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[en] UNCERTAINTY MEASURES AND THEIR IMPACTS ON FORECASTING THE BRAZILIAN OUTPUT GAP / [pt] MEDIDAS DE INCERTEZA E SEUS IMPACTOS NA PREVISÃO DO HIATO DO PRODUTO BRASILEIROILAN SAMPAIO PARNES 26 December 2018 (has links)
[pt] A incerteza é um fator relevante na modelagem de variáveis macroeconômi-cas, especialmente em países emergentes. Neste estudo, tentamos entender se me-didas de incerteza oriundas do mercado brasileiro podem melhorar as projeções de PIB do país. Traçando uma curva IS da forma mais simples possível: relacionando o hiato do produto a suas primeiras defasagens e aos juros reais ex-ante, podemos adicionar medidas de incerteza e atestar se estas melhoram as projeções de hiato realizadas para o período imediatamente subsequente. Como medidas de incerte-za, utilizamos a dispersão de expectativas do boletim Focus para PIB e inflação; a volatilidade implícita dos contratos futuros de câmbio; o VIX; a volatilidade observada nas empresas mais relevantes do índice Bovespa e o Índice de Incerteza Econômica (IIE-Br). Conseguimos demonstrar com um exercício de backtest que a previsão de hiatos do PIB se torna melhor com a inclusão de variáveis de incerteza na curva IS. / [en] Uncertainty is a relevant matter when modelling economic variables, especially in emerging countries. Here, we try to understand if measures of uncertainty observed in the Brazilian market allow us to improve GDP forecasting. By defining an IS curve as simply as possible: relating current output gap with its lags and the economy s ex-ante real interest rate, it is possible to introduce an uncertainty measure and examine if the forecasting exercise improves in the next period. As proxies for uncertainty, we shall use dispersion of financial markets expectations for future inflation and future output growth; FX future contracts implied volatility; VIX Index; observed volatility in Brazil s most relevant companies stock prices, and; the Economy Uncertainty Index (IIE-Br). We were able to demonstrate through a backtest exercise that the insertion of uncertainty measures in the IS curve improves the output gap forecasting.
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Användandet av Facebook inom högre utbildning : En fallstudie om studenters användning av Facebook / The use of Facebook in higher education. : A case study on students use of FacebookMelik, Narin January 2017 (has links)
Facebook är idag världens största sociala nätverk och är även den sociala plattform som visat sig vara populärast bland studenter. Syftet med denna studie är att ge en inblick i hur dagens generation studenter använder sig av Facebook i relation till sin utbildning. Studien riktar sig till den högre utbildningen och har avgränsats till att belysa hur studenter från det systemvetenskapliga programmet och juristprogrammet har tillämpat användandet av Facebook. En fallstudie med kvalitativa metoder genomfördes där 9 individuella intervjuer har gjorts. Tidigare forskningsresultat inom samma ämnesområde tillsammans med teoretiska utgångspunkter utgjorde grunden för analysen. Detta analyserades sedan i relation till det intervjumaterial som samlats in. Befintliga teorier har kunnat testats och tolkats i relation till intervjumaterialet. Studien resulterade i en riklig beskrivning kring hur studenter använder Facebook och den inverkan användandet kan ha. Studenter samarbetar, utbyter information och delar med sig av sina färdigheter från deras erfarenheter till varandra. Studenterna kan på så vis ta till sig informellt lärande som bidrar till den formella utbildningen och underlätta studiearbetet hemifrån. Resultatet som framkom från denna studie återspeglar och styrker även resultat från tidigare undersökningar som gjorts inom samma ämnesområde. / Facebook is today the world's largest social network and is also the platform that has proved to be the most popular among students. The purpose of this study is therefore to provide an insight into how today's generation of students use Facebook in relation to their education. The research question addressed how students in Sweden who study the system science program and the law program have used Facebook in their education. A case study with a total of nine interviews were conducted. Previous research results in the same subject area and theoretical starting points provided the basis for the analysis and were analysed in relation to the interview material. Existing theories have been tested and interpreted in relation to the interview material. The result of the study provided a deeper insight into how students use Facebook and the impact the use may have. Students collaborate, exchange information and share their skills from their experiences to each other and can through interaction with their classmates on Facebook, take on informal learning which contributes to the formal education as well as it can facilitate theirs studies from home. Several of the results obtained from this study reflect and support the results of previous studies.
