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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
401

Development of a data-driven distributed hydrological model for regional scale catchments prone to Mediterranean flash floods. Application to the Ardèche catchment, France / Développement d'un modèle hydrologique distribuée construit à partir de l'analyse des données pour la modélisation régionale des bassins Méditerranéens soumis aux crues rapides. Application au bassin versant de l’Ardèche. France

Adamovic, Marko 05 December 2014 (has links)
L'objectif scientifique de la thèse est de progresser dans la modélisation hydrologique spatiale régionale dans le contexte de crues éclairs qui représentent l'une des catastrophes naturelles les plus destructrices dans la région Méditerranéenne. L'accent est mis sur les questions de mise à l'échelle des bassins versants et la dérivation des équations et des modèles applicables aux bassins de milieu simplifiées de grande taille pour mieux décrire l'hétérogénéité du paysage et de la complexité du processus. Telles sont les questions clés pour faciliter le modèle mis en place dans le contexte de l'ensemble du bassin versant et d'essayer son application dans les bassins non jaugés trop. Pour répondre à ces questions, une modélisation hydrologique spatiale simplifiée sur les sous-bassins versants est d'abord proposé où les paramètres sont essentiellement tirées de l'information disponible (surtout cartographique). La méthode de Kirchner (WRR, 2009) qui suppose que le débit à la sortie est la seule fonction de stockage du bassin versant, est spécifiquement étudiée dans le cadre des bassins versants Méditerranéens. L'étape suivante consiste à créer un nouveau modèle hydrologique SIMPLEFLOOD distribué sur la base de « top down » méthodologie de Kirchner dans la plateforme de modélisation JAMS. Les paramètres du modèle simple sont estimés à des endroits calibrés et une régionalisation se fait en fonction de la géologie. Le bassin versant est discrétisé en sous-bassins versants d'environ 10 km2. La dernière étape consiste à procéder à un couplage de données avec le modèle hydraulique MAGE 1D développé à IRSTEA HHLY tenir compte des effets de propagation de la rivière sur les hydrogrammes simulés. Le couplage est externe, ce qui signifie que les sorties du modèle hydrologique dans le système de modélisation de JAMS deviennent les entrées du modèle MAGE hydraulique. Les sorties sont les débits qui sont transférés dans le modèle de MAGE soit comme flux latéraux (provenant des terres adjacentes) et /ou entrées d'eau locales. L'application de la thèse est le bassin versant de l'Ardèche (2388 km ²), qui est l'un des sites pilotes français pour le programme international HyMeX (cycle hydrologique dans l'expérience de la Méditerranée, http://www.hymex.org/). La thèse proposée contribue également au projet FloodScale (multi-échelle d'observation hydrométéorologique et de modélisation pour la compréhension et simulation des crues éclairs (http://floodscale.irstea.fr/). L'application de la méthodologie Kirchner (2009) montre que les résultats de simulation des débits sont bonnes pour les bassins de granit, trouvés à être caractérisée principalement par des processus excès de ruissellement et d'écoulement sous la surface de saturation. L'hypothèse simple de système dynamique fonctionne particulièrement bien dans des conditions humides (pics et les récessions sont bien modélisés). D'autre part, la performance du modèle est moins bien représentée à l'été et les périodes de sécheresse où l'évapotranspiration est large et observations de bas-débits sont inexactes. Dans le bassin versant de l'Ardèche, les précipitations simulées correspondent bien à de stations de jaugeage observés et données de réanalyse SAFRAN pendant les périodes de non-végétation. Le modèle doit encore être amélioré pour inclure une représentation plus précise de l'évapotranspiration réelle, mais fournit un résumé satisfaisant du fonctionnement du bassin versant pendant les périodes humides et d'hiver. Le couplage du modèle hydrologique obtenue avec le modèle hydraulique MAGE 1D fournit des résultats satisfaisants mais les résultats sont si réciproques comme dans le cas du modèle hydrologique ou une équation d'onde cinématique simple pour le routage des flux existe. On peut dire que dans les situations ou débordement de la rivière est significative, le couplage serai crucial. / The scientific objective of the thesis is to progress in regional spatial hydrological modeling in the context of flash floods that represent one of the most destructive natural hazards in the Mediterranean region. Emphasis is put on catchment scaling issues and derivation of simplified equations and models applicable to basins of medium to large size to best describe landscape heterogeneity and process complexity. These are the key issues in facilitating the model set up in the context of the whole catchment and trying its application in ungauged catchments too. To address these issues, a simplified spatial hydrological modeling over sub-catchments is first proposed where parameters are essentially derived from available information (cartographic utmost). For this purpose, the Kirchner (WRR, 2009) method that assumes that discharge at the outlet is only a function of catchment storage is specifically studied in the context of Mediterranean catchments. The next step is to create a new distributed hydrological model based on the data driven methodology of Kirchner within the JAMS modeling framework. The parameters of the simple model are estimated at the gauged locations and a regionalization is done according to geology. The catchment is discretized into sub-catchments of about 10 km2. The final step is to proceed with data coupling with the MAGE 1D hydraulic model developed at HHLY to consider river propagation effects on the simulated hydrographs. The coupling is external, meaning that outputs from the hydrological model in JAMS modeling system become inputs to the hydraulic model MAGE. Outputs are discharge rates in the reach network that are transferred into the MAGE model as either lateral flows (coming from adjacent land) and/or local inflows. The case study of the thesis is the Ardèche catchment (2388 km²), which is one of the French pilot sites for the HyMeX international program (Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment, http://www.hymex.org/). The proposed thesis also contributes to the FloodScale project (Multi-scale hydrometeorological observation and modeling for flash floods understanding and simulation, http://floodscale.irstea.fr/ ). The application of the Kirchner (2009) methodology shows that resulting discharge simulation results are good for granite catchments, found to be predominantly characterized by saturation excess runoff and sub-surface flow processes. The simple dynamical system hypothesis works especially well in wet conditions (peaks and recessions are well modeled). On the other hand, poor model performance is associated with summer and dry periods when evapotranspiration is high and operational low-flow discharge observations are inaccurate. In the Ardèche catchment, inferred precipitation rates agree well in timing and amount with observed gauging stations and SAFRAN data reanalysis during the non-vegetation periods. The model should further be improved to include a more accurate representation of actual evapotranspiration, but provides a satisfying summary of the catchment functioning during wet and winter periods. The coupling of the resulting hydrological model with the MAGE 1D hydraulic model provides satisfying results. However, the results show that the timing and magnitude of simulated discharge with coupled model is as good as by the hydrological model with a simple kinematic wave equation for flow routing. We argue that in situations when there is a significant overflow in the floodplain the interest of the coupling with the hydraulic model becomes crucial.
402

