fiscal shocks on fluctuations in the economic activity of the EMUWA countries and their transmission channels. Finally, we discuss the limitations of the approach used by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to calculate the contributions of fiscal policy to economic growth; then, we propose an evaluation of the long-term effects of this policy model on growth, while showing the risks of cuts on public investment.The results of this thesis suggest the adoption of fiscal rules that take into account the economic situation of each country, the speed in government action to overcome the inertia of public finances and strengthening of productive public investments to better support economic growth

Economic sociologists have long produced rich accounts of the economy’s embeddedness in social relations and the hybridity of contemporary governance architectures. However, all too often, they contented themselves with merely disenchanting a liberal ontology that divides the social world into neatly differentiated spheres, such as the state and the economy or the public and the private. In this dissertation, I argue that this is not enough. If we want to understand actually existing economic government, we also need to attend to the consequences of its persistent violation of the precepts of liberal order. This dissertation does so by accounting for the simultaneity of the Federal Reserve’s rise to the commanding heights of the US economy and the repeated, multi-pronged controversies over it. I contend that together, the Fed’s ascendance and the controversies surrounding it are symptomatic of the contradictions inherent to a liberal mode of governing ‘the economy’ which, on the one hand, professes its investment in a clear boundary between the state and the economy but which, on the other hand, operationally rests on their entanglement. Its embeddedness in financial markets exposes the Fed to attacks that it is either colluding with finance or that it unduly smuggles in political considerations into an otherwise apolitical economy. In response, to secure its legitimacy as a neutral arbiter of market struggles, the Fed needs to invest in autonomization strategies to demonstrate that it is acting neither in the interests of capital nor on behalf of partisan politicians but in the public interest. Its autonomization strategies in turn feed back onto the modes of embeddedness and governing techniques the Fed deploys, often resulting in new controversies. Combining insights from economic sociology and the sociology of expertise, the perspective developed in this dissertation thus foregrounds the persistent tension between embeddedness and autonomy and the sequences of reiterated problem-solving it gives rise to.Based on extensive archival research and interviews with actors, I reconstruct three such sequences in the Fed’s more-than-a-century long quest for embedded autonomy in three independent but related empirical essays. The first focuses on the decade immediately following the Federal Reserve System’s founding in 1913. It traces how the confluence of democratic turmoil in the wake of World War I, its hybrid organizational structure, and an alliance with institutionalist economists led Fed policymakers to repurpose open market operations from a banking technique into a policy tool that reconciled different interests. This made it possible to take on a task no other central bank had attempted before: mitigating depressions. This major innovation briefly turned the Fed into “the chief stabilizer” before it failed to fulfill this role during the Great Depression. The essay thus adds a critical, oft-forgotten episode to the genealogy of the Fed’s ascendancy and the rise of central banks to the foremost macroeconomic managers of our time. The second essay most explicitly develops the theoretical argument underlying this dissertation and applies it to a practice that has been all but ignored in the scholarship on central banking and financial government: bank supervision. Emphasizing its distinctiveness from regulation, I reconstruct how the Fed folded supervision into its project of governing finance as a vital, yet vulnerable system over the course of the second half of the 20th century and into the 21st. I especially focus on the Fed’s autonomization strategies in the wake of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis and its internal struggles which resulted in a more standardized, quantitative, and transparent supervisory process centered around the technique of stress testing. However, the Fed’s efforts to reassert its autonomy and authority have in the meantime become attacked themselves. The essay traces these controversies, and subsequent reforms, to the present day, further demonstrating the recursive dynamic of the Fed’s quest for embedded autonomy. The third essay finally zooms in on a single event during the Great Financial Crisis: the first major public stress test run by the Fed and the Treasury between February and May 2009. By reconstructing its socio-technical assembling in detail and comparing it to the failures of stress tests run by European agencies between 2009 and 2011, I show that the stress test’s success rested on a reconfiguration of the state’s embeddedness in financial circuits, allowing the Treasury’s material and symbolic capital to back the exercise and the Fed to function as a conduit that iteratively gauged and shaped its audiences’ expectations as to what a credible test would look like. This made it possible to successfully frame the test as an autonomous exercise based on expertise. Probing the structural, socio-technical, and performative conditions of the Fed’s claims to legitimacy, the essay thus resolves the ‘mystery’ (Paul Krugman) how a simulation technique could become a watershed event in the greatest financial crisis in a lifetime.