Thesis advisor: Harold Petersen / This paper examines the effects of monetary policy and credit conditions on housing markets in 15 different countries. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2013. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics Honors Program. / Discipline: Economics.

Thesis advisor: Matteo Iacoviello / Thesis advisor: Peter Ireland / Thesis advisor: Scott Schuh / These three essays are concerned with macroeconomic and monetary policy issues relating to the housing market and inflation-targeting. The essays can be characterized as applied macroeconomics in nature as they use insights from theory to construct macroeconomic models, which are then taken to the data. The first chapter in this study utilizes microeconomic evidence that nominal loss aversion plays a role in the pricing of housing services and explores the extent to which this phenomenon in the housing sector affects the macroeconomy as a whole. A two sector Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model of housing and consumption goods with downward nominal price rigidity in the housing sector is constructed to examine how asymmetries in the nominal pricing of housing services affects monetary policy in stabilizing the economy in response to shocks. A calibration exercise is also performed to gain insight to what degree pricing dynamics in the housing sector are driven by the tendency of sellers to be nominally loss averse. The second chapter explores the disparities in the success rate in hitting an explicit inflation target among OECD and Emerging Market inflation targeters. The study proposes a framework to try to circumvent the "good luck"/"good policy" forces as drivers of better inflation-targeting outcomes by estimating a measure of central bank credibility in targeting regimes. Two main findings are that Emerging Market targeting banks are less successful than their OECD counterparts in establishing credibility in targeting inflation and that credible regimes last on the order of five to ten times as long as the relatively short-lived incredible regimes for the two groups of targeting countries. The third chapter, co-authored with Scott Schuh of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, takes a preliminary empirical step to model inflation outcomes for inflation band-targeting countries which allows us to isolate the empirical determinants of inflation escaping from the targeted band. We also use our framework to determine whether US inflation is consistent with inflation under an explicit targeting regime. Our model generates the result that US inflation during the last decade is well predicted by a model of inflation-targeting countries. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2008. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

Mortgage insurance (MI), is the insurance which a insurer guarantees that it will pay a certain portion of top tier mortgage loss to financial institution (insured) when the debtor defaults. Because the insurer shares the decreasing risk of collateral value, the bank is willing to lend homebuyer more money. The homebuyer can use low down payment (3%-10% in American) to buy a house so that he can shorten the waiting time of saving enough down payment. By this mechanism, the homebuyer, financial institution and house market all can benefit. Besides, mortgage insurance has the credit enhancement function in second mortgage market, and it helps the real estate securitization. The goal of this thesis is to introduce the mechanism of mortgage insurance in American and to analyze how it works in Taiwan. After estimating the need in Taiwan, I present some suggestions and I hope that mortgage insurance is available in Taiwan as soon as possible so that young people and earthquake 921 sufferers can make their owing house dream come true earlier.

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The Effect of Airbnb on Prague Housing Market Daniel Ondruška This thesis studies multiple topics but its main purpose is research of the effect of home-sharing platform Airbnb on house prices and rents in Prague. Sharing economy in general is still a new sector and it is very hard to uncover and correctly analyze it and therefore there are not yet that many studies on this topic. Using very contained and detailed datasets of Airbnb listings, house transactions and renting, we prove that there is a relationship between Airbnb activity and house prices. The results suggest that the increase of Airbnb listings by 1\% leads to a 0.01\% in house price. We also look at COVID-19 and its impact on house prices and rents. This part will be very theoretical since the pandemic is still an actual topic and its real effect might not be fully visible yet.

