Floods and droughts are frequent in Central America and cause large social, economic and environmental impacts. A crucial step in disaster risk reduction is to have a good understanding of the causing mechanisms of extreme events and their spatio-temporal characteristics. For this, a key aspect is access to a dense network of long and good-quality hydro-meteorological data. Unfortunately, such ideal data are sparse or non-existent in Central America. In addition, the existing methods for hydro-climatic studies need to be revised and/or improved to find the most suitable for the region’s climate, geography and hydro-climatic data situation. This work has the ultimate goal to support the reduction of risks associated with hydro-climatic-induced disasters in Central America. This was sought by developing ways to reduce data-related uncertainties and by improving the available methods to study and understand hydro-climatic variability processes. In terms of data-uncertainty reduction, this thesis includes the development of a high resolution air temperature dataset and a methodology to reduce uncertainties in a hydrological model at ungauged basins. The dataset was able to capture the spatial patterns with a detail not available with existing datasets. The methodology significantly reduced uncertainties in an assumed-to-be ungauged catchment. In terms of methodological improvements, this thesis includes an assessment of the most suitable combination of (available) meteorological datasets and drought indices to characterise droughts in Central America. In addition, a methodology was developed to analyse drought propagation in a tropical catchment, in an automated, objective way. Results from the assessment and the drought propagation analysis contributed with improving the understanding of drought patterns and generating processes in the region. Finally, a methodology was proposed for assessing changes in both hydrological extremes in a consistent way. This contrasts with most commonly used frameworks that study each extreme individually. The method provides important characteristics (frequency, duration and magnitude), information that can be useful for decisions within risk reduction and water management. The results presented in this thesis are a contribution, in terms of hydro-climatic data and assessment methods, for supporting risk reduction of disasters related with hydro-climatic extremes in Central America. / Översvämningar och torka inträffar ofta i Mellanamerika och orsakar stora skador på samhälle, ekonomi och miljö. En kritisk del av riskreduceringen är förståelsen av mekanismerna bakom extremhändelserna, och deras rumsliga och tidskarakteristik. En nyckelfaktor är tillgång till långa tidsserier av rumsligt täckande hydrometeorologiska data av bra kvalitet. I Mellanamerika är sådana ideala data tyvärr sällsynta eller saknas helt. Dessutom behöver befintliga metoder för hydro-klimatisk analys revideras och/eller förbättras för att identifiera de mest lämpade metoderna för regionens klimat, geografi och situationen vad gäller hydrologiska och meteorologiska data. Det övergripande syftet med denna avhandling har varit att stödja arbetet med riskreducering i Mellanamerika vid hydrologiska extremhändelser som sätts igång av extrema väderhändelser. För att bidra till detta utvecklades metoder för att minska datarelaterade osäkerheter och för att förbättra tillgängliga metoder för att studera och förstå de processer som ligger bakom variabiliteten i hydrologi och klimat. Dataosäkerheten minskades genom utveckling av ett nytt dataset för lufttemperatur med hög rumslig upplösning och en metodik för att begränsa osäkerheten i modellberäknad vattenföring i ett område där det saknas observationer. Det nya datasetet kunde fånga rumsliga mönster på en detaljnivå som hittills inte varit möjlig. Metodiken möjliggjorde en klar minskning i osäkerheten hos vattenföringen i ett avrinningsområde som behandlades som om det saknade data. Avhandlingen innehåller också en metodik för att fastlägga den mest lämpade kombinationen av tillgängliga klimatdataset och torkindex för att karakterisera torka i Mellanamerika. Därutöver utvecklades en metod för att studera torkans fortplantning i ett tropiskt avrinningsområde på ett objektivt och automatiserat sätt. Slutligen föreslås en metod för att hantera förändringar av både översvämning och torka på ett konsistent sätt  som förenklar användningen av resultaten  för en beslutsfattare. Dessa metoder bedömdes användbara för att förbättra karakteriseringen och förståelsen av extrema hydrologiska händelser i Mellanamerika. Resultaten i denna avhandling ger bidrag till förståelsen av hydrologiska och klimatextremer genom förbättrade data och analysmetoder som i förlängningen kommer att stödja riskreduceringsarbetet i Mellanamerika. / Las sequías e inundaciones son frecuentes en Centroamérica y causan grandes problemas sociales, económicos y ambientales. Un aspecto crucial en la reducción del riesgo consiste en entender los mecanismos que causan dichos eventos, y sus características espacio-temporales. Para lograr esto es necesario tener acceso a una red de datos hidro-meterológicos densa, con series largas, y de buena calidad. Desafortunadamente, este no es el caso en Centroamérica. Además, los métodos para hacer estudios hidro-climáticos requieren ser evaluados y/o mejorados para asegurar su aplicabilidad en la región (su clima, su geografía y los datos disponibles). Este trabajo tiene como meta apoyar la reducción del riesgo de desastres asociados a eventos hidro-meteorológicos extremos en Centroamérica. Esto se consigue a partir de la reducción de incertidumbres asociadas a los datos, y de la mejora de métodos para el estudio de la variabilidad hidro-climática. Para reducir la incertidumbre de los datos, este trabajo incluye el desarrollo de una base de datos de temperatura de alta resolución y el desarrollo de una metodología para reducir las incertidumbres en datos simulados de caudal. Con la nueva base de datos se logra reconocer patrones espaciales a un nivel de detalle no antes captado por otras bases de datos. Por otro lado, la metodología redujo significativamente las incertidumbres de los datos simulados de caudal. En cuanto a métodos, esta tesis incluye una evaluación para encontrar la mejor combinación de índices de sequía y base de datos para la caracterización de sequías en la región. Además, se desarrolló una metodología para analizar la propagación de la sequía en una cuenca tropical, de una manera objetiva y automatizada. Los resultados de estos dos pasos ayudaron a mejorar la comprensión de los patrones y los mecanismos de generación de las sequías. Finalmente, se incluyó un método para evaluar los cambios en los patrones de sequías e inundaciones de una manera consistente, y no de manera individual como usualmente se ha hecho. Así fue posible obtener la frecuencia, duración y magnitud en ambos extremos hidrológicos. Esta información podría constituir una herramienta  útil para el manejo del riesgo y del recurso hídrico.

