Design flood estimation in small to medium sized ungauged catchments is frequently required in hydrologic analysis and design and is of notable economic significance. For this task Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR) 1987, the National Guideline for Design Flow Estimation, recommends the Probabilistic Rational Method (PRM) for general use in South- East Australia. However, there have been recent developments that indicated significant potential to provide more meaningful and accurate design flood estimation in small to medium sized ungauged catchments. These include the L moments based index flood method and a range of quantile regression techniques. This thesis focuses on the quantile regression techniques and compares two methods: ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalised least squares (GLS) based regression techniques. It also makes comparison with the currently recommended Probabilistic Rational Method. The OLS model is used by hydrologists to estimate the parameters of regional hydrological models. However, more recent studies have indicated that the parameter estimates are usually unstable and that the OLS procedure often violates the assumption of homoskedasticity. The GLS based regression procedure accounts for the varying sampling error, correlation between concurrent flows, correlations between the residuals and the fitted quantiles and model error in the regional model, thus one would expect more accurate flood quantile estimation by this method. This thesis uses data from 133 catchments in the state of Victoria to develop prediction equations involving readily obtainable catchment characteristics data. The GLS regression procedure is explored further by carrying out a 4-stage generalised least squares analysis where the development of the prediction equations is based on relating hydrological statistics such as mean flows, standard deviations, skewness and flow quantiles to catchment characteristics. This study also presents the validation of the two techniques by carrying out a split-sample validation on a set of independent test catchments. The PRM is also tested by deriving an updated PRM technique with the new data set and carrying out a split sample validation on the test catchments. The results show that GLS based regression provides more accurate design flood estimates than the OLS regression procedure and the PRM. Based on the average variance of prediction, standard error of estimate, traditional statistics and new statistics, rankings and the median relative error values, the GLS method provided more accurate flood frequency estimates especially for the smaller catchments in the range of 1-300 km2. The predictive ability of the GLS model is also evident in the regression coefficient values when comparing with the OLS method. However, the performance of the PRM method, particularly for the larger catchments appears to be satisfactory as well. / Master of Engineering (Honours)

Using a multi-scale experimental approach, the research undertaken in this thesis investigated the role of the flood pulse in ephemeral floodplain wetlands of the River Murray, in order to better understand the impact of river regulation (and permanent inundation) on these wetlands. An ecosystem-based experiment was conducted on the River Murray floodplain, to compare changes in nutrient availability and phytoplankton productivity in three ephemeral wetlands (over a drying/reflooding cycle) with three permanently inundated wetlands. In the ephemeral wetlands, both drying and re-flooding phases were associated with significant increases in nutrient availability and, in some cases, phytoplankton productivity. It was demonstrated that the ?flood pulse?, as described by the Flood Pulse Concept (FPC), can occur in ephemeral wetlands in dryland river-floodplain systems, although considerable variation in the nature of the pulse existed amongst these wetlands. Results of this experiment suggest that factors such as the degree of drying and length of isolation during the dry phase, the rate of re-filling, timing of re-flooding and the number of drying/re-flooding cycles may be potentially important in producing the variation observed. Permanent inundation of ephemeral wetlands effectively removed these periods of peak nutrient availability and phytoplankton productivity, resulting in continuously low levels (of nutrient availability and phytoplankton productivity). It was concluded that alteration of the natural hydrological cycle in this way can significantly reduce nutrient availability, primary production and secondary production, essentially changing the structure and function, the ecology, of these wetlands. Equally, the results of this experiment indicate that some of the changes resulting from river regulation and permanent inundation can be somewhat reversed, within a relatively short period of time, given re-instatement of a more natural hydrological regime. A mesocosm experiment was used to examine the influence of the dry phase, specifically the effect of the degree of wetland drying, on patterns of nutrient availability and primary productivity comprising the flood pulse. Compared to permanent inundation, re-flooding of completely desiccated sediments increased carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) availability while partial drying generally decreased, or had little effect on, C and N availability after re-flooding. However, degree of drying had little effect on phosphorus availability or rates of primary production measured after re-flooding, and it is possible that these two factors are related. Partial drying reduced rates of community respiration after reflooding, possibly a reflection of the reduced carbon concentrations measured in these mesocosms in this phase of the experiment. Degree of drying also influenced the macrophyte community (measured after three months of flooding), with plant biomass generally decreasing and species diversity increasing as the degree of drying increased (with the exception of complete sediment desiccation which had lasting negative effects on both macrophyte biomass and species diversity). The results of the ecosystem and mesocosm experiments were utilised, in addition to results collected from the same experiment conducted at two smaller scales (minicosms and microcosms), to assess whether the effects of hydrological regime on nutrient availability at the ?wetland? scale could be replicated in smaller-scale experiments. None of the smaller-scaled experiments included in this investigation were able to replicate the specific response to hydrological regime recorded at the ecosystem scale, however the mesocosm experiment did produce results that were more similar to those at the ecosystem scale than those produced by the mini and microcosm experiments. The results of this study indicated that extrapolation of results from small-scale experiments should be undertaken with caution, and confirmed that a multi-scale approach to ecological research is wise, where large-scale field experimentation and/or monitoring provides a check on the accuracy, and hence relevance, of conclusions reached via mesocosm experiments.

