Submitted by Mario BC (mario@bc.ufrpe.br) on 2016-08-15T12:47:57Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Jose Roberto Lopes da Silva.pdf: 3751979 bytes, checksum: d1e5aa84305eb1d047e5f172594d52cf (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-15T12:47:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Jose Roberto Lopes da Silva.pdf: 3751979 bytes, checksum: d1e5aa84305eb1d047e5f172594d52cf (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-07-28 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Conselho Nacional de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos - Finep / The semiarid region of Brazilian Northeast is characterized by presenting spatio-temporal variability of meteorological and hydrological variables, and in recent years comes to checking an increase of degraded areas in the region because of intensive soil use and absence of conservation practices. The inappropriate use of soil associated with climate change is unleashing and accelerating desertification processes. The characterization of the dynamics of hydrological and sedimentological processes in these regions become essential, since there is great shortage for a database in the semiarid watersheds that can support the management of water resources and soil conservation and provide subsidies for the use of models and generate future scenarios. Within this context the present research aims to evaluate the efficiency of conservation practices alternative and low cost in reducing soil loss and water as well as in maintaining soil moisture and dynamic surface temperature, through the investigation of hydrological and sedimentological processes in plot scale under different conditions of use and vegetation cover in semiarid region, in order to subsidize actions for the management and conservation of water and soil. The research was conducted in the County of Pesqueira, Agreste region of Pernambuco. Moisture dynamics, water loss and soil were evaluated in the following conditions of use: Plot with Natural Cover (PCN), Plot with Bare Soil (PD), Plot with Barrier of forage Palm (PBP) and Plot with Mulching (PCM). The results showed that the use of mulching as compared to bare soil promoted reduction of soil surface temperature during the day and increase overnight. The mulch was effective in reducing runoff and erosion control. The use of the barrier with forage palm was efficient in reducing soil loss, and proved to be a promising technique for conservation region. Among the conditions of covers evaluated the plot with bare soil was the one with the higher correlation between precipitation and runoff. In general the portion with forage palm (PBP) had moisture levels above the other treatments, showing to be a catchment system in situ efficient for the evaluated local conditions, mainly after the establishment of rain. The temporal stability of the moisture has been identified, and the stable points correlated well with the global average, with coefficients of determination (R²) above 0.90, the same can be used accurately to estimate soil moisture measurements in future. The Hydrus-1D model was able to simulate successfully moisture dynamics in the soil over time for the conditions of bare soil and natural cover, at a depth of 20 cm. Based on the analyzed period database it has been possible to present monthly values of soil moisture reference to investigated conditions, and thus subsidize studies of hydrological and sedimentological modeling in the region. / A região semiárida do Nordeste Brasileiro é caracterizada por apresentar variabilidade espaço-temporal das variáveis meteorológicas e hidrológicas, e nos últimos anos vem-se verificando um aumento de áreas degradadas na região em função do uso intensivo do solo e ausência de práticas de conservação. O mau uso do solo associado às variações climáticas vem desencadeando e acelerando os processos de desertificação. A caracterização da dinâmica dos processos hidrológicos e sedimentológicos nessas regiões tornam-se essenciais, uma vez que existe grande carência de um banco de dados em bacias hidrográficas do semiárido, que possam dar suporte à gestão de recursos hídricos e a conservação do solo, e fornecer subsídios para utilização de modelos e geração de cenários futuros. Dentro deste contexto a presente pesquisa visa avaliar a eficiência das práticas conservacionistas alternativas e de baixo custo na redução da perda de solo e água, bem como na manutenção da umidade do solo e dinâmica de temperatura superficial, através da investigação dos processos hidrológicos e sedimentológicos em escala de parcela sob diferentes condições de uso e cobertura vegetal em região semiárida, a fim de subsidiar ações voltadas para o manejo e conservação da água e do solo. A pesquisa foi desenvolvida no Município de Pesqueira, região Agreste do Estado de Pernambuco. A dinâmica de umidade, as perdas de água e solo foram quantificadas nas condições de: Parcela com Cobertura Natural (PCN), Parcela com solo Descoberto (PD), Parcela com Barramento de Palma forrageira (PBP) e Parcela com Cobertura Morta (PCM). Os resultados encontrados mostraram que o uso da cobertura morta em comparação ao solo descoberto promoveu redução da temperatura da superfície do solo durante o dia e acréscimo durante a noite. A cobertura morta foi eficiente na redução do escoamento superficial e no controle da erosão. O uso do barramento com palma forrageira apresentou eficiência na redução da perda de solo, e mostrou ser uma técnica conservacionista promissora para a região. Dentre as condições de coberturas avaliadas, a parcela com solo descoberto foi a que apresentou a maior correlação entre a precipitação e o escoamento superficial. De forma geral a parcela com barramento de palma forrageira (PBP) apresentou níveis de umidade acima dos demais tratamentos, mostrando-se ser um sistema de captação in situ eficiente para as condições locais avaliadas, principalmente após o estabelecimento da chuva. A estabilidade temporal da umidade foi identificada, e os pontos estáveis apresentaram boa correlação com a média global, com coeficientes de determinação (R²) superiores a 0,90, podendo os mesmos ser utilizados de forma precisa na estimativa da umidade do solo em medições futuras. O modelo Hydrus-1D foi capaz de simular de forma satisfatória a dinâmica de umidade no solo ao longo do tempo para as condições de solo descoberto e cobertura natural, na profundidade de 20 cm. Com base no banco de dados do período analisado foi possível apresentar valores mensais de referência da umidade do solo para condições investigadas, e desta forma subsidiar estudos de modelagem hidrológica e sedimentológica na região.