Efeitos do rompimento da Barragem de Camará na área urbana do Município de Alagoa Grande-PB.

Paiva Júnior, Hugo Barbosa de 27 September 2006 (has links)
Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-14T12:09:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 2620792 bytes, checksum: 4242ef5defb67f90d738c40b60a2e4df (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-09-27 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / In recent years an interminable succession of disasters has been witnessed, as floods, disruption of barrages, storms, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, forest droughts and fires. These disasters have an extremely high price in lives, provoke ambient damages, many irreparable times, and imply in the investment of billions of dollar for repairing of the reached areas. Had strong rains that had occurred in the state of the Paraíba in the year of 2004, it was breached barrage of Camará, constructed in the river Riachão, in the basin of the Mamamguape. The violence of waters did not respect obstacles and provoked a devastation in the agricultural zone of Alagoa Nova, Areia and Mulúngu and urban area of Alagoa Grande, causing deaths and leaving hundreds of homelesses. The work in question presents a carried through socioeconomic diagnosis in the areas of the city of Alagoa Grande affected by the disruption of the cited barrage. Also the questions of the risks and the disasters provoked for floods and floodings in urban zones and the recovery of reached areas are boarded. It had as objective main to supply to the competent agencies subsidies the hierarchion of the actions of continuity of programs of investments the recovery and reconstruction of the related city. The survey of a series of information was carried through after, producing a data set and understood the politics of urban reorganization. The results of the diagnosis point with respect to the vulnerability of the city of Alagoa Grande floods and floodings, exactly in events of lesser intensity, therefore good part of its urban zone is located in topographical quota decrease having been bordered by the river Mamanguape beyond presenting inhabited marginal areas. More visible the socioeconomic impacts had been to the alteration of the familiar income, the nervousness of the people (psychological traumas), the incidence of illnesses of hídrica propagation and the crisis in the local commerce. The processes of reconstruction, recovery and restoration of the city will have to last per some years being demonstrated the fragility and the recklessness of the involved agencies. / Nos últimos anos tem-se presenciado uma sucessão interminável de desastres, como enchentes, rompimento de barragens, tempestades, terremotos, deslizamentos, erupções vulcânicas, secas e incêndios florestais. Estes desastres têm um preço extremamente alto em vidas, provocam danos ambientais, muitas vezes irreparáveis, e implicam no investimento de bilhões de dólares para reparação das áreas atingidas. Devido as fortes chuvas que ocorreram no estado da Paraíba no ano de 2004, rompeu-se a barragem de Camará, construída no rio Riachão, na bacia do Mamanguape. A violência das águas não respeitou obstáculos e provocou uma devastação na zona rural de Alagoa Nova, Areia e Mulungú e na área urbana de Alagoa Grande, causando mortes e deixando centenas de desabrigados. O trabalho em questão apresenta um diagnóstico socioeconômico realizado nas áreas da cidade de Alagoa Grande afetadas pelo rompimento da barragem citada. Também são abordadas as questões dos riscos e dos desastres provocados por enchentes e inundações em zonas urbanas e a recuperação de áreas atingidas. Teve como objetivo principal fornecer aos órgãos competentes subsídios para a hierarquização das ações de continuidade dos programas de investimentos para a recuperação e reconstrução da referida cidade. Foi realizado após o levantamento de uma série de informações, produzindo um conjunto de dados e entendido as políticas de reestruturação urbana. Os resultados do diagnóstico apontam para a vulnerabilidade da cidade de Alagoa Grande a enchentes e inundações, mesmo em eventos de menor intensidade, pois boa parte da sua zona urbana está localizada em cota topográfica baixa sendo margeada pelo rio Mamanguape além de apresentar áreas ribeirinhas habitadas. Os impactos socioeconômicos mais visíveis foram a alteração da renda familiar, o nervosismo das pessoas (traumas psicológicos), a incidência de doenças de veiculação hídrica e a crise no comércio local. Os processos de reconstrução, recuperação e restauração da cidade deverão perdurar por vários anos demonstrando a fragilidade e a negligência dos órgãos envolvidos.
403

