This thesis focuses on the relationship between short-term interest rate and stock prices. The main idea is that if interest-rate increases, it makes holding stocks less attractive relative to fixed income securities. Therefore, investors change the structure of their portfolios and switch capital from stocks to banks, which results in stock prices decrease. In our thesis, we apply GJR-GARCH-t-M model to study the impact of Czech interest rate (14-day PRIBOR) on the Prague Stock Exchange (the PX index). In contrast to the majority of research on this topic, we have found no impact of the PRIBOR rate on the PX index- neither on its mean nor on its volatility. We attribute the absence of a significant relationship to exceptional composition of the PX index. Furthermore, we have found that the recent crisis has significantly changed the behavior of the Czech stock market.

Studier om oljepriser och finansiella marknader är relativt få i jämförelse med de studier som finns om förhållandet mellan oljepriser och makroekonomiska variabler. Olja betraktas som en av de viktigaste produktionsfaktorerna, vilket innebär att förändringar i oljepriser påverkar företags kostnader och därmed aktiemarknaden. Att studera förhållandet mellan oljepris och aktiemarknader är av vikt för ett flertal intressenter, bland annat investerare, banker ochportföljförvaltare. Investerare får till exempel svårigheter att maximera aktieavkastning om de inte förstår sambandet mellan oljepris och finansiella marknader. I studien analyserades förhållandet mellan oljepris och den svenska aktiemarknaden med koppling till ränta och växelkurs. Studien baserades på en kvantitativ undersökning med deduktiv ansats, utifrån data över tidsperioden 1991 till 2016. De statistiska tester som genomfördes var en korrelationsanalys, en bivariat och en multipel regressionsanalys. Resultaten visade att det finns ett positivt förhållande mellan oljepris och den svenskaaktiemarknaden. Vidare observerades ett negativt förhållande mellan ränta och den svenska aktiemarknaden och ett positivt förhållande mellan växelkurs och den svenska aktiemarknaden. Studiens första hypotes gällande de grundläggande variablerna förkastades eftersom det ursprungliga antagandet var att ett negativt förhållande skulle råda mellan oljepris och aktiemarknaden i Sverige. Däremot visade studien stöd för resterande två hypoteser. Studiens resultat är inte applicerbart på alla aktiemarknader utan kan begränsas tillbörser i oljeimporterande, utvecklade länder med liknande ekonomisk och politisk struktur som i Sverige. Vidare forskning inom området är nödvändig. Framtida studier bör inkludera fler variabler och ha större fokus på de bakomliggande orsakerna till förändringar i oljepris och deras eventuella koppling till aktiemarknader. Det kan även vara av värde att inkluderasocioekonomiska och politiska faktorer och undersöka oljeprisets effekt inom olika branscher och sektorer på aktiemarknaden. / Studies on oil prices and financial markets are relatively few in comparison to the studies on the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic variables. Oil is considered to be one of the main production factors, which means that changes in oil prices affect corporate costs and thus the stock market. Studies of the relationship between oil price and stock markets areimportant for a number of stakeholders, including investors, banks and portfolio managers. For example, investors get difficulties in maximizing share returns if they do not understand the correlation between oil prices and financial markets.In the study, the relationship between oil prices and the Swedish stock market and its connection with interest rates and exchange rates was analyzed. The study was based on a quantitative survey with a deductive approach, with data over the period 1991 to 2016. The statistical tests conducted were a correlation analysis, a bivariate and a multiple regression analysis. The results showed that there is a positive relationship between oil prices and theSwedish stock market. Furthermore, a negative relationship between interest rates and the Swedish stock market was observed and also a positive relationship between the exchange rate and the Swedish stock market. The study's first hypothesis regarding the basic variables was rejected, since the original assumption was that a negative ratio would prevail between oil prices and the Swedish stock market. On the other hand, the study showed support for the remaining two hypotheses. The study's results are not applicable to all stock markets but can be limited to financial markets in oil importing, developed countries with similar economic and political structure as in Sweden. Further research in the field is necessary. Future studies should include more variables and focus more on the underlying causes of changes in oilprices and their possible links with stock markets. It may also be useful to include socioeconomic and political factors, as well as to investigate the effect of oil prices in different sectors in the stock market.