SMHI:s hydrologiska prognos- och varningstjänst använder sig av meteorologiska ensembleprognoser som indata i hydrologiska modeller. De hydrologiskaensembleprognoserna tar därmed hänsyn till framtida osäkerhet i temperatur och nederbördoch används som underlag vid utfärdandet av risker och varningar för höga flöden. För närvarande beaktas dock inte osäkerheten i modellens starttillstånd, vilket består av de tillståndsvariabler i modellen som beskriver bland annat markvattenhalt och snötäcke. I dennastudie undersöktes hur starttillståndet i den hydrologiska modellen HYPE inverkar på prognoser i syfte att kvantifiera osäkerheten och på sikt möjliggöra säkrare prognoser.Studien hade tre mål: 1) Ta fram ett förslag på hur starttillståndet kan varieras för att ge en god uppskattning av prognososäkerheten relaterat till det hydrologiska starttillståndet. 2) Undersöka sambandet mellan starttillståndens spridning och det hydrologiska prognosfelet. 3) Analysera hur årstider, avrinningsområdens area, sjöprocent, skogsprocent och höjd över havet inverkar på prognososäkerheten. En central hypotes var att mindre skillnad mellan starttillståndets vattenföring och den observerade vattenföringen vid prognosstart resulterar i mer träffsäkra prognoser. Studien begränsades av att starttillstånden endast genererades med hjälp av störningar i drivdata.Indata till HYPE-modellen var femton temperatur- och nederbördsserier som manipulerats i syfte att skapa en ensemble av olika starttillstånd. Denna ensemble användes sedan för att göra vattenföringsprognoser med observerad temperatur och nederbörd som drivdata. Studien omfattade 76 avrinningsområden från hela Sverige med data för perioden 1999-2008. Prognoser utfördes varje dygn och ensemblespridningen utvärderades 2, 4 och 10 dygn in i prognosen. Samma utvärderingar utfördes även på autoregressiva prognoser, vilket innebär att modellerad rättas utefter observerad vattenföring.Resultaten indikerade ett samband mellan ensemblespridning och prognosfel, vilket innebär att spridning kan användas som ett mått på starttillståndets osäkerhet. Prognosfelet korrelerade positivt med skogsprocent och negativt med avrinningsområdenas area, sjöprocent och höjd över havet. Samma samband uppvisades mellan dessa områdesvariableroch spridning. Spridningen var störst på vintern och våren då normalisering skett med medelvattenföring över tio år, och under vår och sommar då normalisering skett med medelvattenföring per månad. Hypotesen att mindre skillnad mellan starttillståndets vattenföring och den observerade vattenföringen vid prognosstart resulterar i mer träffsäkraprognoser bekräftades av resultaten. Implementering av en ensemble av olika starttillstånd i operationella prognoser vid SMHIs hydrologiska prognos- och varningstjänst föreslås i syfte att kvantifiera osäkerheten och därigenom utöka bedömningsunderlaget vid utfärdande av risker och varningar. / The Hydrological Forecast and Warning Service of The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) use meteorological ensemble forecasts as input in hydrological models. The hydrological ensemble forecasts take the uncertainty of future temperature and precipitation into account and serve as the basis of issued risks and warnings of high flows. Currently not considered is the uncertainty of the initial state, which consists of state variables in the model describing for instance soil water content and snow pack. This study assessed the impact of the initial state on forecasts in the hydrological model HYPE aiming to quantify the uncertainty and eventually enable more accurate forecasts.There were three aims of this study : 1) Evaluate a suggestion about how the initial state can be varied to give a good estimation of forecast uncertainty related to the hydrological initial state. 2) Examine the relationship between the spread of initial states and the hydrological forecast error. 3) Analyze the impact of seasons, catchment area, lake percentage, forest percentage and elevation on forecast uncertainty. A central hypothesis was that a smaller difference between the discharge of the initial state and the observed discharge results in more accurate forecasts. A restriction of the study was that the initial states only could be generated by disturbances of forcing data in before the forecast.Input data to the HYPE model were fifteen temperature and precipitation series, manipulated to generate an ensemble of different initial states. This ensemble was then used to make discharge forecasts with observed temperature and precipitation as forcing data. The study was performed on 76 catchments all over Sweden with data from the time period 1999-2008. Forecasts were made every day and the ensemble spread was evaluated 2, 4 and 10 days into the forecast. Autoregressive forecasts where the modelled discharge is corrected after the observed discharge were executed and evaluated as well. The results indicated a relationship between ensemble spread and forecast error, which implies that the spread can be used as a measure of the uncertainty of the initial state. The forecast error and ensemble spread correlated positively to forest percentage and negatively to catchment area, lake percentage and elevation. The same trend was detected between spread and catchment characteristics. The spread was biggest in winter and spring when normalization was made with mean discharge for the ten-year period and in spring and summer when normalization was done with mean discharge per month. The hypothesis that a smaller difference between the discharge of the initial state and the observed discharge results in more accurate forecasts was confirmed by the results. An implementation of an ensemble of different initial states in operational forecasts at SMHI’s Hydrological Forecast and Warning Service is suggested in order to further quantify the uncertainty of hydrological forecasts, and thereby improve the basis of judgment when issuing risks and warnings.

