This study aims to analyze the determinants of the current account deficits for a broad samples of industrial and developing countries for the period 1984-2001. Using a dynamic panel data estimation procedure, we try to unfold the impact of several macro economic and institutional variables on current account deficits. In this context, we also examine the validity of Feldstein Horioka puzzle and its relevance to the current account imbalances. Results show that better governance, a more sophisticated financial system, relatively larger country size and deterioration in the terms of trade are associated with higher current account deficits. On the other hand, exchange rate regime flexibility, openness to foreign trade and depreciation of the real exchange rate lead to smaller current account deficits. We also find that the saving investment relationship is still considerably high both in the short run and in the long run.

Univ., Diss.--Kiel, 2007. / Internetausg.: http://eldiss.uni-kiel.de/macau/receive/dissertation_diss_00002839.

xiii, 160 p. : ill. A print copy of this thesis is available through the UO Libraries. Search the library catalog for the location and call number. / Feldstein and Horioka (1980) motivated the international finance literature by claiming a least squares regression of domestic investment rates on domestic savings rates is an informative measure of capital mobility. Their method stirred up controversy when they interpreted a high correlation between savings and investment rates as evidence of capital immobility, creating the famous Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Current research starts with the Feldstein-Horioka result and shifts focus toward measuring short and long-run adjustments to external imbalances. The literature has implemented dynamic time-series and panel estimators to test the relationship. Following recent literature, each chapter in this dissertation jointly focuses on the adjustment process of current account imbalances and the conditions required for capital mobility. The intent of this study is to show through the use of new estimation techniques previous results have been largely misguided. The starting point for this analysis is a thorough review of three key equations used in saving-investment regressions. The three models in question are an ordinary least squares model, error correction model, and an autoregressive distributive lag estimator. Each model is tested for stability, and it is found that a number of countries have an unstable relationship. One argument for the instability results is the presence of structural breaks. Previous literature has found that both variables follow non-stationary processes, but when using more powerful unit root tests and controlling for level shifts, both variables appear stationary. If each variable is stationary then previous methods assuming non-stationarity will produce incorrect inferences. Each series is optimally estimated for structural breaks, and through a mean differencing process the savings-investment coefficient is significantly reduced. Additionally, removing the exogenous breaks and using the lower frequency components allows for modeling the short-run current account adjustment process. Finally, the results are extended to measure the relationship in a panel framework using dynamic panel estimators and threshold effects. After controlling for structural breaks the coefficient decreases and exhibits a downward trend. The remaining correlation can be explained through trade openness and country size measures. / Committee: Nicolas Magud, Chairperson, Economics; Stephen Haynes, Member, Economics; Jeremy Piger, Member, Economics; Regina Baker, Outside Member, Political Science

Yes / We provide new evidence that current account balances in Greece, Portugal and Spain have become non-stationary after the adoption of the euro implying that there is no long-run stable relationship between savings and investment contrary to the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. This can be taken as evidence of unsustainable current account balances and loss of solvency for the underlying economies. Using the ARDL methodology we also report a statistical association between fiscal balances and current account balances which implies that fiscal austerity can help these economies to reduce their current account deficits and restore their competitiveness. Our empirical evidence also suggests a particularly strong significant negative association between domestic investment and current account deficits. The magnitude of this latter effect may have important policy implications concerning the ways in which investment is financed to improve external competitiveness.

This thesis presents three essays on the main determinants and regulations of international capital flows. The essays contribute to an ongoing significant debate among scholars and practitioners on what determines international capital flows by examining the following issues: Global liquidity, market sentiment and financial stability indices; Global liquidity and capital flow regulations; and Global governance and gross capital flows dynamics. In the first essay, we explore the main determinants of global liquidity, measured using cross-border claims of banks, and establish the link between a variety of financial stability indices and global liquidity. For a sample of 149 countries between 2000 and 2016, we find that Bloomberg Financial Stability Indices are more powerful in explaining global liquidity than FRED Financial Stress Indices and the Euro Area Systemic Stress Composite Indicator (CISS). Moreover, both market sentiment indices, namely the US Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) and the US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index are economically and statistically significant on cross-border bank flows. The research provides useful insights on what market sentiment and financial stability indices are better to employ for financial markets surveillance and as such practice of investment management. We argue that anyone interested in using financial stability indices as indicators of financial conditions and the level of financial stress would benefit from tracking several indices and not just one. The second essay examines the effectiveness of capital controls and macroprudential policies as ways to manage the volume of international capital flows, controlling for other determinants. The findings show that capital controls imposed on inflows generally prevail over controls imposed on outflows in reducing the magnitude of capital flows. The results are consistent with the pecking order theory on capital flows and are connected with the riskiness of different asset classes. For a sample of 112 countries over 2000 and 2016, we find that FX and/or countercyclical reserve (RR_REV) and general countercyclical capital buffer requirements (CTC), reserve requirement ratios (RR) and concentration limits (CONC) are the most effective macroprudential policies for managing countries' exposures to global liquidity fluctuations. Moreover, progress is being made to reduce the systemic risks created by systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) using macroprudential policies. The results reflect recent developments in Basel III regulations and shed light on the effective calibration of capital flow regulations to country-specific circumstances. The final essay examines the link between global governance indicators and patterns of gross capital flows, controlling for other determinants. For a sample of 67 countries between 2000 and 2016, we contribute to explain the existence of the Lucas paradox (1990) on "why doesn't capital flow from rich to poor countries" and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle (1980). The findings show that institutional quality rather than the effect of diminishing returns of capital is a key explanation for the Lucas paradox. Finally, we provide new evidence on the relationship between the multidimensional nature of financial development and gross capital flows. The findings show the importance and predominance of financial institutions versus financial markets in the dissemination of international capital flows across counties.