A água no espaço urbano : uma abordagem sócio-ambiental e sua aplicação à Grande Tijuca - RJ / Water in the urban space : a social and ambiental boarding and its aplication to Grande Tijuca - RJ

Fernanda de Oliveira Amante 28 September 2006 (has links)
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O presente estudo objetiva contribuir para a construção de uma metodologia que possa integrar as abordagens da presença e da circulação da água em ambientes urbanos, destacando o caso das enchentes, por meio da criação de um mapeamento que consiga espacializar em detalhe o fenômeno. Além disso, uma análise que permita uma visão integrada da água - sua circulação, armazenamento e interações sócio-ambientais, que se estabeleceram ao longo da história, relacionando-a às transformações urbanas oriundas também das intervenções governamentais. Essa perspectiva de análise foi inserida na área da Grande Tijuca Zona Norte do município do Rio de Janeiro (RJ) - densamente habitada, com histórico de utilização da água apresentando problemas desde o processo de ocupação inicial. Hoje, problemas relacionados ao abastecimento de água pela rede geral da cidade e ligados à circulação superficial das águas em épocas de chuvas intensas, ocasionando as freqüentes enchentes urbanas; assolam a população. O que se busca identificar é a intensidade das mudanças ocorridas no ambiente no que diz respeito aos problemas relacionados à água: o aumento na demanda por abastecimento da rede geral de água; o saneamento básico; ao aporte de efluente de esgoto sobre os canais de drenagem principais e sobre a rede geral de esgoto; além do escoamento superficial das águas pluviais, que ocasionam as enchentes. Foram utilizadas como metodologia: o levantamento histórico da evolução urbana e a presença da água nos bairros, assim como o levantamento das características físicas do ambiente, a análise de políticas públicas e como a circulação da água nos bairros da Grande Tijuca se integra no espaço. Para a presença e o uso dos recursos hídricos, recorreram-se aos dados censitários do IBGE, visando uma análise evolutiva de 1991 a 2000, que resultaram em mapeamentos. Além disso, foi realizada uma inédita Carta de Enchentes de 2006, que espacializa o fenômeno em uma escala de 1:8000 e que permite uma análise rica em detalhes, como a extensão e a variabilidade do nível das enchentes na Grande Tijuca, rua a rua pelos bairros. As muitas enchentes urbanas na Grande Tijuca seriam a resposta do ambiente às transformações que se deram ao longo do tempo. Com a diminuição da qualidade de vida, a Grande Tijuca - e a cidade do Rio de Janeiro como um todo - vai ser alvo de políticas visando o controle desse processo atuante. No entanto, essas não parecem vislumbrar a totalidade do sistema, e se apresentam como obras desconexas e pontuais, uma vez que não foram observados o controle e eliminação das enchentes. O exemplo da Grande Tijuca, evidencia a necessidade de uma visão mais abrangente do planejamento e gestão não só dos recursos hídricos, mas do espaço urbano como um todo, inserida em uma gestão que leve a um real desenvolvimento local integrado / This research objects to contribute in the construction of a methodology that can integrate the boarding of the presence and the circulation of the water in urban environments, detaching the case of floods, with the creation of a mapping that obtains to specialize in detail the phenomenon. Besides, it aims to realize an analysis that allows to an integrated vision of the water - its circulation, storage, and its social-environmental interactions, that were established through the history, relating it to the urban transformations which were derived also by the governmental interventions. This perspective of analysis was inserted in the area of the Grande Tijuca - North Zone of the city of Rio de Janeiro - densely inhabited, with description of waters use shows problems since the initial occupation process. Nowadays, the problems related to the water supply by the general net of the city and the ones related on to the superficial circulation of waters at times of intense rains (that causes frequent urban floods) devastate the population. This work searches to identify the intensity of the changes that happened in the environment concerning to the problems related to the water: the increase in the demand for supplying of the general water net; the basic sanitation; the inputs of sewage effluent on the main canals of draining and the general net of sewer; beyond the superficial draining of the pluvial waters, which causes the floods. It was used as methodology: a historical review of the urban evolution and the presence of the water in the quarters, as well as the review of the physical characteristics of the environment, the analysis of public politics and as the way that the circulation of the water in the quarters of the Grande Tijuca integrates in the space. In order to study the presence and the use of the water resources it was used the census data of the IBGE, aiming at an evolutionary analysis from1991 to 2000 that they had resulted in mappings. Moreover, an unpublished Floods Chart of 2006 was realized, which specializes the phenomenon in a 1:8000 scale and allows a rich analysis in details, as the extension and the variability of the level of floods on the street by street of the quarters. The many urban floods in the Grande Tijuca would be the reply of the environment to the transformations that occurs for long time. With the reduction of the quality of life, the Grande Tijuca - and the city of Rio de Janeiro as a whole will be white of politics aiming at the control of this operating process. However, these do not seem to glimpse the totality of the system, and they present themselves as disconnected and pointed repairs, because they dont object the control and elimination of the floods. The example of the Tijuca, not only evidences the necessity of a more including vision of the planning and management of the water resources, as well as the urban space as a whole, inserted in a management that has led to a real integrated local development.
404

Charakteristika území ve vztahu k možnostem vzniku a způsob řešení mimořádných událostí a krizových situací. / Characteristics of the territory in relation to the possibilities of occurrence of extraordinary events and crisis situations and the way to solve them.

