Previous research has shown that expected market returns vary over time and that this variation can be predicted by variables such as dividend yields and book-to-market ratios (Fama and French (1989); Campbell and Thompson (2008)). Further, macroeconomic variables affect asset returns (Flannery and Protopapadikas (2002)). We investigate whether the investment decisions of mutual fund investors incorporate information about future stock returns contained in predictive and macroeconomic variables. If investors incorporate this information, then variation in flows should be related to that in predictive variables and macroeconomic variables. Using quarterly flow data from 1951Q4 to 2007Q4, we find that both predictive and macroeconomic variables have a relatively small impact on flows. Our results suggest that fund investors, as a group, fail to adequately incorporate the information contained in these variables. Existing literature documents that (i) an asymmetric low-performance relationship creates an incentive for managers to extract rents from shareholders, and (ii) managers respond to such incentives by strategically altering portfolio risk. Using the semiparametric regression model proposed by Chevalier and Ellison (1997), we show that the flow-performance relationship has become linear in recent years (2000-2009) and fund managers no longer respond to such incentives. Fund managers, however, change portfolio risk in response to past performance; such changes have a positive impact on fund performance and are indicative of a better alignment of interests between managers and shareholders. / Ph. D.

Submitted by Marcel Gomes (marcelgg@gmail.com) on 2014-02-12T21:38:11Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Marcel Final.pdf: 896702 bytes, checksum: 5b80f0337fd8514137ac68e8b865cd67 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2014-02-13T10:44:22Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Marcel Final.pdf: 896702 bytes, checksum: 5b80f0337fd8514137ac68e8b865cd67 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-02-13T11:09:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Marcel Final.pdf: 896702 bytes, checksum: 5b80f0337fd8514137ac68e8b865cd67 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-01-21 / This paper is dedicated to investigate the relationship between performance and funds flows for fixed income, multimarket and equity funds categories in Brazil identifying behavioral differences between institutional and individuals investors assisted by the retail and private banking. It is documented in the literature that investors make their investment decisions based on recent historical performance, however, allocating more resources to funds that performed better compared to worst, ie, the flow - performance relationship becomes convex. Other results in the literature indicate that individual and institutional investors have different behaviors to past returns. The results reached in this study suggest that the convex relation is revealed for retail investors in equity and multimarket funds and fixed income to institutional investors. However, as fixed income funds in retail, as multimarket funds and equity funds for institutional investors and for the three categories in private banking, the convexity was not verified. / Este trabalho se dedica a investigar a relação entre desempenho e captação para fundos de investimento das categorias renda fixa, multimercados e ações no Brasil identificando diferenças de comportamento entre investidores institucionais e pessoas físicas atendidas pelos segmentos de varejo e private banking. É documentada na literatura que os investidores tomam suas decisões de investimentos baseadas no histórico recente de desempenho, destinando, contudo, maior volume de recursos para fundos que apresentaram melhor desempenho em relação aos de pior, ou seja, a relação fluxo-desempenho se torna convexa. Outros resultados encontrados na literatura sinalizam que investidores individuais e institucionais apresentam comportamentos distintos aos retornos passados. Os resultados alcançados neste trabalho sugerem que a relação convexa se manifesta para investidores de varejo nos fundos de ações e multimercados e de renda fixa para investidores institucionais. Entretanto, tanto para os fundos de renda fixa no varejo, quanto para os fundos multimercados e ações para investidores institucionais e para as três categorias no private banking não foi verificada convexidade.

