本文旨在研究政治人物或政黨的表現如何影響選民對立法委員進行選舉課責。課責是民主政治運作的重要基石，而選舉機制則是體現政治課責最直接的制度設計。現有選舉課責研究多數聚焦於行政首長的表現如何影響選民的投票選擇，以立法委員選舉為對象的選舉課責研究相對顯得不足，且這些研究或者是在舊選制的架構內進行分析，或是旨在探索選民的分裂投票行為，未見新選制下的選舉課責研究。 本研究以2016年新北市與臺中市的立法委員選舉為例，分析選民對總統、市長、政黨、政黨立委與區域立委五種層面的表現評價如何影響其立委投票對象。企圖了解選民是否真的會因為現任者表現不佳而投給在野黨、或因滿意現任者表現而投給執政黨？而當不同層面的表現評價發生衝突時，哪一項的表現評價影響力更大？並藉由兩個不同黨籍的直轄市長，來解析過去研究未曾在立委選舉研究中觸及的地方首長施政表現因素會如何影響選民的投票抉擇。 本研究發現，選民在區域與不分區立委選舉中均會以市長與區域立委的表現作為課責依據，而政黨立委表現評價僅對區域立委選舉有影響，政黨表現評價及不分區名單印象則影響不分區立委選舉，至於過去研究認為會影響立委選舉結果的總統施政表現評價，反而在統計模型中未達顯著水準。這樣的結果，除了立委與政黨本身表現在各自選票上的影響力外，更凸顯了地方首長的施政表現對於立委選舉的重要性，當總統與立委選舉合併舉辦後，立委選舉不再是總統的期中成績單，而是地方首長的期中成績單與現任者的期末成績單，被課責的對象包含了現任者本身（立委與政黨）與地方首長。這些研究發現與既有的研究提供一個重要的對照與補充，也希望這些發現能提供未來選舉課責與地方治理研究的助益。 / Accountability is the cornerstone for the operation of democracy, and election is the mechanism realizing political accountability. Most studies on electoral accountability focused on the influence of presidential performance at the national level while the influences of legislators themselves and local governments are less concerned.This essay explores how the performance of the president, the legislators, the local governments, and the political parties influence electorate’s vote choice in the 2016 legislative elections in New Taipei City and Taichung City in Taiwan. Political accountability is operationalized as voter’s performance assessments of the president, the legislator, the city mayors, and the two major political parties. It is assumed that an electorate will be more likely to vote for the legislative candidate based on favorable assessments of her party’s president, legislators, city mayors, list of at-large candidates and overall party performance. The study finds that the performance of city mayors and the performance of (district as well at–large party list) legislators have exercised significant impact on voter’s choice. Meanwhile, voters’ assessment of political parties and impression of party list candidate will influence voter’s choice in the at-large legislative election. As for the evaluation of presidential performance which has been widely discussed in the literature, this essay finds only limited impact. As the elections for legislator and president are held concurrently, the impact of the presidential performance is overshadowed by the performance of local executives. These findings provide crucial comparison and supplementation with the previous studies of political accountability and offer valuable references for the future study of electoral accountability and local governance.

This master thesis focuses on the changes in domestic and foreign policy during the presidency of Michelle Bachelet in Chile (2006-2010). The goal of this study is to find out whether systemic changes in domestic politics and/or reorientation in foregin policy have taken place within the regional shift to the left. The paper is divided into four logically connected chapters. The conclusion is that, despite several partial changes in domestic sphere and a major emphasis in regional aspects of foreign policy, no aforementioned profound changes have occurred.