MRZENA, Pavel January 2010 (has links)
The goal of my thesis was to provide a basic and comprehensive picture of the territory of the town of Tábor, and to describe how the characteristics influence the possibility of occurrence of extraordinary events and crisis situations, including the follow-up ways to solve these situations. Another goal of my thesis was to present a picture of the possibilities of occurrence of selected and particular extraordinary events and crisis situations, including the identification of the readiness level of the crisis management authorities of the town of Tábor for these events. In the final part there are findings and information based on which we can state that the hypotheses were confirmed. Based on the characteristics of the town of Tábor, which influence the occurrence of unfavourable events and their solutions, the level of readiness of the town for these events is considered to be good, and currently additional new measures are taken to stabilise and improve this readiness.
405

Ochrana obyvatelstva a území pod vodním dílem. / Protection of inhabitants and areas located below waterworks

FORMÁNEK, Karel January 2010 (has links)
The Czech Republic has a very dense network of waterways and a lot of lakes and small ponds. Floods belong to the most frequent natural disasters in the CR. Small water reservoirs in the flood protection system are of great importance. The retention capacity of those water reservoirs and feasibility to control water outflow are used. The aim of this study is to determine the state of preparedness to manage consequences of a possible failure and an accident on one of such water-works of category II, the pond Hvězda. Vulnerability of the area is assessed in terms of preparedness of state and local government authorities responsible for special flood consequences management. Meeting this objective is possible through compliance with the methodological procedure. The procedure implies studying legislation and normatives applied to the area, flood protection, population protection and crisis management. And it also involves evaluation of responsible institutions and the status of their documents concerning planning, and making comparisons with legislation requirements. Another objective is a proposal of my own solutions to the identified failures management. This is a project of planning documents completion, to be specific, a plan for the area below the water-works protection. The plan is a general conception and allows itself to be used for any water-work. The thesis also includes a brief elaboration of educational material in the form of a presentation, designed for involved authorities that are supposed to compile the plan, or to participate in its compilation. The objective, content and the method of the plan preparation are outlined. It is useful to inform the entities involved in the special flood management such as the Fire Prevention Unit, the Integrated Rescue System components about this issue. This thesis offers a solution to a specific problem, which is protection of inhabitants and areas located below water-works against a special flood impact. It also suggests the future view of an area vulnerability assessment, which consists in a comprehensive hazard mapping and its evaluation according to a unified methodology in the CR territory and assuring its compatibility within the EU.
406

Prévision d'ensemble des crues rapides méditerranéennes / Ensemble forecasting of Mediterranean flash-floods