Submitted by Frederico Muniz (fredericomuniz@hotmail.com) on 2015-01-30T18:37:17Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Frederico_Rezende_Muniz.pdf: 309522 bytes, checksum: d81a82e2f8a1b4448247a63313cfa2b0 (MD5) / Rejected by JOANA MARTORINI (joana.martorini@fgv.br), reason: Frederico, Seu trabalho foi rejeitado, por gentileza, justificar a página onde consta a dedicatória pois está fora das normas da ABNT. Peço que deixe conforme a página onde consta o resumo, este é o padrão correto. on 2015-02-04T16:25:28Z (GMT) / Submitted by Frederico Muniz (fredericomuniz@hotmail.com) on 2015-02-04T18:24:03Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Frederico_Rezende_Muniz_vf.pdf: 308475 bytes, checksum: 2078a1520dc9cc8be9be3f1540fa7008 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by JOANA MARTORINI (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2015-02-04T18:35:05Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Frederico_Rezende_Muniz_vf.pdf: 308475 bytes, checksum: 2078a1520dc9cc8be9be3f1540fa7008 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-02-04T20:32:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Frederico_Rezende_Muniz_vf.pdf: 308475 bytes, checksum: 2078a1520dc9cc8be9be3f1540fa7008 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015 / The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between past performance and fund flows in brazilian funds. Using a unique data set provided by a local fund manager and using a regression model with fixed effects, evidences were found of a positive and statistically significant relationship between past performance and fund flows. In addition, in the most important contribution of this study, it was found that investors with origin in different segments are likely to differ in their behavior while investing in the same funds. The evaluated segments were Institutional, Private Banking, Corporate, External Distribution and Fund of Funds. More sophisticated clients showed a weaker tendency to chase past performance. / Neste trabalho foi estudada a relação entre o desempenho passado e a captação em fundos de investimento no Brasil. A partir de informações contidas em uma base de dados disponibilizada por uma gestora de recursos local e utilizando um modelo de regressão com efeitos fixos, foram encontrados indícios de relação positiva e estatisticamente significativa entre desempenho passado e captação. Adicionalmente, na análise que representa a principal contribuição deste trabalho, foi verificado que existem diferenças significativas no comportamento de investidores de diferentes segmentos que sejam cotistas dos mesmos fundos mútuos. Os segmentos analisados foram o Institucional, Private Banking, Corporate, Distribuidores e Fundo de Fundos. Investidores tidos como mais sofisticados se mostraram menos orientados pelo desempenho histórico em suas decisões de alocação.

Submitted by Osmar Camilo (oc.camilo@gmail.com) on 2013-02-26T21:39:05Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Osmar_Cesar Camilo_n311531_vFinal.pdf: 490286 bytes, checksum: ffbe41b1673d62eba3647fd98f9d5797 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Eliene Soares da Silva (eliene.silva@fgv.br) on 2013-02-26T21:45:43Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Osmar_Cesar Camilo_n311531_vFinal.pdf: 490286 bytes, checksum: ffbe41b1673d62eba3647fd98f9d5797 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-02-26T21:47:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Osmar_Cesar Camilo_n311531_vFinal.pdf: 490286 bytes, checksum: ffbe41b1673d62eba3647fd98f9d5797 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-01-29 / A indústria brasileira de fundos de investimento cresceu significativamente nos últimos anos. A revitalização do mercado de ações no final dos anos 1990 e início dos 2000 incentivou a procura e a abertura de muitos fundos de investimento em ações. Usualmente, os investidores procuram identificar os gestores mais habilidosos por meio de seu desempenho passado. A literatura internacional sobre o tema é vasta em estudos sobre persistência de desempenho passado e habilidade do gestor. No entanto, parte dos esforços dos pesquisadores da área tem se direcionado para investigação da relação entre fluxo de recursos e desempenho passado e o que tal relação tem a dizer sobre o comportamento do investidor. Conceitos de Finanças Comportamentais como viés de representatividade e aversão a perdas são normalmente associados ao comportamento de investidores individuais de ações. Mas o que se pode dizer sobre os investidores de fundos de ações? Eles apresentam vieses similares aos dos investidores individuais? Com base numa amostra mensal de 447 fundos de investimento em ações entre janeiro de 1996 e agosto de 2012, esse trabalho procurou identificar vieses comportamentais apresentados pelos investidores. Foram encontradas evidências da presença do viés de representatividade para o mercado brasileiro, por meio da estimação da relação fluxo-desempenho passado, o que representa a principal contribuição desse trabalho à literatura. / Brazilian mutual funds industry has grown significantly in recent years. The revival of the stock market in the late 1990s and early 2000s boosted demand and the opening of many equity mutual funds. The international literature on the subject is vast in studies on the persistence of past performance and skill of the manager. However, part of the efforts of researchers has been directed to investigate the relationship between money flows and past performance and what this relationship has to say about investor behavior. Behavioral Finance concepts as representativeness bias and loss aversion are usually associated with the behavior of individual equity investors. But what can be said about equity mutual fund investors? Do they present the same biases individual investors do? Based on a monthly sample of 447 equity mutual funds between January 1996 and August 2012, this study sought to identify behavioral biases presented by investors. Through the estimation of the flow-performance relationship, evidence of the presence of representativeness bias was found, which corresponds to the main contribution of this working paper to the literature.