The peruvian political system is characterized by incumbent’s low reelection rates at sub-national level, in that sense, incumbency has been qualified as a disadvantage to politicians in search of reelection. Owing to that, the existence of some cases of mayors that have managed to stay in office for multiple periods of government is surprising; Magdalena del Mar is an exam- ple of it. In this district, Francis Allison has attained reelection in three consecutive elections, obtaining high percentages of vote. For that reason, the present article seeks to explain Allison’s trajectory in the office of district mayor, through political strategies analysis used to manage continuity in office and citizens’ perceptions of themselves. The importance of attributes linked to incumbency are stressed; in that sense, Allison’s success comes from his capacity to satisfy ci- tizens’ needs (using formal and informal governance mechanisms) and from his political ability. To succeeding its aim, the investigation has recourse to data compilation about the municipality; semi-structured interviews to government employees and key actors in civil society; and stratified multistage surveys in the district. / El sistema político peruano se caracteriza por las bajas tasas de reelección del incumbente a nivel subnacional; en ese sentido, la incumbencia ha sido calificada como una desventaja para los políticos en búsqueda de la reelección. Debido a ello, sorprende que, a nivel distrital, existan algunos casos de alcaldes que han logrado mantenerse en el cargo por múltiples periodos de go- bierno. Magdalena del Mar es un ejemplo de ello. En este distrito, Francis Allison ha logrado la reelección en tres períodos consecutivos, con altos porcentajes de votación. Por eso, el presente artículo busca explicar la trayectoria de Allison en el cargo de alcalde distrital a través del análisis de las estrategias políticas empleadas para lograr la continuidad en el cargo y de las percepciones ciudadanas sobre las mismas. Se destaca la importancia de atributos ligados a la incumbencia. De esta manera, el éxito de Allison proviene de su capacidad de satisfacer las necesidades de los ciu- dadanos (a través del uso de mecanismos formales e informales de la gestión gubernamental) y de su habilidad política. Para cumplir su objetivo, la investigación recurre a la recopilación de datos sobre la municipalidad; la realización de entrevistas semi-estructuradas a funcionarios públicos y a actores claves de la sociedad civil; y la aplicación de encuestas estratificadas polietápicas en el distrito.

Este trabalho busca analisar a trajetória do Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) nas eleições para prefeito de São Paulo no período de 1996 a 2012, tendo como foco seu desempenho nos diversos estratos socioeconômicos do eleitorado paulistano. Ao longo das eleições municipais disputadas, o partido cresceu e assumiu a posição de principal protagonista nas disputas, vencendo em 2000 e 2012. Entretanto, a consolidação desse crescimento não se manifestou de maneira uniforme nos diversos estratos socioeconômicos da cidade. A hipótese sugerida é a de que houve mudanças significativas no perfil do eleitorado petista. A partir da análise da literatura sobre o comportamento eleitoral na cidade, procurou-se reconstituir as características iniciais do eleitor do PT, a fim de verificar quais eram seus principais aspectos. Para essa análise, foram utilizados os dados dos surveys eleitorais das eleições paulistanas de 1996 a 2012 e, para verificar a existência de padrões geográficos na votação da agremiação nos distritos da cidade, foi empregada a técnica de análise espacial. Com isso, foi possível observar que: (1) nas primeiras eleições disputadas, o PT apresentava uma base popular, embora de pouca expressão, localizada geograficamente em uma região especifica: os distritos próximos ao ABC paulista; (2) houve mudanças na composição da base eleitoral do PT a partir das eleições de 2000, passando de um partido com um perfil de classe média (de 1985 a 2000) para um partido com apelo mais popular (de 2004 em diante). Se até então o voto petista estava localizado em uma periferia geográfica determinada da cidade, ele passa a acompanhar essa transformação, ganhando expressão na periferia socioeconômica do eleitorado paulistano. / This dissertation aims at analyzing the trajectory of the Workers Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) in the municipal elections for the post of Mayor of the city of São Paulo over the period comprising the years between 1996 and 2012 and it focuses on the partys performance with regard to the various socio-economic strata in São Paulo citys electoral roll. In the course of the municipal elections held over that period, the party was able to expand to the point of reaching the position of main protagonist in election fights, beating its opponents both in 2000 and 2012. Nevertheless, consolidation of such growth has not taken place in a uniform manner concerning the citys various socioeconomic strata. The hypothesis investigated herein is that there have been significant changes in the profile of PT voters. Departing from careful analysis of the available literature on the citys electoral behavior, one has sought to reconstruct the initial characteristics of PT voters so as to obtain their main features. So as to draw up this analysis, data from electoral survey researches of the São Paulos 1996-2012 municipal elections were closely examined. Additionally, the spatial analysis method was used in order to verify the existence of any geographic patterns related to the voters choice of this political organization in the various districts of the city. As a result, the following elements were found: 1) in the early elections taken, PT showed a popular power base, which, despite being of limited scope, was geographically situated within a specific area, i.e., the districts close to the so-called São Paulos ABC (the neighboring towns of Santo André, São Bernardo and São Caetano); 2) since the elections held in 2000, there have been changes in the make-up of PTs electoral base, seeing that it has moved from a party which had a middle-class profile (between 1985-2000) to one having a wider popular appeal (from 2004 onwards). Up until 2004 PTs winning ballots could be located in and around a certain geographic periphery of the city, but since then they have undergone the transformation described above and thus have gained volume in the socioeconomic periphery of São Paulos electoral body as a whole.