Edouard, Simon 09 December 2016 (has links)
Les régions méditerranéennes sont particulièrement soumises au risque de crues rapides. Ces crues sont provoquées par des pluies intenses pouvant être stationnaires et qui affectent des bassins versants à la topographie marquée et aux temps de réponses courts. Ces crues peuvent être très violentes, dévastatrices voire meurtrières. Il est donc important de disposer de systèmes de prévision adaptés pour l'anticipation des pluies et des débits des cours d'eau méditerranéens. Le système couplé ISBA-TOP a été particulièrement conçu pour simuler la réponse hydrologique de bassins versants à dynamique rapide. Il s'agit d'un couplage entre le modèle de surface ISBA et une version du modèle hydrologique TOPMODEL adaptée aux crues rapides. Une première étape du travail de thèse a été d'évaluer l'apport d'une meilleure représentation des processus hydrologiques dans le sol pour la simulation des débits avec ISBA-TOP. Une version d'ISBA-TOP basée sur la version diffusive d'ISBA (ISBA-DF qui découpe verticalement les colonnes de sol en de multiples couches) a donc été comparée à la version originale d'ISBA-TOP qui utilisait l'approche ISBA-3L où 3 couches de sol sont représentées. Sur un échantillon d'une vingtaine de cas d'étude, on montre une légère amélioration des simulations de débits avec la nouvelle version d'ISBA-TOP. Cette nouvelle version permet de s'affranchir du calage de deux paramètres gérant la répartition verticale de l'eau dans les colonnes de sol qu'il était nécessaire de réaliser pour chacun des bassins étudiés. La simulation de petits bassins versants non jaugés, pour lesquels on ne dispose pas d'observations pour réaliser le calage des paramètres, peut donc être envisagée. Il n'en reste pas moins que la modélisation hydrologique avec ISBA-TOP (comme avec tout autre modèle) reste entachée d'incertitude. La seconde partie de cette thèse vise à identifier ces incertitudes et à les quantifier. Dans le cas des crues rapides, les données de précipitation utilisées en entrée du modèle hydrologique constituent la source majeure d'incertitude mais elle n'est pas la seule. La connaissance des conditions initiales d'humidité des sols est également incertaine et le modèle hydrologique, lui-même, est entaché d'incertitude de par la `` paramétrisation '' des processus physiques et de par sa structure. Afin d'explorer ces deux sources d'incertitude et de les hiérarchiser, une étude de sensibilité du modèle ISBA-TOP à ses paramètres et à ses conditions initiales d'humidité des sols a été menée. Cette étude de sensibilité a d'abord été conduite pour un cas idéalisé, d'interprétation plus facile, avant de confirmer et d'approfondir les résultats sur des cas réels. Les simulations de débit avec ISBA-TOP se sont avérées particulièrement sensibles à trois des paramètres hydrodynamiques : le contenu en eau à saturation, la conductivité hydraulique à saturation et le taux de décroissance de la transmissivité avec la profondeur. Cette sensibilité, toutefois, est très dépendante des conditions initiales d'humidité des sols. Sur la base des résultats de l'étude de sensibilité, une méthode de perturbation des paramètres du modèle hydrologique a été conçue afin de tenir compte des erreurs de modélisation. Elle est complétée par une méthode de perturbations des conditions initiales en humidité des sols afin de constituer un système de simulation hydrologique d'ensemble. Evalué sur six cas réels, il a été montré que cet ensemble a un apport pour la simulation des débits par rapport à la version déterministe du modèle. / Intense precipitation events in the Mediterranean often lead to devastating flash floods. The affected watersheds are characterized by steep slopes and a short response time. Flash floods can be violent and destructive. Dedicated meteorological and hydrological systems are thus necessary to anticipate those flash floods. The ISBA -TOP coupled system was developed to simulate the hydrological reaction of fast responding rivers. It is a coupling between the ISBA surface scheme and a version of the TOPMODEL hydrological model dedicated to mediterranean flash floods simulation. A first part of the thesis aims at assessing the benefit of a better representation of hydrological processes within the soil for discharge simulation with ISBA-TOP. Moreover, it would allow the use of ISBA-TOP for any watershed even ungauged. A version of ISBA-TOP based on ISBA-DF (the diffusive version of ISBA that discretizes soil columns in multiple layers) has been compared to the original ISBA-TOP that relies on ISBA-3L (with only 3 soil layers). On 18 study cases, better discharge simulations are obtained basically using the new ISBA-TOP version. So this improved representation of hydrological processes in the soil allows to improve discharge simulations and to be confident into the results obtained for small ungauged catchments. The second part of this PhD work concerns the uncertainty that affects ISBA-TOP simulations. For flash floods, rainfall data used to drive an hydrological model are the major source of uncertainty. But initial soil moisture knowledge is also uncertain and the hydrological model himself is affected by uncertainty. The sensitivity of ISBA-TOP model to its parameters and initial soil moisture is investigated to document those two sources of uncertainty. First an academic case is used to verify some preliminary hypotheses and then real cases are studied to properly consider the different data heterogeneities. Discharge simulations with ISBA-TOP are sensitive to three hydro dynamical parameters : the saturated soil water content, the saturated hydraulic conductivity and the rate of decrease of the transmissivity with depth. This sensitivity is found very dependant on initial soil moisture conditions. Perturbation methods varying the 3 parameters that have the highest impact on discharge simulations as well as initial soil moisture allow to design an ensemble prediction system. This ensemble has been assessed for 6 real cases. Using this ensemble-based approach for discharge simulation lead to better results than using the deterministic version. The skill of the ensemble with 30 to 50 members is close to the skill of this ensemble with 100 members whereas it outerperfoms an ensemble with 10 members. The last part of the thesis is the conception of a complete hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system (HEPS). The hydrological ensemble defined in the second part of the thesis is used to take the uncertainty that affects the hydrological modelling and initials soil moisture into account. The uncertainty that affects precipitation fields is sampled using the AROME ensemble prediction system (AROME-EPS). The skill of this complete chain is better than an HEPS based on AROME-EPS and the deterministic version of ISBA-TOP. But both HEPS exhibit a low bias for discharge simulation on the study cases sample. This bias can come from a low bias that is found for the AROME-EPS rainfall forecasts. A simple bias correction applied on rainfall forecasts improves the bias on discharge forecasts.
407

Inundações em Campinas (SP) entre 1958 e 2007 = tendências sócioespaciais e as ações do poder público / Floods in Campinas (SP) between 1958 and 2007 : socio-spatial trends and actions of the governament