This dissertation examines the quality of hazard mitigation elements in a coastal, hazard prone state. I answer two questions. First, in a state with a strong mandate for hazard mitigation elements in comprehensive plans, does plan quality differ among county governments? Second, if such variation exists, what drives this variation? My research focuses primarily on Florida’s 35 coastal counties, which are all at risk for hurricane and flood hazards, and all fall under Florida’s mandate to have a comprehensive plan that includes a hazard mitigation element. Research methods included document review to rate the hazard mitigation elements of all 35 coastal county plans and subsequent analysis against demographic and hazard history factors. Following this, I conducted an electronic, nationwide survey of planning professionals and academics, informed by interviews of planning leaders in Florida counties. I found that hazard mitigation element quality varied widely among the 35 Florida coastal counties, but were close to a normal distribution. No plans were of exceptionally high quality. Overall, historical hazard effects did not correlate with hazard mitigation element quality, but some demographic variables that are associated with urban populations did. The variance in hazard mitigation element quality indicates that while state law may mandate, and even prescribe, hazard mitigation in local comprehensive plans, not all plans will result in equal, or even adequate, protection for people. Furthermore, the mixed correlations with demographic variables representing social and disaster vulnerability shows that, at least at the county level, vulnerability to hazards does not have a strong effect on hazard mitigation element quality. From a theory perspective, my research is significant because it compares assumptions about vulnerability based on hazard history and demographics to plan quality. The only vulnerability-related variables that appeared to correlate, and at that mildly so, with hazard mitigation element quality, were those typically representing more urban areas. In terms of the theory of Neo-Institutionalism and theories related to learning organizations, my research shows that planning departments appear to have set norms and rules of operating that preclude both significant public involvement and learning from prior hazard events.