L'objectif général de cette thèse est axé sur l’amélioration de modèles agro-hydrologique spatialement distribués pour l’analyse d'agro-hydrosystèmes, sous contrainte de changements climatiques et anthropiques. Cette thèse est structurée autour de trois questions de recherche liées à : i) la représentation de la dynamique spatio-temporelle des systèmes de cultures pour leur utilisation en entrée de modèles agro-hydrologiques distribués ; ii) la représentation du niveau exploitation agricole et des décisions des agriculteurs dans les modèles agro-hydrologiques distribués ; iii) la capacité de ces modèles à simuler des changements climatiques et anthropiquesDes éléments de réponse à ces questions sont apportés par des approches de modélisation réalisées dans différents contextes et à différentes échelles d’espace et de temps. Ces différentes approches sont discutées en les comparant notamment avec d’autres travaux réalisés. Ces différentes études soulèvent la nécessité de développer des méthodologies permettant i) d’une part l’acquisition de données et leur intégration dans les modèles agro-hydrologiques distribués ii) et d’autre part l’amélioration de l’exploitation des simulations, notamment pour les transformer en informations pertinentes et accessibles pour les parties prenantes au niveau d’un territoire. Des perspectives, portant à la fois sur la prise en compte des incertitudes des simulations des modèles agro-hydrologiques et l’analyse de la robustesse de ces modèles, sont également considérées. / The general objective of this thesis is to improve spatially distributed agro-hydrological models for agro-hydrosystems analysis, under climatic and anthropogenic changes, in order to contribute to the identification of levers of action to mitigate effects of non-point source agricultural pollution. This thesis is structured around three research questions related to: i) the representation of spatio-temporal dynamics of cropping systems for their use as input in distributed agro-hydrological models; ii) the representation of farm level and decisions of farmers in distributed agro-hydrological models; and iii) the ability of these models to simulate climate and anthropogenic changes.Elements of response to these questions are provided by modeling approaches carried out in different contexts and at different scales of space and time. These approaches are discussed by comparing them with other works carried out. These different studies raise the need to develop methodologies allowing (i) the acquisition of data and their integration in distributed agro-hydrological models (ii) and, the improvement of the use of simulations results, in particular to transform them into relevant and accessible information for stakeholders at territorial level. Perspectives, covering both uncertainties of the simulations of the agro-hydrological models and the analysis of the robustness of these models, are also considered

Mangrove ecosystems thrive in (sub)tropical, intertidal areas where adaptations<p>like vivipary and the hydrochorous dispersal of propagules become an absolute<p>necessity. As propagule dispersal and early growth allow for the replenishment of<p>existing stands and colonization of new habitats, many authors recognize the<p>importance of these stages in structuring mangrove populations and communities.<p>However, when it comes to the actual propagule dispersal and recruitment<p>mechanisms, there is an apparent lacuna in the current understanding of<p>mangrove ecology. The period between the mature propagule falling from the<p>parental mangrove tree and the early growth of the established seedling, under<p>various possible circumstances, remains in the dark. In this study we focus on this<p>particular period by investigating both the places where these propagules end up<p>as the pathways their dispersal units follow. And we go one step further.<p><p>Mangrove forests are being destroyed worldwide at a threatening pace despite<p>their tremendous asset to coastal human communities and associated biological<p>species. The effect of human-induced (cutting and mangrove conversion to<p>aquaculture ponds) as well as indirectly and/or ‘naturally’ evolving disturbances<p>(sea level rise) on propagule hydrochory occupies an important place in this study.<p><p>Dispersal of water-buoyant propagules of the family Rhizophoraceae and<p>Acanthaceae (now including the Avicenniaceae) was studied in Gazi Bay (Kenya),<p>Galle and the Pambala-Chilaw Lagoon Complex (Sri Lanka). The study sites<p>differ both in tidal regime and vegetation structure, covering an interesting variety<p>of ecological settings to examine propagule dispersal. Field data and experiments<p>ranging from micro/ mesotopographical measurements and successive propagule<p>counts to hydrodynamic and propagule dispersal experiments were collected or<p>executed in situ.<p><p>Two main methodological approaches were employed. Firstly, the question on<p>mechanisms of propagule recruitment was addressed by statistically investigating<p>the effect of microtopography, top soil texture and above-ground-root complexes on<p>the stranding and self-planting of propagules (Chapter 2&3). Afterwards,<p>suitability maps were created using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to<p>assess whether a particular mangrove stand has the ability to succesfully<p>rejuvenate. Furthermore, the effect of degradation (tree cutting) (Chapter 2&3),<p>sea level rise (Chapter 2&4) and microtopography-altering burrowing activities of<p>the mangrove mud lobster Thalassina anomala (Chapter 3), was incoporated in the<p>GIS-analyses. Secondly, the combined set-up of hydrodynamic modelling and<p>ecological dispersal modelling was developed to simulate propagule dispersal<p>pathways influenced by dispersal vectors (tidal flow, fresh water discharge, wind),<p>trapping agents (retention by vegetation or aerial root complexes) and seed<p>characteristics (buoyancy, obligated dispersal period) (Chapter 5&6). This type of<p>approach provided the possibility to explore propagule dispersal within its<p>ecological context, but was also applied to an implication of shrimp pond area<p>restoration (Pambala-Chilaw Lagoon Complex, Sri Lanka) (Chapter 5) and to<p>evaluate changes in propagule dispersal when sea level rises (Gazi Bay, Kenya)<p>(Chapter 6).