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Att bygga ett stabilt IS : Vilka är framgångsfaktorerna?Neergaard-Möller, Annette, Nilsson, Margaretha, Johansson, Carita January 2008 (has links)
Strategier för informationsförsörjning inom organisationer är en viktig stödjande kompo-nent tillsammans med andra strategier som rör verksamheten. För en optimal informa-tionsförsörjning krävs strategisk samsyn från alla delar i verksamheten, ett gott ledarskap och goda förutsättningar för medarbetarna. Vi har genomfört uppsatsarbetet med utgångspunkt i tre olika perspektiv; lednings-, pro-cess- och användarperspektiv, vilka tillsammans är betydelsefulla för informationsförsörj-ningen i en organisation. Forskningsfrågornas inriktning har rört sig kring informationssystemens betydelse inom en verksamhet och syftet med arbetet har varit: • Att finna framgångsfaktorer och deras driv- och motkrafter för fullgod informa-tionsförsörjning genom att undersöka hur systemen för informationsförsörjning i ett företag strategiskt ansluter till företagets övergripande mål, är integrerade med varandra och processerna samt är ett verktyg för effektivt utnyttjande av användarna. Metoden i uppsatsen grundas i systemsynsättet, som anger att summan av delarna är mer än delarna för sig – en synergi uppträder. När vi översatt detta till informationsförsörjning inom en organisation visas bilden av att ju fler system som är integrerade och ju fler funk-tioner som samverkar, desto större blir effektiviteten i informationsförsörjningen. Under-sökningens empiri hämtas ur intervjuer, genomgång av verksamhetsdokument samt en en-kätundersökning. Vår undersökning identifierar en rad framgångsfaktorer – indikatorer – som brutits ner och beskrivits som driv- respektive motkrafter, som ger olika effekter inom organisationer. I ljuset av dessa indikatorer har vi funnit att det inom vårt studieobjekt, Företaget, finns förbättringsmöjligheter genom att verksamhetsledningen i högre grad fokuserar på IS/IT-frågor i organisationen. Det finns ett behov av att implementera IS-strategi och forma tydlig IS/IT-arkitektur och IT-infrastruktur inom Företaget, liksom en kvalitetssäkring av informationshanteringen inom verksamheten. De bärande informationssystemen – affärssystemet SAP och ledningssystemet QLM - inom verksamheten kräver en mer långtgående integrering mellan varandra och andra system för informationsförsörjning. Slutligen bör systemanvändarnas förutsättningar genom utbildning och support förbättras. Undersökningen har dels resulterat i identifiering av systemanvändaren som en reglerande dimension inom en verksamhets informationsförsörjning, dels en vägledande analysmodell. Denna analysmodell bygger på de indikatorer med driv- och motkrafter som identifierats inom undersökningens teoretiska och empiriska bidrag. Den utarbetade analysmodellen kan användas som grund för framtida forskning som rör informationslogistik i organisationer.
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CREATING HIGH-VALUE REAL-WORLD IMPACT THROUGH SYSTEMATIC PROGRAMS OF RESEARCHNunamaker, Jay F., Twyman, Nathan W., Giboney, Justin Scott, Briggs, Robert O. 06 1900 (has links)
An ongoing conversation in the Information Systems literature addresses the concern, "How can we conduct research that makes a difference?" A shortage of high-impact research will, over time, challenge the identity and weaken the viability of IS as an academic discipline. This paper presents the systematic high-impact research model (SHIR), an approach to conducting high-impact research. SHIR embodies the insight gained from three streams of high-impact research programs spanning more than 50 years. The SHIR framework rests on the proposition that IS researchers can produce higher-impact contributions by developing long-term research programs around major real-world issues, as opposed to ad hoc projects addressing a small piece of a large problem. These persistent research programs focus on addressing the entirety of an issue, by leveraging multidisciplinary, multiuniversity research centers that employ a breadth of research methods and large-scale projects. To function effectively, SHIR programs must be sustained by academic and practitioner partnerships, research centers, and outreach activities. We argue that SHIR research programs increase the likelihood of high impact research.
