The present work studies the application of two group discriminant analysis in the field of credit scoring. The view here given provides a completely different approach to how this problem is usually targeted. Credit scoring is widely used among financial institutions and is performed in a number of ways, depending on a wide range of factors, which include available information, support data bases, and informatic resources. Since each financial institution has its own methods of measuring risk, the ways in which an applicant is evaluated for the concession of credit for a particular product are at least as many as credit concessioners. However, there exist certain standard procedures for different products. For example, in the credit card business, when databases containing applicant information are available, usually credit score cards are constructed. These score cards provide an aid to qualify the applicant and decide if he or she represents a high risk for the institution or, on the contrary, a good investment. Score cards are generally used in conjunction with other criteria, such as the institution's own policies. In building score cards, generally parametric regression based procedures are used, where the assumption of an underlying model generating the data has to be made. Another aspect is that, in general, score cards are built taking into consideration only the probability that a particular applicant will not default. In this thesis, the objective will be to present a method of calculating a risk score that, does not depend on the actual process generating the data and that takes into account the costs and profits related to accepting a particular applicant. The ultimate objective of the financial institution should be to maximise profit and this view is a fundamental part of the procedure presented here.

The thesis explores applications of optimisation in investment management and risk measurement. In investment management the information issues are largely concerned with generating optimal forecasts. It is difficult to get inputs that have the properties they are supposed to have. Thus optimisation is prone to 'Garbage In, Garbage Out', that leads to substantial biases in portfolio selection, unless forecasts are adjusted suitably for estimation error. We consider three case studies where we investigate the impact of forecast error on portfolio performance and examine ways of adjusting for resulting bias. Treynor and Black (1973) first tried to make the best possible use of the information provided by security analysis based on Markovitz (1952) portfolio selection. They established a relationship between the correlation of forecasts, the number of independent securities available and the Sharpe ratio which can be obtained. Their analysis was based on the assumption that the correlation between the forecasts and outcomes is known precisely. In practice, given the low levels of correlation possible, an investor may believe himself to have a different degree of correlation from what he actually has. Using two different metrics we explore how the portfolio performance depends on both the anticipated and realised correlation when these differ. One measure, the Sharpe ratio, captures the efficiency loss, attributed to the change in reward for risk. The other measure, the Generalised Sharpe Ratio (GSR), introduced by Hodges (1997), quantifies the reduction in the welfare of a particular investor due to adopting an inappropriate risk profile. We show that these two metrics, the Sharpe ratio and GSR, complement each other and in combination provide a fair ranking of existing investment opportunities. Using Bayesian adjustment is a popular way of dealing with estimation error in portfolio selection. In a Bayesian implementation, we study how to use non-sample information to infer optimal scaling of unknown forecasts of asset returns in the presence of uncertainty about the quality of our information, and how the efficient use of information affects portfolio decision. Optimal portfolios, derived under full use of information, differ strikingly from those derived from the sample information only; the latter, unlike the former, are highly affected by estimation error and favour several (up to ten) times larger holdings. The impact of estimation error in a dynamic setting is particularly severe because of the complexity of the setting in which it is necessary to have time varying forecasts. We take Brennan, Schwartz and Lagnado's structure (1997) as a specific illustration of a generic problem and investigate the bias in long-term portfolio selection models that comes from optimisation with (unadjusted) parameters estimated from historical data. Using a Monte Carlo simulation analysis, we quantify the degree of bias in the optimisation approach of Brennan, Schwartz and Lagnado. We find that estimated parameters make an investor believe in investment opportunities five times larger than they actually are. Also a mild real time-variation in opportunities inflates wildly when measured with estimated parameters. In the latter part of the thesis we look at slightly less straightforward optimisation applications in risk measurement, which arise in reporting risk. We ask, what is the most efficient way of complying with the rules? In other words, we investigate how to report the smallest exposure within a rule. For this purpose we develop two optimal efficient algorithms that calculate the minimal amount of the position risk required, to cover a firm's open positions and obligations, as required by respective rules in the FSA (Financial Securities Association) Handbook. Both algorithms lead to interesting generalisations.