<p><p>The main findings regarding propagule recruitment indicate that propagules are<p>not distributed equally or randomly within a mangrove stand, yet species-specific<p>distribution for anchorage occurs. Characteristics of the environment<p>(microtopography, top soil texture and above-ground root complex) influence<p>propagule recruitment in a way that complex root systems (e.g. pencil roots and<p>prop roots) facilitate the entanglement of dispersal units and a more compact soil<p>texture (like clay and silt) and a predominant flat topography creates suitable<p>areas for stranding and self-planting of propagules. This combines effects of<p>existing vegetation and abiotic factors on mangrove propagule establishment.<p>Since propagule dispersal is not solely determined by species-specific propagule<p>characteristics (e.g. buoyancy, longevity, etc.), I emphasize that propagule sorting<p>by hydrochory has to be viewed within its ecological context. Propagule retention<p>by vegetation and wind as a dispersal vector, deserve a prominent role in studies<p>on propagule dispersal. The significance of dense vegetation obstructing long<p>distance dispersal (LDD in its definition of this work), mainly in inner mangrove<p>zones, supports our main finding that propagule dispersal is largely a short<p>distance phenomenon. ‘Largely’ is here understood as quantitatively, not<p>excluding epic colonization events of rare but important nature.<p>In accordance with the Tidal Sorting Hypothesis (TSH) of Rabinowitz (1978a),<p>smaller, oval-shaped propagules were found to disperse over larger distances than<p>bigger, torpedo-shaped propagules. We can however not fully support the TSH<p>because (1) these differences are no longer valid when comparing between torpedoshaped<p>propagules of different sizes and (2) propagule dispersal is not always<p>directed towards areas more inland, but can be strongly concentrated towards the<p>edges of lagoons and channels<p><p>Anthropogenic pressure on mangrove ecosystems, more specifically clear-felling or<p>mangrove conversion to aquaculture ponds, imposes limitations on propagule<p>recruitment due to reduced propagule availability and a decrease in suitable<p>stranding areas where the architecture of certain root complexes, like prop roots<p>and pencil roots, function as propagule traps. These types of pressure appear to<p>have more severe consequences on propagule dispersal than the effect of sea level<p>rise on mangroves. Mangrove forests, which are not situated in an obviously<p>vulnerable setting, can be resilient to a relative rise in sea level if a landward shift<p>of vegetation assemblages and successful early colonization is not obstructed by<p>human-induced pressures. Also, and this renders mangrove forests vulnerable in<p>spite of their intrinsic resilience, when the ‘capital’ of forest is severely reduced or<p>impoverished as happens extensively worldwide, the ‘interest’ on this capital,<p>understood as propagule availability, delivery and trapping, will not allow them to<p>efficiently cope with sea level rise, putting sustainability of mangrove ecosystem<p>services and goods at risk.<p><p>In a larger framework of mangrove vegetation dynamics, knowledge on propagule<p>dispersal will benefit management strategies for the conservation of mangroves<p>worldwide, besides its fundamental interest to fully fathom the ecology of this<p>particular marine-terrestrial ecotone formation. / Doctorat en Sciences / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

L'objectif de la thèse est d'améliorer la compréhension des processus hydrologiques lors des événements de crues éclair. Se basant sur un modèle existant (MARINE), l'étude se concentre sur les processus internes au sol. Une étape préliminaire permet, à partir de l'analyse des données, de confirmer l'activité du socle rocheux durant les crues éclair. Une analyse structurelle de MARINE est réalisée, afin de connaître la sensibilité des flux de subsurface aux choix structurels. Une nouvelle modélisation, plus robuste et intégrant explicitement une représentation des roches altérées, est mise en place. Supposant des chemins préférentiels à l'interface sol/roche, le modèle donne une bonne reproduction des bassins sédimentaires. Sur les bassins granitiques, il sous-estime les récessions et, en conséquence, les éventuels seconds pics de crue, montrant la nécessité de représenter des flux significatifs sur ces bassins, y compris dans la zone altérée. / The purpose of this thesis is to improve the knowledge of hydrological processes during flash flood events using rainfall-runoff modelling. The project focuses on hydrological processes occurring into soil and subsoil horizons. A preliminary data analysis corroborates the activity of the weathered bedrock during flash floods. The hydrological response, simulated by the MARINE model, is then investigated to detect the sensitivity of subsurface flow processes to model assumptions. It leads to several modifications of the model structure in order to make it more robust. Moreover a two-layered soil column is implemented to explicitly integrate the activity of the weathered bedrock into the model. Assuming preferential path flows at the soil-bedrock interface, the model performs well on sedimentary watersheds, but underestimate recession curves and second flood peaks on granitic ones, showing the need to simulate as well significantcontribution from the weathered bedrock.