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Přístupy k inovacím podnikových informačních systémů / Approaches to the enterprise information systems innovationDvořák, Zdeněk January 2008 (has links)
The thesis deals with problems of the IS/ICT innovation strategic management in the surroundings of the Czech Republic and participates in solutions to the three-year research project GA201/08/663 -- Information systems innovation to support competitiveness of enterprises. This project has been realized at the Faculty of Information Science and Statistics at the University of Economics, Prague in support of the Czech Science Foundation since 1st January 2008. Thesis sequence to the project consists in filling of particular priorities defined for 1st year of research. Of course this fact represents determining aspect of thesis main goals definition. Firstly, carry out a research on actual level of information systems in Czech enterprises forcefully into the IS/ICT innovation. Secondly, set up working paper for presentation of continuous outcomes after the introductory phase by appearances at scientific conferences, by articles in scientific papers and by findings'publication at a website of the Czech Society for System Integration. Structure of the thesis, which consists of a theoretical and a practical part, specifies methods of goals'filling. The theoretical part represents introduction to problems -- it covers identification of key elements influencing IS/ICT innovation in surrounding of the modern knowledge economy, IS/ICT innovation classification and detailed statement of IS/ICT innovation management process, which is based on methods of strategic management process in general. The practical part gives attention to questionnaire research -- structure of the questionnaire, research methodology and answer evaluation. Contribution of the thesis, together with filling of particular goals of the research project GA201/08/663 -- Information systems innovation to support competitiveness of enterprises, consists in multidimensional view of the specific problems. IS/ICT innovation is seen not only from an enterprise informatics point of view, but also from an entire enterprise angle when economic aspect is also taken into account. This approach accents support task of informatics -- the IS/ICT contribute to the filling of enterprise's goals.
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Audit IS - teorie a praxe / IS Audit - Theory and PracticeFišera, Martin January 2013 (has links)
The thesis covers the issue of IS audit in all its breadth. On the basis that this is a very complex area, it was necessary to divide the work into several logical and subsequent chapters. Quality and audit are the key words for this job. Therefore is them given the whole first chapter that chronologically describes the evolution of these concepts. Interpretation of quality is widely described since the Greece and Rome ancient, through Total Quality Management approach to the current understanding of the normative frameworks issued by ISO. There is the term audit continuously followed in the chapter of the concept of quality, whose development is also described in detail in chronological order starting from the reading public accounts to the current form of IS audit. Especially, we focus on development of the definition of audit and the relationship between the financial audits and IS. The second - last - part of the chapter is devoted to a detailed description of the reasons for the application of IS audit in practice. Because of the large specifications of the IS audit is this characteristic position in practice given the second chapter. This chapter contains not only description of the characteristics but also a brief outline of the issue of outsourcing and CloudComputing in relation to the audit of IS. The third chapter is devoted to a normative base of IS audit. Due to a large number of normative frameworks there are analysed only selected representatives in the chapter. These include the ISO / IEC 20000, COBIT, ITIL and others. They are thoroughly described, evaluated and compared to other possibly relevant for the definition of relations and benefit evaluation. The last chapter deals with design process of IS audit at a conceptual level. The aim is to freely continue on the normative base discussed in the previous chapter and a simple, versatile, easily applicable and adaptable IS audit process regarding defined limits.
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Návrh procesů a infrastruktury informačních systémů pro splnění strategických cílů projektově řízené společnosti / Desing processes and IS infrastructure to fulfill strategic goals of project-based companyRys, Jaromír January 2012 (has links)
Competition in the market for small software companies is high and given the current global economic crisis, it is important for these companies to gain competitive advantage in the market. One of the weaknesses of the studied company is insufficiently described processes and thus possible areas of the process which are not properly or sufficiently supported by current IS infrastructure. The aim of this thesis is to analyse the process of project-based company that uses agile methodologies for software development and based on the results of process analysis to assess the current state of IT support processes with regard to the strategic objectives of the company to design the new IS infrastructure. To perform the process analysis, I used the Methodology for Modeling and Analysis of Business Process (MMABP). Subsequently, the processes identified in the analysis process were analysed from the perspective of the strategic objectives of the company and also in terms of their support in the current IS infrastructure. Based on these analyses, were identified areas of the processes that have poor or no support, at all. In the epilogue, I proposed modification of the existing infrastructure IS, where all the process will have the appropriate information support. The biggest changes were in support of business processes, where a new CRM system was proposed and a new intranet portal was introduced, which should cover the first phase of particularly poor information support of the current processes in the field of human resources management.