市場研究首先面對的課題就是價格與供需，習慣上研究者多採取「價格與需求」或「價格與供給」的配對方式來處理，或者在價格與交易量同時決定的市場均衡假設下，直接以「價格」的討論做為市場研究的對象。 本研究認為「價格與供需」在既有的理論基礎之外，更重要的意義是提供一些較為適宜的研究切入點，然後讓研究者依據現實的觀察與理論的推演，來探討市場變數之間各種可能的關係。因此，本研究依據台灣住宅市場的主要特性，並且從價格與數量兩種變數的各項關係，建立分析台灣住宅市場的理論基礎與發展方向。 基本上，價格與供需數量是市場上最重要的資訊，分別表示著供需雙方進入是場所面對的成本與收益水準，以及供需雙方對當前價格的接受程度以及對未來價格的預期，市場上的任何變遷實際上都是市場參與者行為的結果。因此本研究先將住宅供幾者分為建商與一般售屋者，將需求者分為投資需求者與消費需求者，並且探討各類市場參與者的行為特性，以及在不同的市場景氣下，各種供需行為的加總對市場價格與交易量波動的影響，然後據此結果建立住宅市場景氣循環的個體行為基礎。這樣的分析方式，一方面可補充過去直接以總體經濟變數分析市場景氣循環的不足，同時也可以瞭解住宅市場景氣循環的個體面原因。 此外，因為住宅具有異質性，因此可從財貨類型、區位﹍等角度區隔為多種次市場，且在各種次市場的各種住宅價格與供需數量之間存在著不同的理論關係。然而此項課題涉及的研究領域十分廣泛，因此本研究僅探討台灣住宅市場最具特色的預售屋市場與成屋市場的關係。 本研究對此項課題是以住宅存量-流量模型為基礎，一方面納入預售市場於建築期間即可銷售的特性，以及國人以購屋為主的住宅消費習慣，同時探討住宅生產時間落差現象，進而建立解釋成屋市場與預售屋市場價格與數量關係的理論基礎。 另外，住宅次市場的概念引發了本研究對個別次市場之間，以及整體市場與次市場之間相互關係的討論，這是既有研究尚未深入探討的領域。在變數方面，本研究以住宅次市場「價格比例」與「市場規模」取代傳統的價格水準與交易戶數；在理論基礎上，則以封閉市場的假設條件下，探討整體市場與個別次市場的相互關係；關於各次市場之間，則假設彼此具有相互競爭與合作兩種關係，並以開放市場的概念來討論。 此項研究課題對重新建構住宅市場的理論體系具有十分重要的意義。此項理論關係，一方面打破過去將單一住宅次市場視為封閉體系的研究假設，提出各住宅次市場之間的橫向關係，以及次市場與整體市場的縱向關係。更重要的是，可以透過此項理論結構探討住宅市場資源（金）在各個次市場的配置關係與原因，對解釋台灣住宅市場的亂象深具意義。 在前述的理念體系與理論基礎下，本研究進行各項理論上的推演與實證分析，所得結果說明如下： 一、從住宅市場供需雙方行為特性配合市場景氣循環過程的影響得知：在景氣循環過程中，住宅供需雙方的行為結果，將使得市場價格與交易量均衡點的移動軌跡呈現逆時針旋轉的趨勢。另經由單根檢定與共積檢定，發現台北市住宅價格波動會對交易量脫離長期均衡時能夠產生調整的功能；然而，當市場價格脫離長期均衡時，交易量反而是朝發散的方向波動，顯示台北市住宅市場的投資需求以及投機的影響確實十分明顯。 二、從成屋與預售屋市場之價格與供給量的關係，配合國人偏好購屋以及住宅生產期間長的特性，重新界定住宅存量市場與流量市場的理論結構，並修正住宅存量-流量模型。實證結果顯示，台北市成屋市場與預售屋市場的價格與供給量的關係，並不完全符合存量-流量模型。 此外，成屋與預售屋市場的價格波動具有促進市場向長期均衡收斂的功能，且預售屋市場價格的調整速率高於成屋市場，顯示預售屋制度有提昇市場效率的作用。但是預售屋供給量並無法發揮調節成屋市場供需落差的功能，顯示台北市住宅供給量資訊的市場意義仍未明顯發揮，這也是為何近年來市場餘屋大量增加下，市場價格下跌卻十分有限的原因之一。 三、本研究假設整體市場規模是由個別次市場規模加總而來，而非假設整體市場規模固定，再分配到個別次市場之中，並以「價格比例」與「市場規模」的相互影響關係，建立住宅空間次市場相互影響關係的靜態與比較靜態理論基礎。由理論分析得知，住宅空間次市場的價格比例與市場規模是相互連動的，且各住宅次市場同時受到整體市場景氣趨勢的同向波動影響，以及相互競爭的反向波動影響。 實證結果顯示，台北市與台北縣住宅空間次市場的規模之間並不是純然的競爭關係，而是呈現齊漲齊跌的情況。顯示台北市縣住宅市場的競爭程度低於共同反應預期景氣的相互拉抬合作程度。此外，在住宅價格比例長期遞減趨勢下，台北市住宅市場的規模將會逐漸縮減，台北縣住宅市場規模則持續擴大，且兩次市場住宅價格比例也將逐漸持續降低。 / This dissertation combined by three relative essays. In the first paper I analyze the relationship between price and volume of housing market in Taiwan. The analysis suggests a counter-clock cyclical pattern of housing price and volume in the standard price-quantity plane. Empirical results through cointegration tests confirm our analysis that, in the long run, the fluctuation of Taipei's housing transaction volume causes the housing price to fluctuate. In the second paper I discusses the relationship between existing and pre-sales housing market. Basically, existing housing market is similar as spot market, pre-sales housing market is similar to futures or forwards market (Chang & Ward, 1993). Restated, the goods of pre-sales housing market are the housing units under construction. We modify the stock-flow model of Fisher(1992) and DiPasquale & Wheaton(1992, 1994) to analyze the price-volume relationship between existing housing market and pre-sales housing market. By the empirical test of Taiwan's housing market, the consequences imply that pre-sales market price adjustment rate to the long-run equilibrium price is rapid than the price adjustment rate in existing housing market. In other words, the pre-sales system can improve the market efficiency. The result of supply adjustment rate is insignificant, which implying that housing market is basically influenced by price not by volume in Taiwan. The final paper established the price, volume and mutual interrelation basis through the housing price ratio and market size to provide housing market framework researchers a new point. Then I conducted an empirical analysis of the Taipei City and Taipei County housing markets. Finding that the competition between the two sub-markets is low. Furthermore, there is a signification correlation between market size and price ratio fluctuation, and the price ratio is a better of market economical cycle indicator than price fluctuation.