Der Landschaftswasserhaushalt stellt die Integrationsebene der Geokomponenten Klima, Boden und Landnutzung dar und unterliegt aktuell einer intensiven Forschungstätigkeit. Die charakteristische Ausprägung des Landschaftswasserhaushaltes ist in der mitteleuropäischen Kulturlandschaft das Ergebnis einer von vielfältigen Triebkräften bestimmten komplexen Nutzung. Diese existierenden Nutzungsansprüche werden aber nicht gezielt zur Optimierung des Landschaftswasserhaushaltes koordiniert, da die handelnden Akteure teils völlig gegensätzlichen Zielrichtungen verfolgen. Insgesamt gesehen bietet die Optimierung der nicht besiedelten Landfläche auf Grund ihrer großen Flächeninanspruchnahme die größten Potentiale der Beeinflussung des Landschaftswasserhaushaltes. In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden mit der hydrologischen Modellierung und der funktionalen Landschaftsbewertung zwei völlig unterschiedliche methodische Ansätze zur Analyse hydrologischer Prozesse im Landschaftswasserhaushalt genutzt, um die Reaktion des Wasserhaushaltes auf Landschaftsveränderungen zu untersuchen. Es wird am Beispiel eines Flusseinzugsgebietes im Erzgebirge gezeigt, inwieweit sich durch ein Niederschlag-Abfluss-Modell Änderungen im Wasserhaushalt von Landnutzungsszenarien aufzeigen lassen, die auf der Grundlage von Landschaftsbewertungsverfahren erstellt wurden. Es sollen also mittels hydrologischer Modellierung die qualitativen Resultate eines deutlich einfacher zu realisierenden Planungsverfahrens quantifiziert werden. Auf der Basis der bewerteten Landschaftsfunktionen Abflussregulationsfunktion, Wassererosionswiderstand, Ertragspotential und physikochemisches Filtervermögen des Bodens wurden durch multikriterielle Optimierung mit der Software LNOPT zwei sich unterscheidende Szenarien, ein eher realistisch angelegtes Szenario (Realszenario) und ein Szenario mit möglichst hoher Retentionswirkung (Szenario Abflussminimierung) entwickelt. Beide Szenarien sind an die Realität angelehnt und nicht fiktiv, wodurch sich starke Einschränkungen hinsichtlich der optimierbaren Fläche ergeben. So stehen nur 36,5 % der Gesamtfläche zur Landnutzungsoptimierung zur Verfügung wovon nur 12,5 % der Fläche durch den Optimierungsprozess in ihrer Nutzung umgewidmet wird. Der Wasserhaushalt der entwickelten Landnutzungsszenarien wurde mit dem Wasserhaushaltssimulationsmodell WaSiM-ETH in zehn ausgewählten Teileinzugsgebieten modelliert. Die Gebietsanpassung erfolgte dabei an den Pegeln Lauenstein und Geising mit einem multi-response Ansatz, der auch Ergebnisse einer Ganglinienseparation und Vergleiche zu einer Arbeit im benachbarten Weißeritzeinzugsgebiet berücksichtigt. Im Ergebnis zeigte die Validierung eine gelungene Gebietsanpassung des Modells WaSiM-ETH mit geringen Schwächen im Winter und bei außergewöhnlichen Extremereignissen. Insgesamt zeigt sich in allen modellierten Teileinzugsgebieten ein Rückgang des Gesamtabflusses, allerdings in Größenordnungen, die sich räumlich sehr stark unterscheiden. Berechnet wurde dabei nur der Wasserhaushalt für das Szenario „Abflussminimierung“, da sich beide Szenarien in den hydrologisch ähnlichen Teileinzugsgebieten nur wenig unterscheiden. Die statistische Auswertung der Ergebnisse erfolgte mit Spearmans Rangkorrelations¬koeffizient und zeigte: • dass mit steigender Höhenlage die Möglichkeiten der Abflussminimierung durch Landnutzungsveränderungen abnehmen. Im Indikator Höhenlage spiegeln sich dabei mehrere Parameter wider, welche die sich mit der Höhe wandelnden Klima-, Boden- und Reliefbedingungen ausdrücken. • dass mögliche Abflussminderungen mit dem Ackeranteil eines Einzugsgebietes positiv signifikant korreliert sind. Die Abflussminderungspotentiale steigen also mit steigendem Ackeranteil an. • dass die absolute Niederschlagsmenge keinen direkten Einfluss auf die Abflussminderung hat, vielmehr ist die jährliche Niederschlagsverteilung bedeutsam für die Möglichkeiten des Wasserrückhaltes in der Fläche. Als Voraussetzung für die erfolgreiche Anwendung von LNOPT im Rahmen hydrologischer Fragestellungen sind die Berücksichtigung beziehungsweise Bearbeitung folgender Punkte: • Ermittlung der hydrologischen Senkenpotentiale zu Beginn des Planungsprozesses um sich auf Gebiete mit hohem hydrologischen Senkenpotential zu konzentrieren, • Planung von Landnutzungsveränderungen hinsichtlich Nutzungstyp, Nutzungsart oder Nutzungsintensität anhand von Bewertungsverfahren, welche die hydrologischen Differenzen gut widerspiegeln, • Einbeziehung der handelnden Akteure in den Planungsprozess um die möglichst vollständige Umsetzung der geplanten Maßnahmen zu ermöglichen. Mit der vorliegenden Arbeit wird gezeigt, dass im Mittelgebirgsraum Abflussminderungspotentiale im Zuge von Landnutzungsveränderungen vorhanden sind, diese aber regional sehr stark differenziert ausgeprägt sind. Methodisch konnte demonstriert werden, dass das eingesetzte Verfahren der multikriteriellen Landnutzungsoptimierung zur Planungsunterstützung im Rahmen hydrologischer Fragestellungen genutzt werden kann, wenn die genannten Rahmenbedingungen beachtet werden. / The hydrological balance of a landscape integrates different geocomponents such as climate, soil and land use and is an object of intensive research activities. The specific characteristic of the hydrological balance of a landscape shows the result of a complex utilisation system which is caused by manifold driving forces. Due to different strategic objectives of thestakeholders, their demands are contrasting and therefore it is very difficult to coordinate these demands with respect to influencing the hydrological balance of a landscape. Changes of land use in non-settled areas have the highest potential of modifying the hydrological balance of a landscape due to the large extent of affected area. In this thesis two different methodical approaches are used to analyse the hydrological processes in the water balance of a landscape in order to investigate the effects of land use changes on the hydrological balance of a landscape. The applied methods are hydrological modelling and functional landscape assessment. Hydrological modelling quantifies the water balance of scenarios made by a much easier to realise planning method on the basis of a functional landscape assessment. Land use scenarios on the basis of a functional landscape assessment can be build through a multi-criteria optimisation process using the software LNOPT (“land use op-timisation”). By using