This paper studies the home-country determinants of outward FDI with a focus on nine empirically recognized host-country determinants of inward FDI, namely market size, labor cost, exchange rate, inflation, interest rate, political risks, corruption, openness, and technology. Based on a panel with 183 observations from BRICS and five developed countries (Australia, Germany, Japan, UK, US), evidence is found that market size, inflation, interest rate, political risks, and openness have significant influence on FDI outflows. Moreover, the results of this study show that there are striking differences between developing and developed countries regarding to the drivers for outward FDI.

Les recherches menées dans cette thèse se sont intéressées à l'étude des obligations convertibles (OC) sous différents angles : le premier essai analyse les motivations des dirigeants à émettre des OC. Nous avons proposé un questionnaire qui a été envoyé à des entreprises françaises et nous avons conclu que les émissions d'OC ont principalement pour objectif de réaliser une augmentation de capital différée, émettre un signal, payer un coupon moins élevé, éviter la dilution et diversifier les sources de financement. Ensuite, à travers une ACP, nous avons identifié trois groupes d'émetteurs: les entreprises motivées par les avantages que peut procurer une émission d'OC par rapport à une augmentation de capital ; les entreprises qui souhaitent s'endetter à moindre coût ; et les entreprises intéressées par la souplesse des OC pour effectuer un financement séquentiel. Dès lors que la décision d'émettre des convertibles est prise, le manager doit décider du design de son obligation. Dans le deuxième essai, nous avons cherché à identifier et analyser les facteurs qui influencent la structure de l'OC, mesurée par la proportion de fonds propres et de dette dans l'actif émis. Nous avons montré que le risque de sous-investissement, la performance opérationnelle future, le niveau de l'endettement et la concentration de l'actionnariat influencent la structure de l'OC. Dans le troisième essai, nous avons analysé l'effet du risque de défaut et de conversion sur la sensibilité de l'OC aux variations du taux d'intérêt, mesurée par sa duration. Nous avons montré que le risque de défaut et de conversion ont un effet négatif sur la duration pour la plupart des convertibles. / This thesis have focused on the study of convertible bonds (CB) from different angles: The first essay analyzes the motivations of firms to issue OC . We proposed a questionnaire that was sent to French companies and concluded that emissions of OC mainly aim to make a back-door equity increase, issue a signal, pay a lower coupon, avoid dilution and diversify financing sources. Then, through a principal component analysis, we identified three groups of issuers : companies motivated by the benefits of an OC issue compared to a capital increase; companies wishing to borrow at lower cost ; and companies interested in the flexibility of the OC to perform a sequential financing. Once the decision to issue convertible is taken, the manager have to decide the design of its bond. In the second study, we have identified and analyzed the factors that influence the structure of the OC, measured by the proportion of equity and debt. We have shown that the risk of underinvestment, future operating performance, the level of debt and the ownership concentration influence the structure of the OC. In the third essay, we analyzed the effect of default and conversion risks on the sensitivity of the OC to interest rates changes, as measured by its duration. We have shown that the risk of default and conversion have a negative effect on the duration for most convertible bonds.

Denna studies huvudsakliga syfte var att analysera sambandet mellan den svenska aktiemarknaden och guldpriset. Guldet har en viktig roll i finansmarknaden samtidigt som området saknar forskning i Sverige. Genom detta skapades ett intresse att studera aktiemarknadens samband med guldpriset i Sverige. Forskning kring aktiemarknadens samband till guldpriset är splittrad på global nivå där resultaten både kan vara negativa, positiva och en del där inget samband existerar. Studiens underliggande syfte var att analysera sambandet mellan den svenska aktiemarknaden och ränta, tillväxt och valutakurs.Studien är begränsad till att analysera kvartalsvis data inom 23 år mellan 1995 och 2018 i Sverige. Uppgifterna har sedan analyserats i en korrelationsanalys och en multipel linjär regressionsanalys. Resultaten visar att det finns ett negativt samband mellan guldpriset och aktiemarknaden. Resultatet visar också att det finns ett negativt samband mellan ränta och aktiemarknad. Studiens resultat visar också att det finns ett positivt samband mellan tillväxt och aktiemarknad. Slutligen visar resultatet att det inte finns något signifikant samband mellan valutakurs och aktiemarknad. / The main aim of this study was to analyze the relationship between gold price and the swedish stock market. Since gold has a major role in financial systems, the interest arose because of the lack of research on the gold price relationship to the stock market in Sweden. That as well as divided view of if gold price relationship is negative, positive or not related to the stock market, has created the interest. The underlying aim of the study was to analyze therelationship between interest rate, economic growth and exchange rate with the dependent variable stock market.This study was limited by analyzing quarterly data in 23 years between 1995 and 2018 on the swedish market. Data was collected and analyzed in statistical programs named Apple Numbers and SPSS. Data was analyzed in a correlation analysis and a regression analysis. The result showed that there is a negative relation between gold price and stock market. The result also shows that there is a negative relation between between interest rate and stock market. It also shows that there is a positive relation between economic growth and stockmarket. Lastly the result shows that there is no significant relation between exchange rate and stock market.