Rationale – Climate disasters represent a significant and growing proportion of the humanitarian burden and are a key factor in increasing poverty and insecurity. A myriad of studies demonstrate that aid delivered in an ex-ante fashion can be effective in mitigating losses of life, assets and livelihoods associated with climate hazards. This inquiry supplements the nascent body of research and empirical evidence base pertaining to the building of anticipatory capacity into large-scale national systems, namely via linking a Forecast-based Financing mechanism to an existing social protection system. Research question – Using the case of flood disasters in Bardiya district, Nepal, the research inquired the following: How can social protection be combined with Forecast-based Financing in order to optimise anticipatory humanitarian relief for climate-related disasters? Sub-questions – Research sub-questions guided the inquiry: (1) To what extent are current social protection beneficiaries exposed to climate-related disasters? (2) What is the specific climate vulnerability of social protection beneficiaries? (3) What are the anticipatory relief needs of climate vulnerable social protection beneficiaries? Methodology – Grounded in empirical research via the conduct of a qualitative single case study, the inquiry adopted a conceptual perspective and an exploratory design. A remote data collection strategy was applied, which included (1) a thorough desk review of key scientific literature and secondary data provided by in-field humanitarian organisations; and (2) semi-structured interviews with key informants. Key findings – The data demonstrated that the exposure of social protection beneficiaries to flood hazards is comparable to the general population. Nevertheless, an elevated climate vulnerability is evident secondary to an increased sensitivity and diminished adaptive capacity. The flood anticipatory relief needs/preferences identified include cash-based assistance, food provisions, evacuation assistance and/or enhanced Early Warning Systems. Conclusion – The research supports the utilisation of the proposed conceptual model for an integrated social protection and Forecast-based Financing mechanism, inclusive of vertical and horizontal expansion, in order to effectively identify the most climate vulnerable groups and to guide the provision of targeted anticipatory actions. The mechanism is optimised when a people-centred approach is utilised, with reference to the idiosyncratic, lifecycle and corresponding intersectional vulnerabilities of the targeted population. These findings will contribute to prospective programming in Nepal; additionally, the extent to which they can be generalised will be informed by future applied efficacy studies and comparative analyses with research from differing contexts.

The Diploma Thesis focuses on the assessment of the current state of VD Tesetice to convert KPV parameters Q1000. Based on this evaluation, the thesis proposes corrective actions on waterwork constructions for the purpose of protection of their functioning during floods. Proposed corrective actions consist of designing new or additional safety features, mainly security spillway in abutment terrain.

This thesis deals with flood protection of the Hustopeče nad Bečvou. The work is divided into three parts. The first part describes the data necessary for the design of flood protection measures. The second part describes the hydrotechnical calculations and the third part describes proposals for flood protection.

MSc (Statistics) / Department of Statistics / Haulage trucks and cross border traders cross through Beitbridge border post from landlocked countries such as Zimbabwe and Zambia for the sake of trading. Because of global warming, South Africa has lately been experiencing extreme weather patterns in the form of very high temperatures and heavy rainfall. Evidently, in 2013 tra c could not cross the Limpopo River because water was owing above the bridge. For planning, its important to predict the likelihood of such events occurring in future. Extreme value models o er one way in which this can be achieved. This study identi es suitable distributions to model the annual maximum heights of Limpopo river at Beitbridge border post. Maximum likelihood method and the Bayesian approach are used for parameter estimation. The r -largest order statistics was also used in this dissertation. For goodness of t, the probability and quantile- quantile plots are used. Finally return levels are calculated from these distributions. The dissertation has revealed that the 100 year return level is 6.759 metres using the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches to estimate parameters. Empirical results show that the Fr echet class of distributions ts well the ood heights data at Beitbridge border post. The dissertation contributes positively by informing stakeholders about the socio- economic impacts that are brought by extreme flood heights for Limpopo river at Beitbridge border post

Present days are characterized by raising awareness of natural hazards, especially the risk of flood events. Extreme floods are connected with large - scale material damage and also endanger human lives. That's why the issue of flood formation and its possibility of forecasting has became disccused topic these days. Research of passed floods provides principles of effective flood protection in specific area. The main aim of this thesis is to analyse flood events that passed in the uper Opava river basin, concretely the source area containing the Černá, Střední and Bílá Opava river basins. This analysis refers about the flood frequency, different seasonal regime of floods occurence and looks for the relationship between atmospheric conditions and origin of flood events in the period of 1963 to 1997. Part of this thesis also summarizes main types of floods raised in the source area and compares different flood threat of the Černá, Střední and Bílá Opava rivers. There is also mentioned some basic differences of drainage formation, natural conditions and rainfall distribution in specific catchment area.