Castellano, Marina Sória, 1984- 17 August 2018 (has links)
Orientador: Lucí Hidalgo Nunes / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Geociências / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-17T09:45:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Castellano_MarinaSoria_M.pdf: 4550077 bytes, checksum: f0be7cc7ab35dc3a5dd1ff60bfd85e2e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010 / Resumo: Totalizando um terço de todos os desastres naturais mundiais (SMITH, 2004), as inundações são eventos naturais, podendo ter suas consequências agravadas por ações antrópicas, como a urbanização, falta de planejamento urbano e ocupações de áreas de risco. Essa é a realidade de grande parte dos centros urbanos do Brasil, onde se inclui a cidade de Campinas (SP). A pesquisa teve como objetivo analisar, para esse município, os impactos relacionados às chuvas extremas entre 1958 e 2007, avaliando o padrão sócioespacial nas suas distribuições. Foram utilizados quatro postos pluviométricos para o levantamento dos episódios extremos, identificados de acordo com a técnica dos quantis. A partir da delimitação desses dias, os impactos associados às chuvas foram levantados nos jornais Correio Popular, Diário do Povo (jornais locais), O Estado de São Paulo, Folha de São Paulo e na Defesa Civil do município. As informações foram analisadas de acordo com 5 décadas e percebeu-se um aumento considerável na quantidade de impactos registrados: foram 129 na primeira década e 3837 na última. A análise dos dados também permitiu perceber que os bairros de baixa e média renda são maioria em grande parte dos registros. Dos 34 tipos de impactos registrados, 16 ocorreram com mais frequência em áreas de baixa renda (destacando-se os casos de alagamento e risco de desabamento de imóveis, desabrigados e mortos), 15 em áreas de renda média (destacando-se alagamento de vias e desabamento total ou parcial de imóveis) e 2 em áreas de alta renda (atraso em obras e danos em imóveis). Assim, percebe-se que os fenômenos extremos afetam mais rotineiramente e de maneira mais dramática os grupos sociais menos favorecidos. Porém, bairros de todos os extratos sociais foram afetados, mostrando que praticamente toda a população está exposta a risco, ainda que de diferentes magnitudes, o que se coloca como um aspecto relevante para o poder público. A pesquisa também contou com a análise dos Planos Diretores e de Gestão Urbana de Campinas, assim como programas executados pela Prefeitura que visam a diminuição das inundações no município. Nota-se que grande parte dos pontos abordados nesses documentos oficiais como áreas críticas de inundação eram compatíveis com os locais levantados em jornais e na Defesa Civil. As questões climáticas não foram abordadas nos planos de maneira direta: apenas há a ideia implícita da ocorrência de chuvas (não havendo menção às suas intensidades), quando há a referência às inundações. Os assuntos relacionados às inundações e que aparecem com frequência nos planos analisados são: áreas verdes, impermeabilização do solo, ocupação de áreas de risco, remoção e reassentamento de famílias e política habitacional / Abstract: Floods are natural events but they correspond to a third of all natural disasters worldwide (Smith, 2004) and their consequences can be aggravated by human activities, such as urbanization, lack of urban planning and occupation of risk areas. These facts occur on most urban centers in Brazil, including the city of Campinas (SP). The research aimed to analyze the impacts of extreme precipitation events between 1958 and 2007 for Campinas and to estimate the socio-spatial pattern of their distributions. Data of four rain gauges were used for the analysis of extreme events identified according to the quantis technique. The impacts associated with the rains were reported in the newspaper Correio Popular, Diário do Povo (local newspapers), O Estado de São Paulo as well the Civil Defense. Analyses were performed for five decades and showed a considerable increase in the number of impacts recorded: 129 in the first decade and 3,837 in the last. The data analysis also allowed to realize that the areas of low and medium income are the majority in most of the records. Of the total impacts, 16 occurred more frequently in low-income areas (with emphasis on cases of flooding and risk of collapse of buildings, homeless and dead), 15 in middle income areas (in particular, flooding of roads and total or partial collapse of buildings) and 2 in high-income (under construction delays and damage to properties). Thus, it was noticed that the extreme phenomena affect more routinely and dramatically low income social groupings. However, the neighborhoods of all social classes were affected, showing that the entire population is exposed to risk, although in different magnitudes, which is a relevant aspect for the government. The research also included the analysis of Master Plans of Campinas, as well as executed programs by the local government to reduce flooding in the city. It was noticed that most of the places presented as critical areas to flooding in the official documents were compatible with the areas that really presented problems, according to the survey in local newspapers and on Civil Defense. Climate issues were not reported in the plans in a direct way: there is only the implicit idea of the rainfall occurrence (there was no mention of their intensities) when there is a reference to flooding. The issues related to flooding that appear with frequency in the plans analyzed are: green areas, soil impermeabilization, risk areas occupation, transference of families and resettlement and housing policy / Mestrado / Análise Ambiental e Dinâmica Territorial / Mestre em Geografia
408

Caracterização química inorgânica de perfis de sedimento do Pantanal da Nhecolândia - MS, datados pelo método do 210Pb / Inorganic chemical characterization of sediment cores from Pantanal da Nhecolândia MS, dated by the 210Pb method