Der erste Artikel liefert Beweise dafür, dass ein Liquiditätsschock bei geschlossenen Fonds zu einer Liquiditätsverschlechterung bei offenen Fonds führen kann. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Aktien von geschlossenen Fonds, die aufgrund eines Marktversagens notverkauft wurden, temporär im Preis sinken. Offene Fonds, die viele der betroffenen Aktien halten, erleiden daraufhin einen Kapitalabfluss, der weitere Notverkäufe bedingt. Dies unterstreicht die Ansteckungsgefahr zwischen den beiden Finanzmärkten. Der zweite Artikel untersucht, ob Fonds, die mit Staatsanleihen handeln, ihr Risiko durch den Wertpapierverleih erhöhen, indem sie die hierbei erhaltenen Sicherheiten risikoreich reinvestieren. Hiermit konsistent finden wir, dass die Returnvolatilität von Fonds ansteigt, je mehr Wertpapiere verliehen werden. Diese Korrelation ist nur evident, wenn der für den Wertpapierverleih verantwortliche Agent bereits in der Vergangenheit solch eine Strategie praktiziert hat. Sie verschwindet hingegen, wenn der Agent Sicherheiten nicht risikoreich reinvestieren kann. Im dritten Artikel stellen wir ein neues Maß vor, mit dem sich die Handelsaktivität von Fonds drei Tage vor den Geschäftsberichten untersuchen lässt. Stark handelnde Fonds halten bei Berichtsschluss mehr Gewinner- und weniger Verliereraktien. Zudem sind die üblichen Maße, die zur Identifizierung von Window Dressing verwendet werden, signifikant höher. Aktien, die in den letzten drei Tagen vor den Juli und Dezember Berichten einen starken Nachfrageüberschuss aufweisen, steigen in dieser Periode um durchschnittlich 20 Bsp. Dieser Anstieg ist nicht durch Informationstheorien erklärbar, da die Preise innerhalb von einer Woche auf ihr ursprüngliches Niveau zurückfallen. Aktien mit hoher Liquidität zeigen geringere Anstiege und kehren schneller zum Ausgangspreis zurück. Die Preisbewegungen lassen sich nicht durch einen einzelnen Faktor, wie Window Dressing oder Portfolio Pumping, erklären. / The first paper provides evidence that a liquidity shock to closed-end funds can transmit to open-end funds. Using the failure of the market for auction rate securities we show that forced asset sales of highly levered closed-end funds result in temporary price declines in those assets. Open-end funds that hold significant numbers of the affected stocks in turn experience outflows, forcing them to conduct additional fire-sales. These forced sales induce additional price pressure consistent with financial contagion. The second paper examines whether mutual bond funds increase their risk exposure through securities lending transactions by reinvesting the cash collateral of these transactions in risky assets. Consistent with such behavior, we find that the return volatility of government bond funds increases with the percentage of securities on loan. This relation is only evident among funds whose lending agent likely reinvests the lending collateral riskily and disappears if the lending program is managed by agents who typically cannot make risky reinvestments. The third paper provides a new way to measure the trading activity by mutual funds in the last three days of their reporting periods. Consistent with window dressing, heavy end-of-period (EoP) traders report more winner, fewer loser stocks and higher return and rank gaps, yet perform no better. Stocks with a high positive EoP trade imbalance show significant price increases of about 20 bps at the end of reporting periods in June and December. Inconsistent with information trading, prices revert within a week. Liquid stocks appreciate less strongly and revert more quickly. Finally, we show that window dressing, portfolio pumping, or fund flows alone are unlikely to explain our results.