The rising temperature of the earth due to climate change has shown to alter the variations of hydro-climate variables, including their intensities, frequencies and durations. Extreme events such as floods are, in particular, susceptible to any disturbances in climate cycles. As such it is important to provide policymakers with sufficient knowledge about the probable impacts of climate change on hydrologic extremes and most importantly on floods, which have the highest impacts on the societies. For this reason analysis of hydro-climate extremes is commonly performed using data at each site (or grid cell), however due to the limited number of extreme events, these analyses are not robust. Current methods, such as the regional frequency analysis, which combine data from different locations are incapable of incorporating the spatial structure of the data as well as other explanatory variables, and do not explicitly, assess the uncertainties. In this thesis the spatial hierarchical Bayesian model is proposed for hydro-climate extreme analyses using data recorded at each site or grid. This method combines limited number of data from different locations, estimates the uncertainties in different stages of the hierarchy, incorporates additional explanatory variables (covariates), and can be used to estimate extreme events at un-gaged sites. The first project develops a spatial hierarchical Bayesian method to model the extreme runoffs over two spatial domains in the Columbia River Basin, U.S. The model is also employed to estimate floods with different return levels within time slices of fifteen years in order to detect possible trends in runoff extremes. Continuing on the extreme analysis, the impact of climate change on runoff extremes is investigated over the whole Pacific Northwest (PNW). This study aims to address the question of how the runoff extremes will change in the future compared to the historical time period, investigate the different behaviors of the regional climate models (RCMs) regarding the runoff extremes, and assess the seasonal variations of runoff extremes. Given the increasing number of climate model simulations the goal of the third project is to provide a multi-model ensemble average of hydro-climate extremes and characterize the inherent uncertainties. Outputs from several regional climate models provided by NARCCAP are considered for the analysis in all seasons. Three combination scenarios are defined and compared for multi-modeling of extreme runoffs. The biases of each scenario are calculated and the scenario with the least bias is selected for projecting seasonal runoff extremes. The aim of the fourth project is to quantify and compare the uncertainties regarding global climate models to the ones from the hydrologic model structures in climate change impact studies. Various methods have been proposed to downscale the coarse resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) climatological variables to the fine scale regional variables; however fewer studies have been focused on the selection of GCM predictors. Additionally, the results obtained from one downscaling technique may not be robust and the uncertainties related to the downscaling scheme are not realized. To address these issues, in the fifth study we employed Independent Component Analysis (ICA) for predictor selection which determines spatially independent GCM variables (as discussed in Appendix A). Cross validation of the independent components is employed to find the predictor combination that describes the regional precipitation over the upper Willamette basin with minimum error. These climate variables along with the observed precipitation are used to calibrate three downscaling models: Multi Linear Regression (MLR), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS).