this method, the hydrological balance of a landscape and the specific local conditions are described by the following landscape functions: runoff regulation, resistance against water erosion, biotic yield potential and physical-chemical cleaning potential of soils. On the basis of the assessment of these landscape functions, two land use scenarios were developed using the method of multi-criteria optimisation, namely, a more realistic scenario and one with the highest possible water retention potential. Even though both scenarios are different in their closeness to reality, they are both inspired by reality and not just fictitious. Due to different restrictions only 36.5 % of the entire catchment area could be used in the optimisation process. In the scenario with the highest possible water retention potential only 12.5 % of the land use was changed and in the more realistic scenario the changes were slightly smaller. The water balance simulation model WaSiM-ETH is well suited to quantify changes in the hydrological balance in the context of land-use changes at the meso-scale. The adaptations to the catchment area characteristics were done by the calibration on the gauges Lauenstein and Geising in a multi response approach considering results of a hydrograph curve separation and the results of a research in the neighbouring Weisseritz catchment. The validation shows a successful adaptation to the regional catchment area characteristics with minor shortcomings in winter and by extraordinary high precipitation events. In the whole investigated area possible changes of the hydrological balance are rather negligible due to only small land use changes. But in 10 selected subcatchments the hydrological modelling shows a decrease of discharge in the scenario with the highest possible water retention potential. The dimensions of the decrease in the discharge are regionally very different due to varying spatial characteristics. These differences get systemised through a statistical analysis using the Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient. The following correlations were found: • The possibilities of a decrease in discharge through land use modification are getting smaller with an increase in altitude. The complex indicator “altitude” contains different parameters which reflect the shifting of climatic, soil and relief conditions with changing altitude. • The possibilities of a decrease in discharge are getting higher with the percentage of arable land in the subcatchments. • The amount of precipitation has no direct influence of the possible decrease in discharge in the subcatchments. The influence of the annual variation of precipitation is larger than the absolute annual amount of precipitation. For a successful application of LNOPT for the development of land use scenarios with a hydrologic context the following requirements have to be considered: • ahead of the planning process, pedological and geological potentials of the investigated area in terms of a decrease in discharge should be investigated • landscape functions which show hydrological differences in terms of land use types, the kind and the intensity of land use should be used • local steak holders should be integrated in the planning process to ensure the complete implementation of the planned measures as much as possible. In this thesis it could be shown that mountainous regions have a potential for a decrease in discharge caused by a land use change, but with substantial regional variations. The evaluation of the used methods demonstrated that the multi-criteria optimisation software LNOPT is well suited to support hydrological related planning processes if conditions mentioned above are considered.

Pollution of surface and groundwater, due to improper land management, has become a major problem worldwide. Integrated watershed modelling provides a tool for the understanding of the processes governing water and matter transport at different scales within the watershed. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been successfully utilized for the combined modelling of water fluxes and quality within a large range of scales and environmental conditions across the world. For suitable assessments integrated watershed models require large data sets of measured information for both model parameterization as for model calibration and validation. Data scarcity represents a serious limitation to the use of hydrologic models for supporting decision making processes, and may lead unsupported statements, poor statistics, misrepresentations, and, ultimately, to inappropriate measures for integrated water resources management efforts. In particular, the importance of spatially distributed soil information is often overlooked. In this thesis the eco-hydrological SWAT model was been applied to assess the water balance and diffuse pollution loadings of two rivers within a rural context at the mesoscale watershed level: 1) the Western Bug River, Ukraine, 2) the Águeda River, Portugal. Both watersheds in focus serve as examples for areas where the amount and quality of the measured data hinders a strait forward hydrologic modelling assessment. The Dobrotvir watershed (Western Bug River, Ukriane) is an example of such a region. In the former Soviet Union, soil classification primarily focused on soils of agricultural importance, whereas, forested, urban, industrial, and shallow soil territories were left underrepresented in the classification systems and resulting soil maps. Similarly the forest-dominated Águeda watershed in North-Central Portugal is a second example of a region with serious soil data availability limitations. Through the use of pedotransfer functions (PTFs) and the construction of soil-landscape models the data gaps could be successfully diminished, allowing a subsequent integrated watershed modelling approach. A valuable tool for the data gap closure was the fuzzy logic Soil Land Inference Model (SoLIM) which, combined with information from several soil surveys, was used to create improved maps. In the Dobrotvir watershed the fuzzy approach was used to close the gaps of the existing soil map, while in the Águeda watershed a new soil properties map, based upon the effective soil depths of the landscape, was constructed. While the water balance simulation in both study areas was successful, a calibration parameter ensemble approach was tested for the Águeda watershed. In the common modelling practice the