The aim of this thesis is to study how electoral authoritarian regimes remain resilient over time, by observing how they handle challenges to their rule. More specifically, the thesis will focus on the strategies used to legitimize further rule. This will be achieved by conducting a case study on Rwanda and investigating how the Rwandan government uses insecurity and threat perception to legitimize further rule during the period 2010-2019. The theoretical framework consists of both Andreas Schedler’s definition of an electoral authoritarian regime as well as securitization theory. The material used is speech acts by important actors from the time period in question as well as law changes and information on how existing laws are used. With the use of critical discourse analysis, the thesis concludes that the Rwandan government has developed a discourse of traitor/patriot by securitizing traitors, strategically varying in intensity throughout the time period. Political opposition is effectively repressed by referring to the threats mentioned in the speech acts. To successfully circumvent the main flaw of electoral authoritarian regimes according to Schedler’s theory (uncertainty), the Rwandan government creates uncertainties themselves and then refers to the very same uncertainties to legitimize continuous rule.

La investigación realizada en este documento tiene como objetivo demostrar la existencia de ciclos políticos en los procesos electorales de los gobiernos regionales peruanos, durante los años 2007 – 2018, con una temporalidad mensual y basándose en el modelos teórico de Shi y Sevensson (2006). De esta manera, para poder confirmar la hipótesis planteada se utiliza un modelo panel de efectos fijos. La principal conclusiones a las que se este documento llego son: Primero, la confirmación de la existencia de ciclos políticos marcados alrededor de las fechas de los procesos electorales de los gobiernos regionales peruanos y segundo, la confirmación de la importancia de realizar este tipo de estudios de manera mensual. / The investigation realized in this document have the objective of demonstrated the existence of budget cycle in the Peruvian reginal elections during the period 2007 - 2018 with a monthly temporality and it has been based in the theorical model of Shi and Sevensson (2006). In this way, to demonstrate this hypothesis this investigation uses a panel model with Fixed Effects Regression. The main conclusions that this document have are: First, the confirmation of the existence of the marked Budget Cycles around the date of the Peruvian regional elections and second, the confirmation of the relevance in the use of monthly temporality in studies of this type. / Trabajo de investigación

No description available.

No description available.

This thesis is a quantitative study based on survey data aiming to record to what degree voters in Swedish national elections (1998, 2006, 2010, 2018) have voted according to preferences in party leader, party politics or both. The purpose is to measure whether or not electoral presidentialization has affected voter behaviour towards what is called (in scholarly literature) the leader effect. The findings clearly show evidence of the leader effect - that a minority of voters put their vote on a party whose leader they like but whose politics they do not agree with and on a party they do not feel convinced by. A secondary, and in the thesis fulfilled, purpose is to create a methodology designed to measure the leader effect while isolating the definition of persons affected by the leader effect to persons who only like the leader. This is in contrast to methodologies in previous research which include persons that can also like the party, as long as they like the leader more, as affected by the leader effect.

The Swedish Social Democratic Party (SAP) was in power for decades by successfullyimplementing a “third way” policy based on Marxist ideology. This policy was unique since itsimultaneously spurred economic growth, welfare, and equality between classes. Therefore,this study examined why the party lost the election 1976, despite implementing this “thirdway” policy. By scrutinizing scientific books, articles, and a dissertation on the subject, fourtheories were identified. These four theories were tested against three books that identify whySAP lost the election 1976. The results show that SAP lost primarily by going against theSAP voters’ opinion by supporting the use of nuclear energy. In addition, a weak economyand unemployment hampered the party’s ability to continue implementing welfare reforms.The conclusion is that SAP lost the election 1976 due to supporting nuclear energy use wheneconomic growth declined and voters had little trust in the party’s ability to stimulate welfare.