Typescript. Includes bibliographical references (leaves [279]-287) This thesis examines the growth ring structure of Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehnhardt and investigates links between ring features and the climatic conditions under which growth took place. Samples of E. camaldulensis from the Barmah Forest (near the River Murray in northern Victoria) were used in the study. E. camaldulensis growth is linked to periodic flooding, and the Barmah Forest contains sites that are frequently flooded. Wood samples were obtained from sites subject to different average flooding frequencies. Trees used in the study grew out of natural regeneration in the 1920's and 1930's and from regeneration trials in the early 1960's. Initial investigation of E. camaldulensis samples revealed ring-like features that were able to be traced on samples by eye. Microscopic investigation showed that there existed considerable variations in the properties of individual rings at different positions on the samples, and that the boundaries between rings were often indistinct. Further examination of E. camaldulensis microstructure was performed on samples from two trees that grew on sites with significantly different flooding regimes. These samples possessed features that formed rings, with rings being successfully matched between samples taken from different heights in the trees. As the complex microstructure of E. camaldulensis did not lend itself to standard dendroclimatological techniques, methods were developed to facilitate the comparison and matching of rings. These methods were also used in the successful matching of ring patterns with the output from a simple climate-based tree growth model. Two sets of E. camaldulensis samples (BS1, with 33 samples, and BS2, with 39 samples) were studied to assess the level of individual variability in ring patterns, and to provide a representative ring pattern for climate comparison. Following the development of methods for identifying samples with similar ring patterns, a subset of similar samples was selected from the BS1 set. A member of this subset was selected to provide a ring-width pattern upon which a representative pattern of ring features for BS1 was based. The rings of the BS2 samples possessed poorer ring definition than the BS1 samples and provided no new or different information. Consequently, the representative ring pattern for BS1 was used in a dendroclimatological investigation for the site. The ring pattern was matched with the output from two tree growth event models. Although rings were matched with growth events over a 27 year period, the high variability of individual ring features prevented matching of particular types of ring features with particular types of climatic events. An investigation of numerical methods for matching ring patterns with ring or growth event patterns, and for identifying samples with similar ring patterns, was performed using signal smoothing and filtering techniques and a dynamic time-warping procedure. Ring matching and identification of similar ring patterns was found to be most successful on samples where the ring patterns, expressed as continuous signals, had similar mean and amplitude values. The techniques were unsuccessful in the matching of signals of different form, such as continuous ring pattern signals and discontinuous growth event signals.