The past three decades have witnessed the rapid development of the Chinese housing market , which is considered as a barometer of and an extremely crucial component of the whole Chinese economic system. Although some important findings have been obtained by previous research, many conclusions have been controversial and a comprehensive understanding of the mechanism and behaviour of the Chinese housing system is a worthwhile endeavour. The existing studies about the Chinese housing market are mostly confined to qualitative analysis, lacking the support of a theoretical basis and empirical research. This thesis aims to employ more recent econometrical methodologies, from both theoretical and empirical perspectives, to systematically analyse several prevalent issues of the Chinese housing market. More specifically, this thesis is going to explore the main determinants of house prices, the convergence and ripple effects of regional house prices, and the interactive relationship between housing conditions and individual’s subjective well-being. Some empirical findings can be drawn from this thesis: 1) by using the system GMM dynamic panel data models, the results indicate that Chinese house prices are mainly affected by factors related to government policies and speculative demand rather than the urbanization process, which is understandable in a non-fully market-oriented status quo; 2) there is evidence of very limited convergence of regional house prices by employing unit root tests, σ-convergence and β-convergence approaches; however, the alternative methods, such as panel regression models, Engle-Granger/Johansen cointegration tests and Granger Causality tests, imply that house prices can ripple out from some core cities to other cities; 3) the results of the Ordered Probit Models suggest that the housing conditions in urban areas play a significant role in peoples’ subjective well-being in respect of housing satisfaction and overall happiness; additionally, the effects of housing factors impact on different groups of residents in different ways. Due to the limitations of data sources in the early days, this thesis is the first to combine such a wide panel data series, on both the time dimension and geographic dimension, to study the Chinese Housing Market. Also, when analysing the convergence and ripple effects models, this thesis transfers the original link indexes used by previous scholars into modified constant growth indexes, which improves the efficiency of empirical models to a greater extent. In addition, approaches using the system GMM method, σ- and β-convergence analysis, Engle-Granger/Johansen cointegration tests and Granger Causality tests are first introduced into the study of the Chinese housing market, generally achieving good results especially in the determinants of house prices and the ripple effects of regional house prices. Moreover, except for the commonly used method of the Ordered Probit Model for the questionnaire survey research, this thesis produces the predicted value of housing satisfaction by using two-stage estimations, to investigate the effects of housing conditions and housing satisfaction on people’s overall happiness. Meanwhile, the approach of ‘money equivalent effects’ is also a new perspective in detecting the effects of housing conditions on overall happiness.