Bakgrund: Globalt sett är översvämningar, näst efter stormar, den naturfara som orsakar mest ekonomisk skada. Inom Europeiska unionen (EU) fick översvämningar ett ökat fokus efter att Europa under 2002 drabbades av stora översvämningar. Mot denna bakgrund lanserades i oktober 2012 det EU-finansierade projektet STAR-FLOOD. Projektet mynnade ut i en guidebok för hur översvämningsrisker kan hanteras. I guideboken, skriven av Raadgever m.fl. (2016) rekommenderas en blandning av strategier (diversifiering), för hanteringen av översvämningsrisker. Inom EU har översvämningsrisker traditionellt hanterats genom fysiska skydd, vilket bara är en av flera strategier. I Sverige hanteras översvämningar främst i den akuta fasen och genom privata försäkringar. Översvämningsskydd har först på senare tid fått allt större betydelse för hur översvämningar hanteras i Sverige, något som kan exemplifieras genom den vall som ska byggas på Falsterbonäset i Vellinge kommun i sydvästra Skåne. Det finns en paradox med den typen av strukturella översvämningsskydd och det är att skydden faktiskt kan öka översvämningsrisken. Paradoxen kallas för levé-effekten och innebär att strukturella översvämningsskydd kan leda till en falsk trygghet hos dem som bor i det skyddade området. En diversifierad strategi för hantering av översvämningsrisker kan däremot minska risken för att levé-effekten uppstår. Syfte: Att studera i vilken mån en diversifierad strategi kan spåras i fallet med det planerade översvämningsskyddet på Falsterbonäset. Metod: En beskrivande fallstudie av hur översvämningsrisker från havet hanteras på Falsterbonäset. Materialet har i huvudsak samlats in genom kvalitativa intervjuer som sedan analyserats med riktad kvalitativ innehållsanalys. Som komplement till intervjuerna har även annat material analyserats, främst kommundokument. Den teori som studien grundas på är levé-effekten och teorin om riskhomeostas. Resultat: Mot bakgrund av guideboken skriven av Raadgever m.fl. (2016) är det möjligt för Vellinge kommun att vidta fler strategier för att minska sannolikheten för och konsekvenserna av översvämningar på Falsterbonäset. Exempelvis hade det varit möjligt att begränsa utvecklingen i det skyddade området och ställa tydliga krav på plushöjder för nybyggnation. Samtidigt har kommunens strategi aldrig varit så diversifierad som nu med anledning av det kommande översvämningsskyddet. Avslutningsvis finns det vissa indikationer på att en levé-effekt kan uppstå. / Background: In a global perspective are floods, after storms, the natural hazard that causes the most economic damage. Within the European Union (EU), floods gained increased focus after Europe was hit by major floods in 2002. Because of this, the EU-funded project STAR-FLOOD was launched in October 2012. Among other things, the project resulted in a guidebook for how flood risks can be managed. The guidebook, written by Raadgever et.al. (2016), recommends a mix of strategies (diversification) for the management of flood risks. Within the EU, flood risks have traditionally been managed through structural protection, being just one of several strategies. In Sweden, floods are managed mainly in the acute phase and through private insurance. Flood protection has recently become increasingly important for how floods are handled in Sweden, which can be exemplified by the levee that is to be built on Falsterbonäset in Vellinge municipality in Skåne. However, there is a paradox with this type of structural flood protection, and it is that these can increase the risk of flooding. The paradox is called the levee effect and means that structural flood protection can lead to a false sense of security in those who live in the protected area. A diversified strategy for managing flood risks can reduce the risk of the levee effect. Purpose: Study to which extent a diversified strategy can be traced in the case of structural protection that is planned structural on Falsterbonäset. Method: A descriptive case study of how flood risks from the sea are managed on Falsterbonäset. The material has mainly been collected through qualitative interviews which have then been analysed with a directed qualitative content analysis. As a complement to the interviews, other material has also been analysed, mainly municipal documents. The theory on which the study is based, is the levee effect and the theory of risk homeostasis. Results: Based on the guidebook by Raadgever et.al. (2016), it is possible for Vellinge municipality to do more to reduce the probability and the consequences of floods on Falsterbonäset. For example, it would have been possible to limit the development in the protected area and set clear requirements for heights for new buildings. At the same time, the municipality's strategy has never been as diversified as it is now, due to the forthcoming flood protection. However, there are some indications of conditions for a levee effect to occur.

An object of leisure-time center and a new bridge were designed according to needs and limits of this location, that they correspond to. This project follows up on the previous analysis and the riverfront design in the section between the main bridge and the Zborovsky bridge in Kroměříž. The general target of this project is an active integrating the river and its closest neighborhood to the city environment. This target is supported by the study in this project. The leisure-time center design creates a social background and a center of this area and it would became an important point in Kroměříž, where people could relocate on the river, by bike or on foot from. The new bridge design examines possible solutions of a new bridge over the river in Kroměříž, that is missing here.