Pre-flood (1995), and post-flood (1996) channel stability surveys were conducted on 22 reaches along Oak Creek, Benton County, Oregon in an effort to note if the flood of February 1996 altered the channel and if the channel stability survey that was being used accurately predicted the channels resistance to change resulting from a flood. The channel stability survey that was used was the method described in the 'Channel Stability Evaluation and Stream Reach Inventory' designed by the USDA Forest Service, Northern Region, in Colorado (Pfankuch, 1978). This was a non-parametric study, based on an opportunity to reoccupy survey locations from a previous study. A model was proposed to describe the 1995 ratings as predictions for change should a flood event occur. This predicted change was compared to the actual change that occurred as a result of the 1996 flood in order to test the surveys ability to accurately predict change. Changes in the survey totals, the 15 channel stability indicator items that compose the survey, and the sediment distribution were evaluated within and between years at the reach, station and stream scale. An increase in the percentage of fine gravel occurred at all scales when post-flood and pre-flood sediment distribution was compared. Except for an increase in fine gravel, the stream remained similar to its pre-flood state. In 1995, the stream's channel stability was rated as 'fair', indicating that a moderate amount of change should take place if a flood occurred. The 1995 predictions for change did not match the actual change observed after the February 1996 flood at the three scales when defined by the survey totals. When independently evaluating the fifteen individual channel stability indicator items, a considerable amount of change was detected at the reach level. Although change occurred in the indicator items at each reach, the stream average for each of the independent indicator items was similar between the two years. This may indicate that, although change occurred at the reach level, the stream maintained its physical diversity after the flood. The survey method was unable to accurately predict changes to Oak Creek incurred by the February 1996 flood when viewed at the entire stream level, yet it may be more applicable at the reach level when viewing specific changes to channel stability indicator items. In general, the Stream Reach Inventory and Channel Stability Evaluation is designed for observational efficiency but does not have sufficient scientific basis or measurement precision to accurately predict the extent or type of channel change. / Graduation date: 1998

The first part of this thesis aims at defining the conditions triggering muddy floods in the Belgian loess belt. On average, each municipality is confronted with 3.6 muddy floods each year. Annual costs associated with their off-site impacts are estimated at € 16-172 millions for the entire Belgian loess belt. A topographic threshold is derived to predict the source areas of muddy floods. Furthermore, the storms required to produce a flood are, on average, smaller in May and June (25 mm) than between July and September (46 mm). This difference is explained by the variability of soil surface characteristics that determine the runoff potential of cultivated soils (soil cover by crops and residues, soil surface crusting and roughness). Steady state infiltration rates of cropland and grassed areas were characterised in the field using a 0.5 m2-portable rainfall simulator. Overall, grassed areas have a lower infiltration rate (16-23 mm h-1) than croplands (25-52 mm h-1). Muddy floods are mostly observed between May-September because of the coincidence of critical soil surface conditions for runoff generation with the most erosive storms. After an adaptation of its decision rules to the local conditions, the STREAM expert-based model provides satisfactory runoff/erosion predictions at the catchment scale. The second part of the thesis aims at evaluating the effectiveness of measures to control muddy floods. A modelling case-study showed that peak discharge was reduced by more than 40% by installing a grassed waterway and a dam at the outlet of a 300 ha-catchment. Monitoring the same catchment (2002-2007) demonstrated that the grassed waterway as well as three dams prevented any muddy flood in the downstream village despite the occurrence of several extreme storms (with a maximum return period of 150 years). Peak discharge was reduced by 69%. Specific sediment yield dropped from 3.5 t ha-1 yr-1 to a mean of 0.5 t ha-1 yr-1 after the installation of the control measures, thereby reducing drastically sediment transfer to the alluvial plain. Finally, a methodology is provided to implement grassed waterways and earthen dams in other dry valleys in the Belgian loess belt and comparable environments.