SANTOS, LEVI F. DOS 10 March 2017 (has links)
Submitted by Maria Eneide de Souza Araujo (mearaujo@ipen.br) on 2017-03-10T16:25:16Z No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-10T16:25:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / O Pantanal da Nhecolândia, localizado no estado do Mato Grosso do Sul, é parte do Pantanal Brasileiro e possui características específicas, dentre elas a existência de lagos salinos, comumente conhecidos como Salinas. Para se estimar uma possível influência humana no Pantanal da Nhecolândia quatro perfis de sedimento foram coletados, em 2010, nas Salinas A, 6, M e V com o objetivo de se fazer a caracterização química inorgânica dos sedimentos determinando os elementos As, Ba, Ca, Ce, Co, Cr, Cs, Eu, Fe, Hf, K, La, Lu, Na, Nd, Rb, Sb, Sc, Sm, Ta, Tb, Th, U, Yb e Zn pela técnica de análise por ativação com nêutrons instrumental nas frações fina (silte + argila) e grossa (areia média + areia fina) do sedimento e também determinar as taxas de sedimentação e idade do sedimento pelo método do 210Pb. Para auxiliar na interpretação dos resultados determinou-se a composição granulométrica e o conteúdo de água das amostras de sedimento. A análise granulométrica indicou que as Salinas possuem um percentual da fração fina oscilando entre 3,5 % na Salina M a 70 % na Salina A, o que é característico dessa região. Os quatro perfis de sedimento apresentaram diferentes taxas de sedimentação, o que está provavelmente relacionado aos períodos de seca e enchentes. Os resultados obtidos de concentração dos elementos químicos foram comparados com os valores da Upper Continental Crust UCC e da North American Shale Composite NASC, e alguns elementos, como As, Hf, Rb e Sb, apresentaram valores acima destes nas duas frações granulométricas do sedimento, sugereindo à existência de depósitos naturais destes elementos nas quatro Salinas estudadas. Os resultados de concentração dos elementos estudados indicam a não existência de influência antrópica na região. Calculou-se também o fator de enriquecimento - FE dos elementos químicos usando como valores de referência os valores da UCC, NASC, e os valores da base do perfil-FEB, concluindo-se que o FEB foi a melhor metodologia para se avaliar o enriquecimento dos elementos. / Dissertação (Mestrado em Tecnologia Nuclear) / IPEN/D / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP
409

A persistência das inundações na Grande São Paulo / The Persistence of Floodings in the Greater São Paulo

Vanderli Custódio 12 April 2002 (has links)
As inundações na Grande São Paulo e as soluções para elas são tão antigas quanto o núcleo urbano. No entanto, constata-se a seguinte contradição: quanto mais intervenções são realizadas, mais o problema persiste e se amplia. O presente trabalho busca fazer uma leitura tanto do problema quanto das soluções. Utiliza-se o conceito \"situação de desastre\", por ressaltar as dimensões natural e social do problema. Discute-se o que seria uma solução e o aspecto técnico das soluções estruturais (obras) e não-estruturais (institucionais, administrativas, financeiras, leis etc.), sua implantação nas fases de pré, durante e pós-impacto, considerando-se, também, os sujeitos sociais envolvidos. Destaca-se o predomínio da implantação de obras, elaboradas com ênfase na dimensão natural do problema e com equívocos, por negligenciarem o meio físico-natural existente em nome da importação de parâmetros técnicos externos, dominantes e tidos como modernos. Desse modo, a dimensão técnica não atinge a complexidade do meio ambiente urbano, resultando, no extremo, na proliferação de vulnerabilidades socioambientais. Além disso, as abordagens não têm considerado que qualquer solução para o problema é uma solução no espaço urbano-metropolitano, cuja dimensão social não pode ser negligenciada; a atuação deve ser não somente sobre a forma metrópole, mas também sobre o processo social urbano - o que remete à dimensão política, ao perfil das políticas públicas que dela se origina e à necessidade de acordos entre os sujeitos sociais urbanos. Apesar dos avanços no discurso e no corpo das leis - que passam a postular a incorporação da questão ambiental e mostram a crescente percepção da importância das soluções não-estruturais, como o disciplinamento do uso e ocupação do solo urbano, para a redução das \"situações de desastre\" do tipo inundação na Grande São Paulo, as soluções continuam aquém das necessidades. As perspectivas são de persistência do problema, com melhorias das formas de convivência com ele. / Floodings in São Paulo and solutions for them are as old as the central urban nucleus. Nevertheless, the following contradiction can be observed: the more interventions, the bigger and more persistent the problems. The present work attempts to carry out an examination of flooding problems and solutions. It uses the concept of \"disaster situation\", which emphasizes both the natural and the social dimension of the problem. Besides, it discusses possible solutions, technical aspects of structural (water works) and non-structural solutions (institutional, administrative, financial, juridical, etc.), and their implementation on pre, during and post- impacts; It also considers the social subjects involved. Prevalent solutions through waterworks put emphasis mainly on the natural dimension of the problem and are ridden by misunderstandings: disregarding the existing physical-natural environment, they prefer imported taken-as-modern technical parameters. The technical dimension alone does not attend to the complexity of the urban environment resulting and, at the limit, I the increase of socio-environmental vulnerabilities. Moreover, that approach ignores the notion that any solution to the problem is a solution in the urban-metropolitan space, whose social dimension cannot be neglected. Therefore, interventions only on the \'city form\' are insufficient. They should also be applicable to the urban social process - what leads to the political dimension, the profile of the public policies that rises from the former, and the necessity of agreement among urban social citizens. Despite advances in speeches and in legislation, which have started to include environmental issues and shown an increasing awareness of the importance of non-structural solutions as a primordial step for lessening \"disaster situations\", of the flood type in the Greater São Paulo, such as the regulation of urban land use and occupation, propositions are deficient, as yet The problem tends to persist, with some improvement in the management of troubles caused by floods.
410

A grande enchente de São Luiz do Paraitinga - 2010 / The Major Flood of the São Luiz do Paraitinga 2010 -