With background to recent price growth in Swedish real estate and consequently real estate stocks, our aim is to examine the relationship between real estate price development and real estate stock price development. To test our hypothesis, that real estate price development have had an impact on the return of real estate stocks, we built a capital asset pricing model. We divide the return of real estate stocks into two parts, the return in relation to the Swedish market premium and the excess return that is given for the exposure of the real estate market. We found that real estate exposure would treat the investor with an additional return beyond the return given from stock market exposure; hence, real estate price development has contributed to real estate stock returns.

Para que um operador de uma mesa proprietária de um banco consiga fornecer um preço competitivo e de forma a auferir lucro em uma operação é fundamental uma estimação adequada da estrutura a termo da taxa de juros. Afinal, cada uma dessas demandas e ofertas por liquidez exigem diferentes prazos e na grande maioria das vezes instrumentos utilizados para realizar a imunização de acordo com o prazo dessa operação não estão disponíveis para negociação no mercado financeiro. A construção de uma estrutura a termo de juros é uma forma de sintetizar em uma única curva toda a informação disponível de contratos negociáveis no mercado financeiro e que reproduzam o preço mais justo para a taxa de juros de um determinado prazo. O objetivo do presente trabalho é implementar a estimação da estrutura a termo da taxa de juros brasileira utilizando-se do método de taxas a termo constantes entre as reuniões do Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom). O algoritmo implementado deve ser capaz de resolver a estimação num tempo suficientemente rápido para que seja possível agregá-lo em um sistema de cotações de mercado em tempo real e fornecer aos operadores de mercado informações completas da curva de juros com as taxas zero cupom e as taxas a termo para cada prazo. Nesta dissertação serão apresentados detalhes da implementação do algoritmo e também do arcabouço teórico utilizado. Será apresentando também uma breve descrição da dinâmica do mercado de juros brasileiro e suas peculiaridades, além de apresentar alguns métodos de estimação da estrutura a termo comumente utilizados. / For an operator of a bank to be able to provide a competitive price and to make a profit in an operation, an adequate estimation of the term structure of the interest rate is essential. After all, each of these demands and offers for liquidity require different terms and in most cases the instruments used to carry out the immunization according to the term of this operation are not available for trading in the financial market. The construction of an interest rate term structure is a way of synthesizing in a single curve all the available information of contracts negotiable in the financial market and that best reproduces the fairer price for the interest rate of a certain term. The main purpose of this work is implement the estimation of the Brazilian term structure of interest rate using the flat forward rate method between Copom meetings. The implemented algorithm must be able to resolve the estimation in a sufficiently fast time so that it can be aggregated into a real-time market quotations system and provide to market operators information on the yield curve and forward rates. This dissertation will present the algorithm implementation in detais as well as the theoretical framework used. It will also present a brief description of the dynamics of the Brazilian interest market and its peculiarities, besides presenting some methods of estimation of the term structure commonly used.