My research aims to compare the housing and credit bubbles between China and the US by comparing real estate bubbles of Florida and Hainan. It took the US government 4 years to overcome 2008 financial crisis. Now China has entered the era of stock housing. In the early of 2016, China had 8.4 billion sq.ft stocking housing 1. If the crisis is inevitable, how and where will it happen? What's more, I want to find out the role of financial innovations in securitization along with the incompleteness of real estate markets in the global financial crisis. Were "innovations" in securitization a common cause of the crisis of what was a global cycle? My paper will help readers to further understand the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, as well as China's current problems faced by the real estate bubble. By comparison, I hope that the United States before the problems faced by the U.S. government and the solution can be used for reference to the Chinese government and related companies in order to face the possible real est e bubble crisis. Still, China's property market looks relatively sane when compared to the peak of the Japanese residential property bubble in 1990 and Hong Kong's current property market. During this period of Japan's housing value-to-GDP ratio peaked at just under four and today Hong Kong's ratio stands at around five. As we can see, the housing and credit bubble in China is so huge now that China has never been before. As Wang Jianlin, the leader of the biggest real estate company in China, saying, "The Housing bubble in China is the biggest in history." / 0 / SPK / specialcollections@tulane.edu

This study intends to scrutinize how adjustments made in the housing market has affected the profession of estate agents. Our premise is based on that social facts can be interpreted by social facts and the aim is to understand the factors affecting the profession in today's society that are developed in interaction with societal factors. In order to fathom this phenomenon, we have chosen to study the profession of estate agents and how it has been affected by the housing market. The empirical material is based on real estate agents’ experience and is therefore collected through a qualitative method based on interviews. The study is interpreted by a professional theoretical perspective, where we have assumed the thesis that all professions can be professionalised. The theoretical conceptual apparatus consists of autonomy, social closure, legitimacy, authority and will be used to understand the professionalisation process, that is when and why professions arise. Despite the fact of the profession’s changes, it has not been enough for the profession to be professionalised in the classical term. It can be said that the housing market has affected the professionalisation process of profession of real estate brokerage, which means that social factors can influence the professionalisation process. What prevents the profession from change and development of their professional position is the lack of autonomy. Due to the runaway housing market, a regulator was established to combat irregular transactions, which lead to decreased autonomy. A stronger professional status would derive from an increased authonomy and the conclusion is therefore that as long as the profession is under external control, it will not be professionalised.

This study applies a housing market perspective on hotspots in northern, rural Sweden. It uses the concept ‘hotspot’ defined as places with rising house prices and in-migration of households with higher than average education and income. The focus rests on three places having the ideal characteristics of being a rural hotspot, located in three Swedish northern municipalities. These places are explored through ten interviews with ‘footloose’ households. The aim is to explore factors that shape rural housing market hotspots using stories from hotspot population households. The first reason for this study is that regional planning requests understanding to develop different regions and places for the future. Here the origins of hotspots are explored to understand the spread and sustainability of such developments. Second, housing markets in the countryside are more scantily investigated than in urban areas. In the unbalanced housing market with higher prices and limited supply in the urban areas hotspots in rural areas are not following traditional housing market theories, they are rather anomalies. Interviews with a specific footloose group of recent hotspot in-migrants are used in combination with knowledge about the housing market. Results show that although hotspots are locations with beautiful nature most households moved there because of finding jobs. The three areas have the ‘extra’ nature values and high status required for being a hotspot and a location for commuting to larger labor markets. The ‘footloose’ non-return migrants did find nice, cheaper housing that made them chose the area despite being strangers to the place. I suggest hotspots are the rare combination of footloose migrants and special places which make them difficult to develop elsewhere. / På jakt efter hotspots. Den svenska landsbygdens ojämna urbanisering" Lena Magnusson Turner (principal applicant) and Eva Andersson Formas – for the period 2009–2010