Natalia dos Santos Moradei 14 June 2016 (has links)
Em 1º de janeiro de 2010 uma grande enchente atingiu o município de São Luiz do Paraitinga/SP, causando enorme destruição, principalmente, ao seu patrimônio histórico. Após o desastre, a cidade viveu um intenso processo de Reconstrução. A pesquisa visa entender e registrar o episódio sob a ótica de quem o vivenciou, e procura relacioná-lo com o processo de expansão de ocupação urbana. Além disso, tem o intuito de apresentar as ações de recuperação e discutir os processos durante esse trabalho. Para tanto, traça um panorama de São Luiz do Paraitinga a partir de suas condições físicas e da bacia hidrográfica do Paraitinga, na qual se insere, relacionando suas peculiaridades e as transformações ambientais. Aborda a questão socioeconômica do município, contextualizando sua importância histórica com destaque aos aspectos culturais e, ao patrimônio arquitetônico, herança do período cafeeiro, que deram a São Luiz do Paraitinga, o título de patrimônio estadual e nacional. Através da análise da expansão urbana, partindo de bibliografia, pesquisa em campo, comparação de imagens antigas e atuais apresenta a condição da cidade e seus conflitos ambientais urbanos até o momento anterior à enchente. Então, relata o evento da grande cheia ocorrida no dia 1º de janeiro de 2010 com o início do transbordamento do Rio Paraitinga, até o ápice da inundação no dia 2 de janeiro, deixando o centro da cidade submerso e provocando o arruinamento de vários imóveis. Na sequência são elencados os danos causados e a situação caótica após a vazão das águas. Distingue-se o período denominado de Reconstrução em dois momentos, o primeiro versa sobre as ações emergenciais e o segundo trata as ações de planejamento. Considerando a importância do patrimônio arquitetônico luizense, os danos sofridos e a forte intervenção para sua recuperação, abordam-se as novas diretrizes estabelecidas, bem como, os projetos de reconstrução a partir de quatro imóveis representativos. Por fim, o trabalho retoma as principais considerações feitas ao longo do trabalho e expõe algumas possibilidades para o futuro da cidade, entre elas: a necessidade de compreensão da bacia hidrográfica e de ações a nível regional para resolver as cheias do Paraitinga; a reconciliação da cidade com esse rio; a responsabilidade na prevenção e fiscalização para que novas ocupações não interfiram na dinâmica dos rios. Lembrando que a irresponsabilidade, omissão do Poder Público e interesses particulares propiciaram a criação de áreas de risco e vulneráveis a enchentes. Quanto à questão patrimonial, mostra-se imprescindível a implantação de programas de educação patrimonial, a recomposição do conjunto histórico e o tratamento das feridas deixadas pelas obras de contenção que ainda impactam na paisagem urbana. Reafirma-se, que a enchente, foi um divisor de águas para o município e apesar de ter sido uma catástrofe também trouxe oportunidades. São Luiz encontrou na coragem da comunidade e no trabalho coletivo um meio de avançar e sair da crise. Mas o desafio ainda está posto, e há muito por ser feito, lição deixada pela grande enchente de 2010 e que não deve ser esquecida. / On January 1st, 2010, a major flood hit the city of São Luiz do Paraitinga/SP, causing great destruction, mainly to its historical heritage. After the disaster, the city experienced an intense process of Reconstruction. The research aims to understand and record the episode under the perspective of those who lived it, and seeks to relate it to the process of expansion of urban occupation. Moreover, it intends to present the recovery actions and discuss the process during this work. To this end, it draws an overview of São Luiz do Paraitinga from its physical conditions and the hydrographic basin of Paraitinga, relating the peculiarities of it and its environmental transformations. It addresses the social and economic issues of the city, contextualizing its historical significance highlighting the cultural aspects and the architectural patrimony, heritage of the coffee period, which gave São Luiz do Paraitinga the title of State and National Patrimony. Through the analysis of urban expansion, starting from the literature, field research, comparison of past and present images, the condition of the city and its urban environmental conflicts until the moment right before the flood presents itself. Then, it reports the big flood that occurred on January 1st, 2010, with the beginning of Paraitinga Rivers overflow until the flood peak on January 2nd, leaving the city center submerged and causing collapse of several properties. Following, there are listed the damage and chaotic situation after the water flow. The time known as Reconstruction is distinguished in two moments: the first one deals with the emergencial actions, and the second one with planning actions. Considering the importance of local architectural patrimony, the damage done and the strong intervention for its recovery, new established guidelines are approached, as well as the reconstruction projects starting from four representative properties. At last, the paper refers to the main considerations made throughout the work and exposes some possibilities to the future of the city, including: the necessity of understanding the hydrographic basin and the action, on a regional level, to solve Paraitinga Rivers spate; the reconciliation of the city with the river; the responsibility of preventing and monitoring to avoid that new occupations interfere in the dynamic of the rivers. Remembering that the irresponsibility government, omission and private interests enabled the occurance of risk areas vulnerable to floods. As for the patrimonial issue, it appears to be indispensable the implementation of education programs regarding the patrimony, the restoration of historic site and the treatment of the wounds left by the containment works that yet cause impact on the urban landscape. It is essential to reassert that the flood was a turning point to the city and even though it was a catastrophe, also brought opportunities. São Luiz found in the courage of its community and the collective work a way to move forward and overcome the crisis. But the challenge is still set, and there is still a lot to be done, lesson left by the great flood of 2010 that shall not be forgotten.

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