Este trabalho tem como objetivo testar a hipótese de dominância fiscal, bem como estimar uma regra de reação fiscal para o Brasil, e é desenvolvido em duas partes. Na primeira parte investiga-se a existência de dominância fiscal no Brasil a partir de 1999 ? ano em que se inicia a fixação de metas de superávit primário pelo governo ? através de função resposta ao impulso. O resultado obtido indica que não ocorre o fenômeno da dominância fiscal no período analisado. Na segunda parte analisa-se se o comportamento da autoridade fiscal do Brasil pauta-se em alguma regra de reação fiscal. Pretende-se aferir se o governo reage a variações no nível da dívida ajustando o resultado primário, de modo a garantir a sustentabilidade da razão dívida/PIB e permitir que a política monetária seja eficaz. Para o período anterior à fixação de metas de superávit primário (1995-1998) não é possível definir uma regra de reação fiscal, pois o superávit primário não responde a mudanças na dívida pública. Para o período posterior (1999-2006), entretanto, conclui-se que o governo segue uma regra de reação fiscal, denotando preocupação em evitar a dominância fiscal, embora a especificação da regra seja distinta para os governos Fernando Henrique Cardoso e Lula. / This research, which is divided into two parts, tests the hypothesis of fiscal dominance and estimates a fiscal reaction rule for Brazil. In the first part we investigate the existence of fiscal dominance in Brazil beginning 1999 ? the starting point of primary surplus targets by the Government ? through an impulse response function. Our analysis indicates that the fiscal dominance does not apply for the concerned period. In the second part, we investigate if the Brazilian fiscal authority follows any rule of fiscal reaction. We intent to test if the Government reacts adjusting the primary surplus to debt variations, maintaining the sustainability of the debt/GDP ratio and preserving the efficacy of the monetary policy. For the period prior to the primary surplus targets (1995-1998), it?s not possible to define a rule of fiscal reaction, as the primary surplus does not respond to variations in the public debt. However, for the 1999-2006 period, we found that the Government does follow a fiscal reaction rule, highlighting the preoccupation of avoiding the fiscal dominance, even though the rule?s specification is distinct for the mandates of Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Lula.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Vania Vieira Ramos.pdf: 3565329 bytes, checksum: 41f89b0eea4fb985e067c0ad56f80b3f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-10-23 / The interest rate is one of the main instruments of monetary policy for the control of the economy, especially for that countries, like Brazil, that use the Inflaction Target System. Brazil presents one of the world's highest interest rates. This hampers the development and the heating of the economy as a whole, as the credit takers, individuals and legal entities, especially those considered "good payers", feel discouraged to seek for financial institutions, because the charge to be paid at the end of a contract of credit is exorbitant. Moreover, the inertia of high interest rates of the Brazilian banking system led foreign banks with branches here, to the same behavior of domestic banks, and this behavior does not bring stimulus to the credit, as not brought competitiveness for the Brazilian banking sector. In this regard, this work tries to make a comparative study between high interest rates used in Brazil, by private domestic and foreign banks, and public national banks, with the latter, are financial institutions that have political, economic and social conditions to drive a significant drop in interest rates and stimulate development. The first chapter is the Theoretical Framework, it sought to understand the concept of economic development and its relationship with credit. The second chapter is a historical chapter on the interest rate practiced in Brazil from 1990 to 2010. This chapter, aimed to build a history of the Brazilian interest rate, making a comparison between the interest rates charged by major private banks (domestic and foreigners) - Bradesco, Itau, Banco Santander and HSBC in Brazil, U.S., Spain and England. In this same chapter we tried to investigate what the main impacts of the practice of high interest rates on the Brazilian economy. And at the end of this chapter, held a brief study of the legal issue behind the high interest rates in place in Brazil today. The third chapter is called: National Public Banks: Solutions with Subsidized Interest Rate and Microcredit, and seeks to understand the role of public banks in the lending scenario in Brazil. To this end, we evaluated case by case, the main role of public institutions providing credit. Among the key findings, we have that foreign banks has not pushed down the interest rate as was assumed when the financial openness. This role falls to the national public banks which, in the Brazilian context, possess sufficient market power to exert influence on the final interest rate and spread, thus ensuring the efficient transmission of monetary policy / A taxa de juros é um dos principais instrumentos de Política Monetária para controle da economia, principalmente para aqueles