The U.K. capital market has observed a remarkable growth in the use of lease financing as a tool of financial management. It must be recognised, however, that its profitable use by Industry is dependent upon an easily applicable and theoretically acceptable method of evaluation within corporate capital budgeting procedures. Increasingly, analysts have come to acknowledge the need to integrate corporate investment and financing decisions insofar as concerns the acquisition of industrial plant and equipment. However, traditional methods of lease evaluation fail to examine its integrative nature, and in consequence, they neglect the critical interdependencies which encompass the simultaneous decision process. Extant lease evaluation models also fail to consider the consequences of the earnings generated by the "Residual Capital Balances". That is, the working capital freed when leasing is strategically used to relax what otherwise would be an unacceptable shortage of funds. Such earnings are a fundamental part of an integrated lease cash-flow profile under certain circumstances: namely, the use of leasing as part of a "Planned Financing Mix", as opposed to its use as an emergency or "spill-over" financing when no residual capital occurs. On the basis of extensive empirical study into the circumstances under which U.K. financial management had recourse to leasing, a hypothesis was developed to explain the role of leasing in corporate financial planning and debt management. The research proceeds to establish models for the evaluation of leasing under "spill-over" conditions (where all otherwise available sources of finance are, or appear to be, exhausted) and "Planned Financing" conditions (when the use of leasing in quantitative terns is formally envisaged as part of the corporate financing policy). In this way it is possible to determine the risks implicit in the haphazard use of leasing together with the benefits available to its planned use.

The present thesis provides an analysis of possible applications of the Laplace Transform (LT) technique to several pricing problems. In Finance this technique has received very little attention and for this reason, in the first chapter we illustrate with several examples why the use of the LT can considerably simplify the pricing problem. Observed that the analytical inversion is very often difficult or requires the computation of very complicated expressions, we illustrate also how the numerical inversion is remarkably easy to understand and perform and can be done with high accuracy and at very low computational cost. In the second and third chapters we investigate the problem of pricing corridor derivatives, i.e. exotic contracts for which the payoff at maturity depends on the time of permanence of an index inside a band (corridor) or below a given level (hurdle). The index is usually an exchange or interest rate. This kind of bond has evidenced a good popularity in recent years as alternative instruments to common bonds for short term investment and as opportunity for investors believing in stable markets (corridor bonds) or in non appreciating markets (hurdle bonds). In the second chapter, assuming a Geometric Brownian dynamics for the underlying asset and solving the relevant Feynman-Kac equation, we obtain an expression for the Laplace transform of the characteristic function of the occupation time. We then show how to use a multidimensional numerical inversion for obtaining the density function. In the third chapter, we investigate the effect of discrete monitoring on the price of corridor derivatives and, as already observed in the literature for barrier options and for lookback options, we observe substantial differences between discrete and continuous monitoring. The pricing problem with discrete monitoring is based on an appropriate numerical scheme of the system of PDE's. In the fourth chapter we propose a new approximation for pricing Asian options based on the logarithmic moments of the price average.

This thesis analyses interactions between firms and governments in climate change and international trade. First, a theory of international agreements on climate change is presented in which governments negotiate targets and firms bear the cost of emission reductions. It analyses the effect on negotiations of investment, on R&D for instance. The public good nature of the problem implies that investment improves the government’s bargaining position. Anticipating this effect on the Nash-bargained outcome will induce firms, surprisingly, to over-invest with respect to the second best. The second chapter explores a different area in which firms and governments interact: trade policy. This chapter analyses the incentives for trade protection in an electoral college setting by constructing a new multi jurisdictional political agency model. The introduction of a spatial factor shows how the distribution of swing voters across decisive, swing states affects trade policy incentives. The empirical analysis introduces a measure of how industries specialise geographically in swing and decisive states by augmenting a benchmark test of the "Protection for Sale" mechanism. The evidence provides support for the theory. A newly-available firm-level panel dataset for Belgium is described in the third chapter, in a bid to understand the patterns in the trade transaction data. The final chapter considers the determinants of firm exporting behaviour, in particular liquidity constraints. A heterogeneous �firms trade model shows how exporters in general, firms exporting to more destinations and to smaller markets, weighted by distance, are less likely to be credit-constrained. Finally, in the presence of liquidity constraints, the impact of exchange rates on trade flows is decomposed. These equilibrium relations hold in the Belgian data, measuring credit constraints with firm-year-level credit scores. This highlights the potential role of governments in determining, through their policies on credit constraints, the patterns of trade and hence productivity levels and overall welfare.