individual best simulation and best parameter set is considered, the tested approach involved merging individual model outputs from numerous acceptable parameter sets, tackling the problematic of parameter equifinality. This procedure was tested for both original soil map and the newly derived soil map with differentiation of soil properties. It was noticeable that a better model set-up, with a better representation of the soil spatial distribution, was reflected in tighter model output spreads and narrower parameter distances. A further challenge was the calibration of water quality parameters, namely nitrate-N in the Dobrotvir watershed and sediment loads in the Águeda watershed. The limited amount of water quality observations were handled by assessing and by process verification at the smallest modelling unit, the hydrological response unit (HRU). The ruling hydrological processes could be depicted by combining own measured data and modelling outputs. The management scenario simulations showed the anticipated response to changes in management and reflected the rational spatial variation within the watershed reasonably well. The impacts of the different intervention options were evaluated on water balance, nitrate-N export and sediment yield at the watershed, sub-watershed and, when feasible, HRU level. This thesis covers two regional case studies with particular data limitations and specific processes of water and matter fluxes. Still, data reliability is a problem across the globe. This thesis demonstrates how relevant it is to tackle shortages of spatially differentiated soil information. The considered approaches contribute toward more reliable model predictions. Furthermore, the tested methods are transferable to other regions with differing landscape and climate conditions with similar problems of data scarcity, particularly soil spatially differentiated information.

As research has expanded on the environmental impact of stormwater on receiving ecosystems more focus is now being put on the quality issues of stormwater. Biofilters are one of many nature-based solutions that have been developed for that purpose and are also the subject of this study. In order to plan and implement biofilters, predictive models can be useful tools to forecast their performance on a given site. The aim of this study was to investigate the possibilities and limitations of modelling the treatment of stormwater in a biofilter using MIKE+. This was done by first trying to model the hydrological conditions of a biofilter from a study site in Sundsvall and thereafter coupling a water treatment model created in ECO Lab.  The results showed that there were some notable differences between the parameters affecting the hydrological flow in reality and what is currently possible to model in MIKE+. It was seen that the Soakaway node used to model biofilters needs to be complexified in order to properly model the hydrological conditions of biofilters. The main improvements required are that the flow attenuation should occur within the Soakaway node rather than before or after and that it should be based on soil properties. The retention volume also needs to be integrated in the node and a varying exfiltration rate is believed to be required to fit the varying nature of evapotranspiration.  The hydrological model was seen to have a great impact on the water treatment model and some limitations with the program and the used model were identified. Regarding ECO Lab, the program is currently unable to consider interevent processes when the biofilter is empty. These processes can however be of great importance for some contaminants. The program also assumes a time dependency whereas it has been seen that a short retention time may be sufficient to achieve good reduction efficiency. The model used is a highly lumped conceptual model with few parameters so further research aiming at the creation of correction factors for the main affecting parameters is believed to be required in order to avoid design specific calibration. Calibration should also occur over a longer time period in order to consider the variability of stormwater. / I takt med att forskningen kring dagvattens miljöpåverkan på mottagande ekosystem avancerats har hanteringen av dagvatten gått från att enbart fokusera på dess kvantitet till att även fokusera på dess kvalitet. Biofilter är en av flera naturbaserade lösningar som utvecklats för detta ändamål. För att kunna planera och implementera biofilter kan prediktiva modeller vara användbara verktyg för att förutse deras prestanda i ett tilltänkt område. Syftet med denna studie var att undersöka möjligheterna att modellera dagvattenreningen i ett biofilter med hjälp av MIKE+. Detta gjordes genom att först försöka modellera de hydrologiska förhållandena i ett biofilter från ett studieområde i Sundsvall och därefter koppla en vattenreningsmodell skapad i ECO Lab.  Resultatet visade att det finns några märkbara skillnader mellan de parametrar som påverkar det hydrologiska flödet i biofilter i verkligheten och vad som för närvarande är möjligt att modellera i MIKE+. Det visades att Soakaway-noden som används för att modellera biofilter behöver utvecklas för att kunna modellera de hydrologiska förhållandena på ett korrekt sätt. De främsta förbättringar som krävs är att flödesdämpningen bör ske inom Soakaway-noden snarare än innan eller efter och att denna flödesdämpning bör baseras på filtrets markegenskaper. Retentionsvolymen behöver dessutom integreras i noden och en varierande exfiltrationshastighet tros krävas för att kunna ta hänsyn till hur evapotranspiration varierar över tid.  Den hydrologiska modellen sågs ha stor inverkan på vattenreningsmodellen och vissa begränsningar kunde visas hos programmet och den använda modellen. När det gäller ECO Lab kan programmet för närvarande inte ta hänsyn till processer mellan event när biofiltret är tomt. Dessa processer kan dock ha stor betydelse för vissa föroreningar. Programmet förutsätter också ett tidsberoende trots att forskning visat att en kort uppehållstid kan vara tillräcklig för att uppnå god reningseffekt. Modellen som används är en mycket enkel konceptuell modell med få parametrar så vidare forskning rekommenderas med syfte att skapa korrektionsfaktorer för att bättre ta hänsyn till de viktigaste reningsfaktorer och undvika platsspecifik kalibrering. Kalibreringen bör även ske under en längre tidsperiod för att ta hänsyn till variationerna i dagvatten.