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IS-LM Stability Revisited: Samuelson was Right, Modigliani was Wrong / La estabilidad de la IS-LM revisitada: Samuelson estaba en lo cierto, Modligiani equivocadoMendoza, Waldo 10 April 2018 (has links)
In Hicks’s IS-LM model, where it is assumed that production is determined in the goods marketand the interest rate is determined in the money market, when the marginal propensity to spend is greater than one, the IS has a positive slope. Modigliani (1944), Varian (1977) and Sargent (1987) determined that in this special case the IS-LM model is stable when the LM slope isgreater than the IS.In line with Samuelson (1941), this article shows that in this case the model is stable when the IS slope is greater than the LM slope. However, in this stable case the model does not have a useful economic meaning.One solution to this theoretical problem is to abandon the Keynesian adjustment mechanism and replace it with the Classical mechanism where the interest rate is determined in the goods market and production is determined in the money market. In this case, the IS-LM model is stable when the LM is steeper than the IS. / En el modelo IS-LM de Hicks, en el que se asume que la producción se determina en el mercado de bienes y la tasa de interés en el mercado de dinero, cuando la propensión marginal a gastar es mayor que uno, la IS tiene pendiente positiva. Modigliani (1944), Varian (1977) y Sargent (1987), determinaron que en este caso especial el modelo IS-LM es estable cuando la pendiente de la LM es mayor que la de la IS.En línea con Samuelson (1941), este artículo muestra que en este caso especial el modelo es estable cuando la pendiente de la IS es mayor que la de la LM. Sin embargo, en este caso estable, el modelo no tiene un significado económico útil.Una solución a este problema teórico es abandonar el mecanismo de ajuste keynesiano y reemplazarlo por el mecanismo clásico, donde la tasa de interés se determina en el mercado de bienes y la producción en el mercado de dinero. En este caso el modelo IS-LM es estable cuando la LM es más empinada que la IS.
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The influence on masticatory performance of jaw movements, chewing side preference, occlusal contacf area, muscle activity and jaw tremorWilding, R.J.C. January 1996 (has links)
Doctor Scientiae (Odontology) - DSc(Odont) / The primary function of the jaws and teeth in mammals is chewing and swallowing. In man there are additional functions of speech, non-verbal communication and cosmetic appeal. Chewing is a complex operation requiring both adequate skeletal structures, and a well
co-ordinated muscle system. There is considerable variation in both these components of chewing within which adequate function appears to be possible, at least for a modern refined diet. For example, the dental arches may not conform to the modal arrangement and teeth may be missing, yet adequate function remains (Slagter et al 1993). There are unfortunately no baseline requirements for an adequate dentition nor the minimal chewing performance necessary to avoid indigestion. A common rule of thumb when replacing missing posterior teeth is that
the extent of the prosthesis can be reduced to the premolars without seriously affecting chewing (Kayser, 1984). This arbitrary estimation has not been defined by a minimum area for functioning posterior occlusal surfaces. The same lack of quantifiable measurement is a feature of assessing orthodontic treatment goals and outcomes (Omar, McEwen and Ogston 1987). The clinical rules for correcting malocclusions, usually, have more to do with the restoration of modal tooth, arch and skeletal relationships, than with the restoration of function; if
restoration of function is a concern of treatment, it is not measurable in the same way that tooth positions can be assessed on plaster casts or angles measured on a radiograph. Muscle tenderness and limited movement are both features of temporomandibular dysfunction. The boundary between normal subjects, who may have some signs of dysfunction and patients, who may not have distinctly more severe signs cannot always be made (Widmar 1992). By some definitions based on the morphology of the joint structures, even symptomless individuals could be categorised as abnormal. One of the difficulties in assessing functional incapacity of a patient with muscle pain is the absence of the same baseline data needed to assess malocclusion, or the handicap due to reduced occlusal area. It is encouraging to find that a simple test, such as measuring maximum opening, is a useful indicator of treatment progress in temporomandibular dysfunction. This sign, although simple and of limited diagnostic use, reflects the poverty of useful tests for masticatory function.
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Informační systém pro podporu návrhu kamerových systémů / Information system for suport of design of camera systemsHronek, Pavel January 2011 (has links)
This thesis describes the design and implementation of information system for company Patrokolos s.r.o., dealing with wireless links for CCTV and security systems. Information system enables its users to record data about custommers, entered into the system and assign them a new contract, they may suggest using an integrated graphical interface. It allows to work with information of produced units. Based on the topology of the proposed contract enabled the implemented system to build configuration skript for Mikrotik OS, which then loaded into the unit. The information system is implemented in PHP 5 in cooperation with the MySQL database system 5.1.
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