Flood hazard estimations are conducted with a variety of methods. These include flood frequency analysis (FFA), hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, probable maximum discharges as well as climate scenarios. However, most of these methods assume stationarity of the used time series, i.e., the series must not exhibit trends. Against the background of climate change and proven significant trends in atmospheric circulation patterns, it is questionable whether these changes are also reflected in the discharge data. The aim of this PhD thesis is therefore to clarify, in a spatially-explicit manner, whether the available discharge data derived from selected German catchments exhibit trends. Concerning the flood hazard, the suitability of the currently used stationary FFA approaches is evaluated for the discharge data. Moreover, dynamics in atmospheric circulation patterns are studied and the link between trends in these patterns and discharges is investigated. To tackle this research topic, a number of different analyses are conducted. The first part of the PhD thesis comprises the study and trend test of 145 discharge series from catchments, which cover most of Germany for the period 1951–2002. The seasonality and trend pattern of eight flood indicators, such as maximum series and peak-over-threshold series, are analyzed in a spatially-explicit manner. Analyses are performed on different spatial scales: at the local scale, through gauge-specific analyses, and on the catchment-wide and basin scales. Besides the analysis of discharge series, data on atmospheric circulation patterns (CP) are an important source of information, upon which conclusions about the flood hazard can be drawn. The analyses of these circulation patterns (after Hess und Brezowsky) and the study of the link to peak discharges form the second part of the thesis. For this, daily data on the dominant CP across Europe are studied; these are represented by different indicators, which are tested for trend. Moreover, analyses are performed to extract flood triggering circulation patterns and to estimate the flood potential of CPs. Correlations between discharge series and CP indicators are calculated to assess a possible link between them. For this research topic, data from 122 meso-scale catchments in the period 1951–2002 are used. In a third part, the Mulde catchment, a mesoscale sub-catchment of the Elbe basin, is studied in more detail. Fifteen discharge series of different lengths in the period 1910–2002 are available for the seasonally differentiated analysis of the flood potential of CPs and flood influencing landscape parameters. For trend tests of discharge and CP data, different methods are used. The Mann-Kendall test is applied with a significance level of 10%, ensuring statistically sound results. Besides the test of the entire series for trend, multiple time-varying trend tests are performed with the help of a resampling approach in order to better differentiate short-term fluctuations from long-lasting trends. Calculations of the field significance complement the flood hazard assessment for the studied regions. The present thesis shows that the flood hazard is indeed significantly increasing for selected regions in Germany during the winter season. Especially affected are the middle mountain ranges in Central Germany. This increase of the flood hazard is attributed to a longer persistence of selected CPs during winter. Increasing trends in summer floods are found in the Rhine and Danube catchments, decreasing trends in the Elbe and Weser catchments. Finally, a significant trend towards a reduced diversity of CPs is found causing fewer patterns with longer persistence to dominate the weather over Europe. The detailed study of the Mulde catchment reveals a flood regime with frequent low winter floods and fewer summer floods, which bear, however, the potential of becoming extreme. Based on the results, the use of instationary approaches for flood hazard estimation is recommended in order to account for the detected trends in many of the series. Through this methodology it is possible to directly consider temporal changes in flood series, which in turn reduces the possibility of large under- or overestimations of the extreme discharges, respectively. / Hochwasserabschätzungen werden mit Hilfe einer Vielzahl von Methoden ermittelt. Zu diesen zählen Hochwasserhäufigkeitsanalysen, die hydrologische und hydraulische Modellierung, Abschätzungen zu maximal möglichen Abflüssen wie auch Langzeitstudien und Klimaszenarien. Den meisten Methoden ist jedoch gemein, dass sie stationäre Bedingungen der beobachteten Abflussdaten annehmen. Das heißt, in den genutzten Zeitreihen dürfen keine Trends