Estimating the impact of different sources of uncertainty along the modelling chain is an important skill graduates are expected to have. Broadly speaking, educators can cover uncertainty in hydrological modelling by differentiating uncertainty in data, model parameters and model structure. This provides students with insights on the impact of uncertainties on modelling results and thus on the usability of the acquired model simulations for decision making. A survey among teachers in the Earth and environmental sciences showed that model structural uncertainty is the least represented uncertainty group in teaching. This paper introduces a computational exercise that introduces students to the basics of model structure uncertainty through two ready-to-use modelling experiments. These experiments require either Matlab or Octave, and use the open-source Modular Assessment of Rainfall-Runoff Models Toolbox (MARRMoT) and the open-source Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies (CAMELS) data set. The exercise is short and can easily be integrated into an existing hydrological curriculum, with only a limited time investment needed to introduce the topic of model structure uncertainty and run the exercise. Two trial applications at the Technische Universität Dresden (Germany) showed that the exercise can be completed in two afternoons or four 90 min sessions and that the provided setup effectively transfers the intended insights about model structure uncertainty.

Tesis por compendio / [ES] Los Pavimentos Permeables (PP) son una técnica de los denominados Sistemas Urbanos de Drenaje Sostenible (SUDS). A diferencia de otras técnicas de este tipo, proporciona una superficie dura transitable a la vez que gestiona las aguas pluviales superficiales, siendo sus propiedades hidráulicas fundamentales para su rendimiento como SUDS. Esta tesis explora el rendimiento hidráulico de los PP, basándose en el modelo hidrológico-hidráulico de PP proporcionado en el ampliamente utilizado Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). La tesis se presenta en un formato de tres artículos. Así, tras una aproximación a la pregunta general de investigación dada en el primer capítulo introductorio, el segundo capítulo del documento analiza qué parámetros son los más influyentes y cuáles son despreciables en el modelo, proporcionando un análisis de sensibilidad general. El siguiente capítulo explora la relación entre el modelo de PP de SWMM y el modelo de número de curva (CN), ampliamente utilizado, en lo que respecta a la escorrentía deducida por ambos modelos en función de la permeabilidad del pavimento. En el cuarto capítulo se analiza la respuesta del PP en condiciones experimentales controladas y se compara con el modelo de PP dado en SWMM. Tras una discusión general de los resultados en el quinto capítulo, se ofrecen unas conclusiones generales en el último. La tesis profundiza en el conocimiento del comportamiento hidráulico de los PP para ayudar a profesionales e investigadores en su caracterización. / [CA] Els Paviments Permeables (PP) són una tècnica dels denominats Sistemes Urbans de Drenatge Sostenible (SUDS). A diferència d'altres tècniques d'aquest tipus, proporciona una superfície dura transitable alhora que gestiona les aigües pluvials superficials, sent les seues propietats hidràuliques fonamentals per al seu rendiment com SUDS. Aquesta tesi explora el rendiment hidràulic dels PP, basant-se en el model hidrològic-hidràulic de PP proporcionat en l'àmpliament utilitzat Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). La tesi es presenta en un format de tres articles. Així, després d'una aproximació a la pregunta general d'investigació donada en el primer capítol introductori, el segon capítol del document analitza quins paràmetres són els més influents i quins són menyspreables en el model, proporcionant una anàlisi de sensibilitat general. El següent capítol explora la relació entre el model de PP de SWMM i el model de número de corba (CN), àmpliament utilitzat, pel que fa a l'escolament deduït per tots dos models en funció de la variable permeabilitat del paviment. En el quart capítol s'analitza la resposta del PP en condicions experimentals controlades i es compara amb el model de PP donat en SWMM. Després d'una discussió general dels resultats en el cinqué capítol, s'ofereixen unes conclusions generals en l'últim. La tesi aprofundix en el coneixement del comportament hidràulic dels PP per a ajudar a professionals i investigadors en la seua caracterització. / [EN] Permeable Pavements (PP) are a Sustainable Urban Drainage System (SUDS) technique. Unlike other such techniques, it provides a transitable hard surface while managing surface stormwater, being its hydraulic properties fundamental for its performance as a SUDS. This dissertation explores the hydraulic performance of PPs, based on the hydrologic-hydraulic model of PP provided in the widely used Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The dissertation is presented in a \textit{three-paper} format. Accordingly, after an approach to the general research question given in the first introductory chapter, the second chapter of the document analyses which parameters are the most influential and which are negligible in the model by providing a general sensitivity analysis. The next chapter explores the relation between the PP model from SWMM and the widely used Curve Number (CN) model regarding runoff generated by both models and examines the relationship between both approaches based on the pavement permeability variable. The fourth chapter analyses the PP response under controlled experimental conditions and compares it with the PP model given in SWMM. After a general discussion of the results in the fifth chapter, general conclusions are given in the last chapter. The dissertation deepens the understanding of the hydraulic behaviour of PPs to help practitioners and researchers with its characterisation. / Madrazo Uribeetxebarria, E. (2023). Modelling the Hydraulic Response of Permeable Pavements: a Numerical and Experimental Approach for Model Comparison and Sensitivity Analysis to Design Parameters [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/196085 / Compendio