While there have been a number of studies of foreign exchange risk management in UK Multinational Companies (MNCs), the management of economic exposure has received very little attention. The aim of this study was to describe the management of economic exposure (and its relationship to transaction exposure) in UK MNCs. A random sample of twenty MNCs was selected, and archival data relevant to foreign exchange risk management were gathered. Finance personnel in both the HQ and the Irish subsidiaries of the twenty companies were interviewed. The results of the study with respect to transaction exposure were similar to previous studies. However, data collected at a subsidiary level revealed that the degree of centralisation may be underestimated by HQ treasurers, since divisional personnel may influence the practices in foreign subsidiaries. The degree of centralisation was explained by the presence of transaction costs in foreign exchange markets, and a relationship between centralisation and netting opportunities was detected. The in-house bank was highlighted as a mechanism for realising transaction cost savings without decreasing operating unit autonomy. An examination of the economic exposures of the sample companies revealed that economic exposure might be classified into four subsets: 1) Sticky Price Exposure (of which transaction exposure is a subset) 2) Traded Good Exposure (which arises from the tradeability of the MNC's products and factors of production) 3) Parallel Import Exposure 4) The Macroeconomic and Sectoral Consequences of Exchange Rate Changes The managerial response to economic exposure was also examined. The majority of corporate treasurers were only involved in transaction exposures and, with a few exceptions, the response to economic exposure was operational rather than financial. Political and promotional tactics were used extensively to manage economic exposure in the short-run. The creation of barriers to entry (and the resultant decrease in the tradeability of the firm's products) was a popular medium-run strategy. The author also found that only some of the sample MNCs had significant economic exposures. Finally, a decision support model was developed in order to operationalise the measurement of economic exposure, and the evaluation of exposure management alternatives.

Over the last 250 years, insurance law has become insurer biased to the detriment of consumers and modern business. Codification of judicial precedents and business practices resulted in the Marine Insurance Act 1906. There have been two attempts since the late 1950s to recommend changes, with reviews made by the English Law Reform Committee and the Law Commission in 1980. In the late 1970s, the insurance industry bought itself out of the Unfair Contract Terms Act 1977. In 1981, non-legal changes came gradually with the introduction of the Insurance Ombudsman Bureau, which took account of the law but followed best practice. With each decade that has passed, changes in practice have deviated away from the strict legal position. The insurer no longer has an agent to arrange policies, collect premiums and complete claims forms. The late 1980s and early to mid-1990s saw the introduction of distance selling via the telephone. The late 1990s, and early into 2000, saw the massive boom in Internet sales, with search engines focused on finding the best competitively priced quotes from insurers; however, the reforms that were needed still did not occur. The Marine Insurance Act 1906 still applied and formed the basis of insurance law for many common law countries which copied the statue verbatim. As a result, these countries also had similar problems as those suffered by the insured in the UK; however, some have undergone bold reforms, as in the case of Australia, unlike the UK, which has lagged behind significantly. The Scottish Law Commission and the Law Commission instigated a joint root-andbranch review of insurance law in 2006, as a result of a British Insurance Law Association paper (Insurance Contract Law Reform and Recommendations to the Law Commission (2002)) that highlighted the discrepancies in the law towards the insured. Unfortunately, however, the Commissions chose to focus on only certain areas. This thesis does not cover these aspects. It is concerned, however, with what could broadly be termed 'good faith', the corresponding duties vis-à-vis the insured and the insurer pre- and post-contract where the insured suffers disproportionately due to the way the law has developed pro-insurer biased. This body of work supporting the award of a PhD examines these corresponding duties where the articles form a basis of a contemporary, critical examination of these duties, and develops suggestions as to how the joint Law Commissions of England and Scotland should have approached changes.

In this thesis, we propose three new computational methods to price financial derivatives and construct hedging strategies under several underlying asset price dynamics. First, we introduce a method to price and hedge European basket options under two displaced processes with jumps, which are capable of accommodating negative skewness and excess kurtosis. The new approach uses Hermite polynomial expansion of a standard normal variable to match the first m moments of the standardised basket return. It consists of Black-and-Scholes type formulae and its improvement on the existing methods is twofold: we consider more realistic asset price dynamics and we allow more flexible specifications for the basket. Additionally, we propose two methods for pricing and hedging American options: one quasi-analytic and one numerical method. The first approach aims to increase the accuracy of almost any existing quasi-analytic method for American options under the geometric Brownian motion dynamics. The new method relies on an approximation of the optimal exercise price near the beginning of the contract combined with existing pricing approaches. An extensive scenario-based study shows that the new method improves the existing pricing and hedging formulae, for various maturity ranges, and, in particular, for long-maturity options where the existing methods perform worst. The second method combines Monte Carlo simulation with weighted least squares regressions to estimate the continuation value of American-style derivatives, in a similar framework to the one of the least squares Monte Carlo method proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz. We justify the introduction of the weighted least squares regressions by numerically and theoretically demonstrating that the regression estimators in the least squares Monte Carlo method are not the best linear unbiased estimators (BLUE) since there is evidence of heteroscedasticity in the regression errors. We find that the new method considerably reduces the upward bias in pricing that affects the least squares Monte Carlo algorithm. Finally, the superiority of our new two approaches for American options are also illustrated over real financial data by considering S&P 100 options and LEAPS®, traded from 15 February 2012 to 10 December 2014.