países, como o Brasil, que utilizam o regime de Metas de Inflação. O Brasil apresenta uma das maiores taxas de juros do mundo. Isso dificulta o desenvolvimento e o aquecimento da economia como um todo, na medida em que os tomadores de crédito, tanto pessoas físicas quanto pessoas jurídicas, principalmente, aqueles considerados bons pagadores , sentem-se desestimulados a procurar as instituições financeiras, pois o encargo a ser pago ao final de um contrato de operação de crédito é exorbitante. Ademais, a inércia de juros altos do sistema bancário brasileiro levou os bancos estrangeiros, com filiais aqui, ao mesmo comportamento dos bancos nacionais e esse comportamento não trouxe nem estímulo ao crédito e nem competitividade ao setor bancário brasileiro. Neste sentido, este trabalho busca fazer um estudo comparativo entre as altas taxas de juros praticadas no Brasil, pelos bancos nacionais e estrangeiros privados e os bancos nacionais públicos, sendo que estes últimos, são as instituições financeiras que têm condições políticas, econômicas e sociais de conduzir uma queda considerável na taxa de juros e estimular o desenvolvimento. O primeiro capítulo é o Referencial Teórico, nele procurou-se entender o conceito de desenvolvimento econômico e a sua relação com o crédito. O segundo capítulo é um capítulo histórico sobre a Taxa de Juros Praticada no Brasil de 1990 a 2010. Neste capítulo, buscou-se construir um histórico da taxa de juros brasileira, fazendo-se uma comparação entre as taxas de juros praticadas pelos principais bancos privados brasileiros (nacionais e estrangeiros) Bradesco, Itaú, Santander e HSBC no Brasil, nos EUA, na Espanha e na Inglaterra. Neste mesmo capítulo procurou-se investigar quais os principais impactos da prática de altas taxas de juros sobre o desenvolvimento econômico brasileiro. E no final deste capítulo, realizou-se um breve estudo sobre a questão jurídica por trás das altas taxas de juros em prática no Brasil na atualidade. O terceiro capítulo chama-se: Bancos Nacionais Públicos: Soluções com Taxa de Juros Subsidiada e Microcrédito, e procura entender o papel dos bancos públicos no cenário creditício brasileiro. Para tanto, avaliou-se caso a caso, o papel das principais instituições públicas fornecedoras de crédito. Entre as principais conclusões tem-se que os bancos estrangeiros não pressionaram para baixo a taxa de juros como foi suposto quando da abertura financeira. Este papel cabe aos bancos públicos que, no contexto brasileiro, possuem poder de mercado suficiente para exercer influência sobre a taxa de juros final e o spread, garantindo portanto a eficiência na transmissão da política monetária

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo analisar a persistência inflacionária no Brasil entre 1999 e 2016, isto é, investigar as suas causas, seus mecanismos e estimar o seu grau. A hipótese geral é que há um grau significativo de resiliência na inflação mesmo após a implantação do regime de metas, o que dá indícios de que existem causas de pressão inflacionária que estão sendo desconsideradas. De forma a responder à pergunta “por que a inflação ainda tem persistência no Brasil?” e cumprir o objetivo, este estudo se constrói em perspectiva tanto teórica quanto empírica. Em um primeiro momento, realiza uma revisão de literatura entre as abordagens convencional, keynesiana e estruturalista do processo inflacionário, de modo a compreender as diferenças entre os postulados teóricos destas vertentes e, posteriormente, introduz aos conceitos de persistência. Em seguida, são discutidas as várias fontes de inflação (sejam elas relacionadas ao agregado monetário ou não), a evolução das expectativas, a eficácia da taxa de juros como instrumento de política antiinflacionária e algumas políticas não-monetárias que contribuem para a estabilidade de preços. Por fim, através de estimadores GPH, Whittle, Expoente de Hurst e um modelo autorregressivo de integração fracionada (ARFIMA), é estimado o grau de tal resiliência no caso brasileiro. / The present study aims to analyze the inflationary persistence in Brazil between 1999 and 2016, which means to investigate its causes, its mechanisms and to estimate its degree. The general hypothesis is that there is a significant degree of resilience in inflation even after the implementation of the targets, which gives indications that there are causes of inflationary pressures being disregarded. In order to answer the question “Why is inflation still persistent in Brazil?” and fulfill its goal, this work is built on both theoretical and empirical perspective. At first, it performs a literature review between the conventional, keynesian and structuralist approaches of inflationary process, in order to understand the differences among the theoretical postulates of these strands and later introduces to the concepts of persistence. Next, the various sources of inflation (whether them related to the monetary aggregate or not), the evolution of expectations, the effectiveness of the interest rate as an instrument of anti-inflationary policy and some non-monetary policies that contribute to price stability are discussed. Finally, through GPH and Whittle estimators, Hurst Exponent and an autoregressive fractionally integrated model (ARFIMA), it is estimated the degree of such resilience in the Brazilian case.