vorliegen. Vor dem Hintergrund des Klimawandels und nachgewiesener Trends in atmosphärischen Zirkulationsmustern, stellt sich jedoch die Frage, ob sich diese Veränderungen nicht auch in den Abflussdaten widerspiegeln. Ziel der Dissertation ist daher die Überprüfung der Annahme von Trendfreiheit in Abflüssen und Großwetterlagen, um zu klären, ob die aktuell genutzten stationären Verfahren zur Hochwasserbemessung für die vorhandenen Daten in Deutschland geeignet sind. Zu prüfen ist des Weiteren, inwiefern regional und saisonal eine Verschärfung bzw. Abschwächung der Hochwassergefahr beobachtet werden kann und ob eindeutige Korrelationen zwischen Abflüssen und Großwetterlagen bestehen. Den ersten Schwerpunkt der vorliegenden Dissertation bildet die deutschlandweite Analyse von 145 Abflusszeitreihen für den Zeitraum 1951–2002. Acht Hochwasserindikatoren, die verschiedene Aspekte der Hochwasser-Charakteristik beleuchten, werden analysiert und bezüglich möglicher Trends getestet. Um saisonalen Unterschieden in der Hochwassercharakteristik der einzelnen Regionen gerecht zu werden, werden neben jährlichen auch saisonale Reihen untersucht. Die Analyse von Maximalreihen wird durch Schwellenwertanalysen ergänzt, die die Hochwasserdynamik bzgl. Frequenz und Magnitude detaillierter erfassen. Die Daten werden auf verschiedenen Skalen untersucht: sowohl für jeden einzelnen Pegel wie auch für ganze Regionen und Einzugsgebiete. Nicht nur die Analyse der Abflussdaten bietet die Möglichkeit, Bewertungen für die zukünftige Hochwasserabschätzung abzuleiten. Auch Großwetterlagen bilden eine bedeutende Informationsquelle über die Hochwassergefahr, da in der Regel nur ausgewählte Zirkulationsmuster die Entstehung von Hochwasser begünstigen. Die saisonal differenzierte Untersuchung der Großwetterlagen und die Prüfung einer Korrelation zu den Abflüssen an 122 mesoskaligen Einzugsgebieten bilden deshalb den zweiten Schwerpunkt der Arbeit. Hierzu werden tägliche Daten der über Europa dominierenden Großwetterlage (nach Hess und Brezowsky) mit Hilfe verschiedener Indikatoren untersucht. Analysen zum Hochwasserpotential der einzelnen Wetterlagen und weiterer Einflussfaktoren werden für das mesoskalige Einzugsgebiet der Mulde in einer separaten Studie durchgeführt. Für diese Detail-Studie stehen 15 Abflusszeitreihen verschiedener Länge im Zeitraum 1909–2002 zur Verfügung. Um die Daten von Abflüssen und Großwetterlagen bezüglich vorhandener Trends zu testen, werden verschiedene Methoden genutzt. Der Mann-Kendall Test wird mit einem Signifikanzniveau von 10% (zweiseitiger Test) angewendet, was statistisch sichere Bewertungen ermöglicht. Neben der Prüfung der gesamten Datenreihe werden multiple zeitlich-variable Trendanalysen mit Hilfe eines Resampling-Ansatzes durchgeführt. Darüber hinaus werden räumlich differenzierte Analysen durchgeführt, um die saisonale Hochwassercharakteristik einzelner Regionen besser zu verstehen. Diese werden durch Tests zur Feldsignifikanz der Trends ergänzt. Mit der vorliegenden Arbeit kann gezeigt werden, dass die Hochwassergefahr für einzelne Regionen im Winterhalbjahr signifikant steigt. Davon sind insbesondere Gebiete in Mitteldeutschland betroffen. Die Verschärfung der Hochwassergefahr durch eine längere Persistenz ausgewählter Großwetterlagen konnte ebenfalls für das Winterhalbjahr nachgewiesen werden. Sommerhochwasser zeigen zwar ebenfalls steigende, aber auch fallende Trends, die räumlich geclustert sind. Im Elbe- und Weser-Einzugsgebiet sinken die Abflüsse signifikant, im Donau- und Rheineinzugsgebiet steigen sie nachweisbar. Darüber hinaus ist eine signifikante Abnahme der Anzahl verschiedener Großwetterlagen sowohl im Sommer als auch im Winter zu verzeichnen. Bzgl. der Studie zum Mulde-Einzugsgebiet konnte ein zweigeteiltes Hochwasserregime nachgewiesen werden. In den Wintermonaten treten häufig kleine Hochwasser auf, die auch die Mehrheit der jährlichen Maximalwerte bilden. Sommerhochwasser sind seltener, können aber extreme Ausmaße annehmen. Ein Vergleich der geschätzten Jährlichkeiten mit verschiedenen Zeitreihen zeigt die Notwendigkeit der Berücksichtigung saisonaler Aspekte für die Bemessung von Hochwassern. Aufgrund der Ergebnisse müssen die bisher genutzten stationären Verfahren als nicht mehr geeignet bewertet werden. Es wird daher die Nutzung instationärer Verfahren zur Abschätzung von Extremhochwasser und der damit verbundenen Bemessung von Schutzmaßnahmen empfohlen, um den teilweise vorliegenden Trends in den Daten Rechnung zu tragen. Durch diesen Ansatz ist es möglich, zeitlich dynamische Veränderungen im Hochwassergeschehen stärker zu berücksichtigen. Darüber hinaus sollten saisonale Aspekte des Einzugsgebietes Eingang in die Gefahrenabschätzung finden.