The purpose of the thesis is to explore the empirical relevance of the theory of financial liberalisation in the Mauritian context. After confronting the conflicting views in the literature, the changes that have taken place in the financial sector in terms of monetary policy and the institutional developments are examined. The study shows that government has played a role in boosting financial intermediation before liberalisation and that it has still a role to play after liberalisation. It also explains the measuresta ken to improve financial stability. The high concentration in both the banking and insurance sectors are also discussed. The thesis finds no evidence of an increase in real interest rate after liberalisation or any consequential improvement in domestic savings as suggested by the liberalisation theories. Further external liberalisation has not led to a drop in real interest rate and increased savings. Some minor episodes of banking and stock market crises have been identified. The research also examines the links between interest spread after liberalisation, fund cost and market share and the results tend to support the proposition that there is unidirectional causality from market share to interest spread. No significant change in share market size, liquidity and activity has been observed after liberalisation and the collective investment schemes have not yet indicated signs of ability to considerably mobilize savings and hence to boost the security market. There is evidence of a slow down of the financial deepening process as the liquidity ratio M2 Y exceeds 65%. Financial deepening is not found to be positively i related to real interest rate. This applies not only to Mauritius but equally to some other countries of the region. Although the evidence does not support the McKinnon and Shaw predictions concerning interest rate and mobilization of savings, yet there has been freer access to credit after liberalisation and the study has shown that private sector credit as a share of GDP is positively related to economic growth and that there is bidirectional causality between them. With respect to corporate financing the study shows that the behaviour of listed firins is consistent with the pecking order theory of finance and that the listed companies are now more sensitive to external financing for the acquisition of physical investment, in relation to their internal growth strategy.

This thesis contains of four chapters. The first chapter presents the introduction and all other three chapters look at different aspects of monetary policy in an economy with financial frictions. The second chapter studies the conditions under which a modest financial shock can trigger a deep recession with a prolonged period of slow recovery. We suggest that two factors can generate such a profile. The first is that the economy has accumulated a moderately high level of private debt by the time the adverse shock occurs. The second factor is when monetary policy is restricted by the zero lower bound. When present, these factors can result in a sharp contraction in output followed by a slow recovery. Perhaps surprisingly, we use a standard DSGE model with financial frictions along the lines of Jermann and Quadrini (2012) to demonstrate this result and so do not need to rely on dysfunctional interbank markets. The third chapter studies international transmission of financial shocks between two economies under flexible exchange rate regime. We consider different degrees of financial integration and demonstrate that welfare is maximised for an intermediate value of degree of it. Under perfect risk sharing there is large volatility of output during the period of adjustment, while the deleveraging is performed faster. With greater restrictions on international financial flows, the deleveraging is substantially slowed down which leads to longer periods of adjustment and greater costs. We demonstrate that in such world the effect of one country's credit shock has very limited effect on another country. When monetary policymakers cooperate and choose interest rate optimally, the unaffected country can nearly eliminate all aftereffects of the shock to the other country. To some extent, limited financial integration prevents the spread of volatility across the border, however, unconstrained monetary policy is the key to these results. In the fourth chapter we use two-country model and assume that both countries are locked into a permanently fixed exchange rate regime within a currency union. We demonstrate that the centralised monetary policy alone is unable to stabilise the economy. National fiscal policies must be activated to counteract asymmetric shocks. We demonstrate, however, that the effectiveness of fiscal policy is limited. Even if it is chosen optimally, fiscal policy does not eliminate cyclical patterns in economic adjustment, which is welfare-reducing volatility of economic variables. This model reveals that shocks hitting one economy, result in